Brewers and Chourio: Heyman reports 8 years, $80 million + 2 club option years

[sveumrules]

33 minutes ago, SeaBass said:

Because you know how he ended up. Keep sending me these alley oops.

Before graduating from prospect status at age 22, Hiura was ranked #20, #17, and #6 by MLB, BA and BPro.

His bat was viewed as “can’t miss” but his glove ultimately limited his perceived ceiling and prevented him from reaching the level of prospect status Jackson has achieved being consensus Top 3 at age 19.

Of course, prospect status alone doesn’t guarantee future results in MLB, but college bat no glove second baseman and tooled up teenage CF are just two completely different profiles.

[SeaBass]

35 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Except it has nothing to do with how he ended up...No alley ooping necessary.

Julio Rodriguez, Ronald Acuna Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr., etc. Those are the players who have accomplished what Chourio has at his age. Hiura was at UC-Irvine at 19. 

We're you even paying attention to how people felt about Hiura his first year? It has nothing to do with his prospect status because he was already doing it in the majors. People were irate that they sent him back down for service time manipulation, how if they missed the playoffs it would be because they did that. About a rookie. There were discussions about if we would trade Hiura for Jacob deGrom and folks were flipping out that someone would even suggest it, that Hiura was the best thing to happen to the Brewers since the Braun/Fielder years. It's 100% revisionist to suggest people weren't absolutely crazy about him and would have lost their minds in happiness if the Brewers threw $100 million dollars at him to lock him up long term.

27 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

They can't pay that? Which means you're trading a (potential) superstar at 25 like the Nats had to do with Soto. And less chances at a WS...

Right, I understand that. And that's if he works out which isn't a given. Or he doesn't have some disastrous injury. That's why I'm saying I'd love it if he ends up being amazing for multiple seasons, you see that right? Because I'll take the 5 or 6 seasons of an amazing player but in the real world that might not happen. When weighing the two options I'll choose wait and see. It's not that hard man.

[MrTPlush]

We already control him 7 years after you toy with his service time. Even a 10 year deal is adding only 3 years. 

Honestly, the impact and potential people are throwing around is insanely overrated, in my opinion. You are basically overpaying him in arbitration hoping you can have a couple team options for market value…thus keeping around an elite player for a few extra years before the Yankees/Dodgers give him &300mil.

Im guessing this is only coming about because payroll is likely to tank for a few years, so paying him 7 figures isn’t a huge deal while still having huge profits due to a lower payroll. Thus, in 3+ years his AVV is nice and low for his hopeful performance. If he strolled along in 2019, I don’t think the Brewers would be floating this possibility.

 

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, SeaBass said:

Nevermind the fact every poster on this board would have celebrated like they won the lottery if the Brewers had signed Hiura to exactly what you want them to sign Chourio to right now after his first month in the bigs. Hiura is absolutely relevant to this conversation.

Nonsense. Chourio is going to have significant value even if he's NOT a 900 OPS hitter.

Hiura had NO value.

The two also just aren't remotely comparable beyond the both played the game of Baseball. 

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, SeaBass said:

And? If you're trying to show me a downside I'm not seeing it.

You don't see the downside in paying 300M in a year from now what you could get for 100M now?

Man, I hope you're not a financial advisor...200M fewer dollars to build a team is a significant amount of "downside."

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, JefferyLeonard said:

That figures, why am I not surprised the Brewers still don't "get it"? You have plenty of time to not only control Churio, but to give him an extension. If Mark A is going to be shelling out piles of money for a long period of time, then for god sakes use it on a Free agent. No need to use it on Churio right now. Here's the part they don't seem to "get". You can shell out piles of money and get a stud FA bat AND still have Churio. It's not like he's leaving anytime soon. 

Just for ONE tiny, split second, stop and wonder if it's not everyone else who "doesn't get it," but maybe you?

The Braves seem to "get it."

The Pads seemed to "get it," with Tatis."

The Mariners "got it," with Rodriguez. The latter two got it later than this, but they got it. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

4 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

You don't see the downside in paying 300M in a year from now what you could get for 100M now?

Man, I hope you're not a financial advisor...200M fewer dollars to build a team is a significant amount of "downside."

