Brewers Bullpen (Quarter Season Assessment)

[sveumrules]

About a quarter way into the season and I'd say most would agree that the bullpen has performed pretty admirably between the absence of Devin Williams and making up for a bevy of short starts from the rotation.

Here are their rankings as a unit among all 30 MLB clubs...

158 IP (7th) | 98 K%+ (20th) | 97 BB%+ (6th) | 107 HR9+ (22nd) | 91 ERA- (11th) | 101 FIP- (18th) | +3.14 WPA (3rd)

Despite not excelling at strikeouts or limiting home runs, the Brewers relief corps has come through nonetheless largely on account of limiting walks and inducing soft contact (20.2%, 2nd).

There are currently five staples who have come in better than average by all of ERA-, FIP- and WPA...

Bryan Hudson (22.1 IP)
20 ERA- | 61 FIP- | +1.34 WPA

Hoby Milner (19.1 IP)
46 ERA- | 93 FIP- | +0.58 WPA

Elvis Peguero (17 IP)
91 ERA- | 63 FIP- | +0.23 WPA

Jared Koenig (15.1 IP)
72 ERA- | 87 FIP- | +0.40 WPA

Trevor Megill (9.2 IP)
23 ERA- | 61 FIP- | +0.92 WPA

After that, Payamps has struggled keeping runs off the board (130 ERA-), but his peripherals have been much better (93 FIP-) and he's still on the right side of the WPA scale at +0.18.

Vieira hasn't been particularly good (120 ERA- | 155 FIP-), but he's still mostly done his job of eating low leverage innings with his 20.1 IP second on the team out of the pen and has barely cost the team anything from a WPA standpoint at -0.05.

As far as future options go Uribe is a wild card in more ways than one, but his upside is a legit late inning arm as we've seen glimpses of. JB Bukauskas looked pretty nasty before he went down with injury and should hopefully be an option again at some point later on in the season. And then that Devin guy too.

Also have two out-of-options possibilities down in Nashville that have been dominating International League hitters to start the season...

Enoli Paredes (17.2 IP) 
13.75 K9 | 3.06 BB9 | 0.00 HR9
1.02 ERA | 1.57 FIP

Rob Zastryzny (15.1 IP)
13.50 K9 | 0.59 BB9 | 0.59 HR9
1.76 ERA | 1.65 FIP

Among pitchers with at least 10 IP in the IL this season their 1.57 and 1.65 FIPs rank 2nd and 3rd, sandwiched between Cubs reliever Richard Lovelady (0.61) and some dude named Paul Skenes (1.67).

[shanedog19]

Don’t forget about DL Hall, who could very well be placed into the bullpen upon his return where he excelled last year.

[Jopal78]

Taylor Clarke will most likely be up in a week or so, after knocking of rust in AAA. 
 

The real question is are they gonna be able to keep riding these guys to the end of July and not have them falter?

[jay87shot]

The bullpen has been really solid especially with the innings covered. Payamps hasn't been great but in 14 innings that is really 1 extra bad outing. Viera has had a rougher time but has shown the abilty. The only real disappointment is Abner Uribe and we knew going in there was going volatility there. Add in some finds like Koenig, Baukausus (potentially), and some solid AAA arms and starters returning we will likely have to trade some guys just because there won't be enough room.

Starters= Peralta, Rae, Wilson, Ross, Gasser, Hall, Junis, Myers, Ashby

Pen=Williams, Megill, Payamps, Hudson, Milner, Peguero, Koenig, Viera, Clarke, Uribe, Baukausakas, 

Hoping to stay= Herget, White, Junk

AAA non 40 man studs= Paredas, Zastryzny, Thompson, 

Big AAA stuff=Chirino, Middendorf

Maybe ready later in year=CarRod, Misi

That is eventual 20 guys on the big league squad plus a bunch more deserving. I said it a couple times on the transication forum that it might be a good time to trade Hoby if we can get a high potential prospect and Devin will be on the block if he can get healthy. 

[kestrel79]

Hats off the Brewers staff for finding these guys and developing them what seems like each and every year. This is why we don't spend in Free Agency that much, we don't have to.

But yes my concern is will these guys be able to not burn out the second half? It feels like we use these guys way too much. But we have lots of people coming off the DL, or people we can call up to maybe balance that like Sveum mentioned.

