Brewers and Chourio: Heyman reports 8 years, $80 million + 2 club option years

[BrewerFan]

6 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Believe $82M is the 3rd largest guarantee in Brewers history behind the Braun and Yelich extensions.

What was LoCain GTD?

[sveumrules]

1 minute ago, BrewerFan said:

What was LoCain GTD?

5/80, though ended up less than that (closer to $64M I believe) when he opted out of COVID year.

[umphrey]

Huge gamble and honestly I’ve been critical of Chourio in the past but screw it let’s roll the dice! Small market teams have to take chances to win World Series. If he’s a good defender in center field then the $10m/year won’t kill us anyway even if his bat goes full Hiura. 

[Brewcrew82]

16 minutes ago, umphrey said:

Huge gamble and honestly I’ve been critical of Chourio in the past but screw it let’s roll the dice! Small market teams have to take chances to win World Series. If he’s a good defender in center field then the $10m/year won’t kill us anyway even if his bat goes full Hiura. 

Curious how you could be critical of Chourio given he's done things that only a handful of teenagers have ever done and most have no business doing and possesses plus to plus plus tools across the board...

He can be a bit overaggressive and doesn't walk as much as you'd like, but he's also 19 years old playing in the upper minors. I just don't see that much to be critical of. 

[wibadgers23]

5 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

He can be a bit overaggressive and doesn't walk as much as you'd like, but he's also 19 years old playing in the upper minors. I just don't see that much to be critical of.

Yeah needs to work on drawing more walks but did cut the strikeout numbers down considerably during the second half of 2023. Other than that, not much to gripe about. He’s a 5-tool prospect for a reason.

[umphrey]

3 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Curious how you could be critical of Chourio given he's done things that only a handful of teenagers have ever done and most have no business doing and possesses plus to plus plus tools across the board...

He can be a bit overaggressive and doesn't walk as much as you'd like, but he's also 19 years old playing in the upper minors. I just don't see that much to be critical of. 

Well I wasn’t trying to turn this into a Chourio bashing thread but he only had a 112 wRC+ in AA last year and I don’t buy into the notion of young guys always get better as they age quite as much as others do. So he felt like more of a top 10 or 20 MLB prospect to me as opposed to the top 2 or 3 most people call him. 112 wRC+ is kind of weak for the best prospect in baseball who didn’t really play in AAA. 

[Brewcrew82]

12 minutes ago, umphrey said:

Well I wasn’t trying to turn this into a Chourio bashing thread but he only had a 112 wRC+ in AA last year and I don’t buy into the notion of young guys always get better as they age quite as much as others do. So he felt like more of a top 10 or 20 MLB prospect to me as opposed to the top 2 or 3 most people call him. 112 wRC+ is kind of weak for the best prospect in baseball who didn’t really play in AAA. 

I get that and just curious though I will note he put up a 145 wRC+ after the end of the pre-tacked ball, which skewed things pretty heavily. And then proceeded to be a top 5 hitter (.983 OPS) in the Venezuelan Winter League where the average age is more than 9 years older. 

[Brewcrew82]

Wonder how soon the Brewers add him to the 40 man once this goes down officially. I suppose they could wait up until OD, but this deal effectively takes up a spot. 

[homer]

17 minutes ago, umphrey said:

Well I wasn’t trying to turn this into a Chourio bashing thread but he only had a 112 wRC+ in AA last year and I don’t buy into the notion of young guys always get better as they age quite as much as others do. So he felt like more of a top 10 or 20 MLB prospect to me as opposed to the top 2 or 3 most people call him. 112 wRC+ is kind of weak for the best prospect in baseball who didn’t really play in AAA. 

I think the big thing about last year is the progression he made month to month. 

[Brewcrew82]

Since we're the Braves now, real question is how much the Brewers are going to get Chourio to donate to the Brewers Community Foundation. 