If your $100M-$300M comparison refers to Rodriguez's deal, keep in mind his initial base extension is 8 yrs, $120M.  The 8-10 yr club options that are performance escalator-based don't go into effect until after 2029, and the Mariners could opt to decline those and Rodriguez finds himself either being a FA at 29 yrs old or takes a 5 year, $90M option.  Obviously those two scenarios where the Marlins decline their options are the least likely now, but alot can still happen in 5 years' time.

I think a Chourio contract now would resemble the structure of Rodriguez's deal, but that lack of MLB experience may lead to significant differences - both with the length of the initial base extension and how team options are structured.  Heck, it wouldn't surprise me in the least for the Brewers to gamble on Chourio's health and ability and set the initial base contract to just 7-8 seasons and include a signing bonus to try and pay Chourio more upfront than what he would earn taking things annually through arbitration, in order to have more team-friendly longterm club options after year 7 or 8.

[endaround]

Well when you have the next potential Victor Robles or Eloy Jimenez you do want to make sure you have him for ten years.

[Brewcrew82]

7 minutes ago, endaround said:

Well when you have the next potential Victor Robles or Eloy Jimenez you do want to make sure you have him for ten years.

Eloy Jimenez has no value apart from his bat....Robles was older and not as advanced with the bat...Nice one. 

[owbc]

I can’t believe this is even a debate, we’re staring a franchise altering superstar right in the face and we have the potential to lock down his entire prime. The only Brewers prospect worth comparing to is Robin Yount, nobody else has done what Chourio has done as a TEENAGER. And we’re going to be paying $0 of his age 30+ years while doing him a favor by getting his service time clock going a year early. 
 

We just can’t be cheap and let this chance slip away. As several have said, soon as he hits the majors and starts producing, the price doubles or he simply won’t sign. Do it now. 

[sveumrules]

11 minutes ago, endaround said:

Well when you have the next potential Victor Robles or Eloy Jimenez you do want to make sure you have him for ten years.

Luis Robert is probably the closest comp among players with zero service time to have signed an extension, why no mention of him?

[sveumrules]

Victor Robles hit 34 HR in 1,810 minor league PAs. one HR per every 53.24 PAs.

Chourio has 47 HR in 1,211 minor league PAs, one HR per every 25.77 PAs.

 

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, owbc said:

I can’t believe this is even a debate, we’re staring a franchise altering superstar right in the face and we have the potential to lock down his entire prime. The only Brewers prospect worth comparing to is Robin Yount, nobody else has done what Chourio has done as a TEENAGER. And we’re going to be paying $0 of his age 30+ years while doing him a favor by getting his service time clock going a year early. 
 

We just can’t be cheap and let this chance slip away. As several have said, soon as he hits the majors and starts producing, the price doubles or he simply won’t sign. Do it now. 

I'd say Sheffield could be in that conversation...but Chourio has a much better attitude and the Brewers aren't in the same position.

But that's it. The two prospects who are even remotely comparable through age 19 are two HOF-caliber players.

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Luis Robert is probably the closest comp among players with zero service time to have signed an extension, why no mention of him?

IT doesn't suit the narrative. 

[BrewerFan]

2 hours ago, SeaBass said:

We're you even paying attention to how people felt about Hiura his first year? It has nothing to do with his prospect status because he was already doing it in the majors.

I was paying very close attention. He was hitting the ball well as a terrible fielding 2B who SEEMED to avoid TJ surgery for the time being.

Not even remotely similar to Chourio. I don't know how to quantify how people "felt" to support an anecdote, but lets roll with this.

Lets say Chourio hits like Hiura. He's STILL an elite defensive CFer with elite speed.

So the "oh, what if he's Hiura," it's really not scaring me when you're talking about an elite defensive CFer who is going to hit for power, even if he strikes out at the rate Hiura does.

His defense/base running even at Hiura's .238/.318/.453 line after his rookie year, that'd probably be a 4-5 WAR player(and again, this is your worst case scenario.

2 hours ago, SeaBass said:

People were irate that they sent him back down for service time manipulation,

Yeah, I don't know what the point of this was. Didn't he go back down for a couple weeks at the end of May, then come back up and hit even better? He spend like 3 weeks back down. But not sure what this has to do with your argument that Hiura is somehow comprable to Chourio.

