Packers 2025 offseason

[Joseph Zarr]

In honor of the Lions weeping for a reformat of Playoff seeding, I am publicly proposing all 'Merican football games be played outdoors on natural grass.

Thank you. I concede my time.

[HarryDoyle]

I'm going to assume that if Gute doesn't either 1) trade for Hendrickson, or 2) draft a stud pass rusher in the first round, that his talk of ramping up the urgency is all BS. This team is not going anywhere without a pass rush.  I don't have high hopes for Van Ness anymore. If a player can't figure it out after two years, he's not going to figure it out at all. It's not out of the realm of possibility that this team could finish last in the division in 2025. 

[BrewerFan]

6 hours ago, adambr2 said:

And I’m not saying Morgan is a bust and can’t play, but we have to stop making these blind assumptions that all this youth is going to cause us to automatically improve — it feels like that mindset has infected the front office and has kept us from going and adding anything of significance.

We added McKinney and Jacobs last year and had probably the best safety duo in the NFL when Williams was healthy...which is a fairly big caveat, but McKinney was certainly doing something.

This year we added Banks which is more significant in that it allows Jenkins to move to Center and shore up a more important position on the OL while still having a pretty good LG. 

6 hours ago, adambr2 said:

Also, who are all these players that we need to earmark for big extensions?

Zach Tom. That's going to be a pretty big contract extension. I hope Wicks becomes one, but I don't think we're earmarking him for one. Tucker Kraft would be another who I'd certainly hope we're discussing. 

 

I think the Packers have done a pretty good job of balancing expecting improvement from within with adding players.

 

The expectations are...pretty high. We went from Rodgers, Adams, competing for Super Bowls, everyone in here thought we were going back to the 70s and 80s...there were a lot of posts suggesting as much. Now two years after a complete rebuild while we've had a ton of dead cap, we came out of it and we were a game away from the NFCCG and lost to the NFC Champions in '23...a year we probably should have been picking in the top 5-10 and then we came back in probably the best division in the league and we won 11 games. 

 

9 hours ago, adambr2 said:

I highly doubt most Packer fans had even heard of Nate Hobbs prior to a week ago. The money he got blew his projections out of the water. Not that PFF is the end all be all, but Hobbs graded out at 61.4 last year … Eric Stokes was 61.3

I don't think Hobbs was all that obscure of a name. He did have a similar grade to Stokes and I wish they'd have brought Stokes back for 4M....but maybe he wasn't willing to.

In just man coverage, I think Stokes is more of a sure thing and has more upside given he lost a chunk of his rookie deal to the lisfranc and then surgery on his knee. I think it's obvious the Packers are looking for more physical corners though as the big difference in their grades was Hobbs grade vs the run. Stokes was never a physical corner. 

 

That said, the fact that he "blew his projections out of the water," isn't all that telling. Most players tend to do that. Especially with the Cap rising at about 10% per year. They guaranteed Hobbs 16M. They're not exactly tied to him very long with that and it's not going to stop them from trying to address the position(I'd guess it has very little impact other than they don't feel the NEED to double down at CB like they did last year with Safety and LB, generally positions that aren't as valuable. 

[wallus]

5 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

In honor of the Lions weeping for a reformat of Playoff seeding, I am publicly proposing all 'Merican football games be played outdoors on natural grass.

Thank you. I concede my time.

I will piggyback off of this and say that all teams/cities should have a shot of hosting the Super Bowl.

[OldHeidelberg]

I do think the Oline has improved quite a bit and it was above average last year. I am assuming Morgan will be just fine at RG considering his 1st round pick status. Jaire may surprise some by still being here, they won't get anything for him if teams believe he will be released and there is a good argument for keeping him if you can't trade him. WR and red zone offense is still my biggest worry, the end of the year showed me Love isn't ready to carry the team and needs a strong WR core. 

It's early, I agree with concerns about drafting athletes who won't provide immediate help but we had a solid draft class last year with only Morgan's shoulder bringing it down a bit. I really wish they would have found a way with Adams or Metcalf but there is still the draft. I don't get too wound up with our rival's acquisitions at this point, the wheels can come off pretty quickly for all teams and the Vikings in particular don't know they have a QB. 

 

[adambr2]

Jaire is going to be gone. It’s as close to a foregone conclusion as can be, short of something drastically changing, which I’d put at less than a 5% chance.

Even Hobbs was discussing him and Nixon playing on the outside this season with no mention of Jaire. They haven’t released him simply because there is no good reason to yet, there’s no reason to not keep seeking a trade. They are not going through this song and dance with him again. 

