Joey O

[Lathund]

2 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Rengifo may be a declining player but his OBP is 30 points below where it was last year and 50 points below his career average. His slugging percentage is 60 points below where it was last year and  100 points below below his career average. His exit velocity is the same as last year and he’s hitting more balls in the air than last year. 
 

Unless Rengifo has truly hit the the wall physically at 29 which doesn’t seem likely, his statistics suggest he’s  going to  start playing better

His overall career numbers are still those of a below average hitter (88 wRC+). So even if he wasn't declining, even if he played to his career norms, he'd still be a well below average player overall. Even at his peak (2022-2024) when he put up a 111 wRC+, that still basically only made him a league average player alongside the rest of his game. And his underlying numbers this year aren't good either; a .278 xwOBA is basically in line with Ortiz (.273). Him hitting more fly balls isn't a positive either, when it comes at the cost of line drives. LDs generate significantly better outcomes than fly balls, especially for someone like Rengifo with a 21st percentile EV. 

Sure, I think he's better than his current 44 wRC+. He'll play better going forward. But for him to be worth rostering, he'll need to exceed his career averages. And I don't see anything in what he's doing to suggest he's capable of that. If he was someone with higher career highs, I'd be more patient. I just don't see the value when even the absolute best case realistic scenario is that he'll end up an average starter. And most cases significantly less than that. I don't mind them taking a chance on him on a cheap 1-year deal like this, hoping to catch a return to his better days. But nothing suggest that's going to happen, so better move on IMO.