2024 NFL Discussion Thread

[JosephC]

My guess is the 3rd pick would cost the Vikings #11, #23, #108 (4th rounder) and their 2025 3rd round pick.  I don't think it will take another 1st round pick to get up there, but it should take more than just #11 and #23.  The Patriots also need a QB, they will not move out of that spot unless they wind up at least a bit on the plus-side for trading down.

[BrewerFan]

On 3/17/2024 at 6:36 PM, nate82 said:

I think there is more demand this year for a QB and the QB class is better than it was last year.  The draft probably goes Williams and then Maye or Daniels at 2 and 3.  Take your pick on those two at 2 and 3.  To me 11, 23 and another pick is better than what the Bears got last year for the #1 pick and I think that is what the Patriots will be demanding for that #3 pick.  So teams will have to overpay to get the Patriots off that pick.  The Vikings have the draft picks to do it but I am not sure they are that desperate.  Maybe they go 11, 2024 4th round and their 2025 2nd for one of the picks in the 5-9 range.  If the Patriots do go Harrison Jr at 3 then they could go that route with the Cardinals at the 4th pick but at that point there will be a lot of teams trying to jump them to get that 4th pick and they may have to do 11 and 23 to get the 4th pick if Daniels or Maye are available at 4.

I agree, it's just a better draft at the top. CJ Stroud had an outstanding rookie season, but I don't think he was viewed as highly as the top 3 in this draft...and Bryce Young at his size, he certainly wasn't viewed as highly as Williams and Maye. Now there seems to be a lot of helium on Daniels with some arguing he's #2.

It's just a better draft. Jayden Daniels is impressive. I've watched some videos where scouts break down his game and he looks like he's got a huge upside. The one knock is he doesn't like throwing it over the middle and lives outside the hashes. It's usually the other way around.

When you say 3 1sts, you're talking about the 2 this year and then their '25 first, right? Or are you saying #11 and 3 first to move up?

FWIW(and it's probably not much)...CBS has a mock with them trading their two firsts to get up to 5 for JJ McCarthy. That seems like an overpay, but as a Packers fan, I like it.

 

[nate82]

52 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

When you say 3 1sts, you're talking about the 2 this year and then their '25 first, right?

Correct. 

[JosephC]

9 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

FWIW(and it's probably not much)...CBS has a mock with them trading their two firsts to get up to 5 for JJ McCarthy. That seems like an overpay, but as a Packers fan, I like it.

 

No way.  I still use the chart at Ourlads, as up to a couple years ago, tends to trend better with what has actually occurred in the past.

According to that chart-

Chargers get - #11, #23

Vikings get - #5, #69 (3rd), #110 (4th)

-that would be a pretty even deal.

If the Vikings are pretty desperate, I could see them only asking for the 4th rounder back, but to just do #5 for #11 and #23 is borderline crazy to me. 

Now if the completely unexpected happens and QBs go 1 & 2, someone trades up to #3 and takes Harrison, and the Cardinals (who have extra picks) take the attitude of, "screw it, we are just going to stay here and take the guy we want"...meaning the unexpected happens and one of the big 3 QBs makes it to #5, that would change things.  But for JJ McCarthy, I just can't see it with the way the landscape currently sits.

[BrewerFan]

On 3/16/2024 at 9:30 PM, OldHeidelberg said:

Why not just keep Fields as a backup/gadget player? He has talent and is going to just be a backup in Pitt, it’s not like they did him a favor. Bears are dumb.

I'd have just kept him as their starter for a 6th. 

Have people seriously NOT learned it usually doesn't bode well throwing a QB into the first on day 1? 

Caleb Williams is an incredibly talented player, but listening to people with pretty good records evaluating his play and you can really see why they question him as a decision-maker. 

Mahomes, the guy he's most often compared to, what did KC do? They let him sit for a year. They put him in a system with two really good OTs(I think Wright is going to be elite, I don't think Braxton Jones is good...similar to my opinion on Walker).

I think he can still be great, but the Bears are just not a good place to develop a young QB.

. 

 

[BrewerFan]

20 hours ago, JosephC said:

No way.  I still use the chart at Ourlads, as up to a couple years ago, tends to trend better with what has actually occurred in the past.

According to that chart-

No way? We just saw it last year when the Panthers gave up #9, #61, a 2024 1st(#1 overall now) and, DJ Moore was at least worth a 1st.

I don't think charts are particularly useful when a QB-needy team is trying to trade up for what it thinks is their franchise QB. 

SF traded the 12th pick+ a 3rd and 2 future 1sts to move from 12 to 3. I don't think that neither trade was good will have much impact. 

