Brewer Fanatic 2024 Offseason Top 20 Prospects - No. 5: Tyler Black

[Spencer Michaelis]

Welcome back to Brewer Fanatic's 2024 top 20 prospect breakdown! In this edition, we will be taking a deep dive look at Tyler Black. Black comes in as the number five prospect in the system, as voted on and compiled by the Brewer Fanatic community.

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

5. Tyler Black (Nashville Sounds)

The Brewers took Black with their Competitive Balance Round A pick in 2021. Coming out of Wright State, Black was a small-school, model-based selection. After battling some tough injury luck in his first full season in 2022, Black was able to stay on the field in 2023 and he broke out in a major way at the plate and on the bases, eventually making his way all the way to Triple-A. He began there again in 2024 and continued to put up solid numbers at the plate. He also made his MLB debut, and spent a decent chunk of his time riding the active roster shuttle between Nashville and Milwaukee.

What to Like:
Like most of the recent prospect graduates from the Brewers system, Black plays extremely hard, with a lot of emotion and energy. These aren’t tools that show up as grades on a prospect website, but they do matter to traditional scouts and the Brewers, as an organization, seem to seek these types of players out.

Black’s profile is going to be carried by his bat. At Wright State, he showed some in-game power, hitting 13 home runs in his final season. However, his batted-ball profile didn’t point to a ton of power in his future. He had a max exit velocity of 102.2 while in college. Since 2021, Jacob Wilson and Black are the only two first-round picks out of college that had a 90th percentile exit velocity under 100 MPH. In the first 400 plate appearances of his pro career, that batted ball data appeared to be a more accurate sign of his power than the 13 home runs, as he only hit five home runs in that time period. However, in 2023, he hit 18, and he followed that up with 14 more in 2024.

Black’s power numbers have risen, but his bat-to-ball and strike-recognition abilities have not been sacrificed in the process. He demonstrated this throughout the season, consistently winning ball/strike challenges in Nashville. His 19.8% whiff rate in 2024 was in the 90th percentile in MiLB, and he was able to limit whiffs at an above-average rate against all three main types of pitches (fastballs, breaking balls and offspeed). He did the same in terms of limiting chases outside of the zone against all three main types, posting a 91st-percentile chase rate that was the exact same as his whiff rate, at 19.8%. Those abilities combined to help Black post a strong 13.2% walk rate, to go along with his 18.8% strikeout rate.

While Black did not follow up his ridiculous stolen base total from 2023 (55), he still stole 20 bases while only being caught three times. Players who are on the edge of making it to MLB will often take fewer risks on the bases, in fear of getting injured and missing a chance to get called up. Teams can even instruct players to do that. We will never know if that’s the case with Black, but given his high success rate when he did attempt to steal, it’s safe to assume that he is still very capable of swiping bases. Black possesses closer to above-average speed than plus speed, but he has great instincts and the type of hustle and aggressiveness that will create extra bases.

What to Work On:
While Black has shown home run power, it hasn’t necessarily come by way of hitting the ball all that much harder than he used to. His 90th-percentile exit velocity was 101.7 this past season. That's higher than it was in college, yes, but still a below-average mark for the level. Black gets to his power because, when he hits the ball in the air, he seems to hit the ball at an ideal launch angle, especially to his pull side. This is a great ability to have, but whether it’s sustainable at the MLB level is another question. Isaac Paredes is well-known for his ability to make this sort of profile work, but he hits the ball in the air to the pull side at an insane rate. A whopping 49.3% of the balls Paredes hits in the air are to the pull side. Only 27.7% of balls Black hits in the air are to the pull side. Paredes’s average launch angle was 22.4 degrees, while Black’s was only 13.8 degrees. There’s reason to question whether the home run power that he’s shown at the upper levels of the minor leagues will actually show up at the MLB level with this profile.

The biggest hindrance to Black spending extended time in MLB in 2024 was his inability to find a defensive home. After spending time at second base and third base (as well as getting outfield action) for the first few seasons, Black spent the majority of his time at first base in Nashville this year. Unfortunately, despite being an above-average athlete, Black has been unable to pick up any of these spots on the infield. His hands and defensive instincts just have not improved enough at any spot, and first base was no exception, as he made numerous physical and mental errors at the position. It's certainly possible that Black could improve with even more reps, but despite what Ron Washington might tell Scott Hatteberg in "Moneyball", first base is not an "extremely hard" position to learn. If Black was going to be able to handle it long term, it's likely we would have seen more signs of it in 2024.

What’s next:
Black did spend time in the outfield as the season progressed, and that appears to be his ideal defensive home. The issue for him and the Brewers is that the big-league club does not have any need for more outfielders at the moment. Finding a spot in the infield that he could handle at even a fringe-average level would help him find firmer footing on an MLB roster spot. Black seems like a potential trade candidate this offseason, just due to the lack of room for him right now and the fact that some organizations could afford to use him in the outfield while betting on the bat and the baserunning. If not, he will likely have a similar season in 2025, spending the majority of his time at Triple-A, but also making appearances with the Brewers.

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What are your thoughts on Black? What are you hoping to see from him in 2025? Let us know in the comments!

 

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[snoogans8056]

Black seems like we are just waiting for a trade offer / a package he can be a part of.

Which is weird, because he 100% feels like a guy that the Brewers take a chance on from another system.

[sveumrules]

Given Black's overly patient plate approach, I think keeping him in AAA with the more rigid zone any longer could be a detriment at this point.

I'd plug him into the Bauers role from last year and see what he does with 400 PAs against MLB pitchers.

[wallus]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

Given Black's overly patient plate approach, I think keeping him in AAA with the more rigid zone any longer could be a detriment at this point.

I'd plug him into the Bauers role from last year and see what he does with 400 PAs against MLB pitchers.

