If Blake Perkins Attains Arbitration Eligibility, Will He End Up as Trade Bait for Brewers?

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

 

Entering this offseason, Blake Perkins has 2 years, 133 days of official MLB service time. That puts him extremely close to the line between those players in the two-to-three-year service tier who qualify for arbitration eligibility under Super Two rules, and those who don't, according to a review of the eligible players. The line fell at 2 years and 132 days last fall, but looks likely to be 2.135 this time around. That would drop Perkins just below the threshold, and the Brewers would be able to retain him for roughly the league's minimum salary.

If, instead, Perkins clears the line and slots in among the 22% of players with 2-3 years of service who become arbitration-eligible, he's likely to make around $1.6 million, according to Cot's Contracts. The difference is less than $1 million, but if Perkins does qualify for arbitration, it would create one low-friction deadline at which the Brewers could decide to cut the switch-hitting outfielder loose. It seems likely that the Brewers keep just one of Perkins and first-time arbitration-eligible teammate Garrett Mitchell this offseason. If Perkins is made eligible for arbitration, he might be the one who goes. On the other hand, if he remains essentially free, Mitchell could have one foot out the door.

With some higher-priced players, the alternative to keeping them might be non-tendering the guy and letting him test free agency. In this case, though, there's little economic incentive for the Brewers to do that. Rather, the pressure to choose between Perkins and Mitchell comes from the crowding of the Milwaukee 40-man roster. Both players still have multiple seasons remaining in which they can be optioned to the minor leagues, so they offer ample flexibility. With the farm system producing so much young talent that could force its way into the big-league picture this winter, though, there are better ways the team might need to use a final roster spot than a fifth or sixth outfielder. As a result, the path forward is to trade one of the two.

Perkins missed the first half of this season after fracturing his leg with a foul ball early in spring training, and his season was rough even after he returned to the active roster. Never much of an offensive force, he was worse in 2025, and his defense got a tick worse, too. Mitchell, however, has shown no ability to stay healthy at all. He was working his way back from an oblique strain when, in mid-June, he suffered another major shoulder injury while diving back into first base during a minor-league rehab assignment. In his 133 career games, he's batted .254/.333/.433, and he can be just as good a defender in center field as Perkins, but Mitchell's injuries make it hard to believe that he'll ever be reliably available when the team really needs him.

Even so, Mitchell is younger, toolsier, and a former first-round pick, whereas Perkins was signed as a minor-league free agent. His projected arbitration-driven salary is lower than Perkins's, if the latter makes it over the aforementioned line. Each player has trade value, but Mitchell's is slightly higher, because of his greater upside.

Jackson Chourio, Isaac Collins, Sal Frelick, Christian Yelich and at least one of Mitchell and Perkins will be pieces of the team's outfield rotation heading into next season. They can retain Brandon Lockridge for virtually nothing, and they nearly always find another player in this vein to scoop up during the fall, as players throughout the league reach minor-league free agency. At some point, Mitchell and Perkins become redundant, and if Perkins is a Super Two guy, he becomes the better trade candidate.

 

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[AKCheesehead]

I don't know, Matthew.  I guess I pretty much just view Yelich as a DH at this point.  Chourio and Frelick are locks and Collins has a pretty good shot at getting plenty of PT.  I don't claim to know the Brewers' plans for the 40 or financials, but what I hope happens is they give Mitchell one last shot this year and keep Perkins to hedge against Mitchell's next injury, should it occur.  Does Rock Ridge have any options remaining?

[duewizard]

With Mitchell's injury history, letting Perkins go would be malpractice. He's a top 3 defender in baseball and mediocre enough with the bat to justify his spot. We had the same depth going into the season but Berroa and Avans still saw playing time. 

[Devinep]

2 hours ago, duewizard said:

With Mitchell's injury history, letting Perkins go would be malpractice. He's a top 3 defender in baseball and mediocre enough with the bat to justify his spot. We had the same depth going into the season but Berroa and Avans still saw playing time. 