So I don't think 11+23 for 5...is that crazy or unlikely. I'd agree it's stupid to give all that up to get McCarthy...but they may believe he's a Herbert-type QB. I've seen that comp used. He wasn't asked to do much for Michigan, but he's got elite tools. Arm strength and accuracy look good, size and speed. 

If they want to move up to #3 to get Maye or Daniels....then the deal is going to look that much worse. 

I still think Minnesota would be smarter to build that roster up, deal some vets, suck it up and they'll be picking top ~5 next year and they can reset their cap, but I don't think they'll do that.

[JosephC]

I just don't see an overpay for McCarthy at #5.  ESPN has him 18 overall, CBS Sports has him 19 overall, Pro Football Focus has him at 28 overall, Jeremiah at NFL.com has him at 21 overall.  McCarthy will be over-drafted, I woudn't be shocked to see the Vikings take him at #5, but I don't think there is a dramatic overpay for them to get up there to take him.

I think if the Vikings were content to deal #11 and #23 to take McCarthy, the deal would have already happened as that would be one sweet deal for the Chargers and they are probably a team that would be looking to trade down.  Only thing that would make me think otherwise is that, since they traded Allen, that they may be dead set on getting one of the big 3 receivers in this draft and 11 likely takes them out of position to do that.  But still having all their picks, an extra 4th rounder, and all their 2025 picks, they easily have enough ammo to go from #5 to #11 on a sweet deal and then jump back up to get a wide receiver.  Possible the 3rd of the group makes it to #9 and I would have to believe the Bears are looking to move down with that pick since they currently only have 4 picks.

My best guess is that the Vikings get into the top 3 and take one of those guys, McCarthy ends up going somewhere in the #7 - #9 range and a team like the Broncos or Raiders trades up to get him.

[BrewerFan]

10 hours ago, JosephC said:

I just don't see an overpay for McCarthy at #5.  ESPN has him 18 overall, CBS Sports has him 19 overall, Pro Football Focus has him at 28 overall, Jeremiah at NFL.com has him at 21 overall.  McCarthy will be over-drafted, I woudn't be shocked to see the Vikings take him at #5, but I don't think there is a dramatic overpay for them to get up there to take him.

I think if the Vikings were content to deal #11 and #23 to take McCarthy, the deal would have already happened as that would be one sweet deal for the Chargers and they are probably a team that would be looking to trade down.  Only thing that would make me think otherwise is that, since they traded Allen, that they may be dead set on getting one of the big 3 receivers in this draft and 11 likely takes them out of position to do that.  But still having all their picks, an extra 4th rounder, and all their 2025 picks, they easily have enough ammo to go from #5 to #11 on a sweet deal and then jump back up to get a wide receiver.  Possible the 3rd of the group makes it to #9 and I would have to believe the Bears are looking to move down with that pick since they currently only have 4 picks.

My best guess is that the Vikings get into the top 3 and take one of those guys, McCarthy ends up going somewhere in the #7 - #9 range and a team like the Broncos or Raiders trades up to get him.

IIRC, Mahomes was in the low 20s at the time in the draft process when they traded for him. Trey Lance was not 3rd. 

Where a QB is ranked on the big board vs where they're actually drafted are usually two VERY different things. The top 3 players in this draft are not QBs. They'll likely be the top 3 picks. There's no way there should be 5 QBs taken in the top 12...yet ESPN has just that.

You cite CBS Sports. I just gave you an example of them mocking McCarthy 5th to the Vikings(for 11 and 23).
ESPN has Bo Nix 43rd...and going in the top half of the first rd. 

 

As for why the trade hasn't been done yet, it'd be a terrible idea to make the trade now. It doesn't ensure you're going to get the player you want. With more people speculating that Nabers may actually be better than MHJ(or go higher due anyway), you trade up to #5 months before the draft, now the Cards move down(knowing they can still get one of those top WRs) and another team slides in front of you and THEY take McCarthy.

 

You might be right. The Vikings may try and trade into the top 3. And I'd bet that'll end up even more of an overpay relative to the charts that the proposed trade to #5. 

I think your rationale is sound here...I don't think QB needy teams in the NFL are very rational as exhibited by recent history. 

 

[JosephC]

2 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

 I think your rationale is sound here...I don't think QB needy teams in the NFL are very rational as exhibited by recent history. 

 

I agree with you there.  You would think the Packers success over the last few DECADES would show NFL GMs that good things come to those who wait.  Favre drafted 33rd by the Falcons and traded to Green Bay for #17.  Aaron Rodgers #24.  Love #26.  Well maybe Love will end up not being so good, but year one has to make people pretty optimistic.  Yeah, all those other teams need to go all in and get a top 5 pick to get a franchise QB.