[sveumrules]

38 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Taylor Clarke will most likely be up in a week or so, after knocking of rust in AAA. 
 

The real question is are they gonna be able to keep riding these guys to the end of July and not have them falter?

Hudson’s 24.1 IP rank 8th among relievers this year, Vieria’s 20.2 IP rank 32nd, Milner’s 19.1 IP rank 56th, Peguero’s 18.0 IP rank 82nd. Koenig’s 16.1 IP rank 137th.

Two of the three best relievers on the team have thrown zero (Williams) and 10.2 IP (Megill) so far.

Hudson’s the only reliever with any kind of real workload concern at this point and even then he’s been pretty carefully rested…

0331: 3.0 IP (four days off)
0405: 1.1 IP (two days off)
0408: 1.0 IP (no days off)
0409: 0.1 IP (three days off)
0413: 1.0 IP (no days off)
0414: 0.1 IP (two days off)
0417: 2.1 IP (three days off)
0421: 2.1 IP (two days off)
0424: 1.2 IP (one day off)
0426: 1.0 IP (two days off)
0429: 2.0 IP (one day off)
05/01: 1.0 IP (two days off)
0504: 2.0 IP (three days off)
0508: 2.0 IP (two days off)
0511:  1.0 0 IP (two days off)
0514: 2.0 IP

So that’s zero days off (x2, only threw 0.1 IP each time), one day off (x2, only threw 1.0 IP each time), two days off (x7), three days off (x3) and four days off (x1).

[wallus]

I get the concern about overworking the bullpen. However, I think instead of innings we need to look at pitches. I am confident that the "A" relievers have thrown less pitches than what is typical for innings. (if someone has data on that, that would be great)

Excellent defense and not walking guys have been a key for us and they help limit pitches.

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

Taylor Clarke will most likely be up in a week or so, after knocking of rust in AAA. 
 

The real question is are they gonna be able to keep riding these guys to the end of July and not have them falter?

I doubt it will be that quick. His velo is down like 2 mph from last year.

[Underachiever]

There was preseason concern about regression on the historic WPAs from the past season, but that seems to be ok. 

I'm just amazed that we have a guy such as Vieira to point to as the worst guy in the pen, someone that gets mentioned for DFA, and he's got good stuff, gets low leverage innings. I don't shudder when he comes in the game. I think I'm spoiled that guys such as Koenig, Megill, Payamps just seemingly show up and become excellent bullpen arms. 

[Playing Catch]

The depth in the minors is remarkable as well. Hopefully all of the org's depth allows the Brewers to avoid having to trade valuable prospects for bad relievers at the deadline (e.g. Daniel Norris trade).

[Outlander]

I really don't see a scenario where Williams is traded this season. He will have to show he is healthy somewhere around Mid-July and if he is healthy that is a great guy to have the last couple of months of the season. After the season a decent possibility for trade.

In general there is no real need to trade from the bullpen depth. It only gets tight if they bring up another out of option guy like Paredas. In that case they probably need to DFA Viera. Viera is okay for that role right now but certainly a chance to upgrade that spot.

Do agree that they should be able to avoid trades for marginal guys like Morris and Bush that results in them losing prospects like Olson and Kelly.

 

 

[Jopal78]

2 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

I doubt it will be that quick. His velo is down like 2 mph from last year.

Very well could be, then again they traded two guys who likely will see action in the big leagues to get Clarke. 
 

That they traded more than just “lottery tickets” is the kind of investment which suggests they will want him on the 26 man sooner than later if he’s healthy and ready to go. 

[wiguy94]

25 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Very well could be, then again they traded two guys who likely will see action in the big leagues to get Clarke. 
 

That they traded more than just “lottery tickets” is the kind of investment which suggests they will want him on the 26 man sooner than later if he’s healthy and ready to go. 

Feels like you're exaggerating what we gave up for Clarke. We traded Cam Devanney who best case scenario is a bench IF in the MLB and Ryan Brady whose likely best case scenario is a middle reliever in the MLB. These are very low level prospects that we gave up to get Clarke.

[Jopal78]

43 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Feels like you're exaggerating what we gave up for Clarke. We traded Cam Devanney who best case scenario is a bench IF in the MLB and Ryan Brady whose likely best case scenario is a middle reliever in the MLB. These are very low level prospects that we gave up to get Clarke.

