Desperately Seeking Andrew Fischer Comps

[Steven Jewell]

Image courtesy of © Dave Kallmann / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

As you may have heard, Brewers top-10 prospect Andrew Fischer recently mashed his way to a promotion to Double-A Biloxi. For High-A Wisconsin, Fischer slashed an elite .298/.443/.675, with 20 home runs. That performance was good for a 170 wRC+, the second-highest (min. 200 PA) in the Midwest League’s history as a High-A league (since 2021). His .377 ISO, .675 SLG%, and 1.118 OPS are the highest marks in the league over that time. 

Since moving to the Southern League, Fischer has seemingly gotten even better, albeit in a tiny sample. At the time of writing, the lefty-swinging third baseman is slashing an otherworldly .282/.417/.846 with the Biloxi Shuckers, with 6 homers in 12 games.

It's impossible not to get excited about a season like this. And when we get excited about a minor-league hitter, I feel it's sensible to understand how that player's profile has worked (or not worked) in the majors. When looking for major-league comps, we must also dig into the peripherals, and there are some stats in Fischer’s game that do not align with being a dominant, high-average hitter moving forward. First, for a college bat in High-A, he struck out a lot, at 33.3%. Currently, 33.3% is also his strikeout rate at Double A. 

His contact rate, per FanGraphs, was 62% in High-A and sits at 68% so far with Biloxi. These metrics throw some cold water on the Fischer hype, as contact rate is one of the things hitters can’t survive without. For reference, the lowest qualified contact rate in the majors in 2026 is Oneil Cruz's 64.6%. Still, Fischer's success so far should mean that his exit velocities (which are not publicly available at the levels at which he's played this year) are off the charts—much as Cruz's are.

A recent example of a Brewers player with elite exit velocities but bottom-of-the-league contact is Keston Hiura. In his rookie campaign in 2019, Hiura ranked in the 96th percentile for exit velo, but the 3rd percentile for Whiff%. He didn't always have top-tier exit velos thereafter, but Hiura did always struggle with contact. At least for now, Hiura's big-league career is on hold, and he sits at a career 35.9% strikeout rate while he plays in the KBO.

Fischer also had a cartoonishly high PullAir% in High-A (35%). That stat, appropriately, measures the percentage of a hitter's batted balls that are pulled in the air. In High-A this year, Fischer ranks first among all hitters in the metric, a full five percentage points higher than the next closest player. He also had a 0.46 GB/FB ratio, which would be good for the second-most extreme flyball tendency in the majors this year.

While Fischer has hit for average so far in the minor leagues, hitters with this extreme pulled-flyball batted-ball profile generally do not hit even .240 in the majors. Let's take a look at some hitters with a pull rate over 50% (Fischer's was 56% in A+) and GB/FB under .70. Out of 859 qualified players since 2010, only 5 hitters qualify under those constraints. For now, we're including players with any strikeout rate. I’ve added their career slash lines from 2010-present:

• Cal Raleigh: .221/.310/.468
• Joey Gallo: .194/.319/.456
• Scott Hairston: .229/.285/.426
• Chris Young: .236/.318/.423
• Danny Jansen: .216/.308/.408

Broadly, the primary driver of these players' low batting averages is the number of flyballs they hit, though low contact (looking at Raleigh & Gallo) plays a significant role as well. While average launch angle matters here, the typical BABIP on flyballs is well under .200. This means hitters face an uphill battle if they're looking to hit a ton of flyballs and still hit for average.

This year, Raleigh—by far the best hitter on this list—is struggling for the first time since his rookie year, and he's currently hitting .164. The next-best hitter on this list, Gallo, is still the poster child for mashing the baseball and whiffing constantly. His time in the majors came to an end after he hit .166 from 2022-24, though he had a remarkably productive career for a hitter who struck out 38% of the time.

An example of a player who has pulled off the extreme pull-air profile with a league-average batting average is Byron Buxton. He hits a ton of fly balls, pulls the ball a lot, and has a career .304 BABIP. Of course, Buxton is also a top-of-the-league runner, which will always positively influence batting average on balls in play.