Mitchell and Perkins would actually make a possibly effective CF platoon. I’d be ok going into next year with that. The only issue would be the lack of other options to add offense like this team needs. It also makes it difficult to roster Isaac Collins also. Getting so many defense-first OF makes some redundancy and it’ll be interesting to see how it gets sorted out this offseason 

[duewizard]

3 hours ago, Devinep said:

Mitchell and Perkins would actually make a possibly effective CF platoon. I’d be ok going into next year with that. The only issue would be the lack of other options to add offense like this team needs. It also makes it difficult to roster Isaac Collins also. Getting so many defense-first OF makes some redundancy and it’ll be interesting to see how it gets sorted out this offseason 

Collins is optionable so maybe that

[Ro Mueller]

I’m still surprised that we didn’t option Mitchell in 2023, 2024 or 2025 to keep him from reaching arbitration this quickly. Oh well.

[Frisbee Slider]

Perkins seems very well liked by Murphy and the organization. We seem to place a fair emphasis on having good people in the clubhouse, too.

[Thurston Fluff]

15 hours ago, AKCheesehead said:

I don't know, Matthew.  I guess I pretty much just view Yelich as a DH at this point.  Chourio and Frelick are locks and Collins has a pretty good shot at getting plenty of PT.  I don't claim to know the Brewers' plans for the 40 or financials, but what I hope happens is they give Mitchell one last shot this year and keep Perkins to hedge against Mitchell's next injury, should it occur.  Does Rock Ridge have any options remaining?

I think Lockridge could be the hedge against another injury. There's also quite a few outfielders in the system as a whole. Probably going to have Bauers as well. There really isn't a need for more than one light hitting, defensive fifth outfielder as insurance.

[Trax]

What would Perk be worth?    I don't see any stand alone value, maybe be added as a secondary piece with someone like Peralta.   We need to add at least one bona fide bat.  More likely it will be with the infield abut both would be nice.

[Turning2]

They can’t go into 2026 with two glove only pieces in the lineup. Either Ortiz or Perkins has to be upgraded. Both are special talents on defense, but you just will continue to come up short with two glaringly weak hitters in the regular lineup. I expect nothing from Mitchell, and hope for the best with him. Any contribution from him is gravy. 
 

 

[JohnBriggs12]

How can anyone assume that Mitchell is healthy and if so, he can he play baseball at a level that he's not really ever established himself at?  He's a guy you sign on a minor league deal and bring to camp and hope you get lucky.  He's going to be 27 next year, beyond the developmental stage.  

His status as a former first rounder means next to nothing right now.   He hasn't accomplished a thing in the big leagues and in 3 of the last 4 seasons, he's hardly played at all.

[wiguy94]

13 hours ago, Ro Mueller said:

I’m still surprised that we didn’t option Mitchell in 2023, 2024 or 2025 to keep him from reaching arbitration this quickly. Oh well.

Hard to option him when he's on the IL basically the entire time.

[sveumrules]

41 minutes ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

He hasn't accomplished a thing in the big leagues and in 3 of the last 4 seasons, he's hardly played at all.

He's hardly played at all in 3 of his 4 seasons, sure, but he's accomplished plenty during the time he has actually been on the field.

With 23 SB against only 5 CS, plus all the extra bases on the basepaths, he has been worth plus +4.8 BsR.

In his 968 innings as an outfielder he has posted +10 DRS and +8 FRV.

His career 254/333/433 batting line has been 14% better than league average by wRC+.

Of course, that is likely unsustainable with a 33.9 K% and .376 BABIP under the hood, but the results are the results and Mitchell has been a plus runner, fielder and hitter in MLB.

Add it all up, and in Garrett has notched 3.3 WAR in only 443 plate appearances, what kind of minor league free agent can you sign with that kind of upside? For comparison Perkins has 3.1 WAR in 773 PA and Collins has 2.4 WAR in 460 PA.

Can he be counted on for anything with his injury history? Very likely not. But that doesn't mean he hasn't accomplished anything.

[gregmag]

If the big issue here is a 40-man crunch, the first outfield move has to be dumping Berroa. 

[Outlander]

Whatever Perkins make will be minimal, along with Mitchell. They both have value to the Brewers and can be optioned next year so no urgency to dump them. Doubt either has too much trade value. 2027 may be different with Perkins on the wrong side of 30 so he could really use a productive, injury free 2026.