1/2 Way Observations

[Jimbo]

Plate appearances that move the win probability 20 points or more either way.

Contreras    6 big hits, 1 bad hit
Bauers         5 big hits, 1 bad hit
Mitchell       4 big hits
Turang         4 big hits, 1 bad hit
Perkins         3 big hits
Yelich            3 big hits
Vaughn         2 big hits, 1 bad hit
Chourio         2 big hits, 1 bad send
Frelick           1 big hit
Harrison       1 big hit
Lockridge      1 big hit
Sanchez        1 big hit, 2 bad hits
 

[Thurston Fluff]

32 minutes ago, Trail said:

Very different teams...they don't get it done the same way.  That's not my point.  I'm referring to the overall demeanor and  how the previous year affected both teams and expectations.  Most here don't remember it, but in '82 a deep playoff run just seemed inevitable.  It was really a little bit weird.  No one questioned it.  That, I think, is the reason Buck Rogers was given a shorter leash than he might have been.  They were going...period.  Same thing this year...whether they get there or not only time will tell, but it just has the same feeling and it looks to me that's how the club sees it.  They're a mature, seasoned team, despite their relative youth.  

Funny, I felt the same way about the 2018 team. Until they didn't. I also felt a certain level of inevitability during the 82 season. Both teams won on the last day of the regular season and had to come back from down two, in the championship series and both had home field advantage. The only difference is the 2018 Brewers had best record in the league. I also had a feeling of inevitability in the WS. That didn't pan out so well. I think a lot of us had that feeling in 2011 too. We all know how that went. I have a feeling a lot of fans feel that way right up until it's gone. It's a belief there will be an occasion when it actually happens that keeps us coming back.

[Samurai Bucky]

1 hour ago, Thurston Fluff said:

I get people's overreaction to the poor showing against the Dodgers last fall but even that was not indicative of how close we were. We just had a bad series after a let down from finally winning a playoff series. I think sweeping the season series tells us as much as a single series. Which is to say, not much. This year we have more experience in what it takes to move on in the playoffs and we seem to have a better team going into it. 

They are learning how to take the next step.  Were Dodger fans ready to jump ship when they weren't doing as well last year?  By "weren't doing as well," I mean not winning 140 games.

By the end of the season, I want to see them be healthy, have good momentum, and know that their stars will be able to step up and do what they need to do.  That starts on the mound.

I would not be surprised if the Crew gets one or two more bullpen arms and a top starter.  Third base would be another welcome addition.  

[Turning2]

1 hour ago, Trail said:

Very different teams...they don't get it done the same way.  That's not my point.  I'm referring to the overall demeanor and  how the previous year affected both teams and expectations.  Most here don't remember it, but in '82 a deep playoff run just seemed inevitable.  It was really a little bit weird.  No one questioned it.  That, I think, is the reason Buck Rogers was given a shorter leash than he might have been.  They were going...period.  Same thing this year...whether they get there or not only time will tell, but it just has the same feeling and it looks to me that's how the club sees it.  They're a mature, seasoned team, despite their relative youth.  

I hope you're "team of destiny" impression is right. There was a similar feeling when the Packers finally got back to the SB in the '96 season to beat the Pats except they mostly imposed their will all season. Can't really do that in a 162 season. 

[owbc]

44 minutes ago, Turning2 said:

They are currently in a 3 way tie for 25th in total HRs as a team. Specifying "top of our order" moves the goal posts of the discussion. Certainly the top is going to bring more power than the bottom of the order. That's true with practically every team. For sake of the distinction though, boil it down to Yelich, Chourio, Contreras, Bauers, Turang and Vaughn. On paper that looks like a tremendous amount of pop (especially if we add in Mitchell AND he was living up to his power hype - which he's not).

Bauers is MIL's top HR hitter currently. He is ranked 38th in MLB at 14.  That doesn't scream they "can slug with anyone" to me. To be fair, Yelich, Vaughn, and Chourio missed most of the first month or so. But again, to be fair, that hasn't really mattered. Yelich has become the ghost of power hitter past and Vaughn has traded power for average. Chourio is putting up respectable numbers. Turang started hot, then dropped like a rock, still likely to hit the 20 or more mark. Contreras like to end up with his usual numbers around 18. 

Obviously, overall slugging is more than HRs. But as a quick way to measure I go by HRs because the slugging follows suit more often than not. I just don't see the "we're fine, they can slug with anyone" that you feel. At the end of the day, they're more likely to come up short in Oct again because they don't have enough big pop in the lineup than they are to ride their top pitching and sub adequate power. Just my opinion. 

I get that there is an hypothesis going around that you have to hit a large number of home runs to win in the postseason, with the argument being that you face mostly high leverage pitching so you can't string baserunners together and are better off just trying to hit mistakes out of the ballpark. 

I don't know that I buy it. By that logic we should have lost to the Cubs last year since they were 6th in regular season home runs and we were 22nd. 

The list of why we lost to the Dodgers has about 10 other things of equal importance on it. 

Out of the other LCS teams...2025 Toronto was maybe a beacon to aim for because they had a balanced offense with league-average home run hitting (191 HR vs. 188 league average). However, they have failed to replicate that success in 2026 and are now near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories. 