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I've said it before and I will say it again. The offensive line was not holding the Packers back last year. They ran for 2,500 yards and Jordan Love threw a lot of just absolutely awful throws that cannot be explained away by pressure, there were plenty of times he had no one in his face and just threw bad passes. I think he was hurt all year, personally. 

Maybe their offensive line is better, maybe it had a bad moment here and there, but it wasn't impeding then from going anywhere. They didn't want to retain those guys and went in another direction, that's fine, doesn't bother me at all. 

But when it comes to addressing weaknesses on this roster they haven't done it. Well I guess Hardman probably means I've watched Nixon take his last kick back, which is something. 

 

[adambr2]

4 hours ago, HarryDoyle said:

I'm going to assume that if Gute doesn't either 1) trade for Hendrickson, or 2) draft a stud pass rusher in the first round, that his talk of ramping up the urgency is all BS. This team is not going anywhere without a pass rush.  I don't have high hopes for Van Ness anymore. If a player can't figure it out after two years, he's not going to figure it out at all. It's not out of the realm of possibility that this team could finish last in the division in 2025. 

Honestly, Gute needs to re-examine his approach in the 1st round and the types of players that he targets early, because his 1st round track record sucks.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Hendrickson is never happening. I don't know why people are even entertaining it. You'll be lucky if the Packers first round draft pick isn't a "raw" DL with "upside" that plays 14% of the defensive snaps. 

[adambr2]

9 minutes ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

Hendrickson is never happening. I don't know why people are even entertaining it. You'll be lucky if the Packers first round draft pick isn't a "raw" DL with "upside" that plays 14% of the defensive snaps. 

I’m really tired of taking projects in the 1st. It’s just a dumb strategy. You have these guys for 4-5 years before they’re going to get paid and you want to redshirt them for half their rookie contract? I could excuse this if the approach was yielding huge impact players by year 3, but that hasn’t been happening.

By all means go for a project with huge raw upside in the 4th round, but not in the 1st.

This approach was most of the reason why we had no choice but to give Jordan Love a big extension when the entire NFL knew that it would probably have been better to at least get one more season to wait and see.

[BrewerFan]

On 3/19/2025 at 9:03 PM, adambr2 said:

Jaire is going to be gone. It’s as close to a foregone conclusion as can be, short of something drastically changing, which I’d put at less than a 5% chance.

Even Hobbs was discussing him and Nixon playing on the outside this season with no mention of Jaire. They haven’t released him simply because there is no good reason to yet, there’s no reason to not keep seeking a trade. They are not going through this song and dance with him again. 

Hobbs has also said that Jaire was the first player to call him and he was excited to play with him. I didn't hear the comment, but I would suspect it was asking if he could play outside or something about how well he knows Nixon from his Raiders days.

Almost all the reporting about Jaire absolutely being gone has come from Demovsky and his job is to sensationalize.

[BrewerFan]

On 3/19/2025 at 9:22 PM, adambr2 said:

I’m really tired of taking projects in the 1st. It’s just a dumb strategy. You have these guys for 4-5 years before they’re going to get paid and you want to redshirt them for half their rookie contract? I could excuse this if the approach was yielding huge impact players by year 3, but that hasn’t been happening.

By all means go for a project with huge raw upside in the 4th round, but not in the 1st.

This approach was most of the reason why we had no choice but to give Jordan Love a big extension when the entire NFL knew that it would probably have been better to at least get one more season to wait and see.

Exactly how many immediate impact players do you think are available at the bottom 3rd of the 1st rd?

If you're drafting a DL, they're ALMOST always going to take time to develop. Dallas Turner, the #1 rated edge last year, he didn't exactly light the world on fire. Oh, and Minnesota traded #23 to move up to...I think 16th and gave up a 3rd, 5 and then a 3rd and a 4th this year IIRC.

Chop Robinson had the most sacks among 1st rd picks with 7. He also had 7 QB hits. That's similar to when Kyler Fackrell had 10.5 sacks and 12 QB hits. You usually get a sack for every 2-2.5 QB hits, so that was a lot of luck, but fine. And he was terrible vs the run. Both gone before the Packers pick but...even if they weren't.

James Pierce is probably the most realistic options to bring in someone in the 1st who can get 6+ sacks, but he's going to get washed out in the run game(and I'm not sure the Packers want a situational pass rusher in Rd1). And he also will likely be gone.

 

The idea that the Packers are looking at the draft board and thinking, "well, he could give us 10 sacks this year, but we'd rather take this player who is bigger and more athletic and HOPE he can develop into a 10 sack a year player in a few years? It’s not “an approach,” it’s kinda silly.

