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NL Central Discussion 2026

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igor67 ACL Brewers

igor67

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There's a pretty solid chance the division still has everyone over .500 on June 1st. Pirates and Reds only need 6 more wins the rest of the month. Pirates schedule looks very manageable, Reds is a little tougher, but only because they play Atlanta at the end of the month, so I can see them getting swept and that pushing them under. Cubs, Cards, and Brewers would need a big losing streak to fall below .500 by then. It's also possible that with everyone having built up a big interleague record already that unless one of the Central teams starts dominating everyone else in the head to head playing each other more doesn't push the division under .500 just towards it. You figure at some point 1 of the teams will likely hit a rough patch, but at some point the reality may well be that everyone in the Central has at least a respectable team this year.

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torts
torts

I am not mentally ready for the cardinals to be good again.  I needed a solid decade of mediocrity.... Please revert back.

adambr2
adambr2

Last year was kind of the big monkey off our back. I can’t tell you how unsatisfying the end of last season would have been if we had lost game 5 to the Cubs. But, we didn’t. Got the monkey off our ba

Ro Mueller
Ro Mueller

Given the strong starts of all NL Central opponents, the key to this season will probably be our record in the division. That means we need to be especially healthy from June 22 - July 12 (17 div

Jopal78 ACL Brewers

Jopal78

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2 hours ago, igor67 said:

There's a pretty solid chance the division still has everyone over .500 on June 1st. Pirates and Reds only need 6 more wins the rest of the month. Pirates schedule looks very manageable, Reds is a little tougher, but only because they play Atlanta at the end of the month, so I can see them getting swept and that pushing them under. Cubs, Cards, and Brewers would need a big losing streak to fall below .500 by then. It's also possible that with everyone having built up a big interleague record already that unless one of the Central teams starts dominating everyone else in the head to head playing each other more doesn't push the division under .500 just towards it. You figure at some point 1 of the teams will likely hit a rough patch, but at some point the reality may well be that everyone in the Central has at least a respectable team this year.

The Reds have a negative run differential and are  4-10 against winning teams this season and 20-11 against losing teams. They’ll probably fade before June 1st. Looking ahead their end of the season schedule is brutal with 18 of their final 21 games against MIL, LAD, CHC and ATL

rickh150 Wilson Warbirds

rickh150

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Posted

Bottom 4 AL teams in payroll have division leads and a wild card spot as of today…..

Cleveland, A’s, and Tampa lead…White Sox with a wild card.

Never thought I’d see that this far into the season. Amazing.

 

sveumrules Milwaukee Brewers

sveumrules

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Posted
Posted

How much difference does a three game series in May make? 

FanGraphs NL Central Projections (0517)
CHC: 88.4 W | 46.2% WinDiv
MIL: 86.2 W | 28.8% WinDiv
PIT: 83.6 W | 15.2% WinDiv
STL: 81.3 W | 7.9% WinDiv
CIN: 77.5 W | 1.8% WinDiv

FanGraphs NL Central Projections (0521)
MIL: 88.6 W | 46.6% WinDiv
CHC: 86.6 W | 28.5% WinDiv
PIT: 83.7 W | 14.4% WinDiv
STL: 81.9 W | 8.2% WinDiv
CIN: 78.2 W | 2.3%WinDiv

And a couple two tree Divisional Leaderboards with MLB ranks in parentheses...

Runs Per Game
MIL (5.04 | 4th)
PIT (4.94 | 6th)
CHC (4.92 | 7th)
STL (4.52 | 11th)
CIN (4.42 | 14th)

Runs Allowed Per Game
MIL (3.45 | 3rd)
CHC (4.36 | 13th)
PIT (4.49 | 16th)
STL (4.54 | 18th)
CIN (4.98 | 25th)

Run Differential
MIL (+75 | 3rd)
CHC (+28 | 6th)
PIT (+22 | 7th)
STL (-1 | 13th)
CIN (-28 | 24th)

sveumrules Milwaukee Brewers

sveumrules

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Posted
Posted

Cubs have definitely had an interesting distribution of results so far this year.

First eight games: alternate L/W back and forth
Next eight games: two lose, two win, two lose, win, lose
Win Ten
Lose Three
Win Ten Again
Lose Four, Win Two
Lose Six (& hopefully counting)

That means they have been streaking (one way or another) for 33 of their 51 games so far (64.7%)

I think we'd all agree last year's Brewers team was streakier than average, mostly in a good way.

