Marlins (Luzardo) vs Brewers (Woodruff): 9/11/23, 6:40pm

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, RobertCrawley said:

It feels a little like desperation for a team that's 3 games in the lead with 20 left to play. Donaldson's last good season was 2019, when he hit .259, and his last really good season was 2015, when he hit .297. Also our coaches do not have a great record of improving incoming hitters. But let's see what he can do!

He was good in 2021 when he put up a 126 wRC+.

[TURBO]

6 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

gmLI (game Leverage Index) measures the leverage when a relief pitcher enters the game. Here are Brewers rankings since August 1st, along with their innings pitched...

Devin (2.31 gmLI | 12.1 IP)
Payamps (1.69 gmLI | 14.2 IP)
Peguero (1.48 gmLI | 16.1 IP)
Uribe (1.19 gmLI | 17.0 IP)
Milner (1.09 gmLI | 14.2 IP)
Megill (0.74 gmLI | 11.2 IP)
Wilson (0.73 gmLI | 17.1 IP)
Chafin (0.73 gmLI | 10.1 IP)

Chafin is 8th in gmLI and 8th in IP since August 1st, which to me indicates he was likely acquired to be 8th on the bullpen depth chart. 

If not, he would have been used more often and in higher leverage spots.
 

C'mon man.  You don't always have to be right.  No amount of stats can prove what you said.  You are reaching HUGE on this one.  What else is he 8th in?  Has to be some more stats out there for you to continue on this path of just being wrong...

Seriously, it's ok to be wrong just one single time in your life, no one will think less of you...

[Brewcrew82]

Donaldson has always been a low BABIP guy, but that .076 BABIP he has this year is ridiculous and due for some major regression combined with his QOC #s.

[RobertCrawley]

Just now, Brewcrew82 said:

He was good in 2021 when he put up a 126 wRC+.

Yep, and last year he hit .222, which sadly is as good or better than most of our roster. Some guys do play better out of the big lights of NYC. I guess we'll see.

[Brewcrew82]

We miss Jorge Soler, who has been arguably the Marlins’ best hitter this year, but we still need to be very careful with Jake Burger, especially with runners on.

He’s a guy who can win a close game with his power. 

Otherwise limit Arraez and we should be in good shape. 

[RobertCrawley]

The team from Chicago brought up a prospect for their playoff run. Pete Crow-Armstrong.  I kind of wondered if any of our top prospects were ready.

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, RobertCrawley said:

The team from Chicago brought up a prospect for their playoff run. Pete Crow-Armstrong.  I kind of wondered if any of our top prospects were ready.

Black and Gasser are probably ready. We’ll see. 

[Jake McKibbin]

10 minutes ago, TURBO said:

C'mon man.  You don't always have to be right.  No amount of stats can prove what you said.  You are reaching HUGE on this one.  What else is he 8th in?  Has to be some more stats out there for you to continue on this path of just being wrong...

Seriously, it's ok to be wrong just one single time in your life, no one will think less of you...

Doesn't this provide a fairly good argument that he's right? It's a stat entirely related to how important a situation he's used in, and it's alongside bryse Wilson who often gets middle innings

[tmwiese55]

Nah that's a skewed stat.  Chances are if he didn't suck since arriving he'd have been used in higher leverage spots.   I really don't care about the argument but soon as I read that I thought "uhh not quite".     OF course it still might be true, who knows and I don't care, but I don't think that stat 'proves' it. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

3 hours ago, treego14 said:

Pinch-hitting?   Owen Miller or Brian Anderson?  Why not Anderson occasionally in such situations where some power might be needed?

Turang against lefties is not good.  Anderson against lefties I feel a whole lot better about!

I feel like the Brewers have dissed Brian Anderson unfairly.

From my increasingly distant memories of Brian Andersons' most recent ABs, I'd personally go with Miller as a PH. Agree to disagree, I guess.

When Turang starts vs a lefty, he isn't getting 4 ABs vs that particular pitcher, is my point. And while in the lineup he's also playing defense & playing it much better at 2B than Monasterio or Miller would be. It's something they emphasize, and probably will continue to.

I've been an Anderson fan this year. I love the defense he brings, and was looking forward to his return to the roster when he was out. But I can see why he's gotten buried.

[jerichoholicninja]

I guess I don't get the Donaldson hate. Outside of Billy C, this team is not good at hitting. Sure we could keep running out the same guys who aren't good at hitting or try someone who has a track record of being a good hitter.

[Brewcrew82]

5 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

Nah that's a skewed stat.  Chances are if he didn't suck since arriving he'd have been used in higher leverage spots.   I really don't care about the argument but soon as I read that I thought "uhh not quite".     OF course it still might be true, who knows and I don't care, but I don't think that stat 'proves' it. 

Except he had already been sucking for a bit in AZ so they weren’t immediately going to insert him ahead of any of Devin, Payamps, Uribe, Peguero, Milner, etc.

He’s right imo. Chafin was acquired primarily to be the 2nd LH in the pen/replacement for Justin Wilson, with high leverage a possibility depending on how he performed in lower leverage spots.

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, jerichoholicninja said:

I guess I don't get the Donaldson hate. Outside of Billy C, this team is not good at hitting. Sure we could keep running out the same guys who aren't good at hitting or try someone who has a track record of being a good hitter.

