Braves (Sale) vs Brewers (Peralta): 7/31/24, 1:10pm

[Devinep]

2 hours ago, Team Canada said:

We're talking about the Eric Haase with a 1.118 OPS so far, right? Regardless of whether he's expected to keep that up (he won't), he has decidedly not been awful.

I didn’t say he had been awful so far, did I? But like you said, he won’t keep that up. He’s a journeyman reserve catcher. And like I said, they didn’t replace their best hitter, they also didn’t upgrade from Monastario, and they could’ve used a bat before Yeli’s injury 

[Fear The Chorizo]

13 minutes ago, Pugger said:

I hate to be Captain Obvious but it is no coincidence our offensive struggles began with Contreras slumping and Yelich's back acting up. 

Another issue this year is our screwups on the bases.  I'd hate to google how many outs we've had so far...

Contreras wearing down playing essentially every day at catcher and Yelich's recent health history make those two issues as close to a mid-season certainty as they've borne out to be....couple that with the annual "pick the wrong rabbit out of the hat" signing to serve as this team's primary DH (I thought at the time Hoskins was 1B and they still should have signed someone else to be the primary DH), and offense with a young and/or inconsistent team everywhere else was bound to go through some lean periods of production.

For me, the biggest disappointment of this year so far has been the Brewers not quickly bolstering the rotation when it was obvious they didn't have near enough in that department to avoid the bullpen getting taxed and exposed - and not turning over all potential stones to acquire a veteran starter or two that could give them 6+ IP a start consistently and shoulder the innings load.

The discussion on how many games up this Brewers team is on the rest of the division is kind of pointless at this point - because they are a different team than the one that built this lead with Yelich out and a leaky bullpen.  Going through a 2 week crummy patch puts both the Cardinals and Pirates within a series-worth of games of the division lead, and stranger things happen every season where 1 or 2 division leaders at the break wind up missing the postseason if injuries or other flaws flare up at the wrong time.  This feels like one of those points where things could go off the rails on a promising season up to this point.

[Nola Beery]

47 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

When a teams only strengths are defense and bullpen they aren't a serious threat.

especially when the bullpen is a bit dodgy

[Bulldogboy]

Brewers have treated this entire season like they did not expect to be any good this year. The fact is you have to play the hand you are dealt and there should have been a pivot that enabled them to take advantage of the opportunity. They haven't. 

[82brewcrew82]

Just now, Nola Beery said:

especially when the bullpen is a bit dodgy

Exactly, maybe the defense but what part of this team is championship level?

[yourout]

9 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Contreras wearing down playing essentially every day at catcher and Yelich's recent health history make those two issues as close to a mid-season certainty as they've borne out to be....couple that with the annual "pick the wrong rabbit out of the hat" signing to serve as this team's primary DH (I thought at the time Hoskins was 1B and they still should have signed someone else to be the primary DH), and offense with a young and/or inconsistent team everywhere else was bound to go through some lean periods of production.

For me, the biggest disappointment of this year so far has been the Brewers not quickly bolstering the rotation when it was obvious they didn't have near enough in that department to avoid the bullpen getting taxed and exposed - and not turning over all potential stones to acquire a veteran starter or two that could give them 6+ IP a start consistently and shoulder the innings load.

The discussion on how many games up this Brewers team is on the rest of the division is kind of pointless at this point - because they are a different team than the one that built this lead with Yelich out and a leaky bullpen.  Going through a 2 week crummy patch puts both the Cardinals and Pirates within a series-worth of games of the division lead, and stranger things happen every season where 1 or 2 division leaders at the break wind up missing the postseason if injuries or other flaws flare up at the wrong time.  This feels like one of those points where things could go off the rails on a promising season up to this point.

I'm most worried about the fact we really haven't had a long losing streak and almost nobody goes through a whole season without one.

[Nola Beery]

IN-hale. EX-hale.  Every win is good; every loss is bad.  After CC (neither C stands for "charisma")  hit the road, I never expected the Brewers to be even in serious contention at the end of July.  Yeah, they look like they're fading into the mediocrity I feared. But that's not a certainty.  Pat seems to be one of those rock-jawed "we can do it anyway" kind of managers. So I'm gonna hope they can indeed do it.  Any team that makes it to the playoffs, has a chance.  But... merely escaping a sweep in these recent series is not the recipe for success!   bughghghgh

 

[Jim French Stepstool]

8 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

 and not turning over all potential stones to acquire a veteran starter or two that could give them 6+ IP a start consistently and shoulder the innings load.

 

I'm as close as you can get to 100% sure they turned over every stone on the beach. Not making this or that move doesn't mean they spent the last 6 weeks eating jelly beans w/their feet up on their desks. The starter you described above was commanding more than they were willing to give up in what was a sellers' market. And taking in all the factors, I can understand it. Maybe I'm wrong & someone could've been had for a price I'd have been OK with. But we'll never know that.

[Nola Beery]

1 minute ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

I'm as close as you can get to 100% sure they turned over every stone on the beach. Not making this or that move doesn't mean they spent the last 6 weeks eating jelly beans w/their feet up on their desks. The starter you described above was commanding more than they were willing to give up in what was a sellers' market. And taking in all the factors, I can understand it. Maybe I'm wrong & someone could've been had for a price I'd have been OK with. But we'll never know that.