 

Take the BEST defensive linemen in the NFL or edge rushers in the NFL.  

 Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis. Neither played a ton as rookies(Carter was at 50%, but he was also considered a top 3-4 talent with the character issues. Neither were great right out of the gate Quinnen Williams, Dexter Lawrence, Jeffery Simmons, the BEST players in the NFL, top 10 picks, they weren't immediate impact players. JJ Watt? Wasn’t getting 20 sacks as a rookie. It’s the rare top 5-ish picks normally like Bosa, Mack, Donald, players of that ilk who come in and have huge impacts right away.  Do you think Gutey isn't trying to find year one impact players? Or do you think he's prioritizing finding franchise cornerstones like those players who can who also have as much of an impact immediately as possible? He took LVN. Who had a bigger impact that year?

He had the 3rd highest pass rush grade and he was good vs the run. LAST year when he broke his thumb, like the rest of the DL, he struggled. But he was better than McDonald as a rookie. So…I’m not quite sure what you’re looking for.

Even the guys we’re talking about. Garrett was the 1st overall pick and the Browns weren’t going to trade him.
Crosby was a fluke like Zach Tom in Rd 4.
And then Trey Hendrickson, not even sure when he was drafted, but HIS first 3 years, he had like 2.5, 0 and 3.5 sacks before he broke out.

 

I don’t know which players you think we should go after that we’re not, but it feels like it’s usually the result of mock drafts and then people don’t like them.

Rashan Gary, he was the guy we’re talking about. Limited playing time, about the same production as LVN his first two years, then broke out in the 3rd year. But expecting an every down DL at ALL I the draft is asking a lot, asking for one later #23 in the first, you’re talking about getting lucky.

I don’t see this as some “approach” of “philosophy” that Gutekunst has.

Quote

 

This approach was most of the reason why we had no chooce but to give Jordan Love a big extension when the entire NFL knew that it would probably have been better to at least get one more season to wait and see.

 

If there were EVER a scenario in which drafting a guy to develop him has proven to be WILDLY successful…it’d be Aaron Rodgers and then after that, Jordan Love. And your claim of what the entire NFL knew runs totally contrary to pretty much EVERYTHING we heard, but you’re stating it like it didn’t work out great for us.

We went from Rodgers, 8-9, salary cap hell, Love came in and we got BETTER, we have eaten like…what, 130 in dead cap space the last couple years(with maybe 20M more left this year).

I can't think of a worse example of trying to use "this approach" as an example of why it's bad…and I’d rather have paid him last year when we did…than to have to offer him a new contract now this year when you don’t have a cheap year on his deal to roll into

Jordan Love was top 10 in several advanced metrics last year despite a lot of things not going great. The WRing core was last in dropped passes EPA(or whatever it is that measures the number of 3rd down, 4th down, TD passes dropped) and he had the 2nd most dropped balls in the NFL by %. Love had injuries that limited him the first 1/3rd of the season.

Love had a BETTER QBR, better QB rating, we went 11-6 and his losses were 2X to a 14-3 Philly team that won the SB, 2X to a 15-2 Det team, 2X to a 14-3 Minnesota team and then ONE loss to the Bears.

 

 

But perhaps give me a list of players you DON'T want taken taken this year vs players you do. So if...again, James Pierce Jr is available and ends up giving you 7 sacks while playing 20 snaps a game vs a guy like Stewart who isn't as refined, but has far more upside, we can see which one was the better option in a few years. Or a Landon Jackson...who is also probably not going to put up the sack numbers this year as someone like Pearce may. 

[JosephC]

2 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

James Pierce is probably the most realistic options to bring in someone in the 1st who can get 6+ sacks, but he's going to get washed out in the run game(and I'm not sure the Packers want a situational pass rusher in Rd1). And he also will likely be gone.

I pretty much agree.  Pearce was 245 at the combine and likely played at a few pounds less than that.  He definitely is a better fit as a 3-4 OLB and I really question if he's big-bodied enough to butt heads with NFL offensive tackles every down.

I don't see him as a great fit for the Packers, especially with all of the character stuff floating around-

https://www.sportskeeda.com/college-football/news-he-actually-crazy-james-pearce-jr-s-high-school-teammate-vouches-anger-issues-ahead-nfl-draft

He had a very good performance at the combine and, best that I can tell, his stock has dipped a bit.  He was #11 on the pre-combine board that I compiled from the reporters, and currently he is down to #16.  At this point, I would slot him behind the other guys who seem to fit best as 3-4 OLB...Jalon Walker, Mike Green, Donovan Ezieruaku.  Ezieruaku is a guy I think a lot of people have overlooked.  Lots of talk about Green's sack numbers, but Ezieruaku posted 16.5 last year and he did it in the ACC.  He didn't do the 40 at the combine, but he did do the 20 yard shuttle (4.19) and 3-cone (6.94) and posted plus-plus-numbers in both.  Even if he's considered a big linebacker (248 pounds), the 20-yard shuttle and 3-cone were the top numbers in the edge group and also in the linebacker group. 

