Sources: Brewers "Starting Conversations" About Aggressive Trade Deadline Moves, But Unlikely to Make One

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Jovanny Hernandez / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Rather than sit and wait until the final few days, the Milwaukee Brewers have proactively explored trades that would be more aggressive than their typical deadline upgrades, sources familiar with the team's movement said this week. A member of a front office who heard from the Brewers recently said that the team is "starting conversations, where they used to be more of a listening [team]" at this stage in July. Rumors of a potential reunion with Freddy Peralta, a splashy pursuit of Tarik Skubal, or even an all-out blockbuster to acquire Mason Miller and create the hardest-throwing starter-closer combination in baseball history have all swirled around the organization.

Much of the smoke, however, has no real fire to it, according to people with knowledge of trade conversations in multiple front offices. The Brewers aren't seen as motivated enough to give up any of their true top prospects. Their second-tier guys would be the cream of the crop in many farm systems throughout baseball, but even those players felt "off-limits" in deals for mid-tier targets, according to a source with another team. Milwaukee isn't willing to sell Josh Adamczewski, Bishop Letson or Tyson Hardin for pennies on the dollar just because they have lots of talent lying around.

The team is focused on moves that would bolster their pitching staff; that much is true. They've talked to the Detroit Tigers about several pitchers, including the obvious candidates (Tarik Skubal and Jack Flaherty, whom they've explored acquiring in the past; Casey Mize, a fellow impending free-agent righty starter) and some less obvious ones (Drew Anderson and Kyle Finnegan). They've reached out to the Angels to gauge the availability of Reid Detmers, but didn't find the asking price reasonable, a source said. They've closely monitored the rehab and return of Shane Bieber to the Blue Jays.

Of that group, Skubal and Detmers are the two who would move the needle for most Brewers fans. Unsurprisingly, though, they seem the least likely of the bunch to actually come to Milwaukee; the team and its could-be suitors just don't seem close to agreeing on the right value for either hurler. Instead, a creative deal is more likely. Intradivisional trades for Dustin May or Brady Singer are viewed as more realistic. Giants southpaw Robbie Ray is "a really good one to watch," according to one league source, who noted that the Brewers have an "up arrow" next to Ray because of the changes he's made to his arsenal this season.

Assuming all goes well with his ramp-up, Kyle Harrison figures to retake the second spot in the Brewers' starting rotation down the stretch, alongside the overpowering Jacob Misiorowski. The team needs help more in terms of depth than in terms of top-end quality, and they place a high value on young players other teams might trade more freely. 

Don't hold your breath for a repeat of the Summer of CC Sabathia in Milwaukee. That the Brewers have even looked into the possibility is exciting, but it signals their broader willingness to chase greatness, rather than a specific plan to acquire one player. They're far more likely to make a smaller move, because a smaller move is all that's needed, and the Brewers only make the moves they need to make. No team in baseball is better-positioned to give up prospects for a chance to win a championship, except that for the Brewers, the only way to keep building toward a championship is to retain prospects and maximize their value. More importantly, the team rightly thinks they have as good a chance at a championship as anyone this year, even if they only add at the margins.

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[Samurai Bucky]

There you have it.  The Brewers can put the press clippings of the "best farm system" in place of where a World Series trophy could be.

Even with "selling" tier 2 prospects, the Brewers would most likely be near the top as far as being the "best farm system".  I don't want them to give up the farm, but c'mon...

[wibadgers23]

This is just the reality of how this front office works. We haven't seen Matt Arnold trade away any blue chip prospects yet. Esteury Ruiz was the closest. This is why I'm done getting my hopes up every trade deadline. If we do something big then great. If not, then it's just par for the course. 

[Jopal78]

5 minutes ago, Samurai Bucky said:

There you have it.  The Brewers can put the press clippings of the "best farm system" in place of where a World Series trophy could be.

Even with "selling" tier 2 prospects, the Brewers would most likely be near the top as far as being the "best farm system".  I don't want them to give up the farm, but c'mon...

