Will Phillies get desperate?

[Madhawk23]

With the Dodgers going BIG this winter, will there be any desperation on the Phillies part to try to match them to a certain extent? They’ve got to be really hungry for a championship, no? Could we entice them with a Burnes and Williams offer? 
 

Would an Abel, Aiden Miller, McGarry and Kerkering package get it done on both sides? Or, does one side say no to that deal? Would Arnold want Painter instead of Abel?

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, Madhawk23 said:

With the Dodgers going BIG this winter, will there be any desperation on the Phillies part to try to match them to a certain extent? They’ve got to be really hungry for a championship, no? Could we entice them with a Burnes and Williams offer? 
 

Would an Abel, Aiden Miller, McGarry and Kerkering package get it done on both sides? Or, does one side say no to that deal? Would Arnold want Painter instead of Abel?

Yes, I'd want Painter rather than Abel, but I can't imagine the Phills give up that much for a rental. 

I was thinking Painter and then maybe Kerkering and McFarlane, but that's a big-big package for 3 years total of pitching(albeit exceptional pitching). 

 

[bigred]

9 hours ago, Madhawk23 said:

With the Dodgers going BIG this winter, will there be any desperation on the Phillies part to try to match them to a certain extent? They’ve got to be really hungry for a championship, no? Could we entice them with a Burnes and Williams offer? 
 

Would an Abel, Aiden Miller, McGarry and Kerkering package get it done on both sides? Or, does one side say no to that deal? Would Arnold want Painter instead of Abel?

Even if the Phillies agreed to an extension with Burnes prior to a trade, I highly doubt they'd give up 4 of their top 7 prospects. Imo, that's just wishful thinking. 

[Lloyd330]

[Madhawk23]

31 minutes ago, Lloyd330 said:

Yeah, the trade simulator definitely had my initial trade package working out just fine for both teams.  In fact, it actually had the Phillies getting more value.  Obviously, that's just due to the fact that it's not assigning a high value to Miller yet, since he was a HS kid just drafted this past summer.  Guessing the Phils wouldn't want to give up two of their top 3-4 prospects in a deal, but I think they'd have to do that if they wanted to get both Burnes and Williams.  Would definitely help them match up better against the mighty Dodgers over the next year or two.  

[Scooterfletcher]

Abel and Kerkering with a lotto ticket gets it done for Burnes for me

[jay87shot]

Abel/Painter and Christopher Sanchez would be my ask.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Right now the Phil's are focused on giving Wheeler a massive extension...and since he's a better pitcher than Burnes is I don't see them being a match via trade.

I can see the Braves being an interesting fit for Burnes in that division, though.

[bigred]

If Burnes was traded to Phiily, I wouldn't mind George Klassen being a part of the return. Howitzer arm, but with control issues, apparently.. Also had Tommy John early in college. 

[Matt Breen]

I'm going to throw out a crazy idea to the Phillies:

Phillies get: Corbin Burnes and Devin Williams.

Brewers get: RHP Andrew Painter, RHP Mick Abel, 3B Aiden Miller, OF Nick Castellanos, and $24m dollars (spread out over Castellanos' contract at $8m per year).

Why for the Phillies: They don't have a closer, and - obviously - Williams is the best in the business - and they have him for at least two years. Burnes gives them a formidable rotation, and they have shown a willingness to spend on starting pitching, so they would at least have a chance to resign him after next season. Moving Castellanos is a plus for them - he's owed $60m over the next three years - and they have an overabundance of bad defense bats (Bohm, Schwarber) to move to DH - thus improving their defense. They pay down Castellanos' contract by $8m per year, but still don't take on a ton of salary in this move. 

This trade would put Philly in the ballpark with the Dodgers and Braves. A rotation of Burnes, Nola and Wheeler would be pretty amazing - plus with a closer like Williams at the end of the game. That's hard to beat.

Why not for the Philly: it's giving up three of their top prospects, including two guys in the top 50. That's hard to do. They are already an old team, and this really sucks the system of young talent. 

Why for the Brewers: Painter and Abel are both highly ranked arms. We could really use that. They might not help us in 2024, but by 2025 they could be knocking at the door and really help fill out the rotation for years. Miller is a nice prospect - just 19 years old - and a first round pick last year. So he's a ways away - but guys like this are always nice to have. 