[BrewerFan]

On 3/19/2025 at 7:36 PM, OldHeidelberg said:

I do think the Oline has improved quite a bit and it was above average last year. I am assuming Morgan will be just fine at RG considering his 1st round pick status. Jaire may surprise some by still being here, they won't get anything for him if teams believe he will be released and there is a good argument for keeping him if you can't trade him. WR and red zone offense is still my biggest worry, the end of the year showed me Love isn't ready to carry the team and needs a strong WR core. 

It's early, I agree with concerns about drafting athletes who won't provide immediate help but we had a solid draft class last year with only Morgan's shoulder bringing it down a bit. I really wish they would have found a way with Adams or Metcalf but there is still the draft. I don't get too wound up with our rival's acquisitions at this point, the wheels can come off pretty quickly for all teams and the Vikings in particular don't know they have a QB. 

 

I hope Morgan pushes for that LT job. I'd be disappointed if he's not competing there. Walker is not good and it really shows up against good pass rushers.

 

The idea that the OL held this team back and that Love wasn't getting pressured...he was. He had almost the identical bad throw % as Josh Allen, he had less time in the pocket on average and he was pressured 8% more often. On nearly 1 of 4 pass attempts, despite Love getting the ball out quickly in this offense, he was pressured.

 

Walker is a guy who is almost certainly not going to have a long career given the knee issues he's had that caused him to miss his rookie year and fall to the 7th. 
Myers was one of the worst centers in the NFL(Gutey's biggest mistake is taking Myers over Humphrey). 

And if they think Morgan can be a really good guard and Simmons from OSU is available, I'd be perfectly fine with the Packers taking him. He was viewed as a top 10 pick before he tore his ACL at Ohio State. 

 

I think the OL has improved with Banks and Jenkins, but OL and DL are two areas you should aim for better than 'good enough.' You should try and find two elite tackles and a good OC. That's been the recipe for so many teams on offense and on defense it's getting home with 4 guys. And when you can do that, you can make the opposing QBs life hell by sending a 5th guy on occasion or just give them happy feet. The 49ers did that to us, the Seahawks did that when they had 6-7 good pass rushers rotating and Wagner, KJ Wright, Malcolm Smith or Tampa Bay with Vita Vea, Shaq Barrett, JPP and Devin White or Winfield.

 

 

I want that elite pass rusher...but outside of Hendrickson which...I understand the appeal, I just don't agree with, they're mostly gone.

 

On 3/19/2025 at 4:41 PM, HarryDoyle said:

I'm going to assume that if Gute doesn't either 1) trade for Hendrickson, or 2) draft a stud pass rusher in the first round, that his talk of ramping up the urgency is all BS. This team is not going anywhere without a pass rush.  I don't have high hopes for Van Ness anymore. If a player can't figure it out after two years, he's not going to figure it out at all. It's not out of the realm of possibility that this team could finish last in the division in 2025. 

Going back to the point I made to Adambr, don't you think finding a stud pass rusher is ALWAYS the goal? That's been the main thing he's talked about. It's REAL hard to find a stud rookie pass rusher at #23.

Would you be happy with James Pierce Jr who is a situational pass rusher but can come in and use his speed to rush the passer, but is way too easily blocked by TEs much less OTs vs the run?

As for the "if a player can't figure it out after two years, he's not going to figure it out at all," you should look at the top pass rushers in the league right now. 

Trey Hendrickson, 2.5, 0 sacks first 2 years.
Rashan Gary 7 sacks his first two years.
Dexter Lawrence took 3 years before he got 3 sacks and he wasn't a great run defender up until then either(and now he's the best DL in the NFL). 
Quinnen Williams didn't break out until year.
Hasaan Reddick has 2.5,4, 1 sack his first 3 years...and 50.5 the next 4
Fletcher Cox, Greenard for the Vikings has 25 the last two years. He has 1 his first year and 1.5 in Yr3.
Van Ginkel had 5.5 his first two years and was 2nd team AP last year
Strahan had 5.5 his first two years...
 

I think I could go on, but...it's not quite QB tough, but you have to be patient with DL. They can take a while. 

