2024 Draft Signings Thread

[biedergb]

36 minutes ago, StearnsFTW said:

I've got them at about $2.15MM under slot with 2/2C/3/9 remaining in the top 10 and 12 signed.

 

Seems pretty good to me.

 

If they lose Levonas that hurts.

 

And isn’t DeBery a potential under slot guy as well?

So leaves $2+ million above slot to offer to Meccage and Livonas, and then have extra to put toward the other picks. Didn’t Tobias sign? Or at least post a photo of his locker at the Complex?

[snoogans8056]

6 minutes ago, biedergb said:

And isn’t DeBery a potential under slot guy as well?

So leaves $2+ million above slot to offer to Meccage and Livonas, and then have extra to put toward the other picks. Didn’t Tobias sign? Or at least post a photo of his locker at the Complex?

DeBery is a senior so he's a potential MAJOR under slot.

I think the Levonas stuff is just seeing all that saved money and wanting more of it. I don't blame him, but I don't like it.

[SRB]

If Levonas doesn't sign, at least that would dramatically increase our odds of signing one or both of the late-round guys, wouldn't it? We lose the slot money, true, but we'd be saving whatever over-slot amount Levonas is going to cost.

[StearnsFTW]

43 minutes ago, biedergb said:

And isn’t DeBery a potential under slot guy as well?

So leaves $2+ million above slot to offer to Meccage and Livonas, and then have extra to put toward the other picks. Didn’t Tobias sign? Or at least post a photo of his locker at the Complex?

Yes it was pointed out to me that Tobias signed for about $56k over slot.  I knew he signed, but I didn't hear the bonus amount. 

 

Get DeBerry 400k under slot, and now you're talking 2.5MM under.

 

I'll believe Levonas not signing when I see it.   2.2 MM or so and we can maybe get  some of the later round high schoolers signed. 

[MilwaukeeBeers]

This Levonas news absolutely blows. In my opinion the draft is basically an unmitigated failure if we cannot ink him. Remember that slot disappears completely if he does not sign can't just allocate it elsewhere. 

[MilwaukeeBeers]

13 minutes ago, SRB said:

If Levonas doesn't sign, at least that would dramatically increase our odds of signing one or both of the late-round guys, wouldn't it? We lose the slot money, true, but we'd be saving whatever over-slot amount Levonas is going to cost.

No one is really worth that money outside of maybe James Nunnallee

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, MilwaukeeBeers said:

This Levonas news absolutely blows. In my opinion the draft is basically an unmitigated failure if we cannot ink him. Remember that slot disappears completely if he does not sign can't just allocate it elsewhere. 

Yes the slot and 5% overage from the slot disappears but Levonas was going to sign for well over slot, so him not signing would leave money left over for other picks in round 11-20.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

Just now, wiguy94 said:

Yes the slot and 5% overage from the slot disappears but Levonas was going to sign for well over slot, so him not signing would leave money left over for other picks in round 11-20.

Very true! I just have seen some folks mention reallocating as a way to cover the loss. 

[wiguy94]

7 minutes ago, MilwaukeeBeers said:

Very true! I just have seen some folks mention reallocating as a way to cover the loss. 

This is basically how things are set up.

Scenario where Levonas signs they have $6,313,720 to sign Meccage, Levonas, DeBerry and round 11-20 picks over $150K.

Scenario where Levonas does not sign they have $5,025,580 to sign Meccage, DeBerry and round 11-20 picks over $150K.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Just as a point of reference, the five day 3 high schoolers the Brewers signed last year combined to count $1.3 million against their bonus pool. 

[MilwaukeeBeers]

Do we know if we get a comp pick next year (usually one lower) if he does not sign? Or is that just for the earlier rounds. Also what is NIL money like for baseball it can't be that much in comparison to football and basketball even for the best programs? Not that much viewership for college ball. 

