Who Should The Brewers Be Selling At The Deadline?

[Harold Hutchison]

As of July 4, the Milwaukee Brewers had a 52-35 record. They lead the focus of evil in the National League Central by seven games.

Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Yes, they need help in their starting rotation. Yes, they acquired starting pitcher Aaron Civale from the Rays, but that cost the Crew Gregory Barrios, a shortstop posting solid offensive numbers with the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers at the Advanced-A level. This is not the best way to go about it – not for the team’s long-term future – although, given the injuries, it probably was necessary.

That being said, the Brewers need to sell at the deadline—in 2024—while leading the division with what looks like one of the best offenses in the majors.

Before the pitchforks come out, let’s explain why they need to sell. They have a significant roster crunch coming in the 2024-2025 offseason. Part of this is due to having seven pitchers on the 60-day injured list. Those don’t count against the 40-man roster limit… until the season ends. That’s if the pitchers don’t return, and at least two of the seven pitchers on the 60-day list, DL Hall and Devin Williams, are expected back sometime in July to bolster the staff, so that’s two 40-man spots the Crew has to open up in short order. That number goes to three if Joe Ross makes a return.

Down the road, the math gets tougher, too. Even if you account for the free-agent departures of Wade Miley, Jakob Junis, and Ross after 2024, the Brewers still need to accommodate the returns of Brandon Woodruff, JB Bukauskas, and Robert Gasser to the 40-man at the end of the season, when the injured lists go away. This crunch comes before the Crew even gets to the prospects needing protection from the Rule 5 draft that must be added.

So, the undeniable truth is that the Brewers will need to clear some roster space soon. The usual way to clear the space is to designate players for assignment, waive them, or non-tendering them after the season. However, that denies the team a return on some players who – as we are finding out in 2024 – could be valuable contributors to a major league team.

The good news is they have some talent they can sell for prospects to bolster the farm system or for additional short-term help in the starting rotation. Let’s look over some of the potential assets they could move.

RHPs Elvis Peguero and Joel Payamps
Let’s face it: when Devin Williams returns, the bullpen will shift around a bit. Make that a lot since Jared Koenig and Enoli Paredes are on the 15-day injured list and could return by the end of July. Peguero and Payamps could very well end up at the back end of the bullpen, even though they have been quite capable.

But a back-end-of-the-bullpen guy on the Brewers might be a late-inning option for at least half the teams in MLB. This is where the Crew starts looking to sell at the right price and situation for these two pitchers. Payamps has two years of team control – and Peguero has four. That could only help the Brewers re-stock. At the start of the season, I said they were trade chips and that calculus isn’t changing – it’s becoming more apparent.

LHP Hoby Milner
Milner has one year of team control beyond 2024, and between Jared Koenig, Bryan Hudson, and Rob Zastryzny, the Brewers have controllable lefty relief options. While dealing Milner might seem like the Crew is repeating the infamous Josh Hader deal of 2022, the circumstances are far different – Milner is not a generational talent who is a dominating closer. The return might not be Hader-esque, but the team has plenty of options already on the table.

OF Blake Perkins
Blake Perkins has been one of the big breakouts for the Crew in 2024, a hidden gem signed in the 2022-2023 offseason. That said, it’s clear he is perhaps the fifth-best outfielder on the Brewers, behind Christian Yelich, Garrett Mitchell, Jackson Chourio, and Sal Frelick. Perkins has made some excellent plays and improved his approach at the plate.

That said, it’s about putting the best players on the field, and Perkins is clearly behind almost all of the outfielders on the 40-man. That said, it is also true that he is a fourth or fifth outfielder on the Brewers, but he could start for a few teams – and could be a major upgrade for the Angels or Blue Jays in center field. He’s good enough to fetch a substantial return with five years of team control past 2024.

OF Joey Wiemer
Wiemer has been in AAA trying to re-work his swing. To put it mildly, the results have been mixed with a call-up to Milwaukee disrupting things. That said, in 2023, he showed he had a defense and power mix that made him a solid reserve - or a fourth outfielder.