After weeding out other speedy players and trying to focus more on high strikeout rates, I have a few more potential comps for Fischer, representing wildly different levels of optimism:

• Patrick Wisdom: .206/.288/.452
• Matt Wallner: .223/.333/.461
• Kyle Schwarber: .232/.348/.505

All three of these hitters have struck out a ton, and Wisdom and Wallner both struggled with Ks in the minors, as well. Like Buxton, all three were also very close to qualifying under my admittedly arbitrary pull% and GB/FB metrics above.

The reason I like these three comps is that they embody three distinct tiers of "extreme pull-hitter who strikes out." Wisdom overcame his strikeout rate to an extent and has had a solid but unspectacular career. Wallner is struggling in 2026, but has great career numbers. Schwarber is arguably the best power hitter on the planet.

Wisdom had a three-year peak with the Cubs from 2021-23 wherein he averaged a 109 OPS+ with 25 home runs per year, despite playing part-time in two out of three of those years. He was generally a third baseman and utility player. Then, in 2024, Wisdom hit .171 and was non-tendered at the end of the year. Wisdom is also a righty batter, which of course Fischer is not.

Matt Wallner is currently my favorite comp for Fischer, even down to their origins. Here’s an excerpt from a 2023 article in which FanGraphs ranked Wallner as the Twins #8 prospect: 

Quote

“Wallner struck out 31% of the time in 2021, somewhat concerning for a 23-year-old in A-ball, but he has gigantic pop that he’s always gotten to in games... Wallner was at or near the top of every measurable power category in the minors [in 2022]… His 70% Z-contact% last year would have comfortably ranked last among qualified big league hitters”

That all sounds extremely familiar. Fischer is younger than Wallner was in 2021, having just turned 22, but hes still a college bat with a lot of experience (at least for High-A ball). And of course, like Wallner, Fischer has been absolutely striping the ball.

Unfortunately for our attempt to confidently sketch a comp, Wallner has never played a full season, due to injuries. However, from 2023-25, he did accumulate 907 plate appearances with 49 home runs and a 129 OPS+. This year, Wallner got off to a tough start, and hes currently back in Triple-A. He was hitting .167 at the time of his demotion, with a 39.3% strikeout rate.

Finally, of course, we know Schwarber, former Cub and one of the absolute premier power hitters in the league today. This year, Schwarber is mashing despite one of the worst strikeout rates in the league, with the second-highest PullAir%. He also leads the league in homers and slugging average. Schwarber should be viewed as the absolute peak of what we have seen from an extreme flyball masher. He also struck out just 21% of the time in his extremely short minor-league career.

Fischer would need to have absolutely elite batted-ball numbers at the highest level to have a chance to hit anything like Schwarber, but we also haven't talked at all about defense. If Fischer can stick at the hot corner, his value will be significantly higher than if he ends up at first. For whatever it’s worth, FanGraphs late-2025 prospect write-up for the Brewers included optimism that Fischer would stick at third base.

Offensively, Fischer looks to be your modern-classic lefty masher who walks, strikes out, and hits a lot of home runs. It will be key that his contact rates and strikeouts even out as he moves up, as he simply doesn’t have the wiggle room. And as with most mashers, Fischer will also need to hit for just enough average to let his power do the rest. 

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[Stealofhome]

Very good piece and tons of great analysis here! Shameless plug but I have a work in progress prospect comp site I'm working on based on BB/K/ISO/Speed and Fischer is one of the players I've been watching to make sure the comps make sense. The first player listed on there is Chris Dennis. Schwarber and Paul Goldschmidt make an appearance as well.

A little more detail on my recent blog entry.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Nice article.  He has been one of the more difficult players to predict.  Hard to ignore the production but I've been just holding my breath to see if the K's can come down.  Wallner as a comp is most encouraging.  That would be a great outcome especially if he can stay at 3rd.  I'm hoping Wisdom is the floor.  A lot of pop for at least a few years would be better than nothing.  I dont even want to dream on Schwarber and get my hopes up.  I did physically shudder when you mentioned Huira.  Let's hope that does not happen.

