WHOA: Devin Williams Traded to New York Yankees, Receive Nestor Cortes, Caleb Durbin

[Matthew Trueblood]

The Milwaukee Brewers' first truly big move of the winter is the one we knew would come eventually. They're sending one of the best closers in baseball to the defending American League champions, in hopes of keeping their winning window in the National League open forever.

Image courtesy of © Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images

After being spurned by Juan Soto in free agency, the New York Yankees blitzed out a fast reply, signing Max Fried to an eight-year deal at this week's Winter Meetings. Far from satisfied, though, they've now turned to their bullpen, and the Brewers are giving them arguably the best closer in the game. Devin Williams will wear the navy blue pinstripes in 2025, and the Brewers will get (among others) left-handed starter Nestor Cortes to bolster their starting rotation.

Stunningly, the Crew will also receive second baseman Caleb Durbin in the deal. One of the Yankees' top prospects, Durbin was widely expected to start for the Bombers in 2025, but will instead take over an infield role with the Brewers.

Though he's generally been projected as a second baseman in the majors due to his diminutive stature, Durbin played a good amount of third base in the upper minors in 2024, including in the Arizona Fall League. He's a right-handed batter, and he could slot in nicely at the top of the order almost right away. He batted .275/.388/.451 at (mostly) Triple A in 2024, with elite contact rates and speed. He only hit 10 home runs in 406 regular-season plate appearances, but then hit five in a remarkable stint in the AFL, during which he maintained a .976 OPS.

Durbin feels very much like a Brewers type, positionally. He's versatile, and the team doesn't automatically need either to move Brice Turang or Joey Ortiz to short. The latter remains more likely, perhaps, but Durbin's body type screams keystone, and the chances of Turang sliding to short do rise incrementally here. It's a huge addition, and this deal very neatly echoes the haul the Brewers got for Corbin Burnes last winter: a top infield prospect who'd been waiting for their chance, and a key left-handed pitcher for a rotation the team had quietly marked as a unit in need of urgent help.

Speaking of which, let's turn our attention to Cortes, who would have been the much bigger name a year or two ago. Intriguingly, he, too, is only one year from free agency, so the Crew gain no team control in this part of the exchange. They do shift resources from an unfathomably deep bullpen to a needy rotation, though, and Cortes had another strong year in 2024. It was cut short by elbow trouble in September, and like Williams, his only indelible image from the 2024 postseason is as the victim of a massive home run—in his case, Freddie Freeman's Game 1 walk-off grand slam in the World Series.

When he's right, though, Cortes is a solid mid-rotation starter. He walked just 5.5% of opposing batters in 2024 and can miss bats reasonably well. He's most famous for his craftiness, with a delivery that he sometimes manipulates dramatically to confound hitters' timing. Though an extreme fly-ball guy, he doesn't give up undue numbers of home runs, thanks to a fastball-cutter-slider mix that induces lot of lazy fly balls and pop-ups. Few pitchers figure to profit more handsomely from pitching in front of the Brewers' all-world outfield defense than Cortes can.

Much of the question with Cortes is the health of his elbow. He pitched in October only against doctors' orders. He suffered a flexor strain in his throwing arm, and while the full offseason to recover should allow him to ramp up normally next spring, there's a real risk associated with that injury; it is often a precursor of a torn UCL. Cortes was projected for $7.7 million via arbitration in his final year of team control, according to MLB Trade Rumors, so if he were at immediate such risk, the Yankees would have considered non-tendering him. They didn't, and the expectation is that he'll be ok. But that issue certainly made him more available in this deal.

It also necessitated some money changing hands, which is the final piece in this deal. The Yankees will send some money to the Brewers (no specific amount reported yet), so that the deal will trim the payroll for the small-market, budget-conscious Crew. All in all, this trade checks every box you might have hoped the team could check in the Williams maneuver. They've filled their infield void. Durbin is a great hedge against regression at the plate by Turang, too. Cortes slots into a rotation that already featured Freddy Peralta, Brandon Woodruff, Aaron Civale, and Tobias Myers, and their depth begins to seem formidable. There might be another trade in the offing, at some point, as Cortes and Civale would both be pitching as impending free agents and there's a whiff of redundancy here, but both Cortes and Durbin are great fits for what the Brewers like to do.

This trade was an inevitability this winter, and in some ways, it's a sad one. Williams has been superb for the Brewers for his entire career, and Trevor Megill won't quite replace him the way he replaced Josh Hader years ago. However, on balance, the Brewers got better and more sustainable by making the move, and they once again found the best move to keep themselves ensconced in their comfortable place atop the NL Central. They have more to do, but this was the heaviest lift of the winter, and they've finished it well before Christmas.

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[Jim French Stepstool]

we all knew this was inevitable. I'm glad he's out of the NL.

This makes it look at least a little more likely Turang moves to SS, which I'm not nuts about b/c while he can handle the position & I'm sure handle it well, the guy was a GG-caliber 2B. But Durbin has moved around the INF so we'll see. He has an offensive profile I really like, and one that the Brewers seem to put a premium on these days.