Seattle is another perhaps. They are generally a poor offensive team but are optimized for their home ballpark which favors home runs over singles and doubles. Again, they have failed to replicate their 2025 success and are near the bottom of the league in scoring (despite being #10 in HR). Seattle's first game against Skubal was perhaps an example of home run hitting winning a game, with Jorge Polanco getting 2 solo HR in a 3-2 win (ALDS game 2). However, in their second game against Skubal (ALDS game 5) they scored off him with a more Brewers-like double-stolen base-sac fly combo. In both cases it was ultimately their ability to work long ABs and drive up Skubal's pitch count that won them those games, with the winning hits in both coming off of bullpen arms. 

[Day]

7 hours ago, formerlybis said:

It’s a matter of perspective. For me, I’m overall ecstatic with the results, and that’s the bottom line. No team goes half a season with everything always at peak performance. It’s a very competitive team that finds ways to stack Ws. I find even more satisfaction doing this with the budgetary constraints. 
 

When it comes to the postseason, I have hope, but not expectations. It’s just the way it is  Once in a great while, perhaps once in a lifetime, the stars align and a Leicester wins the Premier League. It does happen, but it is far more likely the teams with a bevy of high priced superstars will win most of the time. Until the rules change (and not holding my breath), we’re more like Leicester than Liverpool.

Excellent post and as a Liverpool fan your analogy is spot on the brewers have the odds stacked against them but I deffo think they are capable of making the WS and if they do I don’t think anything the AL can put against us will stop us winning 

[Turning2]

47 minutes ago, owbc said:

I get that there is an hypothesis going around that you have to hit a large number of home runs to win in the postseason, with the argument being that you face mostly high leverage pitching so you can't string baserunners together and are better off just trying to hit mistakes out of the ballpark. 

I don't know that I buy it. By that logic we should have lost to the Cubs last year since they were 6th in regular season home runs and we were 22nd. 

The list of why we lost to the Dodgers has about 10 other things of equal importance on it. 

Out of the other LCS teams...2025 Toronto was maybe a beacon to aim for because they had a balanced offense with league-average home run hitting (191 HR vs. 188 league average). However, they have failed to replicate that success in 2026 and are now near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories. 

Seattle is another perhaps. They are generally a poor offensive team but are optimized for their home ballpark which favors home runs over singles and doubles. Again, they have failed to replicate their 2025 success and are near the bottom of the league in scoring (despite being #10 in HR). Seattle's first game against Skubal was perhaps an example of home run hitting winning a game, with Jorge Polanco getting 2 solo HR in a 3-2 win (ALDS game 2). However, in their second game against Skubal (ALDS game 5) they scored off him with a more Brewers-like double-stolen base-sac fly combo. In both cases it was ultimately their ability to work long ABs and drive up Skubal's pitch count that won them those games, with the winning hits in both coming off of bullpen arms. 

It's not just about the long ball. But if the long ball isn't one of the team's strengths, you can't have the "beat them with 1000 paper cut" singles clam up either. If / when that happens, it's easier to hope to get somebody on via a scattered hit, HBP, walk, speed forcing a bad throw and then get a 2 run shot. Maybe turn a 5-0 game back into a game with one swing, get some momentum. Counting on stringing bunches of hits together with a stolen base in the mix is a recipe for disappointment if they have to get past the LA All Stars is all I'm saying. 

[Local Man Brewer Fan]

10 hours ago, Trail said:

I’d love to know if others are seeing this, but it just seems like this team has an air of unfinished business. The demeanor of the team seems a little bit more hard-core and business like this year. You don’t see the fun celebrations with the weird hats and necklaces after Home runs… It’s just let’s get back to business. 

as an older fan, I see some parallels between the 25/26 Brewers and the 81/82 Brewers. Situation was different and the playoff structure was different, but the 81 Brewers lost to the Yankees in the playoffs and learned a great deal. Most importantly, they learned that they were an elite team and belonged.The following year it was as if they expected to be there and just needed to go out and get the job done. Kind of the same feeling this year. They are no longer grateful to be in the playoffs… They expect to win the division, expect to be in the NLCS…anything less than a World Series appearance I think will be a disappointment to this team and this organization. That is a huge step forward.

I am also an older fan, and I agree with your assessment of the team demeaner. However, the 82 Brewers were a veteran team - similar to the makeup of the Cubs. For the Brewers, as a very young team, to show this sort of, shall we say, confidence - is very interesting indeed. It also makes it interesting to recall Murphs opening monologe to team team that ended with - if I recall - DO NOT BE SHOCKED.

If I have any concern for this team, it is the possibility of attrition during the dog days of August and beyond. That being said, this franchise has never been stronger. It appears to me that their "window" is just starting to open right now - and has a multi-year run in front of us. Because of the perceived length of the runway - I am not sure whether they should be throwing all cards in for this year.

But I would love to hear why many of you think I am wrong - because I might be,

[da swedish german]

On 6/29/2026 at 5:38 PM, yourout said:

My take is this team is much like last year's. Very good at making weaker opponents bleed with walks and errors but when we run into teams that play good defense and don't walk guys we're going to struggle.

why do we continuously have among the best records against +.500 teams then? 

[Trail]

On 6/29/2026 at 5:38 PM, yourout said:

My take is this team is much like last year's. Very good at making weaker opponents bleed with walks and errors but when we run into teams that play good defense and don't walk guys we're going to struggle.

They have the best record in all of baseball against teams over .500. Not sure what more they need to do.

[Playing Catch]

That '82 Team gave away as many runs on defense as they gained with the long ball.