Just a couple days ago I had posted the following on a different message board.  It actually started with all the media and other people ripping on Russell Wilson.  I couldn't help but notice that Wilson had a 26/8 TD/INT ratio last year...and really how bad can a QB be with a ratio like that?  So I took an hour or so and cranked some numbers and one thing led to another.  LET ME JUST SAY THAT I DON'T CONSIDER THE QB RANKING TO BE ANYTHING NEAR DEFINITIVE, JUST THOUGHT IT WAS INTERESTING WHEN THROWING IN A COUPLE VARIABLES THAT GENERALLY DO NOT GET THROWN IN.  In particular, I know Russell Wilson is a fumbler and will take sacks and those were the primary reason I looked up and include those as statistics.  I complete agree that they should not be weighted as heavily as other categories, but nonetheless here it is.  I'm guessing most people would look at the list, and roughly speaking, would say it's not so bad.

Post One-

32 QBs with the highest amount of pass attempts in 2023.

Took these six categories-
QB rating
Completion Percentage
Yards per Attempt
TD/INT ratio
Sacks Taken per Attempt
Fumbles per Attempt

For each category, 1st place ranking earned 32 points, 32nd place ranking earned 1 point.

Added all points for each category.

Final rankings:
1. Dak Prescott
2. Brock Purdy
3. Jared Goff
4. Kirk Cousins
5. Tua Tagovailoa
6. Derek Carr
7. Patrick Mahomes
8. Matthew Stafford
9. Lamar Jackson
10. Jake Browning
11. Josh Allen
12. Jordan Love
13. CJ Stroud
14. Justin Herbert
15. Geno Smith
16. Joe Burrow
17. Baker Mayfield
18. Russell Wilson
19. Trevor Lawrence
20. Jalen Hurts
21. Kyler Murray
22. Aidan O'Connell
23. Mac Jones
24. Gardner Minshew
25. Kenny Pickett
26. Sam Howell
27. Desmond Ridder
28. Will Levis
29. Justin Fields
30. Joshua Dobbs
31. Bryce Young
32. Zach Wilson

 Post Two-

If you want a franchise quarterback, you better hope to get to the top of the draft to get him.

Draft position:

Top 1/3rd from previous list
1. Dak Prescott = 135
2. Brock Purdy = 252
3. Jared Goff = 1
4. Kirk Cousins = 102
5. Tua Tagovailoa = 5
6. Derek Carr = 36
7. Patrick Mahomes = 10
8. Matthew Stafford = 1
9. Lamar Jackson = 32
10. Jake Browning = undrafted (we'll count 257 for the math)
11. Josh Allen = 7

Middle 1/3rd
12. Jordan Love = 26
13. CJ Stroud = 2
14. Justin Herbert = 6
15. Geno Smith = 39
16. Joe Burrow = 1
17. Baker Mayfield = 1
18. Russell Wilson = 75
19. Trevor Lawrence = 1
20. Jalen Hurts = 53
21. Kyler Murray = 1

Bottom 1/3rd
22. Aidan O'Connell = 135
23. Mac Jones = 15
24. Gardner Minshew = 178
25. Kenny Pickett = 20
26. Sam Howell = 144
27. Desmond Ridder = 74
28. Will Levis = 33
29. Justin Fields = 11
30. Joshua Dobbs = 135
31. Bryce Young = 1
32. Zach Wilson = 2

Average draft position of top 1/3rd = 76
3 top 5 picks
5 not taken in round 1

Average draft position of middle 1/3rd = 21
5 top 5 picks (4 #1 overall picks)
3 not taken in round 1

Average draft position of bottom 1/3rd = 68
2 top 5 picks
6 not taken in round 1

Amendment - If you want an average NFL starting quarterback, you better hope to get to the top of the draft to get him.

Also note that this list does not include, all drafted in the last 10 years-
Blake Bortles = #3 overall pick
Jameis Winston = #1 overall pick
Marcus Mariota = #2 overall pick
Carson Wentz = #2 overall pick
Mitchell Trubisky = #2 overall pick
Sam Darnold = #3 overall pick

 

[MrTPlush]

10 hours ago, JosephC said:

I agree with you there.  You would think the Packers success over the last few DECADES would show NFL GMs that good things come to those who wait.  Favre drafted 33rd by the Falcons and traded to Green Bay for #17.  Aaron Rodgers #24.  Love #26.  Well maybe Love will end up not being so good, but year one has to make people pretty optimistic.  Yeah, all those other teams need to go all in and get a top 5 pick to get a franchise QB.

