Rule 5 to CWS - Shane Smith Discussion Thread

[Frisbee Slider]

Not that anyone is watching Smith’s every move but he has the start today in Cleveland. 

Smith allows four walks to what has been a very bad Twins offense in his first start. Plus, a .133 BABIP allowed. And yes, displayed excellent stuff.

4.76 K/9

6.35 BB/9

4.13 FIP

[liveforoctober]

I think there is a great interest in his season given the circumstances and the above zero percent chance he gets offered back to us. I'll be keeping an eye on it.

[Matt]

They could fire Arnold over the Smith decision and I wouldn't even be bothered. 

[Jim Goulart]

Six innings of two-hit ball including perfect through four. The first hit in the 6th was an infield dribbler off the end of the bat by Jose Ramirez. 

Flashed four pitches of absolute filth.

I DVR’d the game and watched each pitch.

Jaw, meet floor.

 

[brooks_quichenick]

5 minutes ago, Matt said:

They could fire Arnold over the Smith decision and I wouldn't even be bothered. 

 

A nice start for Shane today against the offensively-challenged Guardians, but come on. So dramatic.

[Jim Goulart]

Breaks out the curve!

 

[Jopal78]

17 minutes ago, Matt said:

They could fire Arnold over the Smith decision and I wouldn't even be bothered. 

I mean seriously? You think Smith is going to win the Cy Young or something?

 

Good for Smith, but we’ll see as he works through the league there’s still some element of surprise working for him. 

[Matt]

2 minutes ago, brooks_quichenick said:

 

A nice start for Shane today against the offensively-challenged Guardians, but come on. So dramatic.

For absolutely no reason he gave up on a guy who's looked like a legitimate ace. It's a decision that defies belief.  

[Frisbee Slider]

Have the beat writers asked the front office about their perspective on losing Shane Smith?

[RobertCrawley]

14 minutes ago, Matt said:

For absolutely no reason he gave up on a guy who's looked like a legitimate ace. It's a decision that defies belief.  

Well, let's talk when he becomes an ace. He has really good stuff, but alone that's not enough to be successful in the bigs.

[Jim Goulart]

11 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I mean seriously? You think Smith is going to win the Cy Young or something?

 

Good for Smith, but we’ll see as he works through the league there’s still some element of surprise working for him. 

Jopal, have enjoyed the contributions, now and prior, but you may not want to die on the sword you have carried in this thread. The eye test is overwhelming at this point.

We shall see, and the “good for Smith” is appreciated.

Among the many comments from the Cleveland broadcast were ones on Smith’s frame, his base. Just built to be a horse.

[Jim Goulart]

 

[Jim Goulart]

 

[TURBO]

26 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I mean seriously? You think Smith is going to win the Cy Young or something?

 

Good for Smith, but we’ll see as he works through the league there’s still some element of surprise working for him. 

No one is claiming he is a CY Young type pitcher, but we sure could use him about now.

So far, you are as wrong as wrong can be.  Go back and look at your posts.

The Brewers aren't getting this guy back, they just aren't, and the FO messed this up about as bad as they could.

We are trading away #7 prospects, draft picks and money to acquire pitching, and we had it right in our own back yard before we gave it away for absolutely nothing.

This stunk from the day we didn't protect him, and it stinks to high heaven now.

Just a ridiculous, bad, horrendous, unforgiveable mistake, that grows each time Smith takes the mound.

 

[Frisbee Slider]

Shane Smith has not won any games in the big leagues. Wins are the only stat that matters 🙂

[Joseph Zarr]

I mean if you are going to die on the hill of leaving Smith off the 40-Man was a defensible decision, I have amazing ocean front property to sell you in Death Valley. Hurry up before all these plots sell, sell, sell!  

I am unafraid to call a spade a spade: the Brewers absolutely botched it - pure plain and simple. It was also pure plain and simple the day they made their decision(s). You don't leave his massive toolkit unprotected under some fraudulent notion you need more low-velo journeymen lefties filling your pitching stables. It was egregious. It is egregious. And, well, here we are.  

[TURBO]

Shane Smith shut out the Guardians for six innings and struck out six in his second major league start Tuesday.

 

Especially given all of their pitching problems at the moment, the Brewers surely have big regrets about leaving Smith available in the Rule 5 draft to be taken first overall by the White Sox. He’s allowed just two runs and four hits in 11 2/3 innings through two turns.  He looks like a great find for the White Sox. He’ll face Boston next.