[WAN2]

I recall Eddie Mathews working hard to become a decent 3rd baseman.  And succeeding.  Gorgeous swing.  

[Brian]

Maybe they should promote Andrew Fischer to Nashville because Milwaukee Brewers infield prospect Brock Wilken has had some tough luck the last 2 years. Brock recently returned from an 8-to-10-week absence on the 7-Day Injured List for a dislocated left kneecap (patella) sustained during a June 2025 celebration. Prior to this, he notably missed significant time in April 2024 with multiple facial fractures after being hit by a pitch in the face. 

[keephopealive]

I mentioned this over at BCB.  If Fischer were to play 162 games at his current rate, He'd hit 66 HRs and strike out over 240 times.  The former would be a record for non-proven-PED seasons, but the latter would also be a record.  I gave the Schwarber comparison, but also mentioned past Brewers like Gorman Thomas and Rob Deer.  Both HRs and Ks are much more common now than they were 40 years ago, so numbers don't match up.  I also mentioned that his K/HR and BB/K ratio are comparable to Aaron Judge, and he's actually ahead of where Judge was at a similar age in the minors, both in performance and level. 

[Playing Catch]

Good article. He's really hard to comp, I think. Particularly with his observed numbers. If a guy is hard to comp, that usually means that all the players like them failed to make it in the big leagues. We don't remember the lesser players. So, with that said, when I watch him hit, he reminds me of some combination of the following successful players...

Kyle Seager
Ben Rice
Phil Plantier
J.D. Drew
Jeff Bagwell
Barry Bonds
Joey Votto

But NONE of those guys struck out like Fisher does. If Fisher is ever successful carrying a +30% K-rate in MLB he's going to be wild to watch. It would most likely be Oneil Cruz-like, w/o the carrying physical tools.

[Snoebird]

1 hour ago, WAN2 said:

I recall Eddie Mathews working hard to become a decent 3rd baseman.  And succeeding.  Gorgeous swing.  

Mathews had a lot of chest bruises for his efforts. It's hard to envision a muscle-bound slugger achieving the Brewers' high defensive standards at third base. We are currently in a stage of accepting that Cooper Pratt doesn't have the range or tools to rival Joey Ortiz at short (who does?) while at the same time marveling over Joey's acrobatic defense at third. What would a left side tandem of Pratt and Fischer look like? The likelihood of a Pratt-Made tandem would seem to leave Fischer at first base. Fischer fashions himself as a Bryce Harper knockoff, so we shall see. 

[Playing Catch]

5 minutes ago, Snoebird said:

Fischer fashions himself as a Bryce Harper knockoff

Good comp

[Michael Trzinski]

Russell Branyan, anyone?

[JohnBriggs12]

Munetaka Murakami

Look at his stats.  They scream Andrew Fischer's future.

[MadScientist]

1 hour ago, Michael Trzinski said:

Russell Branyan, anyone?

That's who I was going to say.  Branyan's minor league numbers look a lot like Fischer's.  Hopefully if Fischer makes it to Milwaukee, he stays healthy.  

[jay87shot]

I think Chris Davis hopefully pre-contract is a good comp..

Both or lefty (right handed arm) power bats with k issues. 3B, 1B, probably try OF.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I was trying to find a minor league comp for a college pick who both struck out a ton and was really successful in their first full season. I think the closest I could find in the last decade-plus was Jud Fabian, but he was never this successful. Fischer is fascinating both because most guys who strike out 1/3 of the time don’t have this much success and because unlike someone like LaViolette, this wasn’t really expected based upon his college play. That at least raises the hope there are adjustments to be made  if the power can’t compensate for the k-rate once he hits the big leagues.