Castellanos is the big risk. You are mitigating some of that by limiting his cost - essentially pricing him at $12m/year for three years. I think that's manageable for Milwaukee. The guy will be 32 years old at the start of the next season. He's been erratic with his power - but he's averaged 27 HR per year over the last three years. He doesn't walk a ton, and he strikes out a lot, but he's a consistent average hitter. I'm guessing we could count on him for 20-25 HR and .270+ BA. One thing to note - Castellanos pounds lefties - something we could really use. He's good against right handers - but great against lefties.

The big question would be where to play Castellanos. He hasn't played 3B in six years - and he was bad then - so I wouldn't pencil him in there. I'm surprised he's never played 1B, and it might be something to experiment with. However, he might be regulated to DH with the occasional appearance in the OF.

Shedding Williams and Burnes salaries - and taking on Castellanos at $12m, still leaves us with some room to spend. Perhaps adding starter on a one-year deal for 2024 would help fill Burnes' spot.

Why not for the Brewers: We are worse in 2024. No question about that.

And Castellanos, as noted, has been an erratic bat. He could become a costly mistake. On the other hand, if he hits 25 HR and .275, we are thrilled. Also, if he can't play 1B, it means Yelich has to for sure stay in LF (as opposed to player DH). This keeps our younger outfielders on the bench (Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer, Choriou). the Brewers seem to value versatility, and having Yelich and Castellanos hamstring's them to a degree - especially if Castellanos is limited to DH.

Conclusion: This deal essentially trades future potential for a 'win now' mentality. For Philadelphia, 2024 might be one of their best chances to win a title - especially with Ohtani not pitching in 2024. So an all-in move might be their best option. 

For the Brewers, it puts their 2024 at risk, but adds some unquestioned talent for the future. Plus it secures a quality, right-handed power bat for a few years. Albeit one who is limited defensively. 

[sveumrules]

6 minutes ago, reillymcshane said:

Why for the Phillies: They don't have a closer,

FanGraphs depth charts currently has the Phillies bullpen first in MLB.

Jose Alvarado (74 IP | 3.03 ERA | 3.34 FIP | 1.7 WAR) has essentially the same projection as Devin Williams (66 IP | 3.09 ERA | 3.26 FIP | 1.4 WAR).

[TURBO]

2 hours ago, sveumrules said:

FanGraphs depth charts currently has the Phillies bullpen first in MLB.

Jose Alvarado (74 IP | 3.03 ERA | 3.34 FIP | 1.7 WAR) has essentially the same projection as Devin Williams (66 IP | 3.09 ERA | 3.26 FIP | 1.4 WAR).

Meh, then you simply have Alvarado pitch the 8th, with Williams as your proven closer.

Imagine that starting rotation, with Alvarado and Williams to lock down the 8th and 9th?  

[Madhawk23]

2 hours ago, reillymcshane said:

I'm going to throw out a crazy idea to the Phillies:

Phillies get: Corbin Burnes and Devin Williams.

Brewers get: RHP Andrew Painter, RHP Mick Abel, 3B Aiden Miller, OF Nick Castellanos, and $24m dollars (spread out over Castellanos' contract at $8m per year).

Why for the Phillies: They don't have a closer, and - obviously - Williams is the best in the business - and they have him for at least two years. Burnes gives them a formidable rotation, and they have shown a willingness to spend on starting pitching, so they would at least have a chance to resign him after next season. Moving Castellanos is a plus for them - he's owed $60m over the next three years - and they have an overabundance of bad defense bats (Bohm, Schwarber) to move to DH - thus improving their defense. They pay down Castellanos' contract by $8m per year, but still don't take on a ton of salary in this move. 

This trade would put Philly in the ballpark with the Dodgers and Braves. A rotation of Burnes, Nola and Wheeler would be pretty amazing - plus with a closer like Williams at the end of the game. That's hard to beat.

Why not for the Philly: it's giving up three of their top prospects, including two guys in the top 50. That's hard to do. They are already an old team, and this really sucks the system of young talent. 

Why for the Brewers: Painter and Abel are both highly ranked arms. We could really use that. They might not help us in 2024, but by 2025 they could be knocking at the door and really help fill out the rotation for years. Miller is a nice prospect - just 19 years old - and a first round pick last year. So he's a ways away - but guys like this are always nice to have. 

