Brewers and Chourio: Heyman reports 8 years, $80 million + 2 club option years

[BrewerFan]

On 12/4/2023 at 9:26 AM, tmwiese55 said:

Of course its just speculation but I don't think its crazy at all.   I mean, someone else was talking about one of the Bal top guys not being likely to take a deal like this early with a factor of it being he comes from family money.  Its the same thing, assuming his family is close and gets along.   

Its not like he's still not going to make his own money of some kind no matter what happens (barring major injury or falloff before arb) but its a lot easier to take the risk of the year to year contracts when your family already has 100+ mil than it would be if it was just you coming to the USA broke from Venezuela with nothing.    In that case, if 40-50 mil gets put in front you its hard not to just put that in the bank and be set no matter what rather than getting greedy playing year to year hoping to get 125 mil instead (random numbers, not specific to Contreras).    This was actually something nationally discussed when Atl got Albies and Acuna on those deals and if the team was kind of taking advantage of their situations.     If you're a gambler, if already rich like he and his family is the year to year risk is like gambling with house money. If he was broke, then he's gambling with the money he needs to pay rent.

That was me(and I believe Brewcrew82) we were talking about Jackson Holliday and it was his FATHERS money, not his Brothers. And that was only half the equation, the other half was that he got an 8.2M dollar signing bonus last year.

Your parents being wealthy at 19 years old while also having made a lot of money for yourself(more than Contreras has made thus far) versus your 31-year-old brother when you're 24 are two wildly different things. It's not at all the same. Yeah, they may pay for a vacation or they may do certain things for you(maybe even buy you a house)...but if you have the chance to make the SAME amount of money as him and be independently wealthy...you're most likely not going to pass that up because your brother has made money.

It's entirely possible he'll choose to go year to year because he'll bet on himself, but I can't imagine he passes up a competitive deal because one of his brothers(he's got at least one other who didn't make it in MLB, so he has both examples to draw from) made it big.

[BrewerFan]

21 hours ago, SRB said:

He'll definitely be in the majors at some point in 2024, but I don't see why this deal makes it any more likely that he's the opening day CF. They had an opportunity to lock him up for a longterm deal that he probably wouldn't have wanted to negotiate during the season.

I wouldn't rush him for no reason. Seems like he should start at AAA and play his way up.

This deal makes it SOO much more likely he's going to be in the opening-day lineup for several reasons. You're paying for Major League Service time anyway...so it's not like you can put him in the minors for 3 years and then you still have 10 years of him. 

Starting him in Milwaukee on opening day opens the door to getting a 1st rd draft pick in ROY compensation. With this deal, you don't have to wait 2 months to get that extra year, it's already in the contract. 

I also don't think you're rushing him at this point. He's proven himself. He spent a full year in AA last year and he was elite after they went back to the normal baseballs. 

You can certainly send him down if he struggles or whatever, but it'd be a little silly to not have him on the OD roster when you're literally encouraged to have players just like this...top 100 prospects who've hit in the upper levels...on OD rosters. 

[DR28]

5 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Current lineup is a free agent 1B away from being cromulent (2024 Steamer projections)...

Yelich (116 wRC+)
Chourio (93 wRC+)
Contreras (120 wRC+)
Hoskins (116 wRC+)
Adames (103 wRC+)
Black (104 wRC+)
Frelick (103 wRC+)
Taylor (95 wRC+)
Turang (88 wRC+)

And if we're trading Adames... I really wouldnt mind signing Merrifield to play 2B.

Turang and Whit would make a nice up the middle with Jackson in CF.

[Brewcrew82]

46 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

That was me(and I believe Brewcrew82) we were talking about Jackson Holliday and it was his FATHERS money, not his Brothers. And that was only half the equation, the other half was that he got an 8.2M dollar signing bonus last year.

Your parents being wealthy at 19 years old while also having made a lot of money for yourself(more than Contreras has made thus far) versus your 31-year-old brother when you're 24 are two wildly different things. It's not at all the same. Yeah, they may pay for a vacation or they may do certain things for you(maybe even buy you a house)...but if you have the chance to make the SAME amount of money as him and be independently wealthy...you're most likely not going to pass that up because your brother has made money.

