Long Term is Patrick a Starter or reliever?

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

Love the success that the Brewers are having.  While I’m excited about Patrick becoming a “go to guy” in the bullpen, I worry that we’re not leaving ourselves the best possible 5 options for the rotation.

With QP still finding his way back and Woody not likely part of the future plan (next 3-5 years), do we really have 5 better starter options than Patrick?

Miz and Harrison are in there for sure. QP if healthy should be there.  That leaves Henderson, Sproat, Drohan, Gasser, Crow (if not Patrick) for the final 2 spots.

given how well he pitched for us last year and so far this year, I feel Patrick has proven more than any of the other 5 guys.

why not keep Patrick on the rotation and use guys like Sproat and Gasser in the bullpen for now?

as we all know, pitching depth is vital and all the guys should get a shot, but it just feels to me like Patrick has earned his spot.

go Brewers!  Sweep the scrubs

 

 

 

 

 

[Outlander]

Right handed pitching out of the bullpen has has been a weakness of this team so understandable why Patrick would move there. I like Patrick as a starter probably more than most but bullpen sure seems like the route the Brewers are going. Don't think the depth is as deep as it initially appears either with Gasser having much to prove and Crow only pitching 50 innings in 2025 and hardly at all in 2024. Not counting on Priester at all. Hoping Woodruff can be a starter down the stretch and into the playoffs but that hasn't worked real well the last few years. 

[sveumrules]

Out Getter.

Going back to last year, there are 144 pitchers in MLB with at least 100 IP as a starter. Here are some of Patrick's vitals along with their ranks on that leaderboard...

140 IP (105th) | 119 FB+ (17th) | 73 HR+ (19th)
107 K+ (47th) | 103 BB+ (103rd) | 102 K/BB+ (80th)
100 AVG+ (68th) | 100 WHIP+ (86th) | 109 LOB+ (29th)
82 ERA- (35th) | 86 FIP- (35th) | 103 xFIP- (89th)
3.4 rWAR (48th) | 2.9 fWAR (45th)

Despite an innings total just outside the Top 100, Chad has put up bottom line production just inside the Top 50...and that might not even be enough for him to crack the Brewers Top Five SP. Pretty good stuff.

With K/BB rates that are nothing special though, the whole enterprise has been propped up by getting really good HR prevention despite one of the higher fly ball rates in the pool with an assist from stranding runners at an above average clip. His xFIP- shows how much of a tightrope he has walked during those 140 IP.

If we look at how some of those rate stats move around during Patrick's 19 regular season IP out of the bullpen things like his fly ball rate (124 FB+) and K rate (109 K+) are pretty much the same. His HR rate goes up a bit (84 HR+), but improvements in his walk rate (75 BB+) and hit limiting (90 AVG+) have resulted in fewer base runners (80 WHIP+). Put it all together, with a slight uptick in strand rate (113 LOB+) to boot, and Chad comes out at 68 ERA- | 82 FIP- | 93 xFIP- in his limited pen time.

Between Priester & Woodruff's health issues, Sproat's inconsistency & 75 to 85 pitch ceiling, plus none of Henderson, Crow & Gasser really being built up for a full season's workload just yet, I'd guess that Patrick bounces back and forth between the bullpen and rotation as needed throughout the rest of the season.

 

[igor67]

It is entirely possible the team is not quite fully embracing piggyback starters but has found enough arms that can go more than an inning at a time that Patrick along with Drohan are in these new roles where sometimes they are traditional come in for an inning guys, but also there when you need a longer stint and you can still remain in the game. It's hard to argue with the results at the moment. And while Sproat may eventually end up in a similar role he is young enough it is worth trying to see if  you can build him up because he has the stuff to absolutely match Miz and Harrison as weapons in the rotation.

[CheezWizHed]

15 minutes ago, sveumrules said:

Out Getter.

...

Between Priester & Woodruff's health issues, Sproat's inconsistency & 75 to 85 pitch ceiling, plus none of Henderson, Crow & Gasser really being built up for a full season's workload just yet, I'd guess that Patrick bounces back and forth between the bullpen and rotation as needed throughout the rest of the season.

 

This. 

I've been a big proponent of Patrick starting last year, but the more I see of him the more I understand why the Brewers are using him the way they are.  As a starter, he is probably more of a 4 or 5 (yes, I know his stats will say otherwise but that is mostly because the Brewers are limiting his exposure). 

His best ability for the team is his flexibility.  Spot starts when needed, multiple relief innings to backup a short start, and even some high leverage single innings.  Not many guys can handle that variety mentally.  

Sproat clearly has higher potential as a starter... just got to get him over that 80 pitch hump.  Henderson, Gasser, and Crow are pretty similar stuff-wise to Patrick.  Crow has an elite CB that might distinguish him a bit though.  Likewise with Henderson and his change.  And lefties (Gasser) always get extra opportunities. I thought Drohan was going to be a AAAA SP or BP guy... now I'm not so sure. 

Oddly, it is probably Patrick's flexibility that works against him being a consistent starter. 