Indeed. This is not the office fantasy league.

[brewers888]

16 minutes ago, Nola Beery said:

especially when the bullpen is a bit dodgy

The bullpen was never going to hold up all season when they are pitching 5 or more innings most nights.

[wiguy94]

Mears has pitched 2 games and I'm already dead tired of the "his FB has no movement" comments that I'm seeing all over social media. Dude has the 10th best FB stuff+ among pitchers with 30 IP this year. His FB is genuinely awesome. Yes it's straight but it generates a ridiculous amount of ride. Over the top pitchers like Mears, Megill, Myers all struggle getting horizontal break on their FB but have great ride because over the top arm motions make it far easier to generate backspin and far more difficult to generate side spin.

[brewers888]

2 minutes ago, wiguy94 said:

Mears has pitched 2 games and I'm already dead tired of the "his FB has no movement" comments that I'm seeing all over social media. Dude has the 10th best FB stuff+ among pitchers with 30 IP this year. His FB is genuinely awesome. Yes it's straight but it generates a ridiculous amount of ride. Over the top pitchers like Mears, Megill, Myers all struggle getting horizontal break on their FB but have great ride because over the top arm motions make it far easier to generate backspin and far more difficult to generate side spin.

The Braves hitters sure were fans of his fastball and had no problems hitting it a mile.

[wiguy94]

3 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

The Braves hitters sure were fans of his fastball and had no problems hitting it a mile.

1 Braves hitter hit his FB. Outside of that 3 struck out, 1 popped out, and 2 hit relative routine lineouts. So 1/7 against his FB is definitely a sign of them having no problems against it. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 hour ago, adambr2 said:

He fell behind 3-1 in the count (really didn't a single strike or anything close prior to that pitch) and had to throw a get me over fastball. Really hard to call that bad/luck breaks just because Riley happened to not make great contact on it. 

Maybe not actually luck per se, but I go to the beginning of that mess. Arcia bounces one right at Ortiz, who is probably playing too deep & then to compound it backs up, causing him to throw from the OF grass even if he DOES make the pick, which he doesn't. Cost you two runs. I know Arcia isn't bunting & may not even know how to, but unless the hitter scorches one right at you there was no reason for him to be that far back & invite a funny hop. That's what allows them to be in & win so many games--taking the outs that are presented.

But yes, the Peguero roller coaster was back down the hill today. Then after the damage is done, makes some really nice pitches to get Ozuna. Just frustrating.

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 hour ago, brewers888 said:

Mitchell can't hit the straight fastball.

He's been very, very.......odd is the only word I can think of. Since rejoining the team, his plate discipline is miles better than it was the last two years. Very encouraging. but absolutely nothing was jumping off his bat. Now he's starting to make harder contact, but sprinkled in are ABs like today---three down the middle, 94-95, and he looks like it's 1969 & a pitcher is hitting.

I'm wondering if the wrong voices are getting in his ear, and he's becoming way too much of a guess hitter. Because there's more guessing in this lineup than I'd like to see.

[wiguy94]

2 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

He's been very, very.......odd is the only word I can think of. Since rejoining the team, his plate discipline is miles better than it was the last two years. Very encouraging. but absolutely nothing was jumping off his bat. Now he's starting to make harder contact, but sprinkled in are ABs like today---three down the middle, 94-95, and he looks like it's 1969 & a pitcher is hitting.

I'm wondering if the wrong voices are getting in his ear, and he's becoming way too much of a guess hitter. Because there's more guessing in this lineup than I'd like to see.

Murphy was really just setting him up for failure. Mitchel struggles against FB with ride and you use him against a pitcher whose best pitch is a FB with ride.

[tmwiese55]

42 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

He's been very, very.......odd is the only word I can think of. Since rejoining the team, his plate discipline is miles better than it was the last two years. Very encouraging. but absolutely nothing was jumping off his bat. Now he's starting to make harder contact, but sprinkled in are ABs like today---three down the middle, 94-95, and he looks like it's 1969 & a pitcher is hitting.

I'm wondering if the wrong voices are getting in his ear, and he's becoming way too much of a guess hitter. Because there's more guessing in this lineup than I'd like to see.

Mitchell generally looks the part. Everything looks great physically, swing looks good, etc.  But yea, the results haven't been coming.  With the lead and really no other options available now I don't see any choice but to ride it out and hope he starts coming around not unlike how it took Chourio two months to improve.  Obviously don't expect it to be that level but going from a negative to just an average hitter is all they need to help.  When it comes down to it he's like a month into his career, some growing pains are expected. But two months left in a pennant race, at some point some results are needed.     ETA: one of the reason OF help was so mentioned as a deadline need, just get a blah mid level 750 ops type helps since you can't bank anything from Perkins, Mithcell, Frelick besides good D

[wiguy94]

1 minute ago, tmwiese55 said:

