2024 Trade Deadline

[jay87shot]

Jazz to the Yanks for 3 prospects. Not announced who yet.

[Frisbee Slider]

Blake Perkins has more WAR than Jazz this season.

Sal Frelick has nearly identical WAR to Jazz this season.

[Brewcrew82]

 

[jay87shot]

20 hours ago, RWeeksFan23 said:

what would that look like in terms of our prospects?

Baumeister=Wichrowski

Horvath=Juan Baez but older

Etzel= OF Carlos Rodriguez with some power

Don't forgot the Eflin's contract was back loaded, so he make 18 next year even though it was a 3/40 year deal.

[wallus]

Winker to the Mets. You can all breathe easy now.

[liveforoctober]

Man the reliever market is so barren, the few trades that have gone out have brought back nice returns. I don't want to trade any of them per se .. but Megill and Koenig have been so good for us unexpectedly (and Hudson but the IL eliminates him) .. I can't say I wouldn't be picking up the phone if teams were calling.

[TURBO]

20 hours ago, Frisbee Slider said:

Blake Perkins has more WAR than Jazz this season.

Sal Frelick has nearly identical WAR to Jazz this season.

But their names aren't cool like JAZZZZZZZZZZ!

[brooks_quichenick]

 

[wallus]

2 minutes ago, brooks_quichenick said:

 

That seems pretty light for Paredes at first glance. 

[brewcrewdue80]

On 7/27/2024 at 3:08 PM, Frisbee Slider said:

Blake Perkins has more WAR than Jazz this season.

Sal Frelick has nearly identical WAR to Jazz this season.

WAR has 2 sides. Hitting and Defense.  Frelick and Perkins win playing their defensive position.

Jazz isn't a typical OF and provides negative defense playing out of position.  BRef has both Perkins and Frelick below 0 runs producing from a replacement level player.  Jazz is +15.  Pick and choose what player version you need on your team for 2+months.

[wiguy94]

10 minutes ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

WAR has 2 sides. Hitting and Defense.  Frelick and Perkins win playing their defensive position.

Jazz isn't a typical OF and provides negative defense playing out of position.  BRef has both Perkins and Frelick below 0 runs producing from a replacement level player.  Jazz is +15.  Pick and choose what player version you need on your team for 2+months.

I'll be honest I have no clue what you're looking at. Frelick and Perkins are not below replacement level on anything according to baseball-reference.

Frelick is at 9 oRAR this year, Perkins is at 12 and Jazz is at 18. How are Perkins and Frelick both below replacement level?

[Redd Vencher]

43 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

I'll be honest I have no clue what you're looking at. Frelick and Perkins are not below replacement level on anything according to baseball-reference.

Frelick is at 9 oRAR this year, Perkins is at 12 and Jazz is at 18. How are Perkins and Frelick both below replacement level?

My guess is he's mixing up a componenet that is above and below average with above and below replacement level. A 99 and a 96 wRC+ are not below replacement level offensive prosuction.

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, Redd Vencher said:

My guess is he's mixing up a componenet that is above and below average with above and below replacement level. A 99 and a 96 wRC+ are not below replacement level offensive prosuction.

Yeah I just don't know because Chisholm has negative RAR this year and last. Maybe talking about the +15 in 2022, but if so that feels like a strange cherry pick.

[thebruce44]

With respect to Wiemer, I'll bring this up and die on this hill:

“I’m just a big believer in players that are athletic and players with speed, they sometimes develop a little bit later because they’re so fast, so aggressive, that they bring the game back to them a little bit and it’s a learning experience.”

-Doug Melvin, 2014

[brewcrewdue80]

4 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

I'll be honest I have no clue what you're looking at. Frelick and Perkins are not below replacement level on anything according to baseball-reference.

Frelick is at 9 oRAR this year, Perkins is at 12 and Jazz is at 18. How are Perkins and Frelick both below replacement level?