[BrewerFan]

25 minutes ago, JosephC said:

I pretty much agree.  Pearce was 245 at the combine and likely played at a few pounds less than that.  He definitely is a better fit as a 3-4 OLB and I really question if he's big-bodied enough to butt heads with NFL offensive tackles every down.

I don't see him as a great fit for the Packers, especially with all of the character stuff floating around-

https://www.sportskeeda.com/college-football/news-he-actually-crazy-james-pearce-jr-s-high-school-teammate-vouches-anger-issues-ahead-nfl-draft

He had a very good performance at the combine and, best that I can tell, his stock has dipped a bit.  He was #11 on the pre-combine board that I compiled from the reporters, and currently he is down to #16.  At this point, I would slot him behind the other guys who seem to fit best as 3-4 OLB...Jalon Walker, Mike Green, Donovan Ezieruaku.  Ezieruaku is a guy I think a lot of people have overlooked.  Lots of talk about Green's sack numbers, but Ezieruaku posted 16.5 last year and he did it in the ACC.  He didn't do the 40 at the combine, but he did do the 20 yard shuttle (4.19) and 3-cone (6.94) and posted plus-plus-numbers in both.  Even if he's considered a big linebacker (248 pounds), the 20-yard shuttle and 3-cone were the top numbers in the edge group and also in the linebacker group. 

With Pearce, it's not even so much his weight, he's just a finesse player. I think you can play Von Miller at DE or...to stay more current, Princely Umanmielen given how violent he is with his hands, but...they'll have to develop. You can get by with some of them...if you have a well enough rounded roster. The Eagles go with smaller DEs...but you can do that with Jordan Davis, Cater, Hargrove and Flexter Cox when you draft Nolan Smith and bring in Sweat. If it's Pearce or a DT like Grant or Nolen(I haven't watched Harmon enough to have an opinion there). 

I just saw it when I was looking at Pearce(and more one dimensional speed rushers), but they brought him in for a visit to talk about...a DUI or something(whatever it was) just like they did with Wyatt, but Gutey was talking about how badly he WANTS to add to the pass rush, but if you're going with a guy speed guy, they're specialists and then there's some "Roster Math," that has to go into that. And then, he started talking about what happens if you need them to step in and play 40 snaps a game. 

 

That doesn't seem like as big of a deal to me as...using a 1st rd pick. I don't know that I'd take Will McDonald. Maybe in a year it'll be obvious, but 10 QB hits, 10 sacks. That's batting 1.000. That's not likely to hold up and again, just brutal vs the run. 

If there was a guy I'd look at, it'd be the kid from Michigan. 6'1 250, he's a little more stout and he's just relentless and I think you could get him in the 4th. Josiah Stewart. 

 

Just go back and watching some of the Packers DL play from last year...I don't really know what Hafley is doing. He may be outsmarting himself. It seemed, particularly earlier in the year, he put a leesh on these guys. 1 gap is 1 gap. Let them beat their guy, get into the backfield. You have great safety play. The DEs shouldn't be responsible for setting the edge in the base. They're responsible for that C gap and then the Safeties come up and they or the LBs have outside contain. But they looked more like 3-4. Almost a 2 gap scheme, at least on the outside and then on passing downs they'd let them loose up front.

Later when you saw Gary or even Mosby making some plays, they were just shooting the gap. 

 

So if you're going to play a hyrid type scheme, then it really takes Pearce out of it(though I don't even think he'd be very good in the 3-4 or 4-3 vs the run). So I'd even get on board for someone with that body style, but they have to be just more physical. 

 

Jaylon Walker is a guy who has REALLY grown on me. He's that type of guy who can play off-ball, but is definitely better as an edge, I could get behind that selection as he definitely plays more physically. 

Jihaad Campbell is the guy I love that I didn't want to. I don't like using a lot of capital on Off-Ball, but it's really fun to think about what COULD be with him in the middle, Cooper as the WLB and Quay as the SLB. I really don't envision a scenario we take him, but...that'd be a fun fit and I think he can rush the passes. 

After that, Williams from UGA would be the player I think a lot of people would hate. I think he could give you 5-6 sacks this year, but he's just raw and I think he'd be 4th on the depth chart as a rookie(but a whole lot of upside). I think he'll be gone.

 

After that, there aren't many I like.

Day2

Landon Jackson. His length and athleticism, he cn get into the body of the OTs pretty well. I'd like him in Rd2.
Bunch from Oregon, I think he's really interesting. Rd 3 if he's there or maybe we move around. 
Kennard you're talking about a guy who will need a couple years IMO to  surpass Enagbare, but...could be something there with an NFL training program. 