 

If the Packers were actually geniuses that could be reliably copied...it would have happened already. Reality is, it isn't that simple. The most important thing is scouting and development. Where you end up drafting them and how much you pay won't matter in the end as long as you actually make them good. Heck, even the Packers weren't patient to get Love. They traded up to get him, and in most eyes, drafted him way earlier than he ever would have been otherwise. 

The problem isn't these teams trading up or drafting guys Top 5. It is the fact their scouting is either terrible or they suck at developing....and of course, guys don't pan out up and down the draft. If you are actually drafting Top 5, it took a lot of dumb within the organization to get there. So, the odds you make a smart decision drafting is an uphill battle from the start. 

If we took a collection of guys drafted Top 5 that failed the last 10 years and instead placed them on competent teams(and probably with more talent/supporting cast)...how many of them have dramatically different career trajectories? Arguably the two best QBs in history (Mahomes/Rodgers) weren't drafted insanely high and sat for multiple years, yes. However, they both got dropped into perfect situations: good coaches, good teams, competent front offices. 

[BrewerFan]

5 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

If the Packers were actually geniuses that could be reliably copied...it would have happened already. Reality is, it isn't that simple. The most important thing is scouting and development. Where you end up drafting them and how much you pay won't matter in the end as long as you actually make them good. Heck, even the Packers weren't patient to get Love. They traded up to get him, and in most eyes, drafted him way earlier than he ever would have been otherwise. 

I don't agree on either count. 

1-The Packers are unique in that they can weather the "storm," for lack of a better word more easily than other franchises as they don't have a meddlesome owner. They closest they've had is a meddlesome President, but that's only been more recent.

2-They traded a 4th late in the 1st rd to move up a couple sports for Love. That's pretty patient. And Love wasn't projected to go lower, he was projected to go higher by most.

This is just one example(and one of the teams rumored to possibly take Love along with Indy);

https://www.patspulpit.com/2020/4/6/21209510/2020-nfl-draft-utah-state-quarterback-jordan-love-popular-mock-pick-patriots-stidham-brady

And I hate doing this because I can't find the link any longer, but it was a analysis of where Gutes 1st rd picks were drafted vs where they were mocked. For instance, Walker was like -22.3. Wyatt was +8. I remember Love was ~+12. Josh Jackson was actually the best value among early rd picks at +16 or something like that. 

The betting line on where Love would be picked was 16.5 and the Chargers didn't settle on Herbert over Love until the last week before the draft. So he was definitely in play for the top 10. He was not a guy drafted "way earlier," than he ever would have been otherwise. I don't get where that narrative came from that he was picked "way earlier," than he should have been. 

5 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

 

If we took a collection of guys drafted Top 5 that failed the last 10 years and instead placed them on competent teams(and probably with more talent/supporting cast)...how many of them have dramatically different career trajectories? Arguably the two best QBs in history (Mahomes/Rodgers) weren't drafted insanely high and sat for multiple years, yes. However, they both got dropped into perfect situations: good coaches, good teams, competent front offices. 

I agree with this, but that's just the point. How many teams that make deep runs in the playoffs have the ownership and guts to draft a QB?

The Saints were a team that many thought might take Love. They didn't have the guts despite the fact that Brees was aging even worse than Rodgers in terms of his physical attributes(or just the fact he was older).

 

It CAN be copied. Teams just aren't willing to do it. They're not willing to take the QB until they need to. 

[HarryDoyle]

so I was talking to a Cowboys fan at work today (but I still like him) and obviously he's not happy about the way their off season is going. Heavily cash strapped and no running back are just the highlights.

[nate82]

Williams or whoever the Bears draft at #1 will be walking into a very decent team.  He will have three options to throw to in Moore, Allen and Kmet.  When has a rookie ever had something like that happen?  It is very rare for a #1 pick to step in and have a three good receiving options and you can even throw in Swift as a fourth option.  The Bears could also draft someone like Nabers or Odunze.  That would give Williams 5 possible options with three of them being WR's. 

The next Bears QB is going to be stepping into a nice spot with all of the options they will have.  It may not be a winning season year 1 but year 2 and beyond should be good. 

[young guns]

Kickoff changes have been approved for a 1 year trial.  https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/nfl-approves-new-kickoff-rule

 

It's gonna take some getting used to, but I'm gonna have to see it live before I can form an opinion I think.  I haven't seen how this will affect onside attempts.

[Team Canada]

1 hour ago, young guns said:

I haven't seen how this will affect onside attempts.