[CheeseheadInQC]

It was an unforced error. I get the theory. You need a lot of pitching. We've seen that proven definitively this year. And sneaking Smith through would have left them with an additional pitcher. But at some point the risk of losing them becomes too great, and Smith should have been on the right side of the line, especially when there were a number of pitchers with less upside and no more big league ready who ended up getting 40-man spots.

[biedergb]

3 hours ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

And sneaking Smith through would have left them with an additional pitcher

And that is just it - very little  chance he was going to sneak through waivers, he was on a lot of lists of likely Rule 5 targets, and those who have watched his rise over the past 2 minor league baseball season likely had a gut feeling he was a MLB pitcher, and his velo and stuff over this past winter/spring speak to staying power - low end a high leverage reliever, average is a MLB starter, and highest end is ace potential.

For a team that had been so good at pitching development, we let the most recent success story go to another team for nothing, and now try to patch together a starting rotation. 

[wiguy94]

7 hours ago, Jim Goulart said:

 

They didn't need to DFA Tyler Jay. They had open 40 man spots on 11/19. They had the spots to protect Smith without DFA'ing anyone at the time and just didn't do it.

[Jopal78]

13 hours ago, Jim Goulart said:

Jopal, have enjoyed the contributions, now and prior, but you may not want to die on the sword you have carried in this thread. The eye test is overwhelming at this point.

We shall see, and the “good for Smith” is appreciated.

Among the many comments from the Cleveland broadcast were ones on Smith’s frame, his base. Just built to be a horse.

….and he’s made two starts in the majors. All I’m saying is slow the roll.
 

For example, after being acquired by the White Sox MLB Pipeline had him as their 26th best prospect. Plus, you and I both know MLB clubs are aware which players are going to be eligible in the Rule 5 draft and who is going to be protected. Yet, not one other team tried to trade for Smith this offseason. Seriously, had the Brewers received even a single trade offer for Smith they would’ve absolutely protected him. 

Thus, if Shane Smith establishes himself as a top of the rotation ace, or wins  the Cy Young award, Rookie of the Year, etc. it’ll be the best story of the season.

But it would also mean the Brewers were wrong, every other team’s scouting department was wrong (or they would’ve tried to trade for him previously) and all the pundits who write about baseball were  wrong. Frankly, that’s something I’d kinda like to see. 

[SF70]

The Chisox have created a monster with Smith.

They are the ones that have taught him the kick change. They are the ones that have unleashed more velo and sharper BB’s.

what we are witnessing today with Smith is because of the White Sox’s PDS. 

[Brewer77]

1 hour ago, SF70 said:

The Chisox have created a monster with Smith.

They are the ones that have taught him the kick change. They are the ones that have unleashed more velo and sharper BB’s.

what we are witnessing today with Smith is because of the White Sox’s PDS. 

Yeah the changeup has played a big role in his success this season. From what I can find, it is not a pitch he had last year. Some of the tweets above have a 60 grade on the pitch based on their model, which is huge to add to anyone’s arsenal. Credit to the White Sox or whoever helped him develop the pitch

The Brewers were willing to take the calculated risk of not protecting him and it looks like they’re going to get burned. Fireable offense? Not even close, but if they were to stack mistakes like this then it’d merit a discussion 

[SF70]

26 minutes ago, Brewer77 said:

Yeah the changeup has played a big role in his success this season. From what I can find, it is not a pitch he had last year. Some of the tweets above have a 60 grade on the pitch based on their model, which is huge to add to anyone’s arsenal. Credit to the White Sox or whoever helped him develop the pitch

The Brewers were willing to take the calculated risk of not protecting him and it looks like they’re going to get burned. Fireable offense? Not even close, but if they were to stack mistakes like this then it’d merit a discussion 

Every team in baseball makes these kinds of mistakes. 
 

Arnold is the best small-market GM in the game and as such deserves a long-term extension.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

On 4/3/2025 at 5:23 PM, TURBO said:

It was a  mistake, and it is just that simple. 

It's ok to admit that the FO made a mistake, really, it is...

I think even the most ardent supporters of the team realize that they likely fumbled this one.

That said, the hyperbolic "fireable offense" crap is very much over the top. It's those reactions that are getting pushback.