Mitchell generally looks the part. Everything looks great physically, swing looks good, etc.  But yea, the results haven't been coming.  With the lead and really no other options available now I don't see any choice but to ride it out and hope he starts coming around not unlike how it took Chourio two months to improve.  Obviously don't expect it to be that level but going from a negative to just an average hitter is all they need to help.  When it comes down to it he's like a month into his career, some growing pains are expected. But two months left in a pennant race, at some point some results are needed

Really the issue with Mitchell is that he appears to have a Hiura-esque hole at the top of the zone. The defense, baserunning, and plate discipline all being significantly better give him a real shot to make a high K profile work, but I think the high FB is always going to be an issue. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

2 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

I'm as close as you can get to 100% sure they turned over every stone on the beach. Not making this or that move doesn't mean they spent the last 6 weeks eating jelly beans w/their feet up on their desks. The starter you described above was commanding more than they were willing to give up in what was a sellers' market. And taking in all the factors, I can understand it. Maybe I'm wrong & someone could've been had for a price I'd have been OK with. But we'll never know that.

Disagree - there's been a stone sitting there for months in Mexico City that would've been much cheaper than just about anything they've done so far, and wouldn't have cost them a thing in terms of prospect capital.

People can stick their head in the sand saying that Bauer should never be considered an option because they dont like him, but when the team is reshuffling broken deck chairs to try and find some sort of rotation continuity while a former Cy Young winner in his early 30s is just sitting there to sign for what could be league minimum, from a baseball standpoint it absolutely should be an option.

[LouisEly]

3 hours ago, willie key said:

The only chance you have is if the cardinals and pirates are bad (and they might be).

The Pirates next five series are against teams with winning records including a 6-game West Coast road trip at LAD and SDP.  Their next series against a team with a losing record is at TEX Aug 19-21; TEX only traded off Lorenzen (FIP > Montas), still have Scherzer, Eovaldi, Heaney, Yates, Robertson, Leclerc, and just got Josh Jung back from the IL (and has a 1.305 OPS so far).  We'll find out if they're for real or not.

PIT needs to make a big run now because they close the season with 10 of 13 on the road with the only 3 home games against MIL and the last 3 at NYY.

The Cardinals started July six games back of MIL and despite MIL going 11-13 they only gained one game.  I don't think their fans are super excited about their chances and the way they're playing either.  They have a stretch from 8/9 to 9/8 where they only play one team with a losing record (3 at CIN who hates them as much as the Brewers).  We'll find out what they're really made of too.

[brewmann04]

The pirates pitching going to Carry them. Watching them they. Look to really believe. I am thinking with August schedule we won’t be in first just an opinion 

[82brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, LouisEly said:

The Pirates next five series are against teams with winning records including a 6-game West Coast road trip at LAD and SDP.  Their next series against a team with a losing record is at TEX Aug 19-21; TEX only traded off Lorenzen (FIP > Montas), still have Scherzer, Eovaldi, Heaney, Yates, Robertson, Leclerc, and just got Josh Jung back from the IL (and has a 1.305 OPS so far).  We'll find out if they're for real or not.

PIT needs to make a big run now because they close the season with 10 of 13 on the road with the only 3 home games against MIL and the last 3 at NYY.

The Cardinals started July six games back of MIL and despite MIL going 11-13 they only gained one game.  I don't think their fans are super excited about their chances and the way they're playing either.  They have a stretch from 8/9 to 9/8 where they only play one team with a losing record (3 at CIN who hates them as much as the Brewers).  We'll find out what they're really made of too.

Well, no excuses then.

[yourout]

3 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Really the issue with Mitchell is that he appears to have a Hiura-esque hole at the top of the zone. The defense, baserunning, and plate discipline all being significantly better give him a real shot to make a high K profile work, but I think the high FB is always going to be an issue. 

The hole at the top of the zone is become almost a league-wide issue due to the focus on launch angles and elevating the ball.

[tmwiese55]

I know I'm the "homer optimist type" in the recent conversation today.  But as a lifelong WI sports fan where we're almost always the 'close but no cigar team' I'm actually perpetually worried about the collapse. Its tough not to be eternally pessimistic. If you have any relations with Bos people you get it, they've won like 20 titles in the last 20 years yet are constantly pessimistic/negative due to the Red Sox curse thing.  I recall just a few days saying to friends something like 'blowing a 7 game lead with 60ish games to go is very hard to do, but if anyone can its the Brewers'.  I 100% see the potential issues and possible route to blowing this lead. I think in one post I said one bad streak and all of a sudden its gone.   

That has nothing to do with merely pointing out that a couple balls going a few feet one way or the other in one game of 162 is not something to base grand judgments about, I really didn't think that would be a controversial statement at all. 

[sveumrules]

6 hours ago, brewers888 said:

Is there any doubt this team is on the verge of a complete collapse.

They’ve gone 6-5 since the All Star Break. That’s an improvement over the 3-7 record they posted going into the break.

On July 3rd they were 52-35, a 97 win pace. No one believed or believes this is a 97 win true talent level team so of course there is going to be regression from that unsustainable pace over the final 75 (now down to 54) games.

You were pushing the Vegas 75.5 over/under as a harbinger entering the season, so I guess I can understand why you’d be anxious for a complete collapse.