[Brewcrew82]

Highly recommend this listen from the guys over at BA. Chourio deal is the first thing they discuss. They absolutely love the deal, saying that Chourio still will provide meaningful value even if he doesn't develop all the way with the bat while the upside is Acuna-like/superstar. Also note that the hit rate for top 5/3 position player prospects is remarkably high. 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/future-projection-episode-69-the-state-of-nl-west-farm-systems/

[BrewerFan]

3 hours ago, Matt said:

Instead of seven seasons they have him for ten, the final three being his prime. Nothing ehhhh about that, in my opinion. 

Yes, but it's not a FULL 7 seasons. I'm the first to say, "it's closer to 7 seasons," but you really couldn't bring him up for OD before this contract. You had to worry about service time. So this could VERY possibly mean an additional 1st Rd draft pick, plus the money.

Also, it's not a stupid game now. It's just "this is our guy, he's here through the age of 30...we don't need to start bracing 3-4 years in and talking about when we're going to trade him. 

That's really the huge thing. Most likely he's going to really struggle for stretches this year. A .770 OPS would be great, his D and Speed, also big. But that burns one year, then you'll likely have another fluke season. That's 2 years. By the time he really blows up and gets comfortable, you get maybe 1-2 years before you really start to worry about that(trading him). Burnes was actually an outlier in that he won his Cy Young earlier than normal, but that's been a constant issue and source of angst. How we're "blowing" the Burnes/Woodruff window. Well, it would have been all the worse if Chourio is the player people expect him to be.

 

And again, if he's NOT the player we expect/hope he'll be, I don't think this is a bad deal even then. Even if you end up overpaying a little bit, he should provide 2-3 WAR at least with his power, speed, and glove. Maybe Byron Buxton isn't quite the "floor" for him, but it's pretty close...IMO. 

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

5/80, though ended up less than that (closer to $64M I believe) when he opted out of COVID year.

Oh...I thought he got 5/85. The Covid year doesn't really matter in this regard(it certainly helped that he started, then opted out so it counted as a year of service, but not in their initial GTD offer). 

[Brewcrew82]

14 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Highly recommend this listen from the guys over at BA. Chourio deal is the first thing they discuss. They absolutely love the deal, saying that Chourio still will provide value even if he doesn't develop all the way with the bat while the upside is Acuna-like/superstar. Also note that the hit rate for top 5/3 position player prospects is remarkably high. 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/future-projection-episode-69-the-state-of-nl-west-farm-systems/

 

Also, it's like they've read this board and are directly rebutting one @JefferyLeonard because they say they'd much rather do a deal like this with its massive upside than spend a similar to greater amount on FAs in their early to mid 30s who flame out almost just as much as top prospects (e.g., Chapman, Matt). 

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Since we're the Braves now, real question is how much the Brewers are going to get Chourio to donate to the Brewers Community Foundation. 

I'd LOVE to become the Braves in this regard. They are set up so well moving forward. They have their stars all locked up just up until the back end of their prime years. Some are more expensive like Austin Riley(still a good value). He signed 3 years into his service time(well, as he was finishing his 3rd year) and has put up ~19 WAR the last 3 years. He's signed through age 34.

Olson was heading into his 2nd year of arbitration, so you paid a premium there(and that worked out well thus far).

Harris, Murphy, Albies, and then Acuna Jr. SIX of their 9 positions. Your C, 1B, 2B, 3B, CF, RF. All 6 are guys who you can reasonably expect 5-6 WAR from and in big years can, as we saw, out-perform even hat. 

I'd again continue to pound the drums for a Uribe deal, a Contreras deal, and maybe a Frelick deal. Obviously at very different numbers. Uribe for 8/30M or use Ashby/Peralta's deals.

Contreras for an 8/80M type deal + 2 team options as well. Someone broke it down and compared it to what Murphy signed for next year and that's a fair deal relative to Murphy's and adds a ton of value to Contreras moving forward and allows you to do whatever with Quero. 

BUT--again, Jackson Chourio is in a different league than all of these players. What he's done at his age, what he's accomplished is just different. The upside is so much higher there. And it's rare. I would bet money Jackson Holliday doesn't sign that deal simply because he got a large signing bonus, he comes from money. And you just saw what it can cost if you wait a month or a few months with Carroll or Julio Rodriguez. 

