Orioles attempt at burnes

[Scooterfletcher]

They are prospect huggers for sure but if we can get DL Hall, ortiz McDermott and povich then that’s one we have to accept.  Thoughts!??

[brewcrewdue80]

4 hours ago, Scooterfletcher said:

They are prospect huggers for sure but if we can get DL Hall, ortiz McDermott and povich then that’s one we have to accept.  Thoughts!??

 

Baltimore is giving up too much ML ready talent for 1 season of Burnes. No reason for them to do this.

[Lloyd330]

Mayo / McDermott

[TURBO]

Burnes and Williams for Jackson Holliday.

Brewers could still throw in another player or two and I'd do this...

I know it won't/can't happen, but imagine Chourio and Holiday in our line up for the next 8 years...

[wibadgers23]

9 minutes ago, TURBO said:

Burnes and Williams for Jackson Holliday.

Brewers could still throw in another player or two and I'd do this...

I know it won't/can't happen, but imagine Chourio and Holiday in our line up for the next 8 years...

Chourio/Holliday would really be something but as you said, not gonna happen. I would be perfectly content with some combination of Mayo, Basallo, Ortiz, Norby, etc. Just not sure if Baltimore will actually trade their prospects.

[Scooterfletcher]

I wonder if a guy like Cowser might be the prospect they most are willing to move amongst their very top ones.   I have a weird feeling he is the one A prospect that we might be able to pry from that top tier .   I’d be happy to grab him and 2-3 arms that they are willing to let us have for Corbin. 

[Redd Vencher]

Mayo, Norby, and 1 of Baumeister/De Leon/Nunez or Westburg, Ortiz, and 1 of Baumeister/De Leon/Nunez are the 2 deals I'd be willing to do for Burnes.

[Jack]

It's been over a decade since the Brewers had a third baseman that I could feel good about for the following few years.  I'm tired of waiting, and I don't feel confident in the current candidates.

Colby Mayo has to be included...

Of course, knowing my luck, they'd trade for him and move him to 1B...  😂

[wntrtxn21]

17 hours ago, Redd Vencher said:

 

 

17 hours ago, Redd Vencher said:

Mayo, Norby, and 1 of Baumeister/De Leon/Nunez or Westburg, Ortiz, and 1 of Baumeister/De Leon/Nunez are the 2 deals I'd be willing to do for Burnes.

If the Brewers made this deal what would they do for pitching? Peralta, an aging Miley, Ashby coming off a major injury, and?? What would their ceiling be, 70-72 wins?

[wibadgers23]

30 minutes ago, wntrtxn21 said:

 

If the Brewers made this deal what would they do for pitching? Peralta, an aging Miley, Ashby coming off a major injury, and?? What would their ceiling be, 70-72 wins?

Gasser would definitely get an opportunity and then maybe they could sign one of the FA pitchers out there to a one year deal.

[nate82]

17 hours ago, Jack said:

Of course, knowing my luck, they'd trade for him and move him to 1B

Mayo is a 1B and not a 3B.  Defensively he is somewhere between average and below average at 3B.

[Jack]

7 hours ago, nate82 said:

Mayo is a 1B and not a 3B.  Defensively he is somewhere between average and below average at 3B.

In any event, I'd still take him.  If he doesn't make it at 3B, he's still (likely) a big upgrade at 1B.  They'd need to get some pitching along with him, of course. 

Merry Christmas to everyone who celebrates it!

[BrewerFan]

On 12/22/2023 at 7:24 PM, Jack said:

It's been over a decade since the Brewers had a third baseman that I could feel good about for the following few years.  I'm tired of waiting, and I don't feel confident in the current candidates.

Colby Mayo has to be included...

Of course, knowing my luck, they'd trade for him and move him to 1B...  😂

You don't feel good about Wilken, Black, Boeve, Adams, Bitonti, Baez(further down, but still...huge upside, particularly with Bitonti).

Black is a top 50 prospect, and Wilken will probably be a top 50 by the end of this year. 

We need to be forward-looking, not looking at what we've had in the past years. 

We have hitters coming up at EVERY position(a MIFer opposite of Turang would be great, though EBJ among others are also there). But we NEED pitching. 

We have a #2/3 in Peralta, a #1 to 50IP a season injury risk in Ashby and then 4's and 5's.

