Jake Bauers

[TURBO]

There is going to come a time when we give up on guys like Wilken and Boeve, especially after they start getting passed up by the other talent in the minors.

To me, they seem like guys you can trade, and probably not miss a beat with the talent we have put together.

Question is, do other teams still value them?  I'd guess they would be ranked a lot higher as prospects in other team's systems compared to our own.

[cragi]

knew i was forgetting someone. yes, Burke. Logjam that needs clearing up. You can make that case that Bauers is the proven commodity in his prime, but that means he is likely to get paid long term, which makes no sense for the Brewers. 

That said, if CBA still nets prospects after this shakes out, perhaps a QO makes sense? A year of that thump in his prime is probably going to get outbid but doesnt hurt if he accepts.

[Playing Catch]

14 hours ago, cragi said:

Logjam that needs clearing up.

We've been anticipating this log-jam for months. I think most of us just figured that due to trade, injury, or performance, the hypothetical log-jam would straighten itself out.

But here we are, on the cusp of the mid-season acquisition window, and there haven't been any significant changes to the situation except for the oodles of performance the players are providing. The proverbial good place to be, with good problems to sort out.

There's a hypothetical limit to acquiring the best players where all of the good players are already on your team, so any addition is really just a subtraction from the whole. While I'm not suggesting the Brewers are at THAT point, I think that improving the 26-man will necessarily diminish the overall talent/value in the organization, which just doesn't seem to fit the Brewers' worldview. But I've said it before, this organization has never stopped evolving. Perhaps trading a bunch of prospects could be a new twist in that evolution. But I doubt it.

I think they are looking at all of those 40-man spots in 2027-2030 and they know they will want much of those spots to be filled with cheap, controllable talent.

I think that with the looming CBA, and with this current 26-man, the Brewers see this being a "peak" season for picking/biting apples. I think whatever moves are made are made with the idea that there will be a different team on the field in 2027. I think they move on from the bottom-half of the 26-man, and truly commit to Pratt, Lara, Quero and a number of the AA guys by June '27.

I think that if the Brewers make a "big" trade, it won't be for a rental like Skubal, but it will be some kind of suprise acquisition of a controllable guy, like when they traded for Contreras or Adames.

 

[cragi]

There just aren't as many holes to work with up and down the upper levels to add more talent. Adding a piece now likely means dropping someone else.

The positions that feel shakiest for prospects to me are catcher (lots of prospects but serious questions) and pitching. 

They could trade down to multiply lower level prospects and extend the window. Trade a 10-20 rank prospect for a few low-a pitchers. But that hasnt really been their approach either.

Or they find a trade partner willing to let go of a young conttollable upgrade at the MLB level as you say. Pitcher. Catcher. But that's not necessarily a trade deadline move. 

If the new CBA changes the prospect game, maybe best to hold your cards. But otherwise they are in good shape to position against the dodgers for this postseason

[GAME05]

Just holding onto Bauers represents our "go for it" move since he'd otherwise be gone were we out of contention.

Am I wrong to have the impression that any of the 1b prospects we have are all more on a 2028 timeline? If so, why not just pay Vaughn for next year and do what we can with what we've got to fill any platoon/backup hole? Can Yelich play 1b?

8 hours ago, cragi said:

The positions that feel shakiest for prospects to me are catcher (lots of prospects but serious questions) and pitching.

I've had that thought, too, because of Quero's injury. Looks like there's 2-3 guys around rank 20-30 who'd be great. Guys like Adamczewski/Adams/Wilken are pretty blocked. Is it crazy to trade prospects for prospects?

[cragi]

19 minutes ago, GAME05 said:

Am I wrong to have the impression that any of the 1b prospects we have are all more on a 2028 timeline?

Adams seems a 1B prospect in this defense-first system and his bat seems ready now. I definitely expect arbitration next year for Vaughn and for him to remain or make a trade if Adams is putting pressure on it. Burke and Fischer no later than 2028 at their pace.  

[Jopal78]

3 hours ago, cragi said:

Adams seems a 1B prospect in this defense-first system and his bat seems ready now. I definitely expect arbitration next year for Vaughn and for him to remain or make a trade if Adams is putting pressure on it. Burke and Fischer no later than 2028 at their pace.  

However they’re deploying Vaughn it is obviously working, however he  is making $7+ million dollars this season and is essentially a platoon player.

At a likely $9 or $10 million dollars for 2027, the Brewers will almost certainly non-tender him, which also likely tanks any trade value .

[Playing Catch]

12 hours ago, GAME05 said:

Is it crazy to trade prospects for prospects?

It's crazy enough that those trades don't happen very often. I think that it's hard to find motivated trading partners.

If you are the Rockies, trading for say, Blake Perkins and Tyler Black might make sense, as the Rockies likely need guys to play in the big leagues, but for a team like that, aren't they trying to stockpile prospects? Why would they send prospects back?