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Also, it's like they've read this board and are directly rebutting one @JefferyLeonard because they say they'd much rather do a deal like this with its massive upside than spend a similar to greater amount on FAs in their early to mid 30s who flame out almost just as much as top prospects (e.g., Chapman, Matt). 

I just started listening and what a GREAT point they're making. You want to spend this money on Jackson Chourio or spend twice this on Cody Bellinger? It's a no-brainer. 

That's setting aside how overrated I think Bellinger's "bounce back" season was. The raw numbers were great, but projecting forward, the exit velo and the advanced analytics, that's a helluva risk. 

[Brewcrew82]

4 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

I'd LOVE to become the Braves in this regard. They are set up so well moving forward. They have their stars all locked up just up until the back end of their prime years. Some are more expensive like Austin Riley(still a good value). He signed 3 years into his service time(well, as he was finishing his 3rd year) and has put up ~19 WAR the last 3 years. He's signed through age 34.

Olson was heading into his 2nd year of arbitration, so you paid a premium there(and that worked out well thus far).

Harris, Murphy, Albies, and then Acuna Jr. SIX of their 9 positions. Your C, 1B, 2B, 3B, CF, RF. All 6 are guys who you can reasonably expect 5-6 WAR from and in big years can, as we saw, out-perform even hat. 

I'd again continue to pound the drums for a Uribe deal, a Contreras deal, and maybe a Frelick deal. Obviously at very different numbers. Uribe for 8/30M or use Ashby/Peralta's deals.

Contreras for an 8/80M type deal + 2 team options as well. Someone broke it down and compared it to what Murphy signed for next year and that's a fair deal relative to Murphy's and adds a ton of value to Contreras moving forward and allows you to do whatever with Quero. 

BUT--again, Jackson Chourio is in a different league than all of these players. What he's done at his age, what he's accomplished is just different. The upside is so much higher there. And it's rare. I would bet money Jackson Holliday doesn't sign that deal simply because he got a large signing bonus, he comes from money. And you just saw what it can cost if you wait a month or a few months with Carroll or Julio Rodriguez. 

Yeah, no way Holliday signs a deal like this with his large signing bonus, money background, and the fact that he's a Boras client. Thank god Chourio didn't hire that guy to represent him. 

I think Contreras is a great extension candidate, even with the presence of Quero. Guy just produced one of the top C fWAR seasons in franchise history at 25 years old. Can always move him to DH or trade Quero to shore up an area of weakness. 

I'd probably hold off on the others for now, though I'd be paying close attention to Black, Frelick, etc. because once/if they start hitting at the major league level you'd want to pounce pretty quickly. 

[tmwiese55]

After the year Contreras just had have to think he'd be asking for a good amount now.  Other factors, as of now he'll be 30 at FA so still young enough for a big FA contract, if healthy. Give up 2-3 years of FA and then he's old for a C. And his brother has banked a ton of money for the family, assuming they are in good standing with each other there isn't as much of a "lock in that life changing money" aspect when your bro has already done it so you're set anyway.

Think if they'd have been able to lock him in on this type of a deal right after acquiring him and how possibly cheap that could've been.  Who knows if they had that discussion.

[Redd Vencher]

6 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

After the year Contreras just had have to think he'd be asking for a good amount now.  Other factors, as of now he'll be 30 at FA so still young enough for a big FA contract, if healthy. Give up 2-3 years of FA and then he's old for a C. And his brother has banked a ton of money for the family, assuming they are in good standing with each other there isn't as much of a "lock in that life changing money" aspect when your bro has already done it so you're set anyway.

Think if they'd have been able to lock him in on this type of a deal right after acquiring him and how possibly cheap that could've been.  Who knows if they had that discussion.

The Murphy deal was only 6 years $73 M covering his 3 arb seasons and 3 FA years with an 8 year option. I would do the 7 years $80 M with an 8th year option for Contreras.