Castellanos is the big risk. You are mitigating some of that by limiting his cost - essentially pricing him at $12m/year for three years. I think that's manageable for Milwaukee. The guy will be 32 years old at the start of the next season. He's been erratic with his power - but he's averaged 27 HR per year over the last three years. He doesn't walk a ton, and he strikes out a lot, but he's a consistent average hitter. I'm guessing we could count on him for 20-25 HR and .270+ BA. One thing to note - Castellanos pounds lefties - something we could really use. He's good against right handers - but great against lefties.

The big question would be where to play Castellanos. He hasn't played 3B in six years - and he was bad then - so I wouldn't pencil him in there. I'm surprised he's never played 1B, and it might be something to experiment with. However, he might be regulated to DH with the occasional appearance in the OF.

Shedding Williams and Burnes salaries - and taking on Castellanos at $12m, still leaves us with some room to spend. Perhaps adding starter on a one-year deal for 2024 would help fill Burnes' spot.

Why not for the Brewers: We are worse in 2024. No question about that.

And Castellanos, as noted, has been an erratic bat. He could become a costly mistake. On the other hand, if he hits 25 HR and .275, we are thrilled. Also, if he can't play 1B, it means Yelich has to for sure stay in LF (as opposed to player DH). This keeps our younger outfielders on the bench (Mitchell, Frelick, Wiemer, Choriou). the Brewers seem to value versatility, and having Yelich and Castellanos hamstring's them to a degree - especially if Castellanos is limited to DH.

Conclusion: This deal essentially trades future potential for a 'win now' mentality. For Philadelphia, 2024 might be one of their best chances to win a title - especially with Ohtani not pitching in 2024. So an all-in move might be their best option. 

For the Brewers, it puts their 2024 at risk, but adds some unquestioned talent for the future. Plus it secures a quality, right-handed power bat for a few years. Albeit one who is limited defensively. 

I mean....sign me up for this deal right now.  Would seem to be a win/win type deal for both teams.  Might be a lot for the Phils to give up in terms of prospect capital, but it also feels like their window to win is right now - and they probably need to do something big here to compete with the Dodgers, while also staying ahead of the Braves in their own division.  Getting Painter and Abel would give us two stud pitching prospects to build around for our rotation in the years to come.  You would just hope that one of them "hits" and becomes a legit ace in 2-3 years.  Then, Aiden Miller would give us a high-upside corner IF prospect in a few years to add to that next "wave" of prospects coming up with Wilken, Lara, Pratt, Bitonti, Knoth, etc.  

[wallus]

I would do that trade even without getting any money from Philly. Castellanos would be fine as a DH for a few seasons.

[wibadgers23]

29 minutes ago, wallus said:

I would do that trade even without getting any money from Philly. Castellanos would be fine as a DH for a few seasons.

Yeah I'm with you.  I'd do that trade in a second.  You're getting 3 of the Phillies top 4 prospects, including 2 big time pitching prospects.

[sveumrules]

I wouldn’t want any part of Castellanos, even if the Phils were kicking in cash. If you’re dealing Burnes/Devin, just go for maximum future value and don’t clog up the books with three years of dead money on a player who’s posted a 102 wRC+ and 0.2 WAR over his last 1,229 PA since turning 30.

Painter has tremendous upside, but he missed all of 2023 after his PRP injection from the spring didn’t take which necessitated TJ in July, which will pretty much wipe out his whole 2024.

Missing two straight years is a pretty big hit to his value for me.

Abel is their only other prospect of note even close to MLB, and I’d actually value him above Painter just because at least he threw 112 IP last year.

Control isn’t good (65 BB in those 112 IP) and FG scouting report notes his fastball has suboptimal shape. Apparently he has good spin on his breakers, but inconsistent mechanics limit his ability to do so consistently.

Maybe the Brewers would view him as a guy their dev staff could help to reach his ceiling, but if we’re dealing both of Corbin/Williams, I would hope for a little more certainty from the headliners in the deal.

Miller is pretty much their next best guy and he was just drafted last year, which speaks to the dearth of depth in their system.

This blurb from his FG report should probably give Brewers fans pause as well…

”The power potential here is exciting and gives Miller an everyday player’s ceiling, but after Kieboom, Keston Hiura, and the rocky history of other hitters whose hand paths work like this, readers should know there’s hit tool risk here.“

[SF70]

18 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

I wouldn’t want any part of Castellanos, even if the Phils were kicking in cash. If you’re dealing Burnes/Devin, just go for maximum future value and don’t clog up the books with three years of dead money on a player who’s posted a 102 wRC+ and 0.2 WAR over his last 1,229 PA since turning 30.