You're right. I went back and checked.  The stat category I based Sal and Blake were Rbat category and I see I did Jazz under Rrep.  Jazz  in the Rbat is at 0 versus a negative.

Was trying to make a point on Jazz improving, in this instance, Yankees offense or a trading team's offense over Sal or Blake.

[wiguy94]

1 hour ago, brewcrewdue80 said:

You're right. I went back and checked.  The stat category I based Sal and Blake were Rbat category and I see I did Jazz under Rrep.  Jazz  in the Rbat is at 0 versus a negative.

Was trying to make a point on Jazz improving, in this instance, Yankees offense or a trading team's offense over Sal or Blake.

Yeah I don’t think most would disagree that Chisholm’s bat has more upside than Frelick or Perkins but he hasn’t flashed that upside with the bat in a while. Maybe that changes with the change of scenery 

[brewcrewdue80]

59 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Yeah I don’t think most would disagree that Chisholm’s bat has more upside than Frelick or Perkins but he hasn’t flashed that upside with the bat in a while. Maybe that changes with the change of scenery 

Miami is a terrible hitters stadium. But maybe they've done some work to aid hitters.  Looks like it's positive rank for hitting.

[Lathund]

20 hours ago, wallus said:

That seems pretty light for Paredes at first glance. 

Paredes is an interesting case. Go have a look at his Statcast page; he doesn't hit the ball hard in any way, shape or form. And he never has. But his ISO is good, he hits a lot of home runs. How come? Well, now take a look at his spray chart. In parts of 5 seasons, he has never hit a HR that wasn't to left field. Only a few could arguably be called left center. Basically he is a dead pull hitter. Now the key thing to this is that left field in Tropicana field is 315 ft. Wrigley is a lot more than that. 

Now don't take this to mean I'm really down on the deal; Paredes still has great strikeout/walk numbers, he makes contact. And he has hit home runs away from Tampa too. He's also a far, far better defender than Morel, and overall improves 3B a ton. But it's rare to see someone who is such an easily identified regression candidate. He'll be a solid player with the Cubs, but he won't have that same power. Most of all, he is extremely unlikely to break out or get better. So at best he is what he has been (Which is a very good player). More likely, he's somewhere around an average starter or slightly better. Which is... fine. But that's not a light return for an average starter. 

[jay87shot]

21 minutes ago, Lathund said:

Paredes is an interesting case. Go have a look at his Statcast page; he doesn't hit the ball hard in any way, shape or form. And he never has. But his ISO is good, he hits a lot of home runs. How come? Well, now take a look at his spray chart. In parts of 5 seasons, he has never hit a HR that wasn't to left field. Only a few could arguably be called left center. Basically he is a dead pull hitter. Now the key thing to this is that left field in Tropicana field is 315 ft. Wrigley is a lot more than that. 

Now don't take this to mean I'm really down on the deal; Paredes still has great strikeout/walk numbers, he makes contact. And he has hit home runs away from Tampa too. He's also a far, far better defender than Morel, and overall improves 3B a ton. But it's rare to see someone who is such an easily identified regression candidate. He'll be a solid player with the Cubs, but he won't have that same power. Most of all, he is extremely unlikely to break out or get better. So at best he is what he has been (Which is a very good player). More likely, he's somewhere around an average starter or slightly better. Which is... fine. But that's not a light return for an average starter. 

Great post on Paredes, it makes me feel better about losing out on him to the Cubs. I just think Morel is trash, basically a poor man's Javy Baez so the Cubs did great even if Paredes isn't the same player in Wrigley.

 

[KeithStone53151]

Both the Cubs and Reds have now made a move aimed at improving in 2024(and beyond in the Cubs case). Could these moves be indicative that neither team believes we'll continue to win and that the division will truly be up for grabs in Aug/Sept?