[Brewcrew82]

22 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

After the year Contreras just had have to think he'd be asking for a good amount now.  Other factors, as of now he'll be 30 at FA so still young enough for a big FA contract, if healthy. Give up 2-3 years of FA and then he's old for a C. And his brother has banked a ton of money for the family, assuming they are in good standing with each other there isn't as much of a "lock in that life changing money" aspect when your bro has already done it so you're set anyway.

Think if they'd have been able to lock him in on this type of a deal right after acquiring him and how possibly cheap that could've been.  Who knows if they had that discussion.

I'd be comfortable if the Brewers decided to give him around the same contract the Cardinals gave his brother right now and buy out a couple years of his FA. Could do his brother's 5/87 with an option year or two tacked on. 

Contreras is only like a month or two older than Adley Rutschman, who everyone considers to be the next big thing at C, and he outproduced Adley last year by fWAR....

[Redd Vencher]

1 minute ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I'd be comfortable if the Brewers decided to give him around the same contract the Cardinals gave his brother right now and buy out a couple years of his FA. Could do his brother's 5/87 with an option year or two. 

That would be a poor extension given he has 1 year pre arb and 3 years arb left.

[Brewcrew82]

4 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

That would be a poor extension given he has 1 year pre arb and 3 years arb left.

I don't think so if you get one or two team friendly options added to that. Give him more money upfront now and get 2-3 additional seasons in his prime when the cost of our other young guys is going to go up. 

We can do it, especially if we trade Burnes. 

[brewcrewdue80]

When does Contreras move to 1b?  Quero will outclass him by a boatload behind the plate defensively and managing pitchers. I'm not trying to extend Contreras. Dh/1b by the end of this season. Split it up with Yelich.

 

Back to future RoY.  So 58M between the 2 option years?  Yeah sounds about right. That's about right up against max I'd think Milw would pick up without the ascension I'm thinking he will be.  What is that a 5WAR expectation right now for that amount?  8 would be easy picking it up.

[BrewerFan]

4 hours ago, tmwiese55 said:

After the year Contreras just had have to think he'd be asking for a good amount now.  Other factors, as of now he'll be 30 at FA so still young enough for a big FA contract, if healthy. Give up 2-3 years of FA and then he's old for a C. And his brother has banked a ton of money for the family, assuming they are in good standing with each other there isn't as much of a "lock in that life changing money" aspect when your bro has already done it so you're set anyway.

Think if they'd have been able to lock him in on this type of a deal right after acquiring him and how possibly cheap that could've been.  Who knows if they had that discussion.

That's a bit of an odd assumption. Counting his brother's money as a deterrent? That's a HUGE assumption that he'd risk holding his hand out to his brother rather than just...make his own money. 

And yes, I think he'd be asking for a good amount. 8/80 is a good amount 4 years away from FA. That's a baseline. Maybe it is 7/80 with 2 TOs or whatever, but it'd be unrealistic of him to think he'd beat Murphy's deal. 

 

Finally, yes, you're ALWAYS going to be giving up FA years. There is zero reason for any team to commit this type of money to a player just to ensure they get their money through arbitration. The FA years are the only reason you consider giving ~80M to any player. 

[rickh150]

On 11/30/2023 at 2:20 AM, BrewerFan said:

Dude...I've seen your posts. I can tell when someone is making a genuine but ridiculous argument(Contreras should move to SS because his bat will help us more there, a comment nobody has actually made, but an example) or comparing a AAA Hiura who has no defensive value to the youngest player in AA last year.

It's just a bad faith argument and little more. 

It's possible you do believe it...in which case, I've overestimated you. 

Never compared player type or futures of Hiura with Chourio…if insulting, get it right.  I compared Brewers lack of interest in promoting Hiura based on quality stats in AAA/MLB in 2022/2023 at obvious need positions (DH/1B) with eagerness of Brewers to give 19 year old ultra big bucks without a MLB at bat.
Just showing two Brewers approaches for two different players and that I disagree with both.