Who cares what we've had the last 10? It's about this team, this system and this group.

 

(Welcome to the board, just disagree with this argument...which you're not alone in). 

[jay87shot]

I would really hold out for Mayo buT a deal of Joey Ortiz, Connor Norby, Tyler Wells, and starting prospect would be ok for me. I would move Adames to 3rd and split 2B and SS between Turang, Ortiz, Norby. Black would be my 1st baseman and then Wilken would slot into 3rd next year. 

I still would prefer Mayo and 2 other piece but the O's have enough to make a couple packages solid.

[wibadgers23]

The Orioles could trade for Burnes and still easily have a top 3 farm system. The issue is they are so damn stubborn when it comes to trading prospects. I’ll believe it when I see it.

[BrewerFan]

4 hours ago, wibadgers23 said:

The Orioles could trade for Burnes and still easily have a top 3 farm system. The issue is they are so damn stubborn when it comes to trading prospects. I’ll believe it when I see it.

I get it though. I could see the Brewers...*IF everything goes right with Pratt, Bitonti, Knoth, Misi, and the young guys...being in a similar situation, and I wouldn't want to trade a couple of future stars for a SPer.

I didn't like the Sabathia trade when it happened. I wanted to see the Brewers trade for Grienke. I didn't like the Marcum trade.
I think I was proven wrong on both(you could argue otherwise with Greinke, but that incredible run CC had was the most historic run for a VERY long period).

They probably want to put a team like the Braves offense has on the field(they should start offering extensions now). 

[Jack]

On 12/24/2023 at 2:46 AM, BrewerFan said:

You don't feel good about Wilken, Black, Boeve, Adams, Bitonti, Baez(further down, but still...huge upside, particularly with Bitonti).

Black is a top 50 prospect, and Wilken will probably be a top 50 by the end of this year. 

We need to be forward-looking, not looking at what we've had in the past years. 

We have hitters coming up at EVERY position(a MIFer opposite of Turang would be great, though EBJ among others are also there). But we NEED pitching. 

We have a #2/3 in Peralta, a #1 to 50IP a season injury risk in Ashby and then 4's and 5's.

Who cares what we've had the last 10? It's about this team, this system and this group.

 

(Welcome to the board, just disagree with this argument...which you're not alone in). 

LOL... what part of "I'm tired of waiting" didn't you get...?  😉

Seriously though, other than Black, they're a few years off aren't they?

I get that Black is highly thought of, but I'm old enough to think of 3B as a position that provides average or above-average power.  Black feels like his ceiling profiles to a Jeff Cirillo type.  Mind you, if he reaches that level, it's hardly the worst thing...

Of course, if Mayo doesn't stick at 3B, then I reserve the right to change my entire argument to wanting a 1B with power, average and OBP.   😜 

Thanks for the welcome!

[BrewerFan]

5 hours ago, Jack said:

LOL... what part of "I'm tired of waiting" didn't you get...?  😉

Seriously though, other than Black, they're a few years off aren't they?

I get that Black is highly thought of, but I'm old enough to think of 3B as a position that provides average or above-average power.  Black feels like his ceiling profiles to a Jeff Cirillo type.  Mind you, if he reaches that level, it's hardly the worst thing...

Of course, if Mayo doesn't stick at 3B, then I reserve the right to change my entire argument to wanting a 1B with power, average and OBP.   😜 

Thanks for the welcome!

Well, Wilken, the all-time leader in HRs in the ACC, he'll likely start in AA.

Boeve is looking at AA next year. Two advanced bats who can play 3B and two big power prep bats with massive upside on top of what we already had.

Black might not have great power, but...I don't really care if he has a .370 OBP, steals 30 bases, and hits 15-20 HRs and 40 doubles. 

If Wilken develops as expected or as we hope, he's our 3B. Boeve, they're playing at 2B, but can play 3rd. He's probably more of a Cirillo-type player.

 

But the big thing here...when Chourio and all the young OF prospects we've got are up and slugging in 2-3 years and we've got an elite offense, what we're going to miss then...is dominant starting pitching. 

We drafted heavily on the offensive side, taking an entirely different approach...which takes 4-5 years to pay off(longer with the international FAs, but after Lara, we lost our picks and sat out for two years before investing in the Dominican facilities and the scouting. So we've got the offensive prospects coming, and while I get the impatience, what we need are guys we can build into TOR-type arms...IMO.