Yelich and Canha are good hitters, too.

But I agree in not understanding the Donaldson hate.

[sveumrules]

28 minutes ago, TURBO said:

C'mon man.  You don't always have to be right.  No amount of stats can prove what you said.  You are reaching HUGE on this one.  What else is he 8th in?  Has to be some more stats out there for you to continue on this path of just being wrong...

Seriously, it's ok to be wrong just one single time in your life, no one will think less of you...

I provided objective information to support my position. 

What objective information supports yours?

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 hour ago, TURBO said:

Right, so he was not acquired to be our 8th option.  That statement was false, as I said previously.

We got him with the intent on being an important part of the bullpen, and it failed.  Admit it and DFA the guy already.  We've seen what he can do, and it is basically nothing,  Doesn't matter which situation we bring him into, he fails. 

They want two LHs in the pen. Who from my list would you prefer?

I have no great compulsion to defend him. Overall he's been a disappointment. But I also like to be accurate. In his last 3 outings before Sunday he's allowed a total of one hit & no runs. Saying he's failed in every situation is false. 

On paper, Gasser would be preferable to me. But if that happens it won't be until N'Ville is done.

[Jake McKibbin]

19 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

Nah that's a skewed stat.  Chances are if he didn't suck since arriving he'd have been used in higher leverage spots.   I really don't care about the argument but soon as I read that I thought "uhh not quite".     OF course it still might be true, who knows and I don't care, but I don't think that stat 'proves' it. 

That makes sense though, if he's performing well you give higher leverage, if struggling less high leverage. Like Payamps and Peguero at the start of the season, they earned their current roles

Could strzelecki have done as well if not better? Probably.

He did hang one pitch last night but he pitched well for the most part, just punished for his one mistake, it happens. For my eye, he's pitching better, but we'll see how the season finishes.

Counsell is using him appropriately for now for sure.

[owbc]

32 minutes ago, RobertCrawley said:

Yep, and last year he hit .222, which sadly is as good or better than most of our roster. Some guys do play better out of the big lights of NYC. I guess we'll see.

The only number he has to beat is 83, which is Owen Miller's OPS+. 

Donaldson should be able to do that in his sleep, while hitting under .200 and striking out in a third of his PAs. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

17 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Yelich and Canha are good hitters, too.

But I agree in not understanding the Donaldson hate.

I understand it, but I think taking a flyer on the guy w/no risk, just to see what he might bring is more than worth it.

He's had a couple of ex-teammates who are with us now. I wonder if their brains were picked before signing him.

[willie key]

We’ve literally lost 1-0 twice and another game that was a no hitter for 10 1/3 innings for burnes.      I don’t give a crap who they bring up at this point.     That’s just pathetic.    We need some offense.     Anderson.      Wiemer.     Turang etc are just not good enough yet

[markedman5]

We gave up Pete Stryzlecki( who had pitched himself to Nashville before getting recalled) to get Chafin…….that should tell you he wasn’t expected to be a high leverage guy for us…….he was a lefty with experience….they hoped he might be better then he was in AZ so he could contribute…….we already had a bunch of guys who were set in the high leverage roles…….

[brewerfan82]

11 minutes ago, willie key said:

We’ve literally lost 1-0 twice and another game that was a no hitter for 10 1/3 innings for burnes.      I don’t give a crap who they bring up at this point.     That’s just pathetic.    We need some offense.     Anderson.      Wiemer.     Turang etc are just not good enough yet

They've also won 1-0 three times (and shutout the opponent an additional 9 other times, while scoring more, sometimes many more, than 1 run). I'm not sure that's really a high number on either side of the ball for 1-0 games. They've scored at least 6 runs in 21 of their last 39 games (54%). By contrast the Braves have done that 22 times in their last 39. This team is certainly capable of putting up runs and have done it quite often since the trade deadline. They could definitely be a bit more consistent, but there is going to be a game here and there that a team loses 1-0.

All that said, I'm with ya on the sentiment that there's room to improve at specific roster spots. Let's hope they catch lightning in a bottle with Donaldson starting tonight! :)

[Jim French Stepstool]

So if nothing else, I've learned the definition of not imminent. It means "Very likely to happen, unless I can talk Matt Arnold out of it in the next 24 hours, or at least be assured Brian Anderson still has a roster spot".

 

[markedman5]

 

[LouisEly]

1 hour ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

I have no great compulsion to defend him. Overall he's been a disappointment. But I also like to be accurate. In his last 3 outings before Sunday he's allowed a total of one hit & no runs. Saying he's failed in every situation is false.

I didn't read or participate in Sunday's IGT, but if part of the angst over Chafin is what happened in the 13th inning yesterday, all I have to say is that putting him in the game with a runner on 2B, nobody out, 1B open, and Giancarlo Stanton at the plate isn't setting him up for success.  Why Stanton wasn't intentionally walked there is beyond me.

[RobertCrawley]

10 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

I didn't read or participate in Sunday's IGT, but if part of the angst over Chafin is what happened in the 13th inning yesterday, all I have to say is that putting him in the game with a runner on 2B, nobody out, 1B open, and Giancarlo Stanton at the plate isn't setting him up for success.  Why Stanton wasn't intentionally walked there is beyond me.

Leaving a belt high hanger didn't help either.