I don't like either Ohio State Edge.
Ivey is not as athletic as LVN. He's stout and reliable, but not going to add too much pass rush.

Day3-early
David Walker. I just love watching his tape. He seems like he's got a non-stop motor and he could surprise people. Not exactly James Harrison, but I do try and remember, being 6' or 6'1 doesn't mean you can contribute.

 

Ultimately, I think our pass rush will be better. I think Covington will help, but Wyatt is so explosive, I don't believe Clark is that bad or it'll take 3/4ths the year for Gary to start playing well. Brooks, Wooden, I think we should be better across the board. 

 

BUT...there's no magic fix or immediate impact player who's going to change this defense unless we cave to the pretty insane asking price of both the Bengals and Hendrickson. 

[HarryDoyle]

4 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

I hope Morgan pushes for that LT job. I'd be disappointed if he's not competing there. Walker is not good and it really shows up against good pass rushers.

 

The idea that the OL held this team back and that Love wasn't getting pressured...he was. He had almost the identical bad throw % as Josh Allen, he had less time in the pocket on average and he was pressured 8% more often. On nearly 1 of 4 pass attempts, despite Love getting the ball out quickly in this offense, he was pressured.

 

Walker is a guy who is almost certainly not going to have a long career given the knee issues he's had that caused him to miss his rookie year and fall to the 7th. 
Myers was one of the worst centers in the NFL(Gutey's biggest mistake is taking Myers over Humphrey). 

And if they think Morgan can be a really good guard and Simmons from OSU is available, I'd be perfectly fine with the Packers taking him. He was viewed as a top 10 pick before he tore his ACL at Ohio State. 

 

I think the OL has improved with Banks and Jenkins, but OL and DL are two areas you should aim for better than 'good enough.' You should try and find two elite tackles and a good OC. That's been the recipe for so many teams on offense and on defense it's getting home with 4 guys. And when you can do that, you can make the opposing QBs life hell by sending a 5th guy on occasion or just give them happy feet. The 49ers did that to us, the Seahawks did that when they had 6-7 good pass rushers rotating and Wagner, KJ Wright, Malcolm Smith or Tampa Bay with Vita Vea, Shaq Barrett, JPP and Devin White or Winfield.

 

 

I want that elite pass rusher...but outside of Hendrickson which...I understand the appeal, I just don't agree with, they're mostly gone.

 

Going back to the point I made to Adambr, don't you think finding a stud pass rusher is ALWAYS the goal? That's been the main thing he's talked about. It's REAL hard to find a stud rookie pass rusher at #23.

Would you be happy with James Pierce Jr who is a situational pass rusher but can come in and use his speed to rush the passer, but is way too easily blocked by TEs much less OTs vs the run?

As for the "if a player can't figure it out after two years, he's not going to figure it out at all," you should look at the top pass rushers in the league right now. 

Trey Hendrickson, 2.5, 0 sacks first 2 years.
Rashan Gary 7 sacks his first two years.
Dexter Lawrence took 3 years before he got 3 sacks and he wasn't a great run defender up until then either(and now he's the best DL in the NFL). 
Quinnen Williams didn't break out until year.
Hasaan Reddick has 2.5,4, 1 sack his first 3 years...and 50.5 the next 4
Fletcher Cox, Greenard for the Vikings has 25 the last two years. He has 1 his first year and 1.5 in Yr3.
Van Ginkel had 5.5 his first two years and was 2nd team AP last year
Strahan had 5.5 his first two years...
 

I think I could go on, but...it's not quite QB tough, but you have to be patient with DL. They can take a while. 

Well, if we need to be patient then Gute should keep words like urgency out of his vocabulary because he has not shown any up to this point.

[BrewerFan]

5 hours ago, HarryDoyle said:

Well, if we need to be patient then Gute should keep words like urgency out of his vocabulary because he has not shown any up to this point.

I don't agree and...it seems like you're mostly just talking about Hendrickson at this point. 

Urgency doesn't mean desperate. I think signing McKinney, Jacobs, Brooks, Hobbs, I think that's some urgency. 

[adambr2]

12 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

Exactly how many immediate impact players do you think are available at the bottom 3rd of the 1st rd?

If you're drafting a DL, they're ALMOST always going to take time to develop. Dallas Turner, the #1 rated edge last year, he didn't exactly light the world on fire. Oh, and Minnesota traded #23 to move up to...I think 16th and gave up a 3rd, 5 and then a 3rd and a 4th this year IIRC.