I suppose if you wanted to trade Luke Adams for 2 A-ball pitchers or something, that could make sense for both sides. You would basically be finding trade partners that could use some more 40-man/AAAA depth right now and are willing to trade future assets for that depth. Or perhaps teams believe so much in prospects like Adams, that they are banking he can be a regular with playing time.

[Outlander]

9 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

However they’re deploying Vaughn it is obviously working, however he  is making $7+ million dollars this season and is essentially a platoon player.

At a likely $9 or $10 million dollars for 2027, the Brewers will almost certainly non-tender him, which also likely tanks any trade value .

I know you like to non tender guys but in reality not likely going to happen. They tendered Hunter Renfroe and traded him. If the Brewers don't want to pay Vaughn they will tender and trade him.

[Jopal78]

32 minutes ago, Outlander said:

I know you like to non tender guys but in reality not likely going to happen. They tendered Hunter Renfroe and traded him. If the Brewers don't want to pay Vaughn they will tender and trade him.

It’s an opinion based on historical roster construction. If you take a look at the number of players the Brewers have with salaries above 9 million dollars it’s Yelich, Woodruff and Contreras. Anything is possible but given how they operate they’re just not going to carry a 9-10 million dollar platoon 1B. 
 

Note the second part of my post about tanking trade value. Sure they could tender Vaughn with the intention of immediately trading him in a salary dump just like they did with Renfroe (btw Renfroe was also likely  10+ million dollars in arbitration), but similarly the pieces coming back for a player in a straight salary dump are likely  depth pieces at best (Junk, Peguero, Seminaris), not to mention they would absolutely know they were trading him before tendering him a contract. 

[Outlander]

They are carrying a $7 million dollar 1B platoon, it isn't much different. When they tender Vaughn there isn't really pressure to trade him but they do like to trade players on the final year of a deal. It ultimately results in an almost zero chance of a non tender.

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, Outlander said:

They are carrying a $7 million dollar 1B platoon, it isn't much different. When they tender Vaughn there isn't really pressure to trade him but they do like to trade players on the final year of a deal. It ultimately results in an almost zero chance of a non tender.

Like I said, take the last 5-6 years and add up the players making more than 10 million dollars a year as a Brewer and NOT on a multi-year deal. 
 

If you want to go deeper, Vaughn’s metrics aren’t wholly that much better this year than with the White Sox. Better at taking pitches, better lineup, but there hasn’t been some rebirth. 
 

Is he going to join the rare club of Brewers making $10 million dollars a year, while coming off the bench…. I doubt it. They’d even be ahead to give Bauers the QO if it exists, and non-tender Vaughn to offset set the cost

[sveumrules]

11 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

If you want to go deeper, Vaughn’s metrics aren’t wholly that much better this year than with the White Sox. Better at taking pitches, better lineup, but there hasn’t been some rebirth. 

Vaughn White Sox (2451 PA)
248/303/407 (97 wRC+)
6.2 BB% | 20.4 K%
.322 xwOBA | .308 wOBA

Vaughn Brewers (402 PA)
319/394/506 (150 wRC+)
10.4 BB% | 12.9 K%
.369 xwOBA | .387 wOBA
 

[Jopal78]

5 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Vaughn White Sox (2451 PA)
248/303/407 (97 wRC+)
6.2 BB% | 20.4 K%
.322 xwOBA | .308 wOBA

Vaughn Brewers (402 PA)
319/394/506 (150 wRC+)
10.4 BB% | 12.9 K%
.369 xwOBA | .387 wOBA
 

I wrote This year… 

The approach/pitch selection is markedly improved but the exit velocity this year is basically the same as it was with Chicago, his hard hit rate is down and his barrel rate has cratered. The .528 slugging percentage on the stat sheet is real, but the xSLG is .407 suggesting the power output is probably running ahead of underlying contact.  
 

He’s getting better results but the ball is not coming off the bat harder than with Chicago, and with a BABiP of .369 that tells us there will likely be some regression by the time the dust clears. 
 

 

 

[sveumrules]

4 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

I wrote This year… 

The approach/pitch selection is markedly improved but the exit velocity this year is basically the same as it was with Chicago, his hard hit rate is down and his barrel rate has cratered. The .528 slugging percentage on the stat sheet is real, but the xSLG is .407 suggesting the power output is probably running ahead of underlying contact.  

He’s getting better results but the ball is not coming off the bat harder than with Chicago, and with a BABiP of .369 that tells us there will likely be some regression by the time the dust clears. 

Not sure why you would want to exclude his results from last year with the Brewers since that is when his turnaround began? The Brewers will certainly be taking that information into consideration when deciding whether to tender him or not, as will other teams if he ends up non-tendered.

White Sox
46.4 HardHit% | 9.3 Barrel% | 105.4 EV90
.322 xwOBA | .308 wOBA

Brewers
45.4 HardHit% | 8.2 Barrel% | 104.9 EV90
.369 xwOBA | .386 wOBA

So if Vaughn's HH%, B%, and EV90 have all declined how have his xwOBA and wOBA increased so much?