I agree neither profiles as a star in the majors BUT I don’t think I am overestimating. I only wrote both will likely see time in the major leagues. How much time and what their ceiling might eventually be nobody knows. Given how few farmhands actually make it, trading away two guys who will probably cross that threshold certainly isn’t nothing. 
 

 

 

[wiguy94]

21 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I agree neither profiles as a star in the majors BUT I don’t think I am overestimating. I only wrote both will likely see time in the major leagues. How much time and what their ceiling might eventually be nobody knows. Given how few farmhands actually make it, trading away two guys who will probably cross that threshold certainly isn’t nothing. 

Even saying they will probably make it is a reach. Devanney has been a smack average AAA guy for over a year now. Brady has put up solid numbers in the minors but he doesn't strike many hitters out. 

[KeithStone53151]

I was generally wrong about the bullpen, to this point. Going in, they were always going to be worse than last year. Being 10% worse than last year is probably a top 3 bullpen in baseball. I expected the pen to be significantly worse and had a pretty good chance at being worse than middle of the pack. I thought we were so used to being good there, and counted on a lot of breakout guys to maintain...which bullpen arms fluctuate a ton year to year. I was right to a degree in that the breakout guys from last year as a whole are a fair amount worse this year. Peguero, Payamps, Milner, Megill, and Uribe are the 5 I think of from last that really made the bullpen special. Williams was expected to be good, these guys weren't. Milner and Megill are better than last year to this point, Peguero probably slightly worse than last year, Uribe/Payamps significantly worse than last year. I also didn't think the Brewers would again find guys like Hudson and Koenig out of nowhere to make up the production and fill in at the back of the bullpen.

I am a bit nervous about bullpen overuse. The Brewers are dead last in the league in innings covered by a SP at 213 in 43 games. Less than 5 innings per start on average. Milner is on pace to pitch in 75+ games. Hudson on pace to throw close to 100 innings. Counsell was the absolute gold standard in pacing his bullpen for a full season, hopefully Murphy/Arnold are able to find ways to do it almost as good.

[Jim French Stepstool]

3 hours ago, Outlander said:

 

Do agree that they should be able to avoid trades for marginal guys like Morris and Bush that results in them losing prospects like Olson and Kelly.

 

 

That's been a hope of mine for years now, to have enough depth in the organization that come July we don't hear the organization roll out the same old template "We're hoping to add a bullpen arm or two". Looks like we may finally be approaching that.

With the early work Koenig has turned in, unusual depth from the left side. And I have a good feeling Payamps, while maybe not at the 2023 level, will turn in good work from here on out.

Icing on the cake for the shuttle if Bukauskas & Clarke get added to the mix. 

Even if he gets himself right, it'll take some kind of foresight regarding the schedule to figure out a way to promote Uribe while having him unavailable for 6 games. September, or 2025, looks more likely.

[sveumrules]

16 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Even if he gets himself right, it'll take some kind of foresight regarding the schedule to figure out a way to promote Uribe while having him unavailable for 6 games. September, or 2025, looks more likely.

Looking at the schedule the only real advantageous opportunities to "call him up" and serve his suspension before September would maybe be around the All Star Game (three days shorthanded on either side with a big rest in between) or there is a quick stretch with two off days on August 1st and 5th so you could call him up and only be shorthanded for four games in six days. 

[young guns]

I was wondering about that.  Figured coming out of the all star break would be good timing because everyone is rested.  I'm assuming the all star break itself wouldn't count?

[Jopal78]

17 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Looking at the schedule the only real advantageous opportunities to "call him up" and serve his suspension before September would maybe be around the All Star Game (three days shorthanded on either side with a big rest in between) or there is a quick stretch with two off days on August 1st and 5th so you could call him up and only be shorthanded for four games in six days. 

He has a pending appeal of his suspension so upon resolution it likely would be fewer than six games he’d actually be suspended for. 
 

Plus looking at his AAA numbers. 5+ bb/9 and less than a 2:1 k:bb ratio, he has not mastered his command issues so there’s no real reason to bring him back anytime soon.

[Outlander]

They may be waiting out his hearing as well. Don't know how him being in the minors impacts that.

[Outlander]

I must have missed it but according to the Brewers, Taylor Clarke was taken off the IL and optioned on Wednesday so we won't see him up here for a bit.