Chop Robinson had the most sacks among 1st rd picks with 7. He also had 7 QB hits. That's similar to when Kyler Fackrell had 10.5 sacks and 12 QB hits. You usually get a sack for every 2-2.5 QB hits, so that was a lot of luck, but fine. And he was terrible vs the run. Both gone before the Packers pick but...even if they weren't.

James Pierce is probably the most realistic options to bring in someone in the 1st who can get 6+ sacks, but he's going to get washed out in the run game(and I'm not sure the Packers want a situational pass rusher in Rd1). And he also will likely be gone.

 

The idea that the Packers are looking at the draft board and thinking, "well, he could give us 10 sacks this year, but we'd rather take this player who is bigger and more athletic and HOPE he can develop into a 10 sack a year player in a few years? It’s not “an approach,” it’s kinda silly.

 

Take the BEST defensive linemen in the NFL or edge rushers in the NFL.  

 Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis. Neither played a ton as rookies(Carter was at 50%, but he was also considered a top 3-4 talent with the character issues. Neither were great right out of the gate Quinnen Williams, Dexter Lawrence, Jeffery Simmons, the BEST players in the NFL, top 10 picks, they weren't immediate impact players. JJ Watt? Wasn’t getting 20 sacks as a rookie. It’s the rare top 5-ish picks normally like Bosa, Mack, Donald, players of that ilk who come in and have huge impacts right away.  Do you think Gutey isn't trying to find year one impact players? Or do you think he's prioritizing finding franchise cornerstones like those players who can who also have as much of an impact immediately as possible? He took LVN. Who had a bigger impact that year?

He had the 3rd highest pass rush grade and he was good vs the run. LAST year when he broke his thumb, like the rest of the DL, he struggled. But he was better than McDonald as a rookie. So…I’m not quite sure what you’re looking for.

Even the guys we’re talking about. Garrett was the 1st overall pick and the Browns weren’t going to trade him.
Crosby was a fluke like Zach Tom in Rd 4.
And then Trey Hendrickson, not even sure when he was drafted, but HIS first 3 years, he had like 2.5, 0 and 3.5 sacks before he broke out.

 

I don’t know which players you think we should go after that we’re not, but it feels like it’s usually the result of mock drafts and then people don’t like them.

Rashan Gary, he was the guy we’re talking about. Limited playing time, about the same production as LVN his first two years, then broke out in the 3rd year. But expecting an every down DL at ALL I the draft is asking a lot, asking for one later #23 in the first, you’re talking about getting lucky.

I don’t see this as some “approach” of “philosophy” that Gutekunst has.

 

If there were EVER a scenario in which drafting a guy to develop him has proven to be WILDLY successful…it’d be Aaron Rodgers and then after that, Jordan Love. And your claim of what the entire NFL knew runs totally contrary to pretty much EVERYTHING we heard, but you’re stating it like it didn’t work out great for us.

We went from Rodgers, 8-9, salary cap hell, Love came in and we got BETTER, we have eaten like…what, 130 in dead cap space the last couple years(with maybe 20M more left this year).

I can't think of a worse example of trying to use "this approach" as an example of why it's bad…and I’d rather have paid him last year when we did…than to have to offer him a new contract now this year when you don’t have a cheap year on his deal to roll into

Jordan Love was top 10 in several advanced metrics last year despite a lot of things not going great. The WRing core was last in dropped passes EPA(or whatever it is that measures the number of 3rd down, 4th down, TD passes dropped) and he had the 2nd most dropped balls in the NFL by %. Love had injuries that limited him the first 1/3rd of the season.

Love had a BETTER QBR, better QB rating, we went 11-6 and his losses were 2X to a 14-3 Philly team that won the SB, 2X to a 15-2 Det team, 2X to a 14-3 Minnesota team and then ONE loss to the Bears.

 

 

But perhaps give me a list of players you DON'T want taken taken this year vs players you do. So if...again, James Pierce Jr is available and ends up giving you 7 sacks while playing 20 snaps a game vs a guy like Stewart who isn't as refined, but has far more upside, we can see which one was the better option in a few years. Or a Landon Jackson...who is also probably not going to put up the sack numbers this year as someone like Pearce may. 

Well, as far as Love goes, my point wasn’t to say that he’s a failed pick (though I’m probably a little less certain of him being the franchise QB of the next 10 years than I was a year ago), but to point out, having him sit multiple years required us to pay him franchise QB top dollar money after very little on field production. There was hardly any rookie QB contract to take advantage of. 