2 hours ago, SeaBass said:

There were discussions about if we would trade Hiura for Jacob deGrom and folks were flipping out that someone would even suggest it, that Hiura was the best thing to happen to the Brewers since the Braun/Fielder years. It's 100% revisionist to suggest people weren't absolutely crazy about him and would have lost their minds in happiness if the Brewers threw $100 million dollars at him to lock him up long term.

I don't know nor care to argue about these silly extreme and likely revisionist views you have. I did NOT say people weren't happy with him. I don't think there was the inference that he was better than deGrom. The "People" could be Clancy who still believes the great mistake of the Brewers franchise the past 25 years was squandering Braun at 3B and that we shouldn't do the same with Chourio at SS. 

So the "folks flipping out," at a trade for deGrom, my guess would be your dumbing it down significantly and it's as much about the monster contract that came with deGrom and the fact that the Brewers had pitching, but I don't know what point you're trying to convey. People really liked Hiura?

AWESOME. So did I. That doesn't change the main point.

HE IS NOT CHOURIO. HE WAS A BLACK HOLE DEFENSIVELY WHO PROVIDED NO VALUE ELSEWHERE.

 

2 hours ago, SeaBass said:

Right, I understand that. And that's if he works out which isn't a given. Or he doesn't have some disastrous injury. That's why I'm saying I'd love it if he ends up being amazing for multiple seasons, you see that right? Because I'll take the 5 or 6 seasons of an amazing player but in the real world that might not happen. When weighing the two options I'll choose wait and see. It's not that hard man.

What disastrous injury? Like the torn ACL the unanimous Acuna Jr had this year?

Yeah, he came back from that just fine. He's not a pitcher. And again, if he hits, you lose a perennial MVP candidate. If he's JUST Hiura, you're paying a little extra for an elite defender who hits for power and has exceptional speed.

Downside-You get a 2-3 WAR player and you pay him market value instead of getting him cheap.
The Upside-You get to keep a guy through the prime of his career on a significantly below market deal and the Brewers aren't in the same position the Braves WOULD be in right now with Acuna Jr.

 

But PLEASE stop using, "people really liked Hiura, they wouldn't trade him for deGrom."

By the way, just looking back, deGrom was in arbitration and due to become a FA at that time. I wouldn't trade Frelick for a pitcher who I know is going to leave and is a rental right now. That has literally zero correlation to signing Chourio.

[owbc]

53 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

IT doesn't suit the narrative. 

Robert Jr is an interesting comparison because he raked in the minors like Chourio is currently doing. He wasn’t an instant all-star in MLB like Carroll and Rodriguez but now that he had his breakout year those $20M club options are going to be no brainers. 

[trwi7]

Journal Sentinel saying a deal is close.

[Frisbee Slider]

11 hours ago, SeaBass said:

Nothing prevents them from extending him at literally any other time once he hits the big leagues.

Money.

Money prevents the Brewers from extending Chourio at any other time. Plus, if Chourio has a few good years, he might want to wait until free agency.

Imagine buying Amazon stock for $1 in 2002. You can still buy Amazon stock now but for a lot more money.

There is risk and upside.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

This is a pretty exciting development. There are. of course, risks involved. But it is pretty obvious that the Brewers see Chourio as a franchise cornerstone, and perennial All-Star type player, and locking him up long term is indicative of the team's intention to remain competitive long-term, rather than look at a multi-year rebuild process. 

Hiura was a solid prospect, But he isn't in the same stratosphere as Chourio. I don't know if the Brewers have ever had a prospect with the type of hype and tools this kid has. Weeks and Fielder were ranked pretty highly, but both had defensive warts that couldn't be overlooked. Surhoff maybe? Honestly, you probably have to go all the way back to Robin Yount in the early '70s to find a prospect that brings the same kind of total package Chourio has. This kid has superstar written all over him, and the fact that the team is looking to lock him up for a decade (or close to it) is huge.

[SeaBass]

6 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

I was paying very close attention. He was hitting the ball well as a terrible fielding 2B who SEEMED to avoid TJ surgery for the time being.

Not even remotely similar to Chourio. I don't know how to quantify how people "felt" to support an anecdote, but lets roll with this.

