Continuous Winning with a Youth Movement

[CheezWizHed]

It has been interesting to me how the team has been on renovating the team under a youth movement and still consistently winning.  Yes, we are all waiting for a WS victory, but you have to admire the transformation without losing any steam in the standings. 

Just looking at our future core - anyone with more than 3 years tenure with the club (i.e. club control for 2027-2029). 

• C - Open.  Quero and Dinges aren't far off, but there is a lot of uncertainty here. 
• 1B - Open: More options with Adams, Bruke, or maybe Fisher, but still uncertainty. 
• 2B - Turang (5-6 WAR player)
• SS - Pratt (looking like a 3-4+ WAR player)
• 3B - Ortiz - not terribly exciting, but a 2-3 WAR player.  This is probably Made's future position
• LF - Chourio - 3+WAR. Likely the "+" kicks in as he matures.  I keep forgetting that he is only 22. 
• CF - Mitchell - 3-4 WAR player when healthy.  Technically only 2 years of control left. 
• RF - Lara - Not sure where to put him at this point.  Seemed easy to peg him as a 2-3 WAR player based on past results, but this year he looks more like a 4+ WAR (both minimal MLB and AAA stats)
• OF - Frelick 2-3 WAR as a starter.  Thought he might have one more gear, but really stepped backwards this year. 
• DH - Open: Yelich has a mutual option for 2029 that is unlikely to be accepted by the club. 
• SP - Miz (6+WAR): true TOR starter and annual Cy Young candidate. 
• SP: Harrison, Priester, Henderson, Sproat, Gasser, Drohan - Rather than list the rest individually... just admire the depth and quality of this group. That is 7 SPs deep with pitchers that are at least 5th SP level today.  Sproat's upside is impressive too if he can manage his control and endurance.  Not all will remain with the team due to options running out, but still. It is impressive when you have Sproat, Gasser and Drohan fighting for the 5th SP spot. 
• BP: Uribe, Patrick, Hall, Yoho, Ashby*, Koenig*, Anderson*
  • Ashby has club options up to 2029, but I tend to doubt they will take them
  • Koenig and Anderson might be questionable as they work through arbitration and become expensive.

That would be 20 of a 26-man roster potentially set for the next 3 years (assuming 2 SPs move to the BP and maxing out at 13 pitchers). 

Upgrade options:

• C: Contreras' leadership role with the team and Quero's arm issues make that the most concerning gap on the team.  
• 1B: There are several big stick options close to the majors. I'd bank on one of Adams, Burke, or Fisher (my favorite) to work out there. 
• 3B: Ortiz is probably the target to replace, but Made needs to play somewhere. Fisher isn't far behind either. 
• RF: With Mitchell's injury issues, moving Lara to CF and finding a bigger bat to play in RF would be good.
• BP: Uribe works at the closer.  Keep finding more arms like we always do. 
• DH: Hopefully we have enough quality depth to avoid a DH only player. 

But overall, that is an impressive group of young, controlled talent to build on. 

[adambr2]

It’s a really exciting time because it’s just been so long since I’ve seen this well rounded of a lineup. I think you could make a legit argument that Pratt, Turang, Lara, Mitchell, and Chourio all have 4 plus WAR upside. That’s over half the lineup. Some uncertainty about the future at 1B, 3B and C but it’s not like the existing options are performing terribly and none is going to keep the team from being a perennial contender for years to come. 

The real question will be what to do with Yelich. I think you do give him at least this season to see if there’s a last big run in the bat. 

If that doesn’t happen, I think you have to go into this offseason with the realization that better options have passed him by. It’s a difficult conversation, but being a contending club, you can’t justify two more seasons of tying up the DH position for him just based on tenure if there are better options. 

Fortunately for him, he’s only mid - not a disaster, so smart money is that they’re going to run it back with him at DH in 2027 and at least try one more year. 

But if he continues to fall off, it’s going to make for some difficult in-season decisions unless they can hide him with phantom IL stints for most of 2027.

[CheezWizHed]

Looks like I forgot Coleman Crowe at SP.  Eight SP deep. 

[Jopal78]

34 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

It’s a really exciting time because it’s just been so long since I’ve seen this well rounded of a lineup. I think you could make a legit argument that Pratt, Turang, Lara, Mitchell, and Chourio all have 4 plus WAR upside. That’s over half the lineup. Some uncertainty about the future at 1B, 3B and C but it’s not like the existing options are performing terribly and none is going to keep the team from being a perennial contender for years to come. 

The real question will be what to do with Yelich. I think you do give him at least this season to see if there’s a last big run in the bat. 

If that doesn’t happen, I think you have to go into this offseason with the realization that better options have passed him by. It’s a difficult conversation, but being a contending club, you can’t justify two more seasons of tying up the DH position for him just based on tenure if there are better options. 

Fortunately for him, he’s only mid - not a disaster, so smart money is that they’re going to run it back with him at DH in 2027 and at least try one more year. 

But if he continues to fall off, it’s going to make for some difficult in-season decisions unless they can hide him with phantom IL stints for most of 2027.

He has 10/5 rights and a $58.5M guarantee remaining so that pretty much tells you all you need to know for Yelich’s future with Milwaukee