Chafin to Brewers

[JefferyLeonard]

4 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

I'll have to look for it. I'm confused why the hell we're Upset about trading a 28 year old rookie who apparently have a big fastball...at 92.5MPH while upset about trading for a veteran LHPer like Chaffin who has been a very good reliever...but is a soft tosser...at 92.1 MPH. 

Also...why we're talking about the Brewers. 

I'm not like most people, I don't judge trades on what the return was. That's essentially irrelevant to me. I mean, the lessor the return(which is really a projection anyway), the lessor the player you get back typically. I look at trades from a production stand point in who they are getting, and making an estimation on how much that player(s), move the needle. 

A lot here are fine with the 3 trades they made simply because they didn't give up anything to get them. Never mind the players they got really and truly likely only make a small difference in this years team and their chances. That's fine if that's the way you want to look at things, by all means do so. I take a different perspective. I simply don't care what the "future" POTENTIALLY looks like. Not a single one of us can predict it. Hell I may not even be around to see much of the "future" anyway, who knows? 

 

[Oxy]

6 minutes ago, JefferyLeonard said:

The thing is, there is likely never going to be a title if at some point you don't "go for it". Remember the 82 Brewers? Holy hell was that year fun, the trades Harry Dalton pulled off...I'd love a deadline like that again in Brewer history. They didn't win a WS obviously, but damn was that year fun, and the players they acquired will never be forgotten. Don Sutton, Rollie Fingers, Ted Simmons, Pete Vuckovich. Damn! I do remember people fretting some about trading the "hot" brewers prospect David Greene. How'd he turn out? 

I disagree.  I think it SEEMS that way, but I don't think there is much truth to it.  But that's okay.  You might be right.

[Brewcrew82]

5 minutes ago, JefferyLeonard said:

I'm not like most people

 

Now we're getting somewhere....

[duewizard]

6 minutes ago, Oxy said:

Instructionally, hover over the posters name, and an option button to ignore will pop-up.

Thanks. Was about to ask how does one do that

[Thurston Fluff]

1 minute ago, JefferyLeonard said:

I'm not like most people, I don't judge trades on what the return was. That's essentially irrelevant to me. I mean, the lessor the return(which is really a projection anyway), the lessor the player you get back typically. I look at trades from a production stand point in who they are getting, and making an estimation on how much that player(s), move the needle. 

A lot here are fine with the 3 trades they made simply because they didn't give up anything to get them. Never mind the players they got really and truly likely only make a small difference in this years team and their chances. That's fine if that's the way you want to look at things, by all means do so. I take a different perspective. I simply don't care what the "future" POTENTIALLY looks like. Not a single one of us can predict it. Hell I may not even be around to see much of the "future" anyway, who knows? 

 

 

But we can predict that going for it works? I think we all get you don't care about watching a craptastic team for the next five years as long as the team goes for it now. That has been well established. What I think many of us are trying to get across to you is how little major trades change the odds of winning now.

[BrewerFan]

12 minutes ago, JefferyLeonard said:

Yes, I would take that in a heartbeat. I lived through all the Brewers crappiness, and the Packers crappiness too. It's no fun having crappy teams, I admit that, but if the payoff is a title or two, during that time, I will take it. Look at the Bucks, went all in, won a title, got bounced in the 1st round this year, doesn't phase me one bit(although admittedly, I am less of a Bucks fan then Brewers or Packers).

The thing is, there is likely never going to be a title if at some point you don't "go for it". Remember the 82 Brewers? Holy hell was that year fun, the trades Harry Dalton pulled off...I'd love a deadline like that again in Brewer history. They didn't win a WS obviously, but damn was that year fun, and the players they acquired will never be forgotten. Don Sutton, Rollie Fingers, Ted Simmons, Pete Vuckovich. Damn! I do remember people fretting some about trading the "hot" brewers prospect David Greene. How'd he turn out? 

Pretty sure ONE of those players was a deadline deal. 

 

It's amusing to me how you're simultaneously upset about trading for a really good reliever for...no discernible reason, but also upset about NOT trading for...someone else. Who's that someone? Don't know.

And when it comes to trade deadline talks, talking about prospects who were busts is the lowest form of "debate" IMO. Because David Green wasn't great, we should trade Jackson Chourio! That....makes absolutely no sense, but sure. 

[adambr2]

The Brewers know exactly what we know. They aren't talented enough, especially on offense, to make a deep playoff run likely, but they have some pieces a year or two away that are pretty promising. 

So their strategy reflects that, low cost moves with really no risk that might patch up the really weak points, but nothing major. They know they're probably not going anywhere and weren't one major piece away from becoming anything close to the NL favorite. They did enough to at least give them a shot at the division and see what happens from there. 

I think it's more likely than not that Burnes is on the move in the offseason.