I just think if you're a pitcher drafted that high getting offered a multi million dollar deal why would you ever waste bullets in college? You have one arm injury you lose a year of development and leverage later on. Seems like a massive risk for little to no reward. 

[BallFour]

3 minutes ago, MilwaukeeBeers said:

Do we know if we get a comp pick next year (usually one lower) if he does not sign? Or is that just for the earlier rounds. Also what is NIL money like for baseball it can't be that much in comparison to football and basketball even for the best programs? Not that much viewership for college ball. 

I just think if you're drafted that high getting offered a multi million dollar deal why would you ever waste bullets in college? You have one arm injury you lose a year of development and leverage later on. Seems like a massive risk for little to no reward. 

Yes the Brewers would get pick 68 next year if he does not sign. 

[biedergb]

With a pick that high you would expect there was some intel or insight into what his demands would be. Like some of the HS who by day 2 took themselves out .  Maybe he did but not fast enough or vocal enough.

Last 1-10 rounder not to sign? Was it Covey - who chose not to because of a recent health illness being diagnosed.  Losing the player because of college commitment or sheer $$ is so disappointing, and a very 1990s Brewers thing to have happen. Ugh

[wiguy94]

5 minutes ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

Just as a point of reference, the five day 3 high schoolers the Brewers signed last year combined to count $1.3 million against their bonus pool. 

Nunnallee likely will be very expensive to sign. Probably are talking 7 figures to get him. He was 200 on Pipeline, 98 on Fangraphs, and 52 on ESPN draft boards, so this is a much higher ranked prospect that any we drafted on Day 3 last year.

[CheeseheadInQC]

8 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Nunnallee likely will be very expensive to sign. Probably are talking 7 figures to get him. He was 200 on Pipeline, 98 on Fangraphs, and 52 on ESPN draft boards, so this is a much higher ranked prospect that any we drafted on Day 3 last year.

While he probably didn't match the ESPN rank, Letson was 179 on Pipeline and had the same 35+ rating on Fangraphs in the Brewers' prospect list during the offseason as Nunnallee had on their draft board (Fangraphs' rankings only went to 68 in 2023).

[MilwaukeeBeers]

1 hour ago, BallFour said:

Yes the Brewers would get pick 68 next year if he does not sign. 

Thank you good to know. Maybe that plays a bit into the calculus since this year was a kind of weaker draft. Use the added bonus pool from 68 and whatever comp pick you get from Adames and get some dogs. This is copium. 

In other news kind of cool that we signed Prince's kid as a UDFA. 

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

While he probably didn't match the ESPN rank, Letson was 179 on Pipeline and had the same 35+ rating on Fangraphs in the Brewers' prospect list during the offseason as Nunnallee had on their draft board (Fangraphs' rankings only went to 68 in 2023).

Nunnallee is also committed to Virginia compared to Letson being committed to Purdue. He's going to be way more expensive than Letson to sign.

[Jake McKibbin]

Updated Draft Tracker

[biedergb]

And thinking through this.  If Levonas does not sign it sucks because he could be a very good picture and we lose that bonus money.
On the other hand, if he signs for $2.4M or more it effectively wipes out her savings to (this would be double his slot value).  I thinking is that we lose the slot value money of $1.2M if he does not sign, or we lose that effectively if he signs for double his money.  So unless he is willing to sign for between $1.2M and $2.4M (which sounds unlikely) then it may be best if we do not sign him, take the savings to sign some of the late round draft picks, get another pick next year - and use that money on maybe a stronger draft class.
Anyway that is me trying to rationalize the frustration at both hearing that Yelich's season could be over, and us not possibly not signing our 2nd round CB pick.

