Brewers (Misiorowski) vs Nationals (Irvin): 5/1/26, 5:45pm

[zurch1818]

Here is Mitchell's statcast summary:

The all-or-nothing completely matches the smell test. He doesn't swing at bad pitches (high walk rate) but he swings so hard that he creates a hole in the zone (high whiff rate). If this were golf, I'd tell him to take an 80% swing (sacrifice some bat speed) to capitalize on speed asset. I can't see this hurting his overall offensive production.

To throw a name out there from the past, these K/BB splits remind me of Adam Dunn. He obviously wasn't a fast player but knew how to draw his walks.

[sveumrules]

12 hours ago, BruisedCrew said:

The fact that the Brewers Pythagorean projection is 19-11, 3 games better than their actual record, is a reflection of those “feast” games. 

I think it's more a reflection of Zerpa and Megill's early struggles.

Brewer's relievers were credited with 78 losses (16% of all games) from 2023 to 2025.

So far this year they have been credited with eight losses in 31 games (25.8% of all games), with Zerpa and Megill a combined 0 W - 4 L.

If the bullpen had maintained that 16% rate here in the early going the Brewers would have three fewer losses and be right on the nose for their pythag even with those handful of games running up their differential.

[liveforoctober]

28 minutes ago, zurch1818 said:

Here is Mitchell's statcast summary:

The all-or-nothing completely matches the smell test. He doesn't swing at bad pitches (high walk rate) but he swings so hard that he creates a hole in the zone (high whiff rate). If this were golf, I'd tell him to take an 80% swing (sacrifice some bat speed) to capitalize on speed asset. I can't see this hurting his overall offensive production.

To throw a name out there from the past, these K/BB splits remind me of Adam Dunn. He obviously wasn't a fast player but knew how to draw his walks.

Muprhy's "the first two strikes are for you, the 3rd strike is for the team" philosophy seems like it should be hammered into Mitchell a bit more. Choke up and make contact with two strikes ... his speed would create so many more infield hits. I know it is hard to rewire an athlete's brain from what has gotten them to the show ... but if could be Garrett Mitchell until he gets to two strikes and then Sal Frelick once he has two strikes... he would be a .900 OPS guy.

[willie key]

32 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

I think it's more a reflection of Zerpa and Megill's early struggles.

Brewer's relievers were credited with 78 losses (16% of all games) from 2023 to 2025.

So far this year they have been credited with eight losses in 31 games (25.8% of all games), with Zerpa and Megill a combined 0 W - 4 L.

If the bullpen had maintained that 16% rate here in the early going the Brewers would have three fewer losses and be right on the nose for their pythag even with those handful of games running up their differential.

Yep.   And this is why I’m not bullish on brewers this year.   That is the decret sauce for their consistency.    But maybe they can remake their bullpen.    Who knows

[BruisedCrew]

1 hour ago, sveumrules said:

I think it's more a reflection of Zerpa and Megill's early struggles.

Brewer's relievers were credited with 78 losses (16% of all games) from 2023 to 2025.

So far this year they have been credited with eight losses in 31 games (25.8% of all games), with Zerpa and Megill a combined 0 W - 4 L.

If the bullpen had maintained that 16% rate here in the early going the Brewers would have three fewer losses and be right on the nose for their pythag even with those handful of games running up their differential.

Obviously the bullpen hasn’t been great. But applying a rate developed over 486 games and expecting it to be repeated in a stretch of 30 games, especially early in the season with short starts and the use of “openers”,  seems to warrant a “small sample size” alert. 

I also looked at those 8 games and 2 of the 8 “bullpen” losses were charged to Sproat and Patrick when they replaced openers. In the other 6, it looks like only 3 of the games included blown saves. Those are situations when the relievers give up winning runs in tied games.

I also note that the number of runs scored by the Brewers in the 8 games in which the bullpen was charged with losses are: 2, 2, 6, 7, 5, 3, 3, 2. If the Brewers had a perfect bullpen they would have a couple more wins, but when you score 2 or 3 runs you’re going to lose more than you win.