Concerns That Starting Pitcher Trade Market Has Stalled

[Brock Beauchamp]

All quiet on the pitcher front.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com wrote this excellent write-up about both the reliever and starting pitcher winter markets. While the reliever free agent market seems to have stalled on Josh Hader, Feinsand goes on to point out that the starting pitching market hasn't fared much better with several high-profile free agents still on the market, headlined by Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery.

In a cascading effect, this has caused the starting pitcher trade market to be equally slow, so much so that one NL executive is quoted saying "I don’t think the trade market will be very hot in the next month". Other executives stated that it's unlikely White Sox starter Dylan Cease will be moved due to his high asking price and there are doubts surrounding Guardians starter Shane Bieber.

Is this a positive development for the Brewers and does it make a Corbin Burnes trade more or less likely?

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[nate82]

14 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Is this a positive development for the Brewers and does it make a Corbin Burnes trade more or less likely?

It is neutral because the Brewers also have the same high asking price for Burnes.  I posted an article from the Athletic previously about a Burnes trade to the Red Sox that went absolutely no where. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, nate82 said:

It is neutral because the Brewers also have the same high asking price for Burnes.  I posted an article from the Athletic previously about a Burnes trade to the Red Sox that went absolutely no where. 

I've heard rumors from other teams about Burnes and they went absolutely nowhere as well. One in particular seems entirely dead at this point.

[wibadgers23]

5 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I've heard rumors from other teams about Burnes and they went absolutely nowhere as well. One in particular seems entirely dead at this point.

From what you have heard, Is Arnold's asking price just way too much?  My fear is that the Brewers are being so unreasonable in their asking price, that teams are just not even trying at this point.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

From what you have heard, Is Arnold's asking price just way too much?  My fear is that the Brewers are being so unreasonable in their asking price, that teams are just not even trying at this point.

I haven't been able to nail down specific players, only that the ask is really big, as it should be.

The Brewers letting it ride with Burnes makes sense, as they can compete in 2024 and then QO him at the end of the season. It's not a perfect option but it's not terrible, either.

What the White Sox are doing with Cease seems insane to me. If they go into Opening Day with him as the starter, what a mess.

[nate82]

Just now, Brock Beauchamp said:

I haven't been able to nail down specific players, only that the ask is really big, as it should be.

The Brewers letting it ride with Burnes makes sense, as they can compete in 2024 and then QO him at the end of the season. It's not a perfect option but it's not terrible, either.

What the White Sox are doing with Cease seems insane to me. If they go into Opening Day with him as the starter, what a mess.

I don't think it is a mess for the White Sox.  They need to add a lot of talent to their minor leagues.  They have Cease who is a good #3 or #4 type pitcher with a reasonable amount of control and cost.  They should be getting a lot back for Cease.  Baltimore is the best fit for the White Sox but unfortunately for them that means they will have to take a lower deal than they would be comfortable with.

I have heard none of the Orioles top 5 prospects are available in a trade.  One person familiar with the White Sox has said they got absolutely no where with the Orioles and a deal died before even exchanging names for Cease.  The White Sox also had a discussion with the Braves and that went no where.  They also said another team talked with the White Sox but that is as far as it got for Cease.  Teams were also told no on Robert and he is not available.  He also said the Brewers checked in on the White Sox to see if they would deal Jimenez and that didn't go anywhere either.  The White Sox will not give their players away and have high costs for Jimenez and Cease.  They didn't say how high but they don't believe Cease or Jimenez will get moved.  They put the chances at 10% that either gets moved and less so for Cease than Jimenez. 

Take this with a fine grain of salt.  I have known this person for a long time now and they have been right about other White Sox moves in the past but some of these may just be rumors and they were just repeating what they have heard.  Though the Cease stuff they are very confident in.  

[Brewcrew82]

35 minutes ago, nate82 said:

I don't think it is a mess for the White Sox.  They need to add a lot of talent to their minor leagues.  They have Cease who is a good #3 or #4 type pitcher with a reasonable amount of control and cost.  They should be getting a lot back for Cease.  Baltimore is the best fit for the White Sox but unfortunately for them that means they will have to take a lower deal than they would be comfortable with.

I have heard none of the Orioles top 5 prospects are available in a trade.  One person familiar with the White Sox has said they got absolutely no where with the Orioles and a deal died before even exchanging names for Cease.  The White Sox also had a discussion with the Braves and that went no where.  They also said another team talked with the White Sox but that is as far as it got for Cease.  Teams were also told no on Robert and he is not available.  He also said the Brewers checked in on the White Sox to see if they would deal Jimenez and that didn't go anywhere either.  The White Sox will not give their players away and have high costs for Jimenez and Cease.  They didn't say how high but they don't believe Cease or Jimenez will get moved.  They put the chances at 10% that either gets moved and less so for Cease than Jimenez. 

Take this with a fine grain of salt.  I have known this person for a long time now and they have been right about other White Sox moves in the past but some of these may just be rumors and they were just repeating what they have heard.  Though the Cease stuff they are very confident in.  

Sounds like the Orioles.  

[sveumrules]

37 minutes ago, nate82 said:

They have Cease who is a good #3 or #4 type pitcher

Among 137 SP with at least 250 IP over 2021-23, Cease comes in at…

97 GS (1st) | 527 IP (15th) | 131 K%+ (9th) | 120 BB%+ (128th) | 79 HR9+ (24th) | 83 ERA- (33rd) | 78 FIP- (16th) | 10.8 rWAR (24th) | 12.6 fWAR (8th)

His K rate is tied with Woodruff over that stretch, his HR suppression is right between Bieber and Rodon, his ERA- is tied with Castillo, his FIP- is tied with Scherzer and Buehler, his rWAR is just ahead of Pablo Lopez, his fWAR is just behind Sandy Alcantara.

That’s way better than a good #3 or #4 type pitcher, I’d say a solid #2 at worst. 

Reign in those walks, and get him a better defense (White Sox -151 DRS is dead last from 2021-23) and there is ace upside in there.

[CheeseheadInQC]

38 minutes ago, nate82 said:

I don't think it is a mess for the White Sox.  They need to add a lot of talent to their minor leagues.  They have Cease who is a good #3 or #4 type pitcher with a reasonable amount of control and cost.  They should be getting a lot back for Cease.  Baltimore is the best fit for the White Sox but unfortunately for them that means they will have to take a lower deal than they would be comfortable with.

I have heard none of the Orioles top 5 prospects are available in a trade.  One person familiar with the White Sox has said they got absolutely no where with the Orioles and a deal died before even exchanging names for Cease.  The White Sox also had a discussion with the Braves and that went no where.  They also said another team talked with the White Sox but that is as far as it got for Cease.  Teams were also told no on Robert and he is not available.  He also said the Brewers checked in on the White Sox to see if they would deal Jimenez and that didn't go anywhere either.  The White Sox will not give their players away and have high costs for Jimenez and Cease.  They didn't say how high but they don't believe Cease or Jimenez will get moved.  They put the chances at 10% that either gets moved and less so for Cease than Jimenez. 

Take this with a fine grain of salt.  I have known this person for a long time now and they have been right about other White Sox moves in the past but some of these may just be rumors and they were just repeating what they have heard.  Though the Cease stuff they are very confident in.  

Not shocked if this is true for the Orioles. Always felt their offers would start with Ortiz or Norby depending on how you have them ranked. Taking the top five off the board is extreme, but part of that is they have five top 50 prospects. How many teams are dangling top 50 guys? The Orioles just have more of them.

[nate82]

16 minutes ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

Not shocked if this is true for the Orioles. Always felt their offers would start with Ortiz or Norby depending on how you have them ranked. Taking the top five off the board is extreme, but part of that is they have five top 50 prospects. How many teams are dangling top 50 guys? The Orioles just have more of them.

For the Orioles I think a starting point for them in a Burnes trade would be Norby/Povich/McDermott as one of the headliners and then two of Wagner, Rhodes, Haskin or Fabian.  Which the Brewers would turn down before they even finished saying Norby.  If the Orioles became desperate then maybe you could get Ortiz from them and then add McDermott to the list of two of.  They have Mayo as untouchable. 

[nate82]

21 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Among 137 SP with at least 250 IP over 2021-23, Cease comes in at…

97 GS (1st) | 527 IP (15th) | 131 K%+ (9th) | 120 BB%+ (128th) | 79 HR9+ (24th) | 83 ERA- (33rd) | 78 FIP- (16th) | 10.8 rWAR (24th) | 12.6 fWAR (8th)

His K rate is tied with Woodruff over that stretch, his HR suppression is right between Bieber and Rodon, his ERA- is tied with Castillo, his FIP- is tied with Scherzer and Buehler, his rWAR is just ahead of Pablo Lopez, his fWAR is just behind Sandy Alcantara.

That’s way better than a good #3 or #4 type pitcher, I’d say a solid #2 at worst. 

Reign in those walks, and get him a better defense (White Sox -151 DRS is dead last from 2021-23) and there is ace upside in there.

I didn't look up his stats and was just going off memory of the last time I saw him pitch and came away unimpressed.  Stats wise you are right he is closer to a #2 at worst. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, nate82 said:

I don't think it is a mess for the White Sox.  They need to add a lot of talent to their minor leagues.  They have Cease who is a good #3 or #4 type pitcher with a reasonable amount of control and cost.  They should be getting a lot back for Cease.  Baltimore is the best fit for the White Sox but unfortunately for them that means they will have to take a lower deal than they would be comfortable with.

I have heard none of the Orioles top 5 prospects are available in a trade.  One person familiar with the White Sox has said they got absolutely no where with the Orioles and a deal died before even exchanging names for Cease.  The White Sox also had a discussion with the Braves and that went no where.  They also said another team talked with the White Sox but that is as far as it got for Cease.  Teams were also told no on Robert and he is not available.  He also said the Brewers checked in on the White Sox to see if they would deal Jimenez and that didn't go anywhere either.  The White Sox will not give their players away and have high costs for Jimenez and Cease.  They didn't say how high but they don't believe Cease or Jimenez will get moved.  They put the chances at 10% that either gets moved and less so for Cease than Jimenez. 

Take this with a fine grain of salt.  I have known this person for a long time now and they have been right about other White Sox moves in the past but some of these may just be rumors and they were just repeating what they have heard.  Though the Cease stuff they are very confident in.  

Oh, the Sox absolutely need to max out Cease's value but if the asking price is so high that rival executives believe he won't be traded at all, they're making a mistake.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Performance matters. Cease was MEH last year.

[wntrtxn21]

On 1/18/2024 at 8:00 PM, nate82 said:

For the Orioles I think a starting point for them in a Burnes trade would be Norby/Povich/McDermott as one of the headliners and then two of Wagner, Rhodes, Haskin or Fabian.  Which the Brewers would turn down before they even finished saying Norby.  If the Orioles became desperate then maybe you could get Ortiz from them and then add McDermott to the list of two of.  They have Mayo as untouchable. 

If any of those packages is the best Arnold could do for Burnes, I'd pass and wait for a much better offer. Povich has gotten worse at every level. At AAA he had a 5.36 ERA with severe control issues. He walked almost 6 every 9 IPs. He's an add-on piece at best. Norby is Hiura 2.0. Weak arm and weak glove. Lots of power and lots of whiffs. Where could the Brewers play him?  Wagner hit .239 at AA and .252 at AAA with 124 whiffs. Rhodes, Haskin, and Fabian are all outfielders the Brewers don't need. Fabian hit a gigantic .177 with 46% whiff ratio at AA.  Rhodes hit .228 at AA.  Haskin is 24 and barely played in AA. McDermott could be a legit starting point, but the rest of the package would have to be better.

[brewmann04]

NO RUSH TO TRADE CORBIN

[Scooterfletcher]

Yankee have several acceptable packages I’d take for Corbin 

[JohnBriggs12]

23 hours ago, KCBrewerfan34 said:

Performance matters. Cease was MEH last year.

But in 2022, he was second in the Cy Young Voting in the AL.  He regressed in 2023, but he didn't miss a start, he maintained a K rate nearly identical to his 22 rate.  White Sox had a horrible team in 23 and were never close to competing.  Cease is still considered a guy with Ace stuff.

[TURBO]

2 hours ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

But in 2022, he was second in the Cy Young Voting in the AL.  He regressed in 2023, but he didn't miss a start, he maintained a K rate nearly identical to his 22 rate.  White Sox had a horrible team in 23 and were never close to competing.  Cease is still considered a guy with Ace stuff.

All true, but no one is currently willing to pay ACE STUFF prices on the trade market.  I have a feeling it's the same thing with Burnes.

[Brewcrew82]

I'd give up Freddy for Basallo....

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/rolling-out-more-random-orioles-thoughts-and-observations

[bigred]

13 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I'd give up Freddy for Basallo....

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/rolling-out-more-random-orioles-thoughts-and-observations

Why? We already have Contreras and Quero.

[SF70]

14 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I'd give up Freddy for Basallo....

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/rolling-out-more-random-orioles-thoughts-and-observations

Not enough.

Basallo probably moves off C full time, to 1B/OF and loses some value because of that.

Now add Mayo and I’d do it.

[jay87shot]

I would love to get full value for Burnes now, I feel like we should get a top 50 prospect, borderline top 100, and a solid 3rd piece. At the deadline we would be lucky to get a top 50 and 2 throw in pieces, if we add a bat or two and legit make an effort to go for it I am fine keeping him. However I am not sure if the current team warrants the lost value by keeping him to August. 

Trading Freddie should get a value of what we traded Yeli for. Brinson was a top 30 prospect, Diaz and Harrison were borderline top 100 prospects, and Yamamoto was a solid mid-tier young pitching prospect. Basallo/Mayo, Norby, Ortiz, McCormick would be similar (not sure we would want Norby and Ortiz), just Basallo and Mayo would be fine for me as well. 

I still think there is a cool 3 team trade to be had with SF and SD, I've posted before. Bogeartz to SF Burnes, Peguaro, Weimer/Mitchell to SD we get Jackson Merrill, Robby Snelling, and Carson Wisenhunt. The Giants get a star, the Pads drop payroll, get an ace, and depth, we get 3 really high end prospect that all could be ready in 2025. (yes the pads would need to find a long term SS, Kim would play there this year).

[Brewcrew82]

4 hours ago, SF70 said:

Not enough.

Basallo probably moves off C full time, to 1B/OF and loses some value because of that.

Now add Mayo and I’d do it.

Basallo's bat is that good,. Like Yordan level. BA thinks he could be the #1 prospect in baseball next year. #10 already. I'd take that next to Chourio even at 1B or DH.

[Brewcrew82]

6 hours ago, bigred said:

Why? We already have Contreras and Quero.

Basallo probably going to move off of C. To 1B or DH.

[SF70]

4 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Basallo's bat is that good,. Like Yordan level. BA thinks he could be the #1 prospect in baseball next year. #10 already. I'd take that next to Chourio even at 1B or DH.

BA is probably highest on Basallo than the others, still need more for 3 years of a top 30-40 starter in baseball.

I’m holding Peralta unless blown away, and since teams rarely trade their best prospects anymore, he can start game 1 in the ‘25 & ‘26 playoffs, then I’ll take the pick and the pool money.