[KeithStone53151]

43 minutes ago, Lathund said:

Paredes is an interesting case. Go have a look at his Statcast page; he doesn't hit the ball hard in any way, shape or form. And he never has. But his ISO is good, he hits a lot of home runs. How come? Well, now take a look at his spray chart. In parts of 5 seasons, he has never hit a HR that wasn't to left field. Only a few could arguably be called left center. Basically he is a dead pull hitter. Now the key thing to this is that left field in Tropicana field is 315 ft. Wrigley is a lot more than that. 

Now don't take this to mean I'm really down on the deal; Paredes still has great strikeout/walk numbers, he makes contact. And he has hit home runs away from Tampa too. He's also a far, far better defender than Morel, and overall improves 3B a ton. But it's rare to see someone who is such an easily identified regression candidate. He'll be a solid player with the Cubs, but he won't have that same power. Most of all, he is extremely unlikely to break out or get better. So at best he is what he has been (Which is a very good player). More likely, he's somewhere around an average starter or slightly better. Which is... fine. But that's not a light return for an average starter. 

I reeeeeeeeally don't want to defend this trade. I agree with most of this. However, why is he extremely unlikely to get better? He's only 25. Or do you mean he's unlikely to produce better than he has given the likely regression?

To add to your point a bit...because I'm just not going to miss a chance to dunk on the Cubs...Parades hit 20/31/16 HR from 2022 to 2024(to date). If he played all games at Wrigley, he would have hit 18/25/11. Even at Miller Park, this would have been 16/26/13. Busch and PNC are even worse(yes, he would have hit a lot at the sandbox in Cincy). That exp hr reduction saps a lot of value and makes sense considering the 315 pull side hr in Tampa that you noted.

[wiguy94]

2 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

I reeeeeeeeally don't want to defend this trade. I agree with most of this. However, why is he extremely unlikely to get better? He's only 25. Or do you mean he's unlikely to produce better than he has given the likely regression?

To add to your point a bit...because I'm just not going to miss a chance to dunk on the Cubs...Parades hit 20/31/16 HR from 2022 to 2024(to date). If he played all games at Wrigley, he would have hit 18/25/11. Even at Miller Park, this would have been 16/26/13. Busch and PNC are even worse(yes, he would have hit a lot at the sandbox in Cincy). That exp hr reduction saps a lot of value and makes sense considering the 315 pull side hr in Tampa that you noted.

I'd say Paredes is unlikely to get better because what is there to get better at? I suppose his defense could improve, but he's already basically maxing out his physical tools as good as he can at the plate. Like he's already the best hitter in the MLB and pulling and elevating the ball. How much better can you get at it?

[Lathund]

8 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

I reeeeeeeeally don't want to defend this trade. I agree with most of this. However, why is he extremely unlikely to get better? He's only 25. Or do you mean he's unlikely to produce better than he has given the likely regression?

Yeah a big part is the likely regression that would cancel much of the likely improvements he could make. There's also not that much room to improve in terms of plate discipline/contact. So could he improve his power? Sure, it's possible. I just don't see it when he's already about as extreme of a pull hitter as you can be. Adding raw strength is a possibility, but there  has been no sign of it so far. Now would he benefit from trading some contact for swinging harder and thus hitting for more power? Some players do, and perhaps he's at such an extreme end of the scale that he will be one of them. But no guarantees, and it might not be a change he is suited to or able to pull off. 

Perhaps "extremely" was too much, but I really think he is what he is, and moving to a less favorable environment. A 25 year old who has just debuted I'd find more likely to find his way. A 25 year old with 1500 PAs is less likely to become something drastically different. 

[wildcat2237]

48 minutes ago, KeithStone53151 said:

Both the Cubs and Reds have now made a move aimed at improving in 2024(and beyond in the Cubs case). Could these moves be indicative that neither team believes we'll continue to win and that the division will truly be up for grabs in Aug/Sept?

I think these teams can smell some blood in the water. I doubt they go "all-in" but some little moves to improve wont surprise me. 

[Jastro]