[BrewerFan]

8 minutes ago, JefferyLeonard said:

I'm not like most people, I don't judge trades on what the return was. That's essentially irrelevant to me. I mean, the lessor the return(which is really a projection anyway), the lessor the player you get back typically. I look at trades from a production stand point in who they are getting, and making an estimation on how much that player(s), move the needle. 

A lot here are fine with the 3 trades they made simply because they didn't give up anything to get them. Never mind the players they got really and truly likely only make a small difference in this years team and their chances. That's fine if that's the way you want to look at things, by all means do so. I take a different perspective. I simply don't care what the "future" POTENTIALLY looks like. Not a single one of us can predict it. Hell I may not even be around to see much of the "future" anyway, who knows? 

 

You realize projection and estimation are the same things, right?

And with respect, that YOU may not be around to see what the Brewers do with all their young prospects, Chourio, Misiorowski, Quero, Black, Frelick, etc...that's not a good reason to just trade them.

 

Your comments about the dismissiveness about the "FUTURE" which is in quotes for some reason(it is a real thing and not just some abstract theory)...is too much for me to even address. 

[BrewerFan]

3 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

The Brewers know exactly what we know. They aren't talented enough, especially on offense, to make a deep playoff run likely, but they have some pieces a year or two away that are pretty promising. 

So their strategy reflects that, low cost moves with really no risk that might patch up the really weak points, but nothing major. They know they're probably not going anywhere and weren't one major piece away from becoming anything close to the NL favorite. They did enough to at least give them a shot at the division and see what happens from there. 

I think it's more likely than not that Burnes is on the move in the offseason.

It'd be poor management for Burnes to not be on the move IMO. It'd also be poor management to not trade Woodruff IF he comes back to form and pitches like he has the last several years. 

I do think the Brewers were aggressive, but these prices were EXTREMELY high. There were a lot of Eloy Jiminez rumors. Then you see they're demanding Jackson Holiday back for Dylan Cease and that Cease, Robert Jr, Jiminez were 3 of their 4 "untouchables." So I'd imagine they were asking for a BIG return for Jiminez.

Brown Jr, maybe Carlos Rodriguez(RHPer) or Gasser and a couple other pieces is about as high as I'd go...and that's pretty expensive IMO.

[Oxy]

1 minute ago, BrewerFan said:

It'd be poor management for Burnes to not be on the move IMO. It'd also be poor management to not trade Woodruff IF he comes back to form and pitches like he has the last several years. 

If they play out their control next year and let Burnes/Woody walk in FA, they will get draft picks, right? So by trading them they'd have to get something quite a bit better than a 1st round comp pick, since they'd also be losing out on Cy Young like production for a year.  This thread is off the rails enough though.

[BrewerFan]

24 minutes ago, Oxy said:

If they play out their control next year and let Burnes/Woody walk in FA, they will get draft picks, right? So by trading them they'd have to get something quite a bit better than a 1st round comp pick, since they'd also be losing out on Cy Young like production for a year.  This thread is off the rails enough though.

All of this is true, but I think it's safe to say that Burnes will bring back quite a bit more than what the QO will. I'd have included Adames in here, but I don't believe that's the case with him.

I think Burnes nets you 2 top 100 and then at least a couple lower rated prospects. 

[82brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, TheeAirbender said:

Calling someone a failed pickup before the trade has even been announced🤣. Some people just want the team to fail

For some, it's just more important to be right and say "I told you so" 

[Austin Tatious]

The Brewers have done a heck of a job making moves without sacrificing the flow of talent with upside in forthcoming years.   I would have hated an overpay for a short term gain.  You want to see that steady stream of talent joining the big league team, and we did not disrupt that, thankfully.  Not every prospect will excel at the MLB level, but it's a numbers game.  Give yourself enough solid prospects, and some will emerge.  If you trade some off, you fall behind in the numbers game.  Short of a Ryan Braun type, there is hardly a guy who is a sure thing.   What you want your franchise to do is make shrewd decisions that keeps you on the right side of the odds.  Take SS, we are looking at Turang, Zamora, Guillarte, Pratt, Eduardo Garcia.  Lot of potential upside.  Odds are you can get at least 1-2 solid shortstops out of that mix, and that's a tough skill set to come by.  

If you do trade away assets, it has to be in favor of value back or a redundancy where you might lose them anyway via Rule 5, etc.

I like our approach that we are maintaining the steady stream and trying to keep our numbers in order.  