Yes, with cutting Rea, I would be very surprised if Bauers is brought back. It is time to trade or see what Tyler has.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

1b/3b/DH role is wide open for Black now. He's got a good chance at one of those positions next year.

[yfinn6]

7 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Given Black's overly patient plate approach, I think keeping him in AAA with the more rigid zone any longer could be a detriment at this point.

I'd plug him into the Bauers role from last year and see what he does with 400 PAs against MLB pitchers.

Agreed. I think, barring a move, they almost have to let him spin his wheels in Milwaukee and see if they have anything. 

[jay87shot]

Agree that the 1B platoon with some games at 3B or the OF should be hos spot. Unless someone still values him as a top 50-75 prospect I would trade him potentially but I doubt he has that value.

[TURBO]

10 hours ago, jay87shot said:

Agree that the 1B platoon with some games at 3B or the OF should be hos spot. Unless someone still values him as a top 50-75 prospect I would trade him potentially but I doubt he has that value.

At this point, I think 3B is out of the question.  If they saw him as a future 3B, I'd think they'd be using the major majority of his playing time at the position.

[jay87shot]

3 hours ago, TURBO said:

At this point, I think 3B is out of the question.  If they saw him as a future 3B, I'd think they'd be using the major majority of his playing time at the position.

I should have been more specific, when I said a few games at 3B and OF I should have said emergency 3B and OF (maybe emergency 2B as well). I agree 3B not part of his future.

[Joseph Zarr]

I really like Tyler Black. He's a likable Canuck with a huge wealth of talent. However...the only positions Black has ever played where you came away thinking: "Ok, this could work." are on the OF grass. I've watched the vast majority of his Minor League games so I'm not spitballing here. He didn't have a good year at the dish last season despite what any numbers might suggest - his first such struggle in the Minor Leagues. Despite the down season by his standards, he absolutely still remains an extremely advanced bat. He had an off year. But, the Brewers are also juggling him around the defensive side of the ball like <insert bad or even inappropriate juggling analogy here>. I personally think he does much better on the OF grass because the decision-making process is slightly delayed and there is a broader range to cover and less compression. He has a second to allow his innate athleticism to take over. He doesn't have to react instantly and rely on extremely unsteady hand-eye coordination (OK, he likely just has really bad hands) or positioning or worrying about what ground it is he is actually expected to cover. He can simply turn and sprint and let that innate athleticism take over. He has really good range in both LF and CF. I haven't seen him botch a single play on the OF grass in his limited opportunities but I certainly have seen him make several ranging catches. On the infield? It is very much literally a 50/50 proposition on any given play. Full stop. That is not playable on an MLB diamond. To me, he is strictly a platoon OF/DH guy or a trade candidate to a team who could afford to live and die with him on the OF grass as an everyday player on a very very much low expectations team. For instance, there is absolutely zero way I could validate playing him at 1B over Ernesto Martinez Jr. - who outside his incredible stature and agility and what that means for the entire infield also hits the living heck out of the ball - or even Wes Clarke. I can't trust him to take innings at 3B. If I remain unconvinced Andruw Monasterio plays an acceptable level of MLB-caliber infield defense...I absolutely don't think Tyler Black can. This is just how I see it. I absolutely hope I'm dead wrong.

[Matt]

2 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

On the infield? It is very much literally a 50/50 proposition on any given play. Full stop. 

He's had ten errors in 733 innings at first base. That's up against 463 putouts and 50 assists. In fact, he's carrying the exact same fielding percentage at 1st that Martinez does.

Maybe it seems like an adventure over there at 1st with Black, but that's far from the case. 

[Joseph Zarr]

13 minutes ago, Matt said:

He's had ten errors in 733 innings at first base. That's up against 463 putouts and 50 assists. In fact, he's carrying the exact same fielding percentage at 1st that Martinez does.

Maybe it seems like an adventure over there at 1st with Black, but that's far from the case. 

I watch the games. Very comfortable in my assessments. It most definitely is an adventure. That's putting it quite generously.

[Matt]

3 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

I watch the games. Very comfortable in my assessments. It most definitely is an adventure. That's putting it quite generously.

I do too. 

[Joseph Zarr]

Just now, Matt said:

I do too. 

Then I sincerely, and with all due respect, just very much disagree with you. And, that's just fine. We'll see where the chips fall as time carries on.

[biedergb]

1 hour ago, Matt said:

Maybe it seems like an adventure over there at 1st with Black, but that's far from the case. 

I think Black is solid most of the time, so maybe an 80/20 proposition, so agree technically that he is not a 50/50. But some of the plays, I don't know if they are counted as errors, and with the crazy MiLB scoring systems maybe not, but he doesn't help his fielders out, and a few errors I witnessed are the types you cannot have a MLB player allow. And he may not make enough plays that offset it, so in that I side with Joseph that Black as a fulltime IF is a risky proposition, But his athleticism is definitely good in the OF. A back up 1B is reasonable, but his time as a MLB 2b or 3b is a ship that I think sailed away late '23

[Matt]

For the record, while I'd like to see him in the Bauers role, I don't think that's likely. I think to have the Bauers role you need to be a solid defender and able to be subbed in late at the position. I like Black but he isn't that at first base right now.

But who knows? Maybe he spends the entire offseason fielding ground balls and working on his digs. With a hole on the right side you'd think he'd make it the priority.

[Playing Catch]

I'm not convinced he's gunna hit. His swing looks goofy to me, and most of his hitting value is derived from taking a bunch of walks. His power isn't such that pitchers are going to worry about it. Pair all of that with his defensive shortcomings, and you don't really have anything more than a lefty pinch-hitter/pinch-runner that you'd have to replace in the next half of the inning.