Peralta’s Realistic CY Young Opportunity

[BrewerFan]

15 hours ago, rickh150 said:

Yes.
You wait a week until Woody finally loses a game….and after Miz has a blowup against Reds.  Then you go to work.  
I think the playoff starters are still a fluid situation. Peralta has been the best, most consistent starter all season,  The other 3 have been so good for us minus a blip here or there. And Quintana could get a playoff start too, especially if we get into a seven game series. 
 

 

Sure. I mean, I found someone on here last year who said they'd rather be able to sign an extra reliever or a Hunter Renfroe type player every year than invest 10M into the Latin American Scouting and Development program. It was either a former player who spent the 1988 season with the Milwaukee Brewers and put up a negative WAR...but did have two AS games on his resume as well as an NCLS MVP... or it was someone who just arbitrarily picked that players to use as a handle. 

 

But yes, people will argue whatever nonsense you'd like(and this was AS Chourio was playing...mediocre earlier last year and I've not seen him on the board since). 

 

So you could argue any point... but you would have a VERY weak argument.

 

And to be clear, Woodruff's 4 1/3 in which he gave up 3 ERs among which includes the 1st runner he LOB that was allowed to score by the Pen this year. But no, my opinion on him hasn't changed after ONE unremarkable start or since I very recently advocated TRYING to re-sign him should he be open to a 3 year deal in the 25M range...

Misiorowkski? Well hell, all you need to do is go and look at my post on wanting to sign HIM, I said these types of blow up outings were inevitable for a kid with his stuff, but command or just even control issues at times. 

 

The only real question for me is how the Brewers order their #3 and #4. Do they go with Mis+Ashby(hopefully Hall is an option by this point) and try and get each through ~3 innings, maybe 4 if Misi is really rolling, or do they just go with Priester with the understanding that the whole Pen is available at that point and you could get 4 outs from Uribe or 4 from Megill. 

Henderson's status is also very consequential as I think HE plays up better in the pen also having two exceptional pitches, but lacking a 3rd. 

 

But in any event, there's really no argument who THIS team's ace is. I'd love is Woodruff came back JUST a bit more and MADE it a strong argument or Mis just went off down the stretch. Preister has done about as much as he can...short of raking up some more 10-12K games, but he's a guy who is going to give up GBs and that's fine. 

So the only real arguments I could see would be is Priester the #2, Woody the #3, and what exactly is your plan for Misisorowski? Just let him loose in the post-season and if he goes 3 or 7, as long as he's effective?

And then I suppose there's Quintana. I could see the Brewers starting a game with him and THEN going with Misiorowski after he serves as almost an opener, but maybe goes through the lineup once before you bring in the righties and then go back to lefties to cover those 7 innings. 

That's a long way off though.

Freddy is cemented not only in the top 3, but pretty much as the #1 at this point. 

Question marks are pretty much all just health.

-Hall the Obligque, is it a grade 2? Or Grade 1? These always seem to be worse and longer than initial prognosis. 
-Henderson -sore elbow or headed toward the same outcome as Robert Gasser
-Gasser... unlikely, but can he pitch his way into Hall's spot?

[Playing Catch]

I can imagine there's a handful of voters out there that feel nostalgic when watching the 2025 Brewers and decide to vote for baseball's Win leader for Cy Young, just for old times' sake.

Freddy may not be as brilliant, individually, as the other candidates, but he does represent the Brewers and their amazing run as a franchise.

Manager of the Year is really just a "Team of the Year" award, but does Freddy get an artificial bump as the guy to represent this remarkable team?

[JohnBriggs12]

I just have to go to the rest of his games.  I've seen 3 Brewer games total this season all started by Freddy:

4/2 vs. Royals    8 IP, 2 Hits, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8K

6/8 vs. Padres    6 IP, 1 Hit, O Runs, 2 BB, 3K

8/18 vs. Cubs      6 IP, 1 Hit, 0 Runs, 3 BB, 6K

So I've seen him allow just 4 hits in 20 innings, allow 1 run, walk 5 and strike out 17

Are there really other candidates out there?

 

[Samurai Bucky]

13 hours ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

I just have to go to the rest of his games.  I've seen 3 Brewer games total this season all started by Freddy:

4/2 vs. Royals    8 IP, 2 Hits, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8K

6/8 vs. Padres    6 IP, 1 Hit, O Runs, 2 BB, 3K

8/18 vs. Cubs      6 IP, 1 Hit, 0 Runs, 3 BB, 6K

So I've seen him allow just 4 hits in 20 innings, allow 1 run, walk 5 and strike out 17

Are there really other candidates out there?

