Rule 5 to CWS - Shane Smith Discussion Thread

[snoogans8056]

Let’s say we kept Smith and let Patrick go…

Is this now the “Chad Patrick” thread?

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, BrewerFan said:

You don't think it juuust might lie somewhere in the middle?

He's a very good pitcher, a high end #3 who could be a #2 and he's struggled a bit. 

He had a 2.86 ERA coming in and had shut down the Astsros and Tigers in his two prior starts before the two you cited.

I'm sure he'll have to adjust...and his stuff is plenty good that I have no doubt he will, but I think perhaps you're exaggerating how good anyone has suggested he was. 

I MIGHT say Paul Skenes is a "mythical phenom anchoring a major Legue rotation," Nobody said that about Smith. 

 

But I guess I was wrong, this really is just a 'he had a bad start, I'm right,' thread vs a 'he had a good start, I'm right' thread. 

Boy, you sure like to argue. Take a look at Smith’s monthly splits:

April: Dominant. O.67 H/9, .37 BB/9, 6 extra base hits in 32 innings.

May: Good but both hits per 9 and walks per 9 went up. 
 

June: Walks and Hits per 9 are up again over May. Hits/9 are 1.13, BB/9 are 0.51

The only point I made, which the numbers back up, is the league seemingly has made an adjustment to Smith since his sublime April.
 

As such, Smith doesn’t look like the budding young ace right now, he looks like an inexperienced major leaguer trying to figure out a counter adjustment to have success against major league hitters. 

Just like Keston Hiura it is that ability or inability to make counter adjustments  which will determine Smith’s future in the major leagues. 
 

 

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

Also worth noting that Smith will likely reach the most IP for a season in his professional career shortly after the AS break.  Are the white sox going to stretch him way out beyond 95 IP for a season, or are they going to have to send Smith to the pen to limit the injury risk that likely was the main reason the Brewers left him exposed in the Rule 5 draft in the first place?

[Team Canada]

9 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Feels like this thread can probably just be closed at this point. Basically the only time there are new posts is when Jopal is trying to victory lap a bad start or Turbo trying to victory lap a good start.

It's also true that those starts factually happened, and you can question the motivation of the poster providing that factual update, but that doesn't mean it didn't happen. Ultimately if you don't care about Shane Smith updates, feel free not to jump into the thread. I don't mind having a place to hop in and see how he's doing in the midst of the other topics instead of having to go hunt it down myself.

[BrewerFan]

On 6/26/2025 at 7:41 AM, Jopal78 said:

Boy, you sure like to argue. Take a look at Smith’s monthly splits:

April: Dominant. O.67 H/9, .37 BB/9, 6 extra base hits in 32 innings.

May: Good but both hits per 9 and walks per 9 went up. 
 

June: Walks and Hits per 9 are up again over May. Hits/9 are 1.13, BB/9 are 0.51

The only point I made, which the numbers back up, is the league seemingly has made an adjustment to Smith since his sublime April.
 

As such, Smith doesn’t look like the budding young ace right now, he looks like an inexperienced major leaguer trying to figure out a counter adjustment to have success against major league hitters. 

Just like Keston Hiura it is that ability or inability to make counter adjustments  which will determine Smith’s future in the major leagues. 
 

 

 

What do you suppose I even argued in this post? You went into a whole month by month split like I disputed his June Numbers were worse after he gave up 5ER in 2IP like you were making this highly disputed argument!

Never said his monthly splits weren't worse...given he made FOUR starts and he gave up 5 ER in 2 of them...so you're kinda conjuring this argument up on your own.

I asked a rhetorical question to a.... silly hyperbolic post from you. Nobody has said he is some "mythical phenom anchoring a major league rotation,"

 

If I WAS going to argue, I'd point out a rookie pitcher was simply wild. That you'll invariably see this at some point from Misiorowski. 

I'd also probably point out that he's playing for THE Worst Defense in MLB overall by advanced defensive metrics (DRS, UZR, etc.)... a point you think helps him somehow. I can't fathom how. 

 

BUT... as I'm not that invested, I made none of those points. It will be fun to follow the rest of the year. If Jopal bumps the thread, he had a bad outing. If someone else, probably a good outings!

 

It's also certainly fair to say I was wrong and this thread IS really just a 'bad start=Jopal posts,' good start -Turbo posts'...

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

Trying to recall the rules on this, but the white sox have to keep Smith in their 26-man mlb roster the full season, correct?  What happens in the event of an injury/IL stint?

Looking like Smith may soon be headed for purgatory with the white sox, as he's only about 15 innings off his career high for IP in a season, and his performance has cratered quite a bit.  If the white sox weren't awful, i think this thread would have more posters wondering where Smith would fit in the Nashville rotation once he is sent back this way from Chicago.

 

I doubt the sox would release Smith, but id be shocked if he stays in their rotation into August - i think he's headed for bullpen longman duty soon

[Outlander]

Smith has already been on the roster long enough where if he has to go on the IL the rest of the year they would keep him. They can't option him though.

[Joseph Zarr]

So many ill-informed takes on the quality of pitcher RHP Shane Smith is and will be. The usual suspects. Anywho...

The decision still makes zero sense. Happy for Shane, regardless. What an incredible story.

[wiguy94]

Congrats to him but that's embarrassing for the White Sox and MLB that their lone representative is a guy with a below league average ERA.