Because we also have to consider things like his batted ball distribution in terms of both type and directionality.

White Sox (98 BABIP+)
92 LD+ | 103 GB+ | 101 FB+
90 Pull+ | 104 Cent+ | 111 Oppo+

Brewers (117 BABIP+)
114 LD+ | 98 GB+ | 95 FB+
89 Pull+ | 115 Cent+ | 97 Oppo+

I'm not saying Vaughn is a true talent 117 BABIP+ kind of guy, but over the last two years league average on line drives is a .701 BA and 353 wRC+ so cranking his raw line drive rate from 18.2% with the White Sox (219th of 251 hitters min. 1500 PA from 2021-25) up to 22.4% with the Brewers (39th of 299 hitters min. 400 PA from 2025-26) will naturally lead to across the board increases.

His lowly pull rate has remained about the same, but he's traded a bunch of opposite field contact for up the middle contact. This again should naturally lead to an increase in production since up the middle contact (.312 BA | 106 wRC+ last two years) gets slightly better results league wide than opposite field contact (.302 BA | 100 wRC+ last two years).

Of course Vaughn is due for regression, his 149 wRC+ with the Brewers is tied with Junior Caminero for 9th in MLB since July 7th of last year. But he has also fundamentally changed who he is as a hitter in many ways since he was a White Sox so whatever regression he does incur should still leave him well above his results with the South Siders. His current .369 xwOBA since joining the Brewers would shake out to around a 136 wRC+ or so over that stretch right between Turang (.366 wOBA | 134 wRC+) and Bauers (.371 wOBA | 137 wRC+).

[cragi]

just wondering if the hamate has sapped a little power. EVs are down a bit from a last year's peak year, even with the luxury of facing lefties. But purely as a hitter, he seems very different than with the ChiSox and still building on last year.

[Jopal78]

3 hours ago, sveumrules said:

Not sure why you would want to exclude his results from last year with the Brewers since that is when his turnaround began? The Brewers will certainly be taking that information into consideration when deciding whether to tender him or not, as will other teams if he ends up non-tendered.

White Sox
46.4 HardHit% | 9.3 Barrel% | 105.4 EV90
.322 xwOBA | .308 wOBA

Brewers
45.4 HardHit% | 8.2 Barrel% | 104.9 EV90
.369 xwOBA | .386 wOBA

So if Vaughn's HH%, B%, and EV90 have all declined how have his xwOBA and wOBA increased so much?

Because we also have to consider things like his batted ball distribution in terms of both type and directionality.

White Sox (98 BABIP+)
92 LD+ | 103 GB+ | 101 FB+
90 Pull+ | 104 Cent+ | 111 Oppo+

Brewers (117 BABIP+)
114 LD+ | 98 GB+ | 95 FB+
89 Pull+ | 115 Cent+ | 97 Oppo+

I'm not saying Vaughn is a true talent 117 BABIP+ kind of guy, but over the last two years league average on line drives is a .701 BA and 353 wRC+ so cranking his raw line drive rate from 18.2% with the White Sox (219th of 251 hitters min. 1500 PA from 2021-25) up to 22.4% with the Brewers (39th of 299 hitters min. 400 PA from 2025-26) will naturally lead to across the board increases.

His lowly pull rate has remained about the same, but he's traded a bunch of opposite field contact for up the middle contact. This again should naturally lead to an increase in production since up the middle contact (.312 BA | 106 wRC+ last two years) gets slightly better results league wide than opposite field contact (.302 BA | 100 wRC+ last two years).

Of course Vaughn is due for regression, his 149 wRC+ with the Brewers is tied with Junior Caminero for 9th in MLB since July 7th of last year. But he has also fundamentally changed who he is as a hitter in many ways since he was a White Sox so whatever regression he does incur should still leave him well above his results with the South Siders. His current .369 xwOBA since joining the Brewers would shake out to around a 136 wRC+ or so over that stretch right between Turang (.366 wOBA | 134 wRC+) and Bauers (.371 wOBA | 137 wRC+).

Last year is last year. Who cares?
I hope teams they don’t build a roster for 2027 based on what players did  in 2025. 
 

I get the metrics and it doesn’t make what I said untrue: 

Vaughn is getting better results, but the ball is not coming off his bat harder than it did with the Sox. In fact some of the power-contact numbers are worse now than with Chicago. 
 

We also know the Brewers hand out $10 million dollar salaries very infrequently, so the question becomes is $10M for a platoon first baseman/DH with shaky power-contact metrics the best use of that money? 
 

Based on their recent roster building trends I think they move on from Vaughn as a non-tender/salary dump. 

 

[cragi]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

Based on their recent roster building trends I think they move on from Vaughn as a non-tender/salary dump. 

 

Brewers have been willing to pay guys like OHearn for one year as a proven stopgap. I cant see them unloading Vaughn over that price tag, unless someone like Adams was forcing the issue, especially with Bauers likely gone. But even then, you keep Vaughn and he has trade value in-season or offseason. I dont think its realistic they just let him walk at that price.