 

Did you see these in person?  If so, we should have a GoFundMe to get you tickets for all remaining Brewers games.  😉

[duewizard]

On 8/13/2025 at 8:54 AM, duewizard said:

He'd have to go 7-0 40+ IP 50+ K under 5 BB and under 10 ER and I still doubt he'd get it

Well, he is giving it his best shot

[folly412]

[Dragonbait]

Being on the best team in baseball will help his chances... maybe

[OldHeidelberg]

I was looking at the stats last night, he is probably 3rd behind Skenes and Sanchez right now but if he can get to 20 and close the ERA gap on Skenes? Skenes probably still gets it but it's more of a race than it looked like when this thread started. Maybe we need to start a Turang MVP thread to get that moving too. 🙂

[rickh150]

On Sept 2, EsPN had odds of

-4100 Skenes

11-1 Sanchez

40-1 Peralta

Skenes needs a couple blowups and Peralta needs to be nearly perfect with 20 wins…….and it wouldn’t hurt if Brewers won division with 100 wins too. 

[nate82]

25 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

20 wins…….and it wouldn’t hurt if Brewers won division with 100 wins too. 

None of this matters for a Cy Young.

[bm1090]

16 hours ago, nate82 said:

None of this matters for a Cy Young.

Eh, it shouldn’t but it kind of does. If Skenes maintains his numbers and Peralta gets down to a 2.30 ERA and wins 19 games, I could see a lot of votes start to swing his way.

[nate82]

27 minutes ago, bm1090 said:

Eh, it shouldn’t but it kind of does. If Skenes maintains his numbers and Peralta gets down to a 2.30 ERA and wins 19 games, I could see a lot of votes start to swing his way.

A lot of the wins voters have retired or are dead.

[bm1090]

4 hours ago, nate82 said:

A lot of the wins voters have retired or are dead.

But not all

[CheezWizHed]

Regardless of winning it or not... Freddie has had a wonderful second half. 

[rickh150]

23 hours ago, nate82 said:

None of this matters for a Cy Young.

Wins/IP for a pennant chasing team should matter.  All games are not equal….Pitt hasn’t had a meaningful game since May.  He has no pressure to pitch and no team to carry. 

And I realize how CY Young voting has changed analytically over the last decade plus, but I don’t a have to agree with it. I still choose Skenes now….but it is much closer among the top 3 to me.

[nate82]

12 hours ago, rickh150 said:

Wins/IP for a pennant chasing team should matter.  All games are not equal….Pitt hasn’t had a meaningful game since May.  He has no pressure to pitch and no team to carry. 

And I realize how CY Young voting has changed analytically over the last decade plus, but I don’t a have to agree with it. I still choose Skenes now….but it is much closer among the top 3 to me.

No Wins/IP for a pennant chasing team do not matter because this is not a player + team award this is a player award.  What the team does is irrelevant and doesn't matter.  Skenes can't do anything when he is not pitching so why punish him for things that are not under his control but then award someone who did absolutely nothing for a team winning?

Lets say you have a pitcher who has a year of 1.50 ERA 15 wins 250 K's but his team only wins 50 games but another player who goes 3.50 ERA 15 wins 250 K's but his team wins 100 games.  You are seriously going to say the better pitcher is the one who pitched at 3.50 ERA is the better pitcher because their team won more games?  Lets take this even further what if the first pitcher pitched every single inning of their starts.  Are you still going to say the other pitcher is the better pitcher and should win the Cy Young award because they are on a better team?

This is not a team award this is an individual award.  You have to take the team results out of it which means you have to take out the wins.  Team results mean absolutely nothing in an individual award, if this were the best pitching team award sure go ahead and use that information but this isn't that award.  

[Thurston Fluff]

18 minutes ago, nate82 said:

No Wins/IP for a pennant chasing team do not matter because this is not a player + team award this is a player award.  What the team does is irrelevant and doesn't matter.  Skenes can't do anything when he is not pitching so why punish him for things that are not under his control but then award someone who did absolutely nothing for a team winning?

Lets say you have a pitcher who has a year of 1.50 ERA 15 wins 250 K's but his team only wins 50 games but another player who goes 3.50 ERA 15 wins 250 K's but his team wins 100 games.  You are seriously going to say the better pitcher is the one who pitched at 3.50 ERA is the better pitcher because their team won more games?  Lets take this even further what if the first pitcher pitched every single inning of their starts.  Are you still going to say the other pitcher is the better pitcher and should win the Cy Young award because they are on a better team?

This is not a team award this is an individual award.  You have to take the team results out of it which means you have to take out the wins.  Team results mean absolutely nothing in an individual award, if this were the best pitching team award sure go ahead and use that information but this isn't that award.  

Isn't what the individual does to help win a playoff spot part of the individual's accomplishments? If all you have to do is focus on your numbers and winning the game, eating innings, ending a losing streak or whatever is necessary to help your team win are not, you approach the game differently. So does your manager with regard of how he uses you. It should not be all that matters but neither should pure analytics.

Zach Greinke once said he pitched to the analytics because that was what he thought would get the best results. He later said that was a mistake because it changed the way he pitched to produce results other than what was needed to win the game.