1B/OF Jake Bauers
Bauers has been a solid left-handed complement to Rhys Hoskins in 2023, posting a .710 OPS as of July 4. That being said, it may be time to flip him. For starters, the Crew will need a place for Tyler Black to get regular at-bats over the short term, and first base could be as good a place as any.

Plus, there is a chance that Rhys Hoskins will move on (he has an opt-out for 2025), and that would require the Crew to look at a longer-term option at first base and DH. Could Christian Yelich make the move? Will Tyler Black settle in? In either of those cases, Bauer is a redundancy, not a complement. If Hoskins returns, Black is a cheaper alternative with greater positional versatility. Either way, the fair thing to do is to find him an opportunity.

What To Ask For?
The Brewers will need to carefully calibrate their asking price. They will certainly want to get assets to assist in the future. Ideally, it would be minor-league players two years away from a Rule 5 decision. Or, they can package a couple of these players for a short-term rental – gaining a net 40-man space (think a Peguero/Janson Junk package to the Blue Jays for Yusei Kikuchi or Blake Perkins to the Angels for Joel Hurtado and Adrian Acosta).

Overview
The Brewers will need some 40-man roster spots by the end of the season – and a few more afterwards. It may be time for them to sell now to free up those spots while netting a significant return that could help the team now or down the road.

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[DuWayne Steurer]

Paredes is 28 and has thrown (checks notes) less than 50 MLB innings. 16 in a brewers uniform. that's not someone you start making long term roster moves for. yes he's been a nice addition, but you dont trade guys who have been staples in the pen for a year and a half (both with multiple seasons of team control) because youre impressed with a month of Paredes. this is the definition of recency bias.

[BrewerFan]

7 hours ago, DuWayne Steurer said:

Paredes is 28 and has thrown (checks notes) less than 50 MLB innings. 16 in a brewers uniform. that's not someone you start making long term roster moves for. yes he's been a nice addition, but you dont trade guys who have been staples in the pen for a year and a half (both with multiple seasons of team control) because youre impressed with a month of Paredes. this is the definition of recency bias.

That said...yes. 

I'm also glad he assuaged my concerns over the Holby Milner-Josh Hader comparisons! I was really worried people may not recognize the difference. 

I'm also now confused about what a "substantial" return looks like if Blake Perkins is going to net one. 

[CheeseheadInQC]

I get what you're trying to do, but man that Angels package for Perkins looks rough based upon their performance this season. They were making prospect lists at the beginning of the year so I'm sure there must be a reason beyond "Well, we've got to rank more than five Angels prospects." But statistically you'd be trading an elite defensive outfielder who isn't completely incompetent with the bat for a guy who'd be the No. 5 starter for the Timber Rattlers and a poor man's Anthony Flores. Acosta would statistically be the worst pitcher with at least 20 innings on the Brewers' ACL team. Look up the stats for the Brewers' ACL team and let that sink in.

[mtsportsfan]

That said..... I kinda like Perkins,understanding that he is the 4th or 5th OF , I could see him as a tradeable piece to acquire a #3 starter who could eat more than 4 innings in start. 

[rolafaive]

Wiemer is expendable, I also would keep Perkins unless you get blown away from another team, how about packaging Wiemer and Frelick for a starter? Monisterio is a streak hitter and average defender, so he could be added to a package, you have talent waiting in the wings to replace all these guys, your problem now is the log jam with pitchers after picking up 2 veterans you're not completely sure of yet, I think Hoskins may opt-in because of his down year, I like Bauer, I don't feel that Peralta is a number 1, your stopper, he is more like a number 2-3, so priority should be a controllable number 1, with expendable ready players and some log jammed minor league players, you can clear room on the 40 man and get that number 1.

[BrewerFan]

On 7/6/2024 at 2:53 PM, DuWayne Steurer said:

Paredes is 28 and has thrown (checks notes) less than 50 MLB innings. 16 in a brewers uniform. that's not someone you start making long term roster moves for. yes he's been a nice addition, but you dont trade guys who have been staples in the pen for a year and a half (both with multiple seasons of team control) because youre impressed with a month of Paredes. this is the definition of recency bias.