Does this perhaps increase the odds of Ashby staying in the BP?

[Brian]

Just after "Nasty Nestor's" birthday also.... He just turned 30. 

[Sugarrayray]

I’ve liked Cortes and think this is good. Saving 4.5 million is great too. Durbin seems like a nice piece but I’m not as sanguine about him as this wonderful author seems to be. I haven’t been able to find him ranked anywhere near a top prospect for the Yankees. Where am I forgetting to look?

[sveumrules]

15 minutes ago, Sugarrayray said:

I’ve liked Cortes and think this is good. Saving 4.5 million is great too. Durbin seems like a nice piece but I’m not as sanguine about him as this wonderful author seems to be. I haven’t been able to find him ranked anywhere near a top prospect for the Yankees. Where am I forgetting to look?

Durbin is a five foot six inch 14th round pick out of a D-III school, those guys don't make prospect lists.

Most recently he won breakout player of the year in the Arizona Fall League after hitting 312/427/548 with a league record 29 SB against only 1 CS and 17 walks compared to 6 strikeouts.

Over 375 PAs in AAA this past year he hit 287/396/471 with 29 SB/3 CS and 47 BB to 37 K.

He has an excellent performance record and the Brewers scouts obviously see something they like, even if internet prospectors have been slow to take note.

[Joseph Zarr]

13 minutes ago, Sugarrayray said:

I’ve liked Cortes and think this is good. Saving 4.5 million is great too. Durbin seems like a nice piece but I’m not as sanguine about him as this wonderful author seems to be. I haven’t been able to find him ranked anywhere near a top prospect for the Yankees. Where am I forgetting to look?

I wouldn't over-invest in Prospect rankings. Durbin's main issue has been health - he's missed time due to two fluke injuries of late - and switching organizations. Last year, he missed two months due to a fractured wrist (that likely impacted his early exit velo numbers). The Yankees did a good amount of swing adjustment and he evolved from a slap hitter with the Braves into a guy who regularly can launch 15 degree balls with decent power. Likely never a big HR guy but he is definitely a guy who can hit for extra bases - especially, if you factor in his speed. The main thing you might read into is: he proved his 2023 AFL wasn't a fluke. He proved he has recovered from the early 2024 wrist injury. AND, whether it's posturing or not, the Yankess brass (GM and Manager) were repeatedly saying he was a strong candidate to take over everyday 2B duties with the MLB club.

[jay87shot]

The last report of us getting 4.5 million makes me feel a bit better about not getting a better prospect. Cortes will be fine if Hook and Crew can help his changeup and sweeper there is some upside. Durbin sounds nice and the contact skills and athleticism fit our system to a T, but every time I see something good there is something bad to go with it. It seems like he has been playing everywhere but is really only a 2B if an everyday player. I guess for me this comes down to if Nestor Cortes pitches well enough and gets us a comp. pick. If so I say great deal, if he doesn't pitch well we got hosed. 

What is 4.5 mill worth in prospect status maybe like 15-20 in our organization?

[jay87shot]

16 minutes ago, Joseph Zarr said:

I wouldn't over-invest in Prospect rankings. Durbin's main issue has been health - he's missed time due to two fluke injuries of late - and switching organizations. Last year, he missed two months due to a fractured wrist (that likely impacted his early exit velo numbers). The Yankees did a good amount of swing adjustment and he evolved from a slap hitter with the Braves into a guy who regularly can launch 15 degree balls with decent power. Likely never a big HR guy but he is definitely a guy who can hit for extra bases - especially, if you factor in his speed. The main thing you might read into is: he proved his 2023 AFL wasn't a fluke. He proved he has recovered from the early 2024 wrist injury. AND, whether it's posturing or not, the Yankess brass (GM and Manager) were repeatedly saying he was a strong candidate to take over everyday 2B duties with the MLB club.

I don't think it is overinvesting in prospect rankings it just is that Durbin has a ton of worrisome question marks. I will say that the Yankees farm system is pretty bad so there should be some question marks not being a top 30 prospects even if it is from size bias.

1)Weak exit velo 2)extremely pull happy (I haven't seen the data, but someone said this) 3) injury prone 4)Probably only fit for 2B everyday 5) Was thrown away by the Braves for next to nothing.

Heck, I hope that he turns into Dustin Pedrioa/Jose Altuve as much as anyone, he sounds like a good guy and Brewers type of player.

[Joseph Zarr]

37 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

 

What is 4.5 mill worth in prospect status maybe like 15-20 in our organization?

Hard to say. We signed INF Jesus Made for $950,000. I'd say that investment has been paying early dividends.