All that said, Skenes is an incredible pitcher having a great season and I think he deserving of front runner status as of today.

[Samurai Bucky]

For some reason, this got me thinking about Ben Sheet's best season in 2004.  He was leading in many categories, but they gave it to Clemens because he was 41, had a good year, and the team had a much better record.

I still remember Steve "Sparky" Fifer being animated on the air saying that Sheets did not have a better year because he didn't win more games.  Sheets couldn't be Bugs Bunny and hit for everyone since the offense was not good for the Brewers that year.

The narrative states that Skenes will win it.  He also has better numbers.  We could find five or six different numbers out of the myriad of stats that are available to support Peralta.  It won't work, though.

 

[Baldkin]

Randy Johnson is the guy who got jobbed in 2004. Sheets was a distant second.

[rickh150]

1 hour ago, nate82 said:

No Wins/IP for a pennant chasing team do not matter because this is not a player + team award this is a player award.  What the team does is irrelevant and doesn't matter.  Skenes can't do anything when he is not pitching so why punish him for things that are not under his control but then award someone who did absolutely nothing for a team winning?

Lets say you have a pitcher who has a year of 1.50 ERA 15 wins 250 K's but his team only wins 50 games but another player who goes 3.50 ERA 15 wins 250 K's but his team wins 100 games.  You are seriously going to say the better pitcher is the one who pitched at 3.50 ERA is the better pitcher because their team won more games?  Lets take this even further what if the first pitcher pitched every single inning of their starts.  Are you still going to say the other pitcher is the better pitcher and should win the Cy Young award because they are on a better team?

This is not a team award this is an individual award.  You have to take the team results out of it which means you have to take out the wins.  Team results mean absolutely nothing in an individual award, if this were the best pitching team award sure go ahead and use that information but this isn't that award.  

It’s a combo….not one or the other to me. Skenes has to clearly be in a separate class of individual numbers to win it. It appears he does.
 

But if Peralta closes that gap enough….Skenes struggles and Peralta has 20 plus wins with 3 or 4 stellar starts, I would give it to him.  Again, cry all you want about being on a poor team, games pitched for Peralta in a pennant  race are much more meaningful for a starter. The team is depending on you to perform, stop a losing streak, pitch that extra inning to save the bullpen, etc. Not so much with Skenes this year or last.

For anyone not to take those differences into account, they are not living in reality. Clemens would get my vote for CY Young that year for this reason too.  Brewers were just not competitive enough. The games down the stretch carried little weight.  Sheets looked a little better by individual numbers, but still not enough on a bottom dwelling team where very little in game pressure lived. 

[nate82]

20 minutes ago, rickh150 said:

For anyone not to take those differences into account, they are not living in reality.

Yeah no it is actually the opposite.  If a pitcher played in every single game sure this would matter but they don’t.  What the team does on their off days is irrelevant.  So a team being a playoff team or not is irrelevant to an individual award.

[rickh150]

On 9/6/2025 at 2:23 PM, nate82 said:

Yeah no it is actually the opposite.  If a pitcher played in every single game sure this would matter but they don’t.  What the team does on their off days is irrelevant.  So a team being a playoff team or not is irrelevant to an individual award.

So the team must matter on days the pitcher pitches, right?  We agree on this? The catcher frames a ball for a strike.. He saves a wild pitch not letting a run score. The SS makes a key snag.  Charlie throws out Reggie at 3B.  The team obviously matters defensively in games being pitched. It is not ALL on the pitcher to do.  His numbers are partly due to the catcher, defense behind him, team/coach support, medical staff, etc.  It matters SOMEWHAT in games played.  The TEAM.
 

So to me it’s not a big leap to also say it matters SOMEWHAT in the types of games the pitchers pitch in.  Pitchers that have to STILL pitch stress-filled games in a pennant race are not remotely close to those bleh games for 4 or 5 months with Skenes.  If individual stats are C L O S E…I give it the guy who pitches in games that matter.  
 

 And I don’t feel sorry for Skenes being sleighed for on the Pirates, and yes it is completely fair.  It should be like this for all teams….types of games pitched in should matter SOMEWHAT since the team they play on helps/hurts them already.

Skenes still gets my pretend vote, but it isn’t over.

[nate82]

1 hour ago, rickh150 said:

So the team must matter on days the pitcher pitches, right?  We agree on this? The catcher frames a ball for a strike.. He saves a wild pitch not letting a run score. The SS makes a key snag.  Charlie throws out Reggie at 3B.  The team obviously matters defensively in games being pitched. It is not ALL on the pitcher to do.  His numbers are partly due to the catcher, defense behind him, team/coach support, medical staff, etc.  It matters SOMEWHAT in games played.  The TEAM.

That is a lot of rambling to say what exactly?

[sveumrules]

Freddy finishes fifth.

As was mostly expected Skenes received all 30 first place votes and Sanchez received all 30 second place votes so the rest of the field was left fighting for 3rd place.