Yeah, he's looked really good...but who had him as a contributor coming into the season?

The Brewers have shown they're pretty adept at finding BP arms and they've got more than a couple who should be ready by next year(or sooner). 

Both Henderson and Misiorowski would likely excel as relievers in a less-than-best-case scenario(even right now, though you obviously want both as starters). 

 

[Team Canada]

On 7/6/2024 at 8:21 AM, clancyphile said:

While dealing Milner might seem like the Crew is repeating the infamous Josh Hader deal of 2022, the circumstances are far different – Milner is not a generational talent who is a dominating closer.

I think you accurately explained why these wouldn't seem the same at all.

[Ron750]

Perkins was 3/5 with a HR yesterday. His defense is always outstanding. I don’t think it’s obvious he’s the fifth best. Chourio might have more potential but he has poor plate discipline and is raw in the outfield. 

[biedergb]

Bradley Blalock could be on this list. He has value but is on the 40 man roster, and may be bypassed by several AA arms (Misiorowski, Henderson for sure, and maybe even Wichrowski and Shane Smith), and could be an attractive piece for another organization, and will allow that 40 man designation to go to another player.

[LouisEly]

Who they should be selling:

1. Luis Lara - while he still has value
2. Bradley Blalock - will need to give up pitching to get pitching, and clock has already started
3. Tyler Black - love him, but lack of defensive home makes it tough and he's the most likely to be able to bring back quality pitching with multiple years of control
4. Eric Brown, Jr. - (see Luis Lara)
5. One of Mitchell/Frelick - somewhat redundant
6. Mike Boeve - Ortiz/Turang/Wilken/Black will make it tough to find AB's for him in the infield, deal from surplus
7. Carlos Rodriguez - (see Bradley Blalock)

[biedergb]

1 hour ago, LouisEly said:

Who they should be selling:

1. Luis Lara - while he still has value
2. Bradley Blalock - will need to give up pitching to get pitching, and clock has already started
3. Tyler Black - love him, but lack of defensive home makes it tough and he's the most likely to be able to bring back quality pitching with multiple years of control
4. Eric Brown, Jr. - (see Luis Lara)
5. One of Mitchell/Frelick - somewhat redundant
6. Mike Boeve - Ortiz/Turang/Wilken/Black will make it tough to find AB's for him in the infield, deal from surplus
7. Carlos Rodriguez - (see Bradley Blalock)

I think Lara will be selling low. He is the same age as Pratt and one level above. His defense is legit. He has speed and good bat to balls skills and is “slumping” the past 2 months. He would be a major sell low. And I am a big fan of his game. His defense and running game may be the best of our OF prospects. No power (yet) but he could (yes could) develop more power as a 20-22 year old. So if it were up to me, I’d pass on trading him unless a great trade, so therefore by definition I would not list him as a player to sell.

Black - I agree. He is blocked and is a mlb hitter so will be valued by teams needing a LF/1B/DH. So likely to sell on him  

EBJ - sure but he won’t get much. Is he rule 5 eligible this year? Probably next. So no need to push him if that’s the case.  So we can trade him, just not sure there is value to sell.

Blalock - agree. 
‘Not sure which Carlos Rodriguez. CDRod has limited options and will be passed by Lara/Yophery and a 2024 draft pick. CFRod the pitcher, again selling low. He is just 22 and can pitch. But I won’t not opposed to him in a deal, just not on my list of players “to sell” since it would be selling lowish.

Boeve/Mitchell/Frelick - agree one is absolutely expendable in the right trade, but wouldn’t go out of my way to sell them now since they are controllable for many years and appear to be able to hit (Frelick/Mitchell are just below average at MLB level currently with room to improve; Boeve is league average at AA already). So would not “sell”them, but definitely include one in a trade.

[Brewcrew82]

16 hours ago, Ron750 said:

Perkins was 3/5 with a HR yesterday. His defense is always outstanding. I don’t think it’s obvious he’s the fifth best. Chourio might have more potential but he has poor plate discipline and is raw in the outfield. 

Chourio is literally one of the best defensive OFs in baseball....