[Sugarrayray]

1 hour ago, Joseph Zarr said:

I wouldn't over-invest in Prospect rankings. Durbin's main issue has been health - he's missed time due to two fluke injuries of late - and switching organizations. Last year, he missed two months due to a fractured wrist (that likely impacted his early exit velo numbers). The Yankees did a good amount of swing adjustment and he evolved from a slap hitter with the Braves into a guy who regularly can launch 15 degree balls with decent power. Likely never a big HR guy but he is definitely a guy who can hit for extra bases - especially, if you factor in his speed. The main thing you might read into is: he proved his 2023 AFL wasn't a fluke. He proved he has recovered from the early 2024 wrist injury. AND, whether it's posturing or not, the Yankess brass (GM and Manager) were repeatedly saying he was a strong candidate to take over everyday 2B duties with the MLB club.

It’s not so much that I invest much in prospects lists, (although I take them far more seriously than GM posturing speak) it’s just that the author referred to him as a Yankees top prospect. I haven’t found confirmation or agreement of that anywhere. And his batted ball data and other stats do not suggest the same. Also, AFL hype is not a great barometer of MLB success.

I hope I am wrong. Some of the numbers you included were very intriguing. Also MLB.com just ranked him as the Crew’s 15th prospect, which is also intriguing. I think he was a good pickup. I also think he looks like a nice utility man. But I don’t think his inclusion in this trade is “stunning”, and I’m also not confident he was a top Yankees prospect.

[Sugarrayray]

1 hour ago, jay87shot said:

I don't think it is overinvesting in prospect rankings it just is that Durbin has a ton of worrisome question marks. I will say that the Yankees farm system is pretty bad so there should be some question marks not being a top 30 prospects even if it is from size bias.

1)Weak exit velo 2)extremely pull happy (I haven't seen the data, but someone said this) 3) injury prone 4)Probably only fit for 2B everyday 5) Was thrown away by the Braves for next to nothing.

Heck, I hope that he turns into Dustin Pedrioa/Jose Altuve as much as anyone, he sounds like a good guy and Brewers type of player.

Yes, these are a lot of my feelings as well. Sums it up nicely. Better than I did, at least 🥴

[wallus]

I think Durbin is Monasterio's replacement more than anything.

[Rick Daltons Flamethrower]

I really like that they got a solid number 3/4 starting pitcher. However we really, really , really need to upgrade third base. I see Ortiz as the shortstop and Turang staying at second but gosh darn we need some power and pop at the hot corner. 

[eddiemathews]

Soto didn't just spurn the Yankees. He spurned the Brewers, too!

It's entirely possible that Durbin won't be too big of a drop-off from Ortiz at third, and that Ortiz is an upgrade over Willy at short. Neither is a sure thing, but...maybe? And it's also entirely possible that Durbin is in AAA next year.

It's in the power department that the team is taking a hit. Durbin ain't hitting 25-30 dingerz. The team could make it up with power improvement from a full season of "good" Chourio, growth from Mitchell (and the other youngsters) in power, and just maybe a bit of a return from a healthy Yelich. Even Hoskins could return to form a bit. That's a lot of ifs, but as Doc Brown would say, what the hell...we might as well be positive in December.

[brewfanmn]

3 hours ago, Rick Daltons Flamethrower said:

I really like that they got a solid number 3/4 starting pitcher. However we really, really , really need to upgrade third base. I see Ortiz as the shortstop and Turang staying at second but gosh darn we need some power and pop at the hot corner. 

Do they actually need "power and pop" or do they just need production? I never understand why people get so focused on *how* a team produces. The goal of the game isn't to hit homers, the goal of the game is to score more runs than the other team. It doesn't matter how that happens. Taking a walk, stealing second, scoring on a single, and saving a run with the glove the following inning is worth just as much as a 2-run homer.

[eddiemathews]

24 minutes ago, brewfanmn said:

Do they actually need "power and pop" or do they just need production? I never understand why people get so focused on *how* a team produces. The goal of the game isn't to hit homers, the goal of the game is to score more runs than the other team. It doesn't matter how that happens. Taking a walk, stealing second, scoring on a single, and saving a run with the glove the following inning is worth just as much as a 2-run homer.

Scoring runs both ways is preferable. 

[brewfanmn]

11 minutes ago, eddiemathews said:

Scoring runs both ways is preferable. 

From a style standpoint or a team-building standpoint? I don't think the team should care even one bit how they go about scoring and prevent runs.

Trying to acquire specific types of players seems like a great way to force bad moves or miss out on opportunities elsewhere

[eddiemathews]

34 minutes ago, brewfanmn said:

From a style standpoint or a team-building standpoint? I don't think the team should care even one bit how they go about scoring and prevent runs.

Trying to acquire specific types of players seems like a great way to force bad moves or miss out on opportunities elsewhere

Doing it the cheapest way doesn't seem much better...if at all.

[brewfanmn]

10 minutes ago, eddiemathews said:

Doing it the cheapest way doesn't seem much better...if at all.

Who said anything about being cheap?

[T. King]

Now go get Moncada for third.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, T. King said:

Now go get Moncada for third.

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