It's entirely possible he'll choose to go year to year because he'll bet on himself, but I can't imagine he passes up a competitive deal because one of his brothers(he's got at least one other who didn't make it in MLB, so he has both examples to draw from) made it big.

He'll just pass it up because his agent is Scott Boras. 

[tmwiese55]

1 hour ago, BrewerFan said:

That was me(and I believe Brewcrew82) we were talking about Jackson Holliday and it was his FATHERS money, not his Brothers. And that was only half the equation, the other half was that he got an 8.2M dollar signing bonus last year.

Your parents being wealthy at 19 years old while also having made a lot of money for yourself(more than Contreras has made thus far) versus your 31-year-old brother when you're 24 are two wildly different things. It's not at all the same. Yeah, they may pay for a vacation or they may do certain things for you(maybe even buy you a house)...but if you have the chance to make the SAME amount of money as him and be independently wealthy...you're most likely not going to pass that up because your brother has made money.

It's entirely possible he'll choose to go year to year because he'll bet on himself, but I can't imagine he passes up a competitive deal because one of his brothers(he's got at least one other who didn't make it in MLB, so he has both examples to draw from) made it big.

OK.  I see no difference in the logic as we're just guys on the internet and don't know their family dynamics.  He very likely has a fallback option (just like a signing bonus or rich dad).  If he didn't, its logical you're more urgent to lock in what you can.   Is it the number 1 thing, do we actually know if he and his bro are close, No, but if you're deciding whether to gamble year to year risking injury (like he just saw a teammate lose 100 mil due to injury) its way easier to do knowing your brother (if you're close, which stereotypical latin american families are) is rich AF.  I really don't even know how the logic can be debated.

Think of the bird in the hand vs two in the bush.  Well, if you have 0 birds you better take the 1 have.   If you already have 10 birds, F it, go for 2. 

[BrewerFan]

4 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

OK.  I see no difference in the logic as we're just guys on the internet and don't know their family dynamics.  He very likely has a fallback option (just like a signing bonus or rich dad).  If he didn't, its logical you're more urgent to lock in what you can.   Is it the number 1 thing, do we actually know if he and his bro are close, No, but if you're deciding whether to gamble year to year risking injury (like he just saw a teammate lose 100 mil due to injury) its way easier to do knowing your brother (if you're close, which stereotypical latin american families are) is rich AF.  I really don't even know how the logic can be debated.

Think of the bird in the hand vs two in the bush.  Well, if you have 0 birds you better take the 1 have.   If you already have 10 birds, F it, go for 2. 

You don't know how it can even be argued that having a brother roughly your age making a lot of money is the same as you yourself making ~9M and being 19 years old and the #1 prospect with a FATHER who made nearly 200M during his career?


What exactly do you expect of your siblings? My Sister and her Fiancé don't expect me to pay for them to raise their child. They didn't even expect a free place to live. They DID expect my parents to help them buy a house(as they'd helped me when I was younger). The relationship between a Brother and Father are wildly different. The best way for two brothers to NOT be close...is to count your brothers money and expect to use that as a fallback in case you make the wrong decision in your own career. I also don't think offering him a deal akin to Murphy, a decidedly superior player is really a huge risk. 

[BrewerFan]

39 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

He'll just pass it up because his agent is Scott Boras. 

That's a big factor. I think slighty exaggerated as he's had players sign extensions(I can only think of Altuve and Boegarts just did before opting out). But even if you set that aside, having made 9M as the 1st overall pick and his Dad making a LOT of money and advising him would make it unlikely he would either way.

Now Holliday also has his own younger Brother who's a VERY highly regarded prospect, one who may be a better prospect than Jackson(probably hyperbole, but I've seen the argument). 

In Contreras' case, he's got at least one brother who's already not made it in the majors(I don't know if he has any others). 