As far as the other examples, you stated repeatedly that it’s hard to find certain instant production late in the 1st, which may be fair, but the main examples of the 1st round projects in Gary and LVN, weren’t late 1st round picks.

In the case of LVN there were certainly other, better prospects available with a better chance to contribute in their rookie seasons. 

Christian Gonzalez and Broderick Jones being the two most obvious examples.

[adambr2]

14 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

I don't agree and...it seems like you're mostly just talking about Hendrickson at this point. 

Urgency doesn't mean desperate. I think signing McKinney, Jacobs, Brooks, Hobbs, I think that's some urgency. 

Signing a nickel corner is really stretching the definition of urgency. Those are the same routine offseason moves that everyone makes.

If he had made the comment a year ago and then gone out to sign Jacobs and McKinney as he did I would be more inclined to agree.

[HarryDoyle]

13 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

I don't agree and...it seems like you're mostly just talking about Hendrickson at this point. 

Urgency doesn't mean desperate. I think signing McKinney, Jacobs, Brooks, Hobbs, I think that's some urgency. 

If you think signing an offensive guard and nickelback is showing urgency then knock yourself out.

[LouisEly]

1 minute ago, adambr2 said:

Signing a nickel corner is really stretching the definition of urgency. Those are the same routine offseason moves that everyone makes.

They weren't going to address all of their needs with top players with only $30M of effective cap space.

[adambr2]

4 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

They weren't going to address all of their needs with top players with only $30M of effective cap space.

It sure felt like the narrative a month or so ago was that this was the offseason that the Packers finally had money to spend in free agency.

[BrewerFan]

24 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Well, as far as Love goes, my point wasn’t to say that he’s a failed pick (though I’m probably a little less certain of him being the franchise QB of the next 10 years than I was a year ago), but to point out, having him sit multiple years required us to pay him franchise QB top dollar money after very little on field production. There was hardly any rookie QB contract to take advantage of. 

As far as the other examples, you stated repeatedly that it’s hard to find certain instant production late in the 1st, which may be fair, but the main examples of the 1st round projects in Gary and LVN, weren’t late 1st round picks.

In the case of LVN there were certainly other, better prospects available with a better chance to contribute in their rookie seasons. 

Christian Gonzalez and Broderick Jones being the two most obvious examples.

 Ok...well, Jones has been quite a bit worse than the LT we currently have who's similar in age.  I'd have probably taken Broderick Jones myself...and that pick doesn't appear to be a good one thus far. If he's not a developmental pick, then he's just a bust 

He has been substantially worse than Walker or Tom. The later, fine, he's a stud, but Jones has not been very good. 

Gonzalez has been very good. He was taken after another CB Forbes. I thought we were talking about pass rushers, but...sure, there look like two picks that were clear hits in that draft after LVN. Kancey and Gonzalez. That's easier to identify later, so I'm asking for this year. Who are the developmental guys you want vs the immediate impact players you think or hope to be there at 23? 

 

Gary and LVN were not late 1st rd picks. Many of the players I mentioned were picked in the same range. The point is, it takes most pass rushers a couple years to develop. That's why you draft them before they are a major need. 

AS for Love, I...just don't know how we're still talking about that pick being anything but a nearly perfectly executed transition from one QB to another. I don't care about a QBs rookie contract. It only matters if you have a good QB and it's wildly overblown. We don't need a QB on a rookie contract, we need a good QB. We got one.

[BrewerFan]

37 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

Signing a nickel corner is really stretching the definition of urgency. Those are the same routine offseason moves that everyone makes.

If he had made the comment a year ago and then gone out to sign Jacobs and McKinney as he did I would be more inclined to agree.

Well, I just listed 4 players from the last two years and I don't see every team going out and signing a McKinney or solving the biggest hole on their offense by giving a LG a big deal so you can move Jenkins over to Center.

That seems like a move made with some urgency.

Trading a package that reportedly starts with multiple 1sts and then paying a 30 year old 40M a year(nearly all GTD) would be the definition of desperate. 

I would have been all for doing that for Crosby...mostly fine doing that with Garrett and I don't think it'd be a good idea to do it with Hendrickson. 

[LouisEly]

30 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

It sure felt like the narrative a month or so ago was that this was the offseason that the Packers finally had money to spend in free agency.

Compared to recent years when Rodgers, Bakhtiari, et. al., left them in cap hell, yes, they had some money to spend.  (Some people don't understand the difference between gross cap space and effective cap space.)

But $30M isn't going to get you a top WR, DE/Edge rusher, CB, and IOL.  Particularly when arguably the top WR available is going to cost $30M/year and draft picks... and you have a top OT that you're trying to extend as well.