[BrewCrew8675309]

Back to Chafin...

this year has odd splits 

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/W	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
Home	22	84	73	12	22	3	2	2	1	1	11	27	2.45	.301	.393	.480	.872	35	1	0	0	0	0	1	.455	142	142
Away	21	66	59	5	9	3	1	1	0	1	7	22	3.14	.153	.242	.288	.531	17	1	0	0	0	0	1	.222	47	44

 

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/W	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
vs RHB	40	90	81	11	15	2	2	3	0	2	9	33	3.67	.185	.267	.370	.637	30	2	0	0	0	0	2	.267	76	75
vs LHB	37	60	51	9	16	4	1	0	1	0	9	16	1.78	.314	.417	.431	.848	22	0	0	0	0	0	0	.457	137	131
vs RHB as LHP	40	90	81	11	15	2	2	3	0	2	9	33	3.67	.185	.267	.370	.637	30	2	0	0	0	0	2	.267	76	68
vs LHB as LHP	37	60	51	9	16	4	1	0	1	0	9	16	1.78	.314	.417	.431	.848	22	0	0	0	0	0	0	.457	137	148

 

Take some heat off of Hoby for sure but also vs RHB is ok. 

ARIZ fans complain that his 9th inning work will hurt the team (think Homer Bush) but when is he closing with the big three and Bryse doing mop-up 9ths anyway??

[Jopal78]

6 hours ago, KeithStone53151 said:

There's not consternation, there's the same guy as usual going against the grain being anti-brewer in his effort to appear as the voice of reason.

What’s your problem? I didn’t even dump on the trade.

Chafin’s been alright, he’s not some elite reliever, and depending what site you consult he’s been about replacement level this year or a little better.  He’ll pitch 20 games for the Brewers and will be with another club next year (unless you think the Brewers are going to pay 7.5 million dollars in ‘24 for a middle reliever).

Strzelecki might be nothing, he might revert to being a 7th - 8th inning guy, who knows? But the D’Backs have five years to find out. 

 

[Brewcrew82]

4 hours ago, BrewCrew8675309 said:

Back to Chafin...

this year has odd splits 

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/W	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
Home	22	84	73	12	22	3	2	2	1	1	11	27	2.45	.301	.393	.480	.872	35	1	0	0	0	0	1	.455	142	142
Away	21	66	59	5	9	3	1	1	0	1	7	22	3.14	.153	.242	.288	.531	17	1	0	0	0	0	1	.222	47	44

 

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	SO/W	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
vs RHB	40	90	81	11	15	2	2	3	0	2	9	33	3.67	.185	.267	.370	.637	30	2	0	0	0	0	2	.267	76	75
vs LHB	37	60	51	9	16	4	1	0	1	0	9	16	1.78	.314	.417	.431	.848	22	0	0	0	0	0	0	.457	137	131
vs RHB as LHP	40	90	81	11	15	2	2	3	0	2	9	33	3.67	.185	.267	.370	.637	30	2	0	0	0	0	2	.267	76	68
vs LHB as LHP	37	60	51	9	16	4	1	0	1	0	9	16	1.78	.314	.417	.431	.848	22	0	0	0	0	0	0	.457	137	148

 

Take some heat off of Hoby for sure but also vs RHB is ok. 

ARIZ fans complain that his 9th inning work will hurt the team (think Homer Bush) but when is he closing with the big three and Bryse doing mop-up 9ths anyway??

So basically a good thing we don't play at Arizona for the rest of the season...

[CheeseheadInQC]

5 hours ago, JefferyLeonard said:

I'm not like most people, I don't judge trades on what the return was. That's essentially irrelevant to me. I mean, the lessor the return(which is really a projection anyway), the lessor the player you get back typically. I look at trades from a production stand point in who they are getting, and making an estimation on how much that player(s), move the needle. 

A lot here are fine with the 3 trades they made simply because they didn't give up anything to get them. Never mind the players they got really and truly likely only make a small difference in this years team and their chances. That's fine if that's the way you want to look at things, by all means do so. I take a different perspective. I simply don't care what the "future" POTENTIALLY looks like. Not a single one of us can predict it. Hell I may not even be around to see much of the "future" anyway, who knows? 

 

The problem is, there was only one hitter a half tier above the guys the Brewers acquired who was dealt. No stars did. San Diego bought. St. Louis sold the bare minimum. The White Sox weren’t dealing Robert. 

[Robocaller]

11 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

It'd be poor management for Burnes to not be on the move IMO. It'd also be poor management to not trade Woodruff IF he comes back to form and pitches like he has the last several years. 

I do think the Brewers were aggressive, but these prices were EXTREMELY high. There were a lot of Eloy Jiminez rumors. Then you see they're demanding Jackson Holiday back for Dylan Cease and that Cease, Robert Jr, Jiminez were 3 of their 4 "untouchables." So I'd imagine they were asking for a BIG return for Jiminez.

Brown Jr, maybe Carlos Rodriguez(RHPer) or Gasser and a couple other pieces is about as high as I'd go...and that's pretty expensive IMO.

ONLY if they get a good return. Not a guarantee.