Let's put it this way. Say Jaison Chourio is a top prospect and becomes the higher OBP, lower power version of Jackson. Do you think he'll be less inclined to sign an extension because Jackson did? That logic just doesn't make sense to me(I know it's not your argument).

This is all probably moot as I don't think the Brewers are rushing to extend Contreras and, players decide to or not to sign irrespective of family money.

[tmwiese55]

1 hour ago, BrewerFan said:

You don't know how it can even be argued that having a brother roughly your age making a lot of money is the same as you yourself making ~9M and being 19 years old and the #1 prospect with a FATHER who made nearly 200M during his career?


What exactly do you expect of your siblings? My Sister and her Fiancé don't expect me to pay for them to raise their child. They didn't even expect a free place to live. They DID expect my parents to help them buy a house(as they'd helped me when I was younger). The relationship between a Brother and Father are wildly different. The best way for two brothers to NOT be close...is to count your brothers money and expect to use that as a fallback in case you make the wrong decision in your own career. I also don't think offering him a deal akin to Murphy, a decidedly superior player is really a huge risk. 

I think if I won the lottery of like 150 mil my siblings would not have to work and would be set for life.  And the other way around as well.     And the info we see of these athletes is they take care of their families like crazy with houses and crazy stuff. 

To the actual discussion.  The logic is simply that you're set for money either way (if its your dad, signing bonus or your bro) so its easier to gamble/risk than if you're broke. I honestly don't know how the logic is debatable.  I didn't say its the only thing or impossible or that there wouldn't eventually be a number that tips the scales to do an early contract, just that its a factor that works against the need to sign early. That is my only point, thats it, there's no need to continue this. 

Your spin to the negative on relying on point:  If they're cool and legit get along and friends the older bro could very easily be going to him:  "No man, don't take that cheaper contract, get to FA and go for the big payday. I got you no matter what".  that could be the advise he's giving.  Of course I don't know, just like you don't if its him being a drag on his bro the way you assumed.  But such a discussion couldn't happen with most other plays.

And yea, there's no reason for the Brewers to not try like you said. Why not try. 

[HarveysWBs]

I'm sure this has been noted before, but it seems to be a rather interesting correlation that they give Chourio this deal after they happen to have just made Rickie Weeks the bench coach.  Maybe it is a coincidence, and sure, Weeks came up as a September call-up so it is a fairly different scenario, but if there's anybody in the org who has been even in the same stratosphere to where Chourio is as far as expectations for an uber-talented (soon-to-be) 20 year old, it is Weeks.  I wonder if his presence played some role in making the brass more comfortable with this move.  It certainly wouldn't be the deciding factor, but it had to work in favor of the deal on some level, I'd imagine.

[BrewerFan]

52 minutes ago, tmwiese55 said:

The logic is simply that you're set for money either way (if its your dad, signing bonus or your bro) so its easier to gamble/risk than if you're broke. I honestly don't know how the logic is debatable. 

I'm getting that. I just don't agree with you. Relying on your parents vs your Brothers are two very different scenarios to me.

And yes, if I won 150M I'd take care of my siblings...but that's not the same. I'd give them ~5M. I'd also tell them to cash their lottery ticket if they won the lottery as well. 

 

[Matt]

Quote

“If he comes up to the big leagues and he’s awesome, I don’t think he signs,” Brewers general manager Matt Arnold said on Tuesday. “We have to be first-movers to do that, otherwise we just can’t pull that off. The market won’t let us do that. We had to act sooner to do that. That’s the risk we had to take.”

Hell of a quote. He's right, but I'm glad he said it. 

[Playing Catch]

I think all of the Boras comments in this, and other threads, that refer to his universal refusal to sign extensions, or hold out for top top dollar are overblown.

He's one of the best at what he does, that often means getting top dollar, but his record doesn't suggest that procuring his services prevents other outcomes... He does a good job representing his client's interests.

[Brewcrew82]

10 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

I think all of the Boras comments in this, and other threads, that refer to his universal refusal to sign extensions, or hold out for top top dollar are overblown.