It is what it is. When free agents in the caliber of Mitch Garver, Jeimer Candelario, Alex Cobb, etc, sign free agent deals for in excess of $10 million per season. Can you really blame the Milwaukee Brewers for wanting to hang on to their young talent?

[homer]

I'll repeat what I've said before...I am not sure this is the year to cash in your chips. Miz is now on a pitch count, Harrison has arm troubles, there are holes in the pen, etc. I think making some moves around the margins again is fine unless you get someone in return who is controllable for more than the rest of the season.

[Brewcrew82]

I fundamentally disagree with the assessment that the Brewers have less of a need at the top of their rotation.

Their entire top of the rotation is dealing with injuries and/or innings concerns. Woody ain’t coming back. One more serious injury and you’re potentially looking at starting Aaron Ashby every other playoff game again. 

[wibadgers23]

6 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I fundamentally disagree with the assessment that the Brewers have less of a need at the top of their rotation.

Their entire top of the rotation is dealing with injuries and/or innings concerns. Woody ain’t coming back. One more serious injury and you’re potentially looking at starting Aaron Ashby every other playoff game again. 

Completely agree. If I'm remembering correctly, I believe we had two bullpen games last year in the NLCS and started Jose Quintana in another. Do we really want to have to go through that again? I don't. 

[biedergb]

4 minutes ago, homer said:

I'll repeat what I've said before...I am not sure this is the year to cash in your chips. Miz is now on a pitch count, Harrison has arm troubles, there are holes in the pen, etc. I think making some moves around the margins again is fine unless you get someone in return who is controllable for more than the rest of the season.

Yes. I would agree with this sentiment.  I think the 2028-2030 window of Chourio, Miz, Turang (well 2028 at least), Made/Pena, Fischer/Burke, and some of Priester/Harrison/Henderson/Sproat with Drohan/Crow/Hardin/Letson as a core, all health permitting is the best window to mortgage the future.

with the unknown of the new CBA and how it affects team control, price of free agents I see a lot of teams probably sniffing but not trading much since even a guy with control through 2027 is not helpful if there is no 2027 season (or it’s abbreviated).

Plus - unless you are the Dodgers (who spend a lot yes, but also have a remarkably well run farm system), the rosters of controllable players are (ie bottom 10-15 payrolls) are mostly outperforming the top payrolls.  So the incentive is mostly to keep using this formula for now.  The problem is the Dodgers exist and are the biggest reason the brewers seem to have diminished odds of getting to the World Series but I don’t see one player who changes that, and to get 2 top end players means sacrificing the 2028-2030 window.  And I hate the “bites at the apple” concept, but as a long suffering fan, seeing a team remain competitive for a decade is awesome.  I want a World Series appearance (and victory) more than anything but agree this may not be “our year”.  There is no mvp like in 2018-2019, and Miz may be a cy young candidate now but his innings limitations will hold him back, and this is not like 2021 when there were 5 elite pitchers (Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta, Hader, Williams). That was the year to have trade and for 2 impact bats. 

[igor67]

Odds of any particular deal are always low. I read this as Arnold being: just because we are interested in bigger names it doesn't mean you get to pillage the system.

[Brian]

33 minutes ago, homer said:

I'll repeat what I've said before...I am not sure this is the year to cash in your chips. Miz is now on a pitch count, Harrison has arm troubles, there are holes in the pen, etc. I think making some moves around the margins again is fine unless you get someone in return who is controllable for more than the rest of the season.

But if Miz and Harrison are having arm issues wouldn't you want to persue another decent starting pitcher to relieve some of the workload? I expect a starting pitcher at the deadline. 

[homer]

36 minutes ago, Brian said:

But if Miz and Harrison are having arm issues wouldn't you want to persue another decent starting pitcher to relieve some of the workload? I expect a starting pitcher at the deadline. 

No because if Miz and Harrison aren't pitching then the Brewers don't have a shot at a World Series anyway. You would want a guy to supplement them not replace them.

[Brian]

3 hours ago, homer said:

No because if Miz and Harrison aren't pitching then the Brewers don't have a shot at a World Series anyway. You would want a guy to supplement them not replace them.