[ghostdrew]

Yeah white Sox don't have an All-Star only guy who is pitching good is Adrian Houser maybe we should start a thread for him 😂

[BrewerFan]

On 7/2/2025 at 8:21 AM, Fear The Chorizo said:

Trying to recall the rules on this, but the white sox have to keep Smith in their 26-man mlb roster the full season, correct?  What happens in the event of an injury/IL stint?

Looking like Smith may soon be headed for purgatory with the white sox, as he's only about 15 innings off his career high for IP in a season, and his performance has cratered quite a bit.  If the white sox weren't awful, i think this thread would have more posters wondering where Smith would fit in the Nashville rotation once he is sent back this way from Chicago.

 

I doubt the sox would release Smith, but id be shocked if he stays in their rotation into August - i think he's headed for bullpen longman duty soon

I'm really not seeing a ton of difference between he and Priester other than one was basically free and not a Brewer and the other cost us quite a bit and is a Brewer.

If he were to be headed back to the Brewers with THIS staff...well, for starters, Quinn Priester is still in Boston and we still have Rodriquez, the pick. and an interesting reliever. 

THEN... you factor in the White Sox have -18 DRS and the Brewers are +14 and I think it's likely you'd see with a bit better ERA. But...these are pretty similar pitchers. Smith has struggled, giving up 5ER vs LAD and COL on the road, then 5 vs SLT and I believe AZ. 

 

Priester has pitched better after struggling earlier. I don't think there's any doubt we made mistake. If nothing else, Smith would have gotten us through now and on a playoff team with great depth in the rotation, he'd likely be on his way down, but he certainly looks like a future maybe #3 on a good team. 

Another thing that's pretty obvious... if Smith was a Brewers, we'd have pulled him in the 3rd or 4th a couple times as we did Priester.... because we're in a competition. 

But here is it. Two guys who are a few months apart in age.

If Quinn Priester becomes a really good #2/3, I will be happy with the trade.

If Shane Smith becomes an ace... well, it'll suck, but... I'm not seeing the need to trash the FO over and over.

 

 I mean, we have a SECOND group of 5 pitchers who would be a...passable MLB rotation. Especially when Gasser comes back. 

Peralta
Misi
Woodruff
Patrick(he's been better than either)
Quintana

You ALSO have
Henderson
Priester
Cortes in about 3 weeks
Tobias Myers
Coleman Crow
Ashby would probably be starting in a lot of places....DL Hall.
Carlos Rodriguez
Tyson Hardin
 And we've got a few other guys who we could and in the past CERTAINLY would be really banking on to be impact pitchers like Wicrowski, Kuehner and and that's just guys who could start right now.

 

So... Smith, bad move. Maybe lets give it a few months, but at the end of the day...this is the worst move the Brewers have made in a WHILE IMO....and they have a dozen pitchers either already up or with early '26 expected debuts that look like really good pitchers. So PROBABLY not the end of the world!

 

Also, this conversation isn't going anywhere! Guess who else isn't? This happens to good teams all the time. 

 

I mean, I guess we only have FIVE early picks instead of 6, but I'm pretty confident they'll find a guy from Miss. St with a 5.50 ERA as a reliever and turn him into a fun starter in AA in a year and then a Juco Arm early and he'll be the next deGrom...or Ashby...or Braddock, somewhere in that range! 
 

I swear, this is like a millionaire complaining because they didn't honor his 2 dollar off coupon at the Car Wash... sure, they should have, but he's still pretty comfortable! He's not going to miss a meal. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think the injury/durability concerns that will go with Smith (which is why he was an undrafted collegiate FA signee to begin with and exposed him early to the Rule 5 draft) factor in alot, too.  

His stuff is MLB-caliber, but not necessarily as a front of the rotation starter until he proves he can be that type of workhorse.  As this season wears on, it's clear Smith will have to potentially try proving that in 2026 - because that's not happening this season.

Was it a mistake to leave Smith exposed in the Rule 5 draft?  Yes - but I don't think it was a travesty considering how many arms the Brewers have in their organization and on their MLB roster who Smith would likely sit behind on the pecking order for innings in Milwaukee.

[gregmag]

Yeah, normally I agree with Joseph — who knows a ton more about prospects than I do — but right now not protecting Smith is looking like a minor mistake. It’s not clear that he would be one of the Brewers’ seven best starting pitchers at this point. BrewerFan makes a great argument that losing Smith forced the Priester trade. OTOH the Brewers clearly had their eyes on Priester for a while, including at the time they cut bait on Smith. Would they have even (rightly or wrongly) given Smith a shot?  They appear to have liked Priester more. We’ll see if they were right or wrong.

BTW, we should probably convert this into a “tracking ex-Brewers organization starting pitchers on the White Sox” thread.  Adrian Houser, who was unpitchable for the Mets last season, is having a career year. Bryse Wilson and Aaron Civale have managed the impressive achievement of making the White Sox worse.

[Jim Goulart]

 

[Jim Goulart]

 

[Jim Goulart]

Putting a wrap on this thread for 2025:

AUDIO via "Foul Territory": "White Sox starting pitcher Shane Smith detailed his journey from being picked in the Rule 5 Draft in 2024 to being an All-Star in 2025. He talked about the new coaches in Chicago and his goals/plan for the offseason and 2026."

Hosts: Alanna Rizzo, Erik Kratz, AJ Pierzynski