He's one of the best at what he does, that often means getting top dollar, but his record doesn't suggest that procuring his services prevents other outcomes... He does a good job representing his client's interests.

It's well known that he counsels his clients to set their value on the open market....

Out of all the clients he's had over the years, very few have signed extensions before free agency. 

More often, they take the route of Carlos Correa, Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Corbin Burnes, etc. 

[Playing Catch]

1 minute ago, Brewcrew82 said:

It's well known that he counsels his clients to set their value on the open market....

Out of all the clients he's had over the years, very few have signed extensions before free agency. 

More often, they take the route of Carlos Correa, Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Corbin Burnes, etc. 

There are a lot of excellent, top-notch agent services out there these days. The players get to choose their agent.

Sure, if they want to be sure to hit free agency and earn top dollar, Boras has a reputation. But that says more about the player than Boras, IMO, since there are plenty of examples where he broke from that trend.

I guess what I'm saying is that instead of us demonizing Boras, perhaps we should be questioning the player's motives?

[brewcrewdue80]

He gets a $2 million signing bonus and salaries of $2 million in 2024, $4 million in 2025, $7 million in 2026, $8 million in 2027, $9 million in 2028, $15 million in 2029, $16 million in 2030 and $17 million in 2031. Milwaukee has $25 million options for 2031 and ’32, each with a $2 million buyout. He has escalators for the final three years based on MVP voting

 

Chourio original signing 1.8M.  Motivation having likely used those funds early. Signing bonus 2M akin right away to his signing money.  2M that will be paid throughput 2024.  Then 4M etc. Great spread for Chourio to grow his wealth now securing money yearly similar to what he has been working with  vs coming in to this season making far less.  That to me is the motivation to these deals.  No credit-financial burdens on future income. He's no longer a future 80+Mil MLB star to be.  It's reality 8years ahead of time. Give him the keys to where he wants to live those 8years-10years far ahead of time, vs 4 years from now after 1st arb and team control being less than 3 years remaining with trade hanging over his head.  Anyway one of my daily LFG Chourio is here happiness posts.

[monty57]

15 hours ago, brewerfan82 said:

 

Taken from https://apnews.com/article/chourio-brewers-contract-dc78fbd32462a4ae7256454988ee7f5c:

 

I like the way it's laid out. He's getting more in the early years than he probably would've received in pre-arby, and then gets less than he'd probably get in his first FA years ($16M & $17M) at the end of the deal.

The team will pay a little more in the next few years, when there shouldn't be a payroll crunch, and less later, when some of the other guys will be in their more expensive years, whether they're extended or going through arby. Plus, I'm sure he likes getting paid sooner, so it's a win for both sides.

Finally, $25M will be a steal nine years from now if he reaches his potential, and $2M is a pretty small buyout if he doesn't.

[TURBO]

10 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

I think all of the Boras comments in this, and other threads, that refer to his universal refusal to sign extensions, or hold out for top top dollar are overblown.

He's one of the best at what he does, that often means getting top dollar, but his record doesn't suggest that procuring his services prevents other outcomes... He does a good job representing his client's interests.

Wow, you may be the first person I have ever seen that is pro BorASS.

The only thing I see BorASS as is the guy who makes it close to impossible for a small market be it cheap team to sign star players.  He squeaks every last dollar out of every contract, taking teams like the Brewers out of any chance of signing big name free agents.  

I will give him no credit for being anything other than a detriment to MLB.

 

[TURBO]

9 hours ago, Playing Catch said:

 

I guess what I'm saying is that instead of us demonizing Boras, perhaps we should be questioning the player's motives?

Wow, again...

The players motives are obvious, more money, more money, more money, and BorASS gets them that, plus takes small market teams out of the running for any of the top free agents from the get go.

[tmwiese55]

12 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

I'm getting that. I just don't agree with you. Relying on your parents vs your Brothers are two very different scenarios to me.

And yes, if I won 150M I'd take care of my siblings...but that's not the same. I'd give them ~5M. I'd also tell them to cash their lottery ticket if they won the lottery as well. 