Lets say Chourio hits like Hiura. He's STILL an elite defensive CFer with elite speed.

So the "oh, what if he's Hiura," it's really not scaring me when you're talking about an elite defensive CFer who is going to hit for power, even if he strikes out at the rate Hiura does.

His defense/base running even at Hiura's .238/.318/.453 line after his rookie year, that'd probably be a 4-5 WAR player(and again, this is your worst case scenario.

Yeah, I don't know what the point of this was. Didn't he go back down for a couple weeks at the end of May, then come back up and hit even better? He spend like 3 weeks back down. But not sure what this has to do with your argument that Hiura is somehow comprable to Chourio.

I don't know nor care to argue about these silly extreme and likely revisionist views you have. I did NOT say people weren't happy with him. I don't think there was the inference that he was better than deGrom. The "People" could be Clancy who still believes the great mistake of the Brewers franchise the past 25 years was squandering Braun at 3B and that we shouldn't do the same with Chourio at SS. 

So the "folks flipping out," at a trade for deGrom, my guess would be your dumbing it down significantly and it's as much about the monster contract that came with deGrom and the fact that the Brewers had pitching, but I don't know what point you're trying to convey. People really liked Hiura?

AWESOME. So did I. That doesn't change the main point.

HE IS NOT CHOURIO. HE WAS A BLACK HOLE DEFENSIVELY WHO PROVIDED NO VALUE ELSEWHERE.

 

What disastrous injury? Like the torn ACL the unanimous Acuna Jr had this year?

Yeah, he came back from that just fine. He's not a pitcher. And again, if he hits, you lose a perennial MVP candidate. If he's JUST Hiura, you're paying a little extra for an elite defender who hits for power and has exceptional speed.

Downside-You get a 2-3 WAR player and you pay him market value instead of getting him cheap.
The Upside-You get to keep a guy through the prime of his career on a significantly below market deal and the Brewers aren't in the same position the Braves WOULD be in right now with Acuna Jr.

 

But PLEASE stop using, "people really liked Hiura, they wouldn't trade him for deGrom."

By the way, just looking back, deGrom was in arbitration and due to become a FA at that time. I wouldn't trade Frelick for a pitcher who I know is going to leave and is a rental right now. That has literally zero correlation to signing Chourio.

You seem upset about something. I'm not sure what about because I didn't read this but I see a lot of words and capital letters. For what it's worth I'm sorry I made you feel bad and I hope you're having a better day today.

[SF70]

Forgive me, but a Chourio extension is a total no-brainer and the best Brewers news I’ve heard maybe ever. 

Having this talent locked-up so he’s playing for US in his age 28 & 29 seasons and hopefully his age 30 as well is huge. 

Not having to play service-time games and also to be able to get him into the OD lineup because the team knows he’s ready helps the FO and team plan ahead to put the best overall team out there as soon as they can.

It also gives them an opportunity to receive the 1st round pick if Chourio wins the ROY or an MVP. 

Call me crazy, but the thought of potentially having 5 of the top 40 picks in the ‘25 draft and the pool money that goes with them for this teams amateur draft department is beyond exciting.

[MrTPlush]

Looking at it historically, the odds he becomes an incompetent loser not worthy of an MLB starting gig is pretty low. However, the odds he is a perennial All-Star isn't as likely as some make it out to be. There is a very large chance this contract ends up really unfortunate. There are a lot of Top 5 prospects over the years that have ended up pretty meh.

Whatever the price, it will be worth shutting up the 'Mark A is cheap crowd' for the rest of the offseason.

 

[homer]

He could be Ronald Acuna. He could be Victor Robles. Gotta take the risk that he's closer to the former than the latter.

[Fear The Chorizo]

10 minutes ago, homer said:

He could be Ronald Acuna. He could be Victor Robles. Gotta take the risk that he's closer to the former than the latter.

Agreed - and from the Brewers' perspective, gotta try and take that risk now so the contract doesn't have to approach Tatis, Jr./Rodriguez territory in cost to get it done.

 

[homer]

I'm sure @sveumrules can find some numbers but I'd be willing to bet that even if he ends up "meh" it's still a decent deal towards the end of the terms.