[Playing Catch]

There was a thread earlier this season about this topic, and at the time, I wanted Patrick in the rotation due to the history the Brewers have had developing young pitchers beginning with bullpen work, whether that leads to a backend role, like Hader, a swingman role, like Tobias Myers/Chad Patrick, or a starting role, like Burnes/Woodruff. So I wanted to just keep Patrick in the rotation to ease the transition for the young guns.

However, the young guns have taken to the starting roles so comfortably, and as many have noted, Patrick has been solid working in relief, so I'm now totally onboard with Patrick moving full-time into a bullpen role of some kind.

I don't care at all about using the length the lengthy bullpen guys have to offer. Instead I embrace it. Therefore, I'd love for Patrick to be a RH flex-piece out of the pen, like Ashby has been from the left, and let him roll through an order a couple of times.

I think the Baseball World is ready for a new appreciation for long-relievers, with so many 5-and-dive guys in the league. They just need to re-brand the role, as swingmen have the long-standing reputation as being the last guys in the pen. With Ashby and Patrick, too, you can bring them in to finish an inning with one batter on back-to-backs to mitigate their weekly pitch-counts without sacrificing bullpen depth day-to-day.

This is all with the hope that Uribe and Megill return to form, and that their remaining one-inning lefties (Hall/Rob Z/Fitzpatrick) can stay healthy and perform well-enough. (And it's easy enough to move Ashby to that role, and backfill with the rotation depth).

[trwi7]

Said it before the season and will say it again.  He's an ace reliever.  Potentially a right handed Hader type before Hader insisted on one inning.  The stuff is just so much better out of the pen.

[long ball]

I definitely think it made sense to bring Patrick in as a starter this year. A) the guy earned it with his performance last year b) he’s one of the older guys in this pre-arb pitching group c) his arsenal was tweaked and maybe that would allow him to thrive as a starter. It didn’t fail, but it also wasn’t great. 
 

He’s shown to be an absolute weapon out of the pen whether it be in short or long relief. I like him in this role. Ideally he still remains stretched out to where he can give us 3 IP when needed. 
 

I think the Brewers are balancing some things with this group of pre-arb starters. They’re managing workloads, developing guys at the big league level, and trying to compete to win the division. It’s quite ambitious. But I think we will see them continue to try to thread this needle. Realistically, none of these guys have much to learn in AAA at this point, but it’s a way for their innings to be managed and getting their best bullets for the big league club

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

1 hour ago, Playing Catch said:

There was a thread earlier this season about this topic, and at the time, I wanted Patrick in the rotation due to the history the Brewers have had developing young pitchers beginning with bullpen work, whether that leads to a backend role, like Hader, a swingman role, like Tobias Myers/Chad Patrick, or a starting role, like Burnes/Woodruff. So I wanted to just keep Patrick in the rotation to ease the transition for the young guns.

However, the young guns have taken to the starting roles so comfortably, and as many have noted, Patrick has been solid working in relief, so I'm now totally onboard with Patrick moving full-time into a bullpen role of some kind.

I don't care at all about using the length the lengthy bullpen guys have to offer. Instead I embrace it. Therefore, I'd love for Patrick to be a RH flex-piece out of the pen, like Ashby has been from the left, and let him roll through an order a couple of times.

I think the Baseball World is ready for a new appreciation for long-relievers, with so many 5-and-dive guys in the league. They just need to re-brand the role, as swingmen have the long-standing reputation as being the last guys in the pen. With Ashby and Patrick, too, you can bring them in to finish an inning with one batter on back-to-backs to mitigate their weekly pitch-counts without sacrificing bullpen depth day-to-day.

This is all with the hope that Uribe and Megill return to form, and that their remaining one-inning lefties (Hall/Rob Z/Fitzpatrick) can stay healthy and perform well-enough. (And it's easy enough to move Ashby to that role, and backfill with the rotation depth).

You make a great point about the increased value for shut down relievers that can give you multiple innings (the original Hader) as a result of May starters only going 5 innings or 2 times through.

while we like To joke about Ashby pitching in 100 games, realistically, clubs will need more multi-inning arms if we’re looking to cover 4-5 innings every game from the bullpen.

i just hope if we go this direction, Patrick doesn’t revert to a Hader and insist on one inning.  He is clearly more valuable when we have flexibility.  Maybe we could give him a multi-year deal/guarantee that would express that value?

[Playing Catch]

7 minutes ago, TwinsBrewersWorldSeries said:

You make a great point about the increased value for shut down relievers that can give you multiple innings (the original Hader) as a result of May starters only going 5 innings or 2 times through.

while we like To joke about Ashby pitching in 100 games, realistically, clubs will need more multi-inning arms if we’re looking to cover 4-5 innings every game from the bullpen.

i just hope if we go this direction, Patrick doesn’t revert to a Hader and insist on one inning.  He is clearly more valuable when we have flexibility.  Maybe we could give him a multi-year deal/guarantee that would express that value?

I absolutely believe that Ashby's contract "allowed" the Brewers to use him the way he's being used. It's a role that perhaps is valued by winning teams with pitching depth, even though it may be detrimental to the earning potential for the pitcher.