[sveumrules]

Some guys from 2021 to 2025 (min. 1,500 PA) sorted by K%+ that were still able to top a 100 wRC+...

Oneil Cruz (1836 PA)
97 AVG+ | 124 ISO+ | 104 wRC+
115 BB+ | 145 K+

Eugenio Suarez (3424 PA)
93 AVG+ | 138 ISO+ | 110 wRC+
108 BB+ | 134 K+

Elly De La Cruz (2120 PA)
104 AVG+ | 122 ISO+ | 109 wRC+
109 BB+ | 133 K+

Giancarlo Stanton (2282 PA)
97 AVG+ | 155 ISO+ | 121 wRC+
120 BB+ | 133 K+

Kyle Schwarber (3651 PA)
95 AVG+ | 179 ISO+ | 137 wRC+
174 BB+ | 131 K+

Tyler O'Neill (2027 PA)
98 AVG+ | 134 ISO+ | 115 wRC+
114 BB+ | 130 K+

Cal Raleigh (2707 PA)
91 AVG+ | 156 ISO+ | 120 wRC+
132 BB+ | 126 K+

Brent Rooker (2291 PA)
104 AVG+ | 143 ISO+ | 126 wRC+
110 BB+ | 125 K+

Some of the other 3TO guys mentioned upthread at peak...

2008-10 Branyan (1085 PA)
93 AVG+ | 174 ISO+ | 126 wRC+
130 BB+ | 171 K+

2012-15 Chris Davis (2430 PA)
100 AVG+ | 184 ISO+ | 136 wRC+
132 BB+ | 157 K+

2017-21 Joey Gallo (2248 PA)
83 AVG+ | 167 ISO+ | 117 wRC+
179 BB+ | 162 K+

2026 Murakami (246 PA)
99 AVG+ | 206 ISO+ | 156 wRC+
197 BB+ | 146 K+

[izzi]

Package him with someone for a Skubal rental. Or trade him straight up for Arenado. Then finding comps is someone else's trouble.

[wallus]

2 hours ago, izzi said:

Package him with someone for a Skubal rental. Or trade him straight up for Arenado. Then finding comps is someone else's trouble.

Arenado is old and not good. 

[ChapelHeel66]

I have a Major League Equivalent calculation of Fischer, and ran some MLB player-season comps at Fischer's mean projection age 27 (and also the upper and lower bands of an 80% confidence interval).

For the comps, I use HR Rate, BB Rate, SO Rate, OBP, SLG, Speed Score split into two components, and handedness, and an age factor.  

Comparable seasons at my mean MLE projection for him at age 27 included Will Myers 2019,  our own Jake Bauers 2023, Steven Souza 2015 and Patrick Wisdom 2022.  None of those are particularly good seasons, but they aren't terrible (think 720-ish OPS).  The strikeouts are big problem.

His upside at the 80% confidence level (age 27) produced the likes of Bryan LaHair 2012, Domingo Santana 2019, Ryan McMahon 2019, Ian Happ 2021, and Jamie Outman 2023.  The names are not exciting, but those are some decent seasons (think 775-ish OPS).

Also in the range of encouraging outcomes are seasons from Justin Upton, William Contreras and Brandon Lowe. At the low band, seasons from Michael Toglia, Oswaldo Arcia, Joey Bart, Michael Toglia and Christopher Morel (think 645 OPS).

*The comps are hitting only.  They do not take position into account.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

I think Murakami is a fantastic comparison for the type of player Fischer is. Right down to the below average glove and run tool. 

[shanedog19]

Any chance we see him in Milwaukee by the end of the year? Do we really have anything to lose considering how bad we suck at third base right now?

[maxximus]

2 hours ago, shanedog19 said:

Any chance we see him in Milwaukee by the end of the year? Do we really have anything to lose considering how bad we suck at third base right now?

no way i see him moving that fast...buuuuuut, if he mashed like he is now for rest of the season and they brought him late because of an injury to Bauers or someone, he'd be an intriguing bench bat for the playoffs given his attributes