Continuous Winning with a Youth Movement

[CheezWizHed]

It has been interesting to me how the team has been on renovating the team under a youth movement and still consistently winning.  Yes, we are all waiting for a WS victory, but you have to admire the transformation without losing any steam in the standings. 

Just looking at our future core - anyone with more than 3 years tenure with the club (i.e. club control for 2027-2029). 

• C - Open.  Quero and Dinges aren't far off, but there is a lot of uncertainty here. 
• 1B - Open: More options with Adams, Bruke, or maybe Fisher, but still uncertainty. 
• 2B - Turang (5-6 WAR player)
• SS - Pratt (looking like a 3-4+ WAR player)
• 3B - Ortiz - not terribly exciting, but a 2-3 WAR player.  This is probably Made's future position
• LF - Chourio - 3+WAR. Likely the "+" kicks in as he matures.  I keep forgetting that he is only 22. 
• CF - Mitchell - 3-4 WAR player when healthy.  Technically only 2 years of control left. 
• RF - Lara - Not sure where to put him at this point.  Seemed easy to peg him as a 2-3 WAR player based on past results, