2024 Divisional Rivals Thread

[Playing Catch]

How are we viewing the other teams in our division?

I was looking at the Cardinals projected rotation, and while it looks underwhelming and old at first, Most of those guys have been able to provide a lot of innings, so I don't think there's any doubt that while they aren't any younger this year, they will probably be a good deal better. Jordan Walker could be a real x-factor if he blossoms.

I thought the Cubs were pretty good last year, and while they aren't that much different, they did add Busch and Imanaga. If they sign Bellinger, they would probably be my pick to win the division, even with the weak bullpen. In addition, their farm is probably just as strong as the Brewers.

The Reds are the team a lot of people are excited to see, mostly due to their amazing youth. But youth can cut both ways, Most of their young studs are probably still in that window of development where they could still take a step back, or plateau as simply average ballplayers -- although I wouldn't predict that. Their pitching is probably still the primary question-mark, even with the modest additions. Montas seems to be a guy who could end up being really good, or merely fine.

The Pirates just aren't very good. There isn't much more to say about them.

It should be a tight division the whole season. Admittedly, I'm not feeling very confident that the Brewers can best the Cardinals and Cubs, and it kind of makes me think they should trade Willy and Devin, and look to the future.

[Frisbee Slider]

I don’t think anyone in the division improved enough to overtake Milwaukee.

[Brewcrew82]

I view it as a 4 team race between Mil, CHC, STL, and CIN with any team having a reasonable shot to take it based on how several factors play out. If I had a gun to my head I would probably still pick the Brewers, but I wouldn't feel great about it. 

I do strongly disagree with the prognostications that put the Cardinals ahead of.the pack. Their rotation will be improved, but the additions that they made aren't as needle moving as people think. And Goldschmidt and Arenado are another year older. It will take big leaps from their young hitters such as Walker, Gorman, etc. 

Pirates are behind the pack, but I wouldn't totally rule them out. They've got some nice young talent. 

[edfunderburk]

3 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

If I had a gun to my head I would probably still pick the Brewers, but I wouldn't feel great about it. 

I’m not sure anyone would feel great if he had a gun to his head … 😉

[torts]

Our division is still pretty bad so I like our chances!

[torts]

One day, father time will catch up to goldy and Nolan...

[wallus]

I see the Reds as the favorite right now and the Brewers and Cardinals fighting out for second place. The free agents available could change things however.

[Frisbee Slider]

Has any team had a more disappointing offseason than the Cubs? 

Adding Counsell was their best acquisition?

[SRB]

Sad to say the Cardinals are currently the best on paper. But they were last year too and they ended up being terrible.

[Frisbee Slider]

1 hour ago, SRB said:

Sad to say the Cardinals are currently the best on paper. But they were last year too and they ended up being terrible.

What did Saint Louis do to improve by 20+ games in the offseason?

[Playing Catch]

Just now, Frisbee Slider said:

What did Saint Louis do to improve by 20+ games in the offseason?

In 2023, the Cardinals starters were 19th in WAR, 27th in xFIP, and 26th in ERA.

They have absolutely improved their rotation, even though all of those guys are old, and could implode. But really most of them will probably bring close to league average numbers, or better, and a lot of innings. Similar to how the Brewers offense only needed to be "league average," to really improve the ol' W/L record, the Cardinals merely need to be league average from the bump to make a big difference.

[Frisbee Slider]

52 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

They have absolutely improved their rotation, even though all of those guys are old, and could implode.

Sonny Gray will likely be good. Age 34

Mikolas seems unlikely to improve in his age 35 season.

Lynn seems suspect to have ERA below 4. Age 37 season.

Kyle Gibson’s career ERA is 4.54. Age 36 season.

Matz is seldom healthy but was effective when available. Age 33.

This rotation has plenty of underperformance risk.

[TURBO]

I simply will not count the Cardinals out until they are mathematically out.

Too much history here to act like they won't have a say in the division before all is said and done.

[torts]

3 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Has any team had a more disappointing offseason than the Cubs? 

Adding Counsell was their best acquisition?

I love this so much

[Frisbee Slider]

39 minutes ago, TURBO said:

I simply will not count the Cardinals out until they are mathematically out.

Too much history here to act like they won't have a say in the division before all is said and done.

I wonder if team chemistry will continue to suffer under Oliver Marmol.

Plus, all the legacy players are gone since Wainwright retired.

[KeithStone53151]

21 hours ago, TURBO said:

I simply will not count the Cardinals out until they are mathematically out.

Too much history here to act like they won't have a say in the division before all is said and done.

While I don't think the odds are in their favor, this is the wisest comment in the thread.

I think a lot are discounting the Pirates just a bit too much. They have some really talented pieces. Them staying good for the entire season probably involves going above projections in the first half and adding significantly at the deadline, which would be smart for them if they do indeed exceed projections in the first half. I still think the Pirates are 5th, but I would project no team to win more than 85 and no team to win less than 74 right now.

Reds - 85 wins

Cubs - 83 wins

Cardinals - 82 wins

Brewers - 76 wins

Pirates - 74 wins

[Frisbee Slider]

19 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

Reds - 85 wins

Cubs - 83 wins

Cardinals - 82 wins

Brewers - 76 wins

Pirates - 74 wins

Where do you see 16-win regression?

[KeithStone53151]

Just now, Frisbee Slider said:

Where do you 15 win regression?

I have serious concerns about the rotation. I've gone in depth about it in another thread, so I'll leave it at that. I'm also well aware that my opinion is fairly against the grain at least on these forums. I also believe last years team had a lot of things break right and weren't truly representative of a 92 win team, so my opinion doesn't require 15 win regression to come to fruition.

[Frisbee Slider]

Brewers 2024
1B: should be better

2B: should be better

SS: Adames might improve?

3B: should be better

LF: should be similar 

CF: should be better

RF: should be better

C: should be similar

 

RP: should be similar or at least good

SP: even if you replace Burnes 3.5 WAR in 2023 with replacement level, I think we have depth 

[Playing Catch]

1 minute ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Brewers 2024
1B: should be better

2B: should be better

SS: Adames might improve?

3B: should be better

LF: should be similar 

CF: should be better

RF: should be better

C: should be similar

 

RP: should be similar or at least good

SP: even if you replace Burnes 3.5 WAR in 2023 with replacement level, I think we have depth 

This is actually really reassuring for me, because you're right. There's no doubt the rotation isn't as strong, but the team should be better at nearly every position -- and a deeper bench, too.

[wiguy94]

10 minutes ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Brewers 2024
1B: should be better

2B: should be better

SS: Adames might improve?

3B: should be better

LF: should be similar 

CF: should be better

RF: should be better

C: should be similar

 

RP: should be similar or at least good

SP: even if you replace Burnes 3.5 WAR in 2023 with replacement level, I think we have depth 

The bullpen likely is worse in 2024. They had the 5th highest bullpen WPA of the 21st century (720 different bullpen seasons) last year. They could have the same ERA this season but the likelihood they replicate how clutch the high leverage guys were this season is pretty slim.

[wallus]

I have the offense as being better in 2024. The pitching (especially starting pitching) as being worse. The defense should be similar to 2023 even though we do not know who the 4th starting infielder will be yet. The team should be more balanced which at the very worst should make them more fun to watch.

A guy like Belt to be the RHP masher at DH and backup 1st baseman (no idea who our backup is right now) would be a nice addition. 

[BallFour]

It should be a really fun division, especially if the Cubs sign Bellinger. One thing I noticed is there was a lot of prospects in the top 100 on MLB pipeline from the NL Central. Sure enough there were 25 from the NL Central. Well above the baseline average of 17. 

I really think the Cardinals offense could swing the whole division in their favor. Looking at the pitching staffs they all feel equal to me on paper. So let the baseball gods decide who will be the luckiest and unluckiest when it comes to injuries to pitchers.

The Reds position player depth is really good. 

Can't help but look at guys like Elly De La Cruz and Jackson Chourio and think if they become superstars then the whole calculus of the division changes. I am not putting that expectation on them but there is a world where It does happen for one or both of them.

 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

9 hours ago, BallFour said:

It should be a really fun division, especially if the Cubs sign Bellinger. One thing I noticed is there was a lot of prospects in the top 100 on MLB pipeline from the NL Central. Sure enough there were 25 from the NL Central. Well above the baseline average of 17. 

I really think the Cardinals offense could swing the whole division in their favor. Looking at the pitching staffs they all feel equal to me on paper. So let the baseball gods decide who will be the luckiest and unluckiest when it comes to injuries to pitchers.

The Reds position player depth is really good. 

Can't help but look at guys like Elly De La Cruz and Jackson Chourio and think if they become superstars then the whole calculus of the division changes. I am not putting that expectation on them but there is a world where It does happen for one or both of them.

 

The Cardinals were so, so terrible last year, though. They haven't made a ton of additions. I don't know if they improve that drastically with basically the same cast of characters coming back, especially since many of their bigger bats are already on the decline.

[SF70]

This division is going to really be something special over the next 5+ years with all of the young talented rosters and strong farm systems. 

This season I think the Reds have the advantage providing they don’t get too many sophomore slumps.. Their starting pitching is strong and deep and they have an underrated bullpen. 

I see a 5 team race most of the year with St Louis & Pittsburgh falling off late in the season.