All that to say...we need pitching more than we need a 3B.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Are we forgetting about Eric Brown? 

[phnxcrew]

I’ve advocated for including williams With burnes to Baltimore for some time.  It would solve all of Baltimore’s needs and the brewers getting multiple (talent wise) future all stars.  If im the orioles ownership I’m jumping all over it.  They have been rebuilding for so long in a big market 

[brewcrewdue80]

23 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Well, Wilken, the all-time leader in HRs in the ACC, he'll likely start in AA.

Boeve is looking at AA next year. Two advanced bats who can play 3B and two big power prep bats with massive upside on top of what we already had.

Black might not have great power, but...I don't really care if he has a .370 OBP, steals 30 bases, and hits 15-20 HRs and 40 doubles. 

If Wilken develops as expected or as we hope, he's our 3B. Boeve, they're playing at 2B, but can play 3rd. He's probably more of a Cirillo-type player.

 

But the big thing here...when Chourio and all the young OF prospects we've got are up and slugging in 2-3 years and we've got an elite offense, what we're going to miss then...is dominant starting pitching. 

We drafted heavily on the offensive side, taking an entirely different approach...which takes 4-5 years to pay off(longer with the international FAs, but after Lara, we lost our picks and sat out for two years before investing in the Dominican facilities and the scouting. So we've got the offensive prospects coming, and while I get the impatience, what we need are guys we can build into TOR-type arms...IMO.

All that to say...we need pitching more than we need a 3B.

Gasser, Misiorowski,  and Carlos Rodriguez  say hello from AA-AAA. Ashby's health has hindered where the team would be at with his Starts from the rotation.  There's Freddy who was informed he tipped pitches early last season.  They have so.e bodies. They have some trade chips, 2024 draft picks to add arms.  They are in a good place with arms in my opinion.  We are finding out how the club can't pay a superior rotation when together at same time. Hader was traded, Burnes drama, Woodruff, Houser, Williams future. So we have Freddy-Ashby-trio of Miserioski- Rodriguez-Gasser who with Uribe as the influx of payroll SPs they wouldn't want a draft/sign gap.

I see Bradley Blaylock is a TJ guy returned and kept from rule 5 who along with Crow are SP backends that need buildup time over these next 2 seasons to make an impact. 

 

The hitting approach has been ongoing in 1st rds for how long now? Part of it, is, is it an approach? Or best player available for signing that dropped to them?  Don't think they've ever heavily sign an international SP.   Anyway this rant is sorta off topic to Orioles. Any trade you would hope to get the highest upside in player acquired imo. I dislike some ideas giving up Burnes for X prospect when they give off vibes of just a #3, with a 2WAR infielder who if, can be a 3+WAR type.  Sure the 2 are better than Burnes long term, but not the ceiling.  Mayo at 3b, Wilken at 3b one of them moved to 1b. The ceiling in Mayo is what needs to be sought after.

[SF70]

4 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Gasser, Misiorowski,  and Carlos Rodriguez  say hello from AA-AAA. Ashby's health has hindered where the team would be at with his Starts from the rotation.  There's Freddy who was informed he tipped pitches early last season.  They have so.e bodies. They have some trade chips, 2024 draft picks to add arms.  They are in a good place with arms in my opinion.  We are finding out how the club can't pay a superior rotation when together at same time. Hader was traded, Burnes drama, Woodruff, Houser, Williams future. So we have Freddy-Ashby-trio of Miserioski- Rodriguez-Gasser who with Uribe as the influx of payroll SPs they wouldn't want a draft/sign gap.

I see Bradley Blaylock is a TJ guy returned and kept from rule 5 who along with Crow are SP backends that need buildup time over these next 2 seasons to make an impact. 

 

The hitting approach has been ongoing in 1st rds for how long now? Part of it, is, is it an approach? Or best player available for signing that dropped to them?  Don't think they've ever heavily sign an international SP.   Anyway this rant is sorta off topic to Orioles. Any trade you would hope to get the highest upside in player acquired imo. I dislike some ideas giving up Burnes for X prospect when they give off vibes of just a #3, with a 2WAR infielder who if, can be a 3+WAR type.  Sure the 2 are better than Burnes long term, but not the ceiling.  Mayo at 3b, Wilken at 3b one of them moved to 1b. The ceiling in Mayo is what needs to be sought after.