I did not say replace them, I said relieve some of the workload which to me is supplementing them.  Big difference and a SP that is maybe capable of middle inning relief if needed that can pitch more than 3 innings if going well would be great. 

[CA John]

With 2027 season at risk w new CBA, rentals look better.

Mason Miller has 3 years before FA, so he’s obviously an exception.

[Brewcrew82]

Let's be honest. The vast majority of prospects don't work out like we think they will (see below). An elite organization like the Brewers is not only able quickly replenish whatever is lost, but they're also able to evaluate their prospects better than everyone else and maximize value by selling high where appropriate. 

No way am I trading Made (unless the Royals suddenly put Bobby Witt Jr on the market). Everyone else, though, should be available for the right price. I don't subscribe to the "windows theory". Who knows how things will look in a few months, let alone a few years. What you do know for certain is you currently have a team that is tied for the best record in baseball and is in need of some reinforcements. You should do everything within reason to maximize that team's chances of winning a WS. Future must always be accounted for, but you can't lose sight of the present.

 

[biedergb]

5 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

The vast majority of prospects don't work out like we think they will (see below)

 

5 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

No way am I trading Made (unless the Royals suddenly put Bobby Witt Jr on the market

I think the bottom statement also helps explain the top.  I wonder if there were prospects ranks/grades for those traded.

 

6 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I don't subscribe to the "windows theory". Who knows how things will look in a few months, let alone a few years.

Yes, I know.  But there is somewhat of a window in how this team is constructed.  We have a few signed to longer term deals (Chourio, Pratt, Lara) and we have a lot of depth at multiple positions.  So to say the window of Chourio/mitchell/adams/Quero doesn’t work, but a 2-3 year window where most key players are under control or signed with many prospects reminds me of 2017 and there was a 2017-2020 “window” for that.

[torts]

[Anton B]

3 hours ago, Samurai Bucky said:

There you have it.  The Brewers can put the press clippings of the "best farm system" in place of where a World Series trophy could be.

Even with "selling" tier 2 prospects, the Brewers would most likely be near the top as far as being the "best farm system".  I don't want them to give up the farm, but c'mon...

I get it!  Even with future prospects you don't know how all of them will pan out.  I feel we have a good window why not capitalize on it.  Should we trade away the farm?  IMO no, but you need to bolster the back end (I don't trust McGill) possible bat ( love Yelli, but he may go into a slump at the wrong time), or a good starter that can eat some innings up.  I feel we are so close and holding on to your riches will not cut it.  Remember the CC trade?  Gave them LaPorta (top rated 1st basemen and didn't pan out).

[Jim French Stepstool]

29 minutes ago, Anton B said:

I get it!  Even with future prospects you don't know how all of them will pan out.  I feel we have a good window why not capitalize on it.  Should we trade away the farm?  IMO no, but you need to bolster the back end (I don't trust McGill) possible bat ( love Yelli, but he may go into a slump at the wrong time), or a good starter that can eat some innings up.  I feel we are so close and holding on to your riches will not cut it.  Remember the CC trade?  Gave them LaPorta (top rated 1st basemen and didn't pan out).

The Sabathia trade is a good example of just how tricky this stuff can be. The 'headliner' was LaPorta, who was so-so & never made a huge impact. Yet Cleveland wouldn't make the deal w/o the Brewers including Mike Brantley, who had a long & productive career yet at the time wasn't considered on the same plain as Laporta. Assessment & projection is such a huge thing. Also depth at a particular spot; that's what made me think some of the 1B-3B depth in the system might be dealt before the deadline.

[Brian]

26 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

The Sabathia trade is a good example of just how tricky this stuff can be. The 'headliner' was LaPorta, who was so-so & never made a huge impact. Yet Cleveland wouldn't make the deal w/o the Brewers including Mike Brantley, who had a long & productive career yet at the time wasn't considered on the same plain as Laporta. Assessment & projection is such a huge thing. Also depth at a particular spot; that's what made me think some of the 1B-3B depth in the system might be dealt before the deadline.

CC Sabathia thoroughly enjoyed his brief time with the Milwaukee Brewers, said one of the most fun and fulfilling periods of his career.