 

I didn't compare those two. The logic is the same though. But it is vs someone who is broke not vs each other.       Lottery is the same or at least a way closer comp than you acting like normal people.  His bro has over 100 mil, just like I would if I won the lottery.

This is it, which player is more likely/able to gamble and risk it and which is more likely to take the safer route.

Player 1: comes from impoverished country to here with nothing with no fallback option, family money, or anyone else to rely on. Likely is also the person his family back home are relying on to help them.

Player 2: Brother has 100 million dollars.  Or dad has 200 million dollars.  Or sister is Taylor Swift.  Assuming good relations with all.

To me, it not even arguable that 1 would be the more likely to take the safe 'put it in the bank' route.   I see no way to do so, but if you somehow disagree (especially since you already said yes to Dad 200) so be it

[MrTPlush]

I have to be honest, the fact we had to give him $25mil options is really disappointing. Often times in these deals, the options will be comparable to what they make at the end of the extension (about $17mil in Chourio's case). Thus, they are very likely to be picked up and possibly still a bargain. 

Yah, $25mil in 8 years will be quite a bit different...but that is a steep price for those options to be. Not as team friendly as one would hope for them to be.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

2 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

I have to be honest, the fact we had to give him $25mil options is really disappointing. Often times in these deals, the options will be comparable to what they make at the end of the extension (about $17mil in Chourio's case). Thus, they are very likely to be picked up and possibly still a bargain. 

Yah, $25mil in 8 years will be quite a bit different...but that is a steep price for those options to be. Not as team friendly as one would hope for them to be.

I highly doubt that, come the end of this deal, there will be much consternation whether those options get picked up. The Brewers are banking on him being a star, which will make them a bargain. But if he isn't, you pay the cheap buyout and move on. 

[monty57]

6 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

I have to be honest, the fact we had to give him $25mil options is really disappointing. Often times in these deals, the options will be comparable to what they make at the end of the extension (about $17mil in Chourio's case). Thus, they are very likely to be picked up and possibly still a bargain. 

Yah, $25mil in 8 years will be quite a bit different...but that is a steep price for those options to be. Not as team friendly as one would hope for them to be.

I look at the options as being a way the Brewers can keep him for the entire 8-year deal. At that point, if they don't think they can afford the $25M, they can trade him to a bigger market team on what is essentially a 2 year/$50M deal, which for a star player in his prime would be very tradable. If he isn't a star player, they can cut bait for $4M.

[homer]

1 minute ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I highly doubt that, come the end of this deal, there will be much consternation whether those options get picked up. The Brewers are banking on him being a star, which will make them a bargain. But if he isn't, you pay the cheap buyout and move on. 

Yeah if he is a star that $25mil will be cheap. I think Manny Machado is scheduled to make $35 mil in his age 34 season. Aaron Judge is gonna make $40 mil at age 35.

[monty57]

38 minutes ago, homer said:

Yeah if he is a star that $25mil will be cheap. I think Manny Machado is scheduled to make $35 mil in his age 34 season. Aaron Judge is gonna make $40 mil at age 35.

...and that's in today's dollars. Chourio is getting that ten years from now.

[MrTPlush]

42 minutes ago, monty57 said:

I look at the options as being a way the Brewers can keep him for the entire 8-year deal. At that point, if they don't think they can afford the $25M, they can trade him to a bigger market team on what is essentially a 2 year/$50M deal, which for a star player in his prime would be very tradable. If he isn't a star player, they can cut bait for $4M.

That isn't my point though. When those options are cheaper, say $17mil it reduces the risk of the deal overall. Say he ends up a maybe just a really solid non All-Star starter. If those options are cheap or market rate there is a lot of value in having him for just a year or two without a huge additional commitment. Think of it like being able to have Grandal for a year versus a huge 5 year deal. Or, they make him tradable and valuable on the trade market. At $25mil, those really aren't that great unless he is a star. 

Not saying the deal is bad because of it...just disappointed the Brewers ended up with some crappy options compared to previous deals tended to have.