There are no longer surprise onside kicks, you state your intention and the formations revert to the old standard.

[CheezWizHed]

2 hours ago, young guns said:

Kickoff changes have been approved for a 1 year trial.  https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/nfl-approves-new-kickoff-rule

 

It's gonna take some getting used to, but I'm gonna have to see it live before I can form an opinion I think.  I haven't seen how this will affect onside attempts.

For those like me struggling to visualize it... here you go: 

https://x.com/ChrisVannini/status/1772613847473365036?s=20

 

[Matt Breen]

5 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

For those like me struggling to visualize it... here you go: 

https://youtu.be/iNkpLQtcIH4?si=mGptY6TIQb0mSDwp

 

Thank you. That was helpful.

[young guns]

Stefan Diggs to the Texans.  Bill's get back a 2nd round pick(ironically initially owned by the vikings) and also send a 2025 5th and 2024 6th to the Texans.

Man, the Texans might be like really good next year if they avoid sophomore slumps and major injuries.

[SeaBass]

Diggs was pretty meh the 2nd half of last season. It's not like you can blame the QB situation either. Maybe the supporting cast of Davis and Shakir weren't dangerous enough to draw much attention and Diggs saw more coverage but that really hasn't been an issue for him in the past. He might be slowing down. Not saying he can't still be productive but I understand why the Bills would let him go.

[OldHeidelberg]

They got a lot less for Diggs than we got for Adams but most of that I think is Diggs is sort of a cancer. 2 teams got sick enough of his antics to send him packing now despite all the talent. 

[stoutdude04]

3 hours ago, SeaBass said:

Diggs was pretty meh the 2nd half of last season. It's not like you can blame the QB situation either. Maybe the supporting cast of Davis and Shakir weren't dangerous enough to draw much attention and Diggs saw more coverage but that really hasn't been an issue for him in the past. He might be slowing down. Not saying he can't still be productive but I understand why the Bills would let him go.

Saw something that pointed to the new O coordinator being partially behind that.  Before he averaged like 86 yards per game.  After it was like 40.  Apparently the new coordinator doesnt scheme guys open or something.  Small sample? Sure, but it had some good info on it.

[GAME05]

Diggs doesn't have a long amount of time left on his contract. Just long enough to be a high-level fill-in while one of their really good other WRs maybe steps up into that #1 role.

Odell Beckham was paid a ton of money last year to be not that great. Does Diggs really need to be super-productive again or does he just need to be a reasonable-enough threat to open more opportunities for the other guys?

[young guns]

32 minutes ago, GAME05 said:

Diggs doesn't have a long amount of time left on his contract. Just long enough to be a high-level fill-in while one of their really good other WRs maybe steps up into that #1 role.

Odell Beckham was paid a ton of money last year to be not that great. Does Diggs really need to be super-productive again or does he just need to be a reasonable-enough threat to open more opportunities for the other guys?

And I just saw as part of the trade the Texans voided the years beyond the 2024 season off his contract so he will be a free agent after the season.

[nate82]

Patriots want 3+ 1st round picks to move off of #3.

Like I have said previously the Vikings won’t be able to get the #3 pick without giving up more than what the Bears received for the #1 pick last year.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10115678-nfl-draft-rumors-patriots-seek-more-than-3-1st-round-picks-to-trade-down-from-no-3

 

[BrewerFan]

On 4/4/2024 at 3:28 PM, stoutdude04 said:

Saw something that pointed to the new O coordinator being partially behind that.  Before he averaged like 86 yards per game.  After it was like 40.  Apparently the new coordinator doesnt scheme guys open or something.  Small sample? Sure, but it had some good info on it.

I don't think it was an issue with scheming him open, I think it was when Brady took over, that they stuck to the run game...and it paid off in a big way. Ran for at least 100 years every game the rest of the year and there was a direct correlation between Diggs decline in production and James Cook and the run games increase.

 

More than anything, the Bills were just kneecapped with the salary cap. 

"The salary cap has never prevented a team from signing a player, poor personnel decisions have."

-Andrew Brandt

Von Miller's contract extension was one of those deals. Dawson Knox, Milano...but more than that, they've had some huge injuries(White in back-to-back years) and poor drafts since Josh Allen. Also traded Wyatt Teller, an AP caliber Guard, a position of weakness for them for years after for a short term fix.  

They did what I would hope Gute doesn't do, and that was go all in to win the SB with a young QB. We saw Gute do that with Rodgers...but that made sense. The Packers will hopefully thread that fine line between being aggressive and going for it...and playing it too conservatively with a young(hopefully) Star QB.