 

[BrewerFan]

10 minutes ago, Robocaller said:

ONLY if they get a good return. Not a guarantee.

 

I think it's pretty close to a guarantee.

Why wouldn't we get a good return for this outside of injury?

[Jake McKibbin]

12 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

I think it's pretty close to a guarantee.

Why wouldn't we get a good return for this outside of injury?

I'd imagine so, you can already see certain teams really wanting that starting pitching. unsure about Rangers system, they may even try and extend him given DeGrom's injuries, definitely fits Dodgers needs, heck even Red Sox may try. ots of big market teams that will want high calibre pitching, and a bidding war would be awesome

[BrewerFan]

51 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

I'd imagine so, you can already see certain teams really wanting that starting pitching. unsure about Rangers system, they may even try and extend him given DeGrom's injuries, definitely fits Dodgers needs, heck even Red Sox may try. ots of big market teams that will want high calibre pitching, and a bidding war would be awesome

The Phillies another. There are a slew of teams that I can think of that could build a package around one high upside pitcher(the Phillies I've thrown out Painter who's under the knife for TJ right now IIRC) Mcfarland and then a couple of lower level power arms who maybe have some issues throwing strikes or what have you. Guys who the Brewers usually develop and can do something with. 

That's a team that matches up in my mind because they still have two other HIGH ceiling young arms who are #1 and #4 in their system and there's a little more risk with Painter which means we may get more back in return.

Same goes for the Rangers with a guy like Lieter and then a whole slew of power arms who are missing a 3rd pitch or they're throwing 4-5 pitches, but don't have that legitimate 3rd pitch.

 

A team that can afford a pitcher and has young arms, they make the most sense.

 

Hell, the Padres. They may be willing to give up Lesko and Snelling. Lesko another guy coming off TJ, just getting back into the groove and Snelling has a vaguely similar profile to Gasser...and we know the Padres are seemingly indifferent to building a farm system. 

 

The goal should be to just build up the system next year as much as possible, try and add some power arms, let the pitching lab do what they can with them, and then hopefully start graduating them as Chourio and company are coming through and hope you hit on a starting pitcher or two with some young guys coming up behind them or...now available for trade.

[bigred]

13 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Now we're getting somewhere....

Sounds like you think not being like everyone else is a bad thing. Thinking outside the box is a gift. Some of the smartest and most influential people the world has even known, were people who think outside the box. 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

34 minutes ago, bigred said:

Sounds like you think not being like everyone else is a bad thing. Thinking outside the box is a gift. Some of the smartest and most influential people the world has even known, were people who think outside the box. 

[KeithStone53151]

11 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

What’s your problem? I didn’t even dump on the trade.

Chafin’s been alright, he’s not some elite reliever, and depending what site you consult he’s been about replacement level this year or a little better.  He’ll pitch 20 games for the Brewers and will be with another club next year (unless you think the Brewers are going to pay 7.5 million dollars in ‘24 for a middle reliever).

Strzelecki might be nothing, he might revert to being a 7th - 8th inning guy, who knows? But the D’Backs have five years to find out. 

 

First, I want to note that I didn't mention you by name...yet you seemed to know exactly who I was talking about.

There's much more that goes into analyzing a reliever to determine whether an option will be picked up and you know that. Over his career he's been about a 1 WAR reliever, which for a reliever is pretty solid. He's had only one or two true down years in his career, he had a career best year in 2021 only 2 years ago. If you cherry pick a couple metrics...and only for 2023 while ignoring his prior success...yeah I guess he looks a bit like a middle reliever. If you open your eyes just a little bit more...and look at the entire picture, he's clearly much better than a middle reliever and will slot in ahead of Milner and among Peguero/Payamps for key innings out of the bullpen.

The thing is, it's very clear you know what you're talking about. This is why I keep saying you don't argue in good faith, because I believe you see the entire picture and choose to ignore it...cherry pick the most anti-brewer version possible...and run with that story. If your goal is to rile up users on the forums and be the maximum buzzkill you can be, I mean I guess that's probably effective to a degree for some of the users.

[Playing Catch]

Wow, when I logged on this morning, I really didn't think this was going to be the trade-thread with all the bickering!

I like to think that I put posters "on ignore" in my mind. Once I've done that, it's easier to not take them so seriously. Heck, Jeffrey Leonard probably has a healthier relationship to baseball than I do, as it clearly is only something that brings him some casual entertainment, including being able to post his opinions here.

I, on the other hand, am an obsessive; I'm probably close to the fringes of unhealthy, LOL. If Jeffrey doesn't mind mortgaging the future of the franchise because they won't miss winning baseball when it's gone, well, that's the kind of fan they are, which is fine. Who among us don't enjoy the idea of the "big score," putting all one's betting budget on the longshot to win?