By my count they were at L4 (x2), L3 (x6), W3 (x8), W4 (x3), W8, W11, and W14 for 95 of their 162 games streaking (58.6%).

nate82 Biloxi Shuckers

nate82

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Ke'Bryan Hayes is having a historically bad season so far though it looks to be a back issue related but a 12 wRC+ is extremely bad.  His slash line is absolutely brutal .142/.195/.225.  Not sure what the Reds were thinking when they traded for him as they are still on the hook for $29mm after this season, this includes a $6mm buyout for the 2030 season.  While not the worst contract but still for the production they are receiving at 3B this is horrible even for about $8mm a season.  The best case scenario for Hayes into his age 30+ seasons would be basically what the Brewers are getting out of Ortiz right now.

Still not exactly sure what the Reds saw in Hayes to make this trade last year.  Yes they needed better defense at 3B but the offensive negative of Hayes is just not worth his defense.  The Reds really bailed out the Pirates on this one.  

 

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Frisbee Slider Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

Frisbee Slider

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44 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Ke'Bryan Hayes is having a historically bad season so far though it looks to be a back issue related but a 12 wRC+ is extremely bad. 

In spite of the jarring futility with the bat, Hayes is nearly replacement level this season. Faint praise. It looks like Hayes is going on the disabled list and Cincinnati is activating Eugenio Suarez. Suarez has not moved the needle, at zero bWAR this season.

owbc Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

owbc

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, HarryDoyle said:

The Cubs are starting to become their version of the 1987 Brewers "Team Streak".

If they don’t snap out their funk soon they are going to be in last place. 

yfinn6 ACL Brewers

yfinn6

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Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, owbc said:

If they don’t snap out their funk soon they are going to be in last place. 

Don't threaten me with a good time.

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CheezWizHed Milwaukee Brewers

CheezWizHed

Community Moderator
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Posted
3 hours ago, Brian said:

Craig says "I don't know we just have to play better." 

I stopped watching ESPN years ago... but I can't believe they just showed 3 people who report on sports for a living Googling if Murphy won the NL Manager of the Year award the last 2 years on a row.  Embarrassing. 

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"Rock, sometime, when the team is up against it, and the breaks are beating the boys, tell 'em to go out there with all they got and win just one for the Uecker. I don't know where I'll be then, Rock but I'll know about it; and I'll be happy."

Brian ACL Brewers

Brian

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Posted
12 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

I stopped watching ESPN years ago... but I can't believe they just showed 3 people who report on sports for a living Googling if Murphy won the NL Manager of the Year award the last 2 years on a row.  Embarrassing. 

I agree, but what do you expect from FIB's.  Waddle and Silvy (former Chicago Bears wide receiver Tom Waddle and broadcaster Marc "Silvy" Silverman) are based in Chicago, Illinois.  They host a popular afternoon sports talk show on ESPN 1000 (WMVP). 

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sveumrules Milwaukee Brewers

sveumrules

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

FanGraphs flipped from favoring the Cubs for the Division to favoring the Brewers for the Division during our three game sweep of them last week.

Looks like PECOTA over at BPro has almost gotten there too at a current projection of 88.7 W | 45.3 Div% for Chicago and 88.6 W | 43.8 Div% for Milwaukee

owbc Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

owbc

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

FanGraphs flipped from favoring the Cubs for the Division to favoring the Brewers for the Division during our three game sweep of them last week.

Looks like PECOTA over at BPro has almost gotten there too at a current projection of 88.7 W | 45.3 Div% for Chicago and 88.6 W | 43.8 Div% for Milwaukee

I can't even fathom how much would have to go wrong for the Brewers to finish with 88-89 wins or less. 

Fear The Chorizo Wilson Warbirds

Fear The Chorizo

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, owbc said:

I can't even fathom how much would have to go wrong for the Brewers to finish with 88-89 wins or less. 

At some point the projection systems need to add a BRZ factor that takes their output for Brewer wins and just multiplies it by 1.1 to get closer to the actual number of wins the Brewers wind up with.

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Underachiever ACL Brewers

Underachiever

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Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, owbc said:

I can't even fathom how much would have to go wrong for the Brewers to finish with 88-89 wins or less. 

I don't think it's an insult to imagine them going 56-54 the rest of the way, which would be 88 wins. It's not like they'd have to collapse for that to happen. Baseball can be a cruel game. They are on pace for 99.7 wins right now, so is it more likely they will go 66-44 or 56-54? It's hard to play .600 ball for a season.

"Go ahead. Try to disagree with me. I dare you." Jeffrey Leonard.

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