Impact or go with holding Burnes for the pick & pool money that gives this team’s elite amateur draft department the ammo to add more impact thru the draft.

I think the prospect-procurement systems are doing a spectacular job as is. 

Internationally spending money on positionals while trying to scout Nicaragua and find cheap pitching seems to be working quite well. Trying to project ahead with 14 year old pitchers isn’t a good gamble financially imo.

Domestically, this team’s PDS is doing a great job finding pitching in the JC ranks that isn’t scouted as heavily, allowing us to find diamonds in that realm. 

Johnson & co. have really nailed the last few drafts adding positional talent to the system.

This teams future success will be assured as long as they keep the prospect-procurement systems strong like they have right now.

[BrewerFan]

11 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Gasser, Misiorowski,  and Carlos Rodriguez  say hello from AA-AAA.

Sure. And I'm excited about them. I think it's waaay to premature to call Misiorowski a TOR arm and I don't believe Gasser or Rodriguez profile as top of the rotation type pitchers either. They're both more likely to be #3s. Not guys you'd prefer to Game 1. And if they are, awesome. Having more starting pitchers won't be a waste.

Misiorowski is a unique talent, but...he's thrown 73 total innings, many believe he'll be a reliever. That seems to be solely because of his delivery and being a little wild, but the point is, there's still a long way to go from turning him into an ace at the Major League level. 

To be clear, I don't think we've got this baren system with regards to starting pitching, but our system is ranked as high as 3rd on the backs of the position prospects, not the pitching prospects. 

11 hours ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

Anyway this rant is sorta off topic to Orioles. Any trade you would hope to get the highest upside in player acquired imo.

Right, I wouldn't want to trade Burnes for a pitcher just for the sake of it if a team is offering a potential middle-of-the-order bat. My preference would just be to find a team that fits better. Also, as pointed out, the Os seem to be hoarding their prospects.

I'd be looking at the Phillies. If you could get a guy like Painter+2 lower-level prospects for Burnes and Williams? That's a deal I'd make. Abel as well. The Rangers are a team that may be more willing to be patient now, but they may want to double down after a WS. The Jays, the Giants. Teams that may think they've got a reasonable path toward re-signing Burnes after the season would also help. Doubt that'd be the Orioles. 

I also would trust the Brewers FO. I didn't like the Taylor/Houser trade, but...the only trade they've made that's been really bad(IMO) has been the Reece Olson trade. The marks on the other side of the ledger outweigh that by quite a bit.

[Madhawk23]

21 hours ago, phnxcrew said:

I’ve advocated for including williams With burnes to Baltimore for some time.  It would solve all of Baltimore’s needs and the brewers getting multiple (talent wise) future all stars.  If im the orioles ownership I’m jumping all over it.  They have been rebuilding for so long in a big market 

I’m with you 100% on this. It just makes WAY too much sense. O’s have an abundance of prospects at positions of need for us and I don’t think they’ll have room for all of these guys on their MLB club. Give us Mayo, Hall and one of Westburg/Ortiz/Norby for Burnes and Williams….and let’s get this done already!

[Lathund]

On 12/23/2023 at 7:07 PM, wntrtxn21 said:

If the Brewers made this deal what would they do for pitching? Peralta, an aging Miley, Ashby coming off a major injury, and?? What would their ceiling be, 70-72 wins?

You're seriously overestimating the impact of even an elite starter if you think that losing Burnes has *that* kind of impact. Replace Burnes' 2023 innings pitched and ERA with even just a 4.50 ERA pitcher (or pitcher(s)), and how many runs/wins do you think that equates to? 

Answer is ~0.15 ERA increase overall, or ~24 runs total, or 2-3 wins. If you want to add some to that due to the likely replacement pitching fewer innings, necessitating more IP by relievers, some more shuffling of the backend etc then go ahead. Still doesn't go beyond a few wins. It's not nothing, but the return for Burnes along with spending his $14m or so salary elsewhere will also make up for some of that. 

Even just losing Burnes and going into the season with the current remaining roster has a ceiling above 72 wins. And more moves will be made, even if they're not big or flashy.