Painter has tremendous upside, but he missed all of 2023 after his PRP injection from the spring didn’t take which necessitated TJ in July, which will pretty much wipe out his whole 2024.

Missing two straight years is a pretty big hit to his value for me.

Abel is their only other prospect of note even close to MLB, and I’d actually value him above Painter just because at least he threw 112 IP last year.

Control isn’t good (65 BB in those 112 IP) and FG scouting report notes his fastball has suboptimal shape. Apparently he has good spin on his breakers, but inconsistent mechanics limit his ability to do so consistently.

Maybe the Brewers would view him as a guy their dev staff could help to reach his ceiling, but if we’re dealing both of Corbin/Williams, I would hope for a little more certainty from the headliners in the deal.

Miller is pretty much their next best guy and he was just drafted last year, which speaks to the dearth of depth in their system.

This blurb from his FG report should probably give Brewers fans pause as well…

”The power potential here is exciting and gives Miller an everyday player’s ceiling, but after Kieboom, Keston Hiura, and the rocky history of other hitters whose hand paths work like this, readers should know there’s hit tool risk here.“

I think this might be the first time I’ve ever disagreed with anything you’ve said on this site, but getting Painter in this deal would be a coup. BA has him at 70, which is ace material. TJ is routine, so ‘25 to shake off the rust, ‘26 to buildup innings, ‘27 we have our ace and for 4 seasons.

I can hardly breathe thinking of a Painter-Misiorowski 1-2 for 6 seasons.

If we can get Abel to reach his potential then we have 2 ace’s and a #1 leading our rotation, if not a #3 is a nice fallback.

Don’t care about Castellanos. With the money from Philly we can get rid of him by trade. Miller I don’t care about either.

This trade improves our chances of a WS from ‘26-30 by a good amount. No way Philadelphia is trading Painter tho so this is just a fun dream.

[sveumrules]

24 minutes ago, SF70 said:

TJ is routine, so ‘25 to shake off the rust, ‘26 to buildup innings, ‘27 we have our ace and for 4 seasons.

TJ is pretty routine at this point, but TJ after a failed PRP and then two whole missed seasons adds some more uncertainty into the mix.

Hitting that rehab timeline with no further setbacks would be a best case scenario, sure, but that’s rarely how pitching development timelines play out.

That said, I agree the Phillies are unlikely to deal Painter because the ceiling is so high. They are also better positioned to gamble on it than the Brewers are.

If he goes Sixto Sanchez on them, oh well, they can buy another FA pitcher. If he did the same for us, we just traded away our two best reload assets for nothing and set back the rebuild by howsoever many years.

That’s why I think if the Brewers were to move both Burnes/Williams in one trade they would target a headliner with less risk in their profile and on a faster timeline than Painter.

Casuals will be peeved no matter what if we deal Corbin/Devin, but if we deal them for a pitcher who is hurt and won’t even pitch this year…oh man, Brewers internet might explode and 69% of the ticket reps would probably quit.

[SF70]

9 hours ago, sveumrules said:

TJ is pretty routine at this point, but TJ after a failed PRP and then two whole missed seasons adds some more uncertainty into the mix.

Hitting that rehab timeline with no further setbacks would be a best case scenario, sure, but that’s rarely how pitching development timelines play out.

That said, I agree the Phillies are unlikely to deal Painter because the ceiling is so high. They are also better positioned to gamble on it than the Brewers are.

If he goes Sixto Sanchez on them, oh well, they can buy another FA pitcher. If he did the same for us, we just traded away our two best reload assets for nothing and set back the rebuild by howsoever many years.

That’s why I think if the Brewers were to move both Burnes/Williams in one trade they would target a headliner with less risk in their profile and on a faster timeline than Painter.

Casuals will be peeved no matter what if we deal Corbin/Devin, but if we deal them for a pitcher who is hurt and won’t even pitch this year…oh man, Brewers internet might explode and 69% of the ticket reps would probably quit.

Great points as usual.

Since I don’t think the Phillies will trade Painter anyhow I’ll try and stop thinking of a Painer-Misiorowski 1-2. 

Agree if the team trades Burnes they will want the headliner to impact the team sooner rather than later, preferably this season.

[Playing Catch]

As hypothetical trades go, I like this one.