My two pet-favorite stats are innings-pitched, and runs scored, because they ARE counting stats that DO matter in the context of a single game. Every time a Brewer role player slides safely into home, or bridge those few outs in the middle, I feel like they earned their paychecks that day, and at the end of the season, Runs Scored and Innings Pitched show guys that post, and are believed to be the best option by the managers that play them that day.

Innings-pitched bonuses are prevalent in the game. I see no reason why that couldn't be emphasized more to better compensate guys like Ashby/Patrick, which would better reflect the value they have to teams.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

7 minutes ago, Playing Catch said:

I absolutely believe that Ashby's contract "allowed" the Brewers to use him the way he's being used. It's a role that perhaps is valued by winning teams with pitching depth, even though it may be detrimental to the earning potential for the pitcher.

My two pet-favorite stats are innings-pitched, and runs scored, because they ARE counting stats that DO matter in the context of a single game. Every time a Brewer role player slides safely into home, or bridge those few outs in the middle, I feel like they earned their paychecks that day, and at the end of the season, Runs Scored and Innings Pitched show guys that post, and are believed to be the best option by the managers that play them that day.

Innings-pitched bonuses are prevalent in the game. I see no reason why that couldn't be emphasized more to better compensate guys like Ashby/Patrick, which would better reflect the value they have to teams.

I know there is variability in relief pitching, but given he’s shown success in 2 years, I’d be in favor of giving Patrick that “Ashby contract”.

he turns 28 this year and we have him under control through 2031 (Age 33), but that would be a goodwill gesture that allows us to use him in the most valuable way to the team.  We could do arby year to year, but most players (rightfully so) once they’ve established themselves as MLB calibur players become more focused on counting stats and workload that will yield more favorable figures in Arby and/or FA

Given inflation… maybe offer a 5 year/$30 million extension with a team option for a 6th year/buyout?

given he’s already 28, he might be a good candidate to lock up with “life changing” money.

[folly412]

Patrick is our second or third best starter.  But none of Sproat, Henderson, or Gasser can be trusted with Patrick's current role.  Gasser probably compares vs. Drohan as the left-handed version of this role.  It has greater difficulty and more important innings.  Sproat and Henderson are tasked with trying to get about 5 innings of effective pitching in every 5-6 days.  Patrick has to get through the later leverage innings, and where the starters get the routine bullpen between starts, Patrick's "bullpen" is a shorter relief appearance in leverage like last night. 

[Jim French Stepstool]

7 minutes ago, folly412 said:

Patrick is our second or third best starter.  But none of Sproat, Henderson, or Gasser can be trusted with Patrick's current role.  

I don't know about him being the 2nd or 3rd best starter, but the rest is spot-on. The way the staff is constructed his current role is extremely valuable & he's been excellent at it---IMO too good to remove him if you can help it. Now he can back up his slurve with a FB that in shorter spurts can hit 96-97. I don't always follow the radar gun but I'm pretty sure he wasn't consistently hitting that when starting.

[cragi]

---

I think Sproat is the ideal candidate for this type of role at this point in his career. Completely dominates through 3-4 innings and then falls of a cliff with his command. Not sure he can be stretched out any time soon.

[SF70]

Patrick has incredible poise and he raises his game when the pressure is on like no Brewers pitcher I can remember. I like him pitching the highest of leverage innings the Brewers can find for him.

[Jim French Stepstool]

57 minutes ago, cragi said:

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I think Sproat is the ideal candidate for this type of role at this point in his career. Completely dominates through 3-4 innings and then falls of a cliff with his command. Not sure he can be stretched out any time soon.

IMO he could be effective in that role as long as he doesn't come in & take 8-10 pitches before finding his location, and I'd be concerned about that happening. Right now I'm a fan of starting Sproat & trying to get him to the point where he can get you 15-17 outs.

[titanrick]

My highly uneducated opinion is that he reminds me of young Corbin Burnes.  I wouldn't be surprised if he continues to excel in a bullpen role this year and gets stretched out for the rotation next year.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

1 hour ago, titanrick said:

My highly uneducated opinion is that he reminds me of young Corbin Burnes.  I wouldn't be surprised if he continues to excel in a bullpen role this year and gets stretched out for the rotation next year.

I think this is a good comparison and I hope history repeats itself

[LouisEly]

Just like 90% of middle infielders are better 2B than SS, 90% of pitchers are better relievers than starters.  That shouldn't be the deciding factor.

The deciding factors should be:

1. Is he good enough to be a MLB starter?  (Yes)
2. Is he one of the 5-6 best options for starters on the team?  (Maybe)

If the answer to #2 is no, he's in the bullpen.  If it's yes, he's in the rotation.  If it's maybe - "out getter".

[formerlybis]

I think the points are all good in this thread - I'm especially intrigued by the tension between role and earning potential. Civale complained about being "demoted" from starter to long reliever last year which ended up with him being almost instantly traded for some struggling AAAA first baseman from the White Sox (-: But I understand the complaint - the market favors starters and closers, and then probably one-inning set up guys. It's really useful to have these effective multi-inning guys, but they are not valued the same way.  Maybe that will change if the Brewers' Way gets more mainstreamed.