[Jake McKibbin]

10 minutes ago, biedergb said:

And thinking through this.  If Levonas does not sign it sucks because he could be a very good picture and we lose that bonus money.
On the other hand, if he signs for $2.4M or more it effectively wipes out her savings to (this would be double his slot value).  I thinking is that we lose the slot value money of $1.2M if he does not sign, or we lose that effectively if he signs for double his money.  So unless he is willing to sign for between $1.2M and $2.4M (which sounds unlikely) then it may be best if we do not sign him, take the savings to sign some of the late round draft picks, get another pick next year - and use that money on maybe a stronger draft class.
Anyway that is me trying to rationalize the frustration at both hearing that Yelich's season could be over, and us not possibly not signing our 2nd round CB pick.

$2.4m would be fine, I think it's if it starts approaching $3m is when the concern starts. We can afford around $5m on Meccage/Levonas with the ability to spend another $1m or so (provided DeBerry signs for around $300k or less)

It's probably my breaking point for the whole thing, but if the Brewers walked away with these two + Broughton, along with Noah Wech, I'd be pretty happy.

I wonder if he think he can be a top 10 pick in 2027 as a reason to go to college, but that's a long way off for a pitcher when injuries can strike at any time. Losing out on one extra late rounder because of Levonas changing his demands is a tough balance, but if its a round 18-20 player you may just have to, Nunnallee was always a bit of a pipe dream

[biedergb]

7 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

$2.4m would be fine, I think it's if it starts approaching $3m is when the concern starts. We can afford around $5m on Meccage/Levonas with the ability to spend another $1m or so (provided DeBerry signs for around $300k or less)

It's probably my breaking point for the whole thing, but if the Brewers walked away with these two + Broughton, along with Noah Wech, I'd be pretty happy

Right, I agree. But if the reports of Levonas demands (or just not signing) are true, then best not to try to spend greater than $2.4M on him and focus on the others.

I was so excited about the Meccage/Levonas duo moving through the system, but if Levonas does not want to do this, then oh well. Still stinks if the scouting department did not realize his demands and/or wishes, or just didn't vet this fully.

[SF70]

5 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

$2.4m would be fine, I think it's if it starts approaching $3m is when the concern starts. We can afford around $5m on Meccage/Levonas with the ability to spend another $1m or so (provided DeBerry signs for around $300k or less)

It's probably my breaking point for the whole thing, but if the Brewers walked away with these two + Broughton, along with Noah Wech, I'd be pretty happy

I’d prefer signing 7-8 day 3 picks and taking pick 68 in ‘25 myself. The way this team’s amateur scouting department is working the field, I want the volume.

[Jake McKibbin]

1 minute ago, biedergb said:

Right, I agree. But if the reports of Levonas demands (or just not signing) are true, then best not to try to spend greater than $2.4M on him and focus on the others.

I was so excited about the Meccage/Levonas duo moving through the system, but if Levonas does not want to do this, then oh well. Still stinks if the scouting department did not realize his demands and/or wishes, or just didn't vet this fully.

I'm guessing they very much did, given the round he was taken in I'd imagine this is more due to a change in demands.

Either way I'm not entirely convinced it's a big deal yet or just rumors, we'll likely find out today/tomorrow about Meccage and I expect both would be announced together a la Burke/Payne

[Jake McKibbin]

2 minutes ago, SF70 said:

I’d prefer signing 7-8 day 3 picks and taking pick 68 in ‘25 myself. The way this team’s amateur scouting department is working the field, I want the volume.

That's entirely fair. I think, despite the frame an stuff that's already there the thing that get some most excited is the extension he gets. Making not just the fastball but the slider, change etc even nastier.

A little sneak peak of something I've been looking into, but extension has a big impact on whiff rates.

I took this random sample over 2023-today of breaking pitches with 2800+ RPM's, and have a look at the Whiff rates and swinging strike rates progressivly increasing. the same trend occurs for xERA and xFIP

That extension makes me gaudy

[balsamlaker]

Players change their minds.  I would guess the Brewers thought in 2021 that Riggio would sign with them for likely seven-figures.  He did not and they shifted their money to other day three picks.  Riggio then got a contract for just under $700,000 from the NYY last year.  It is part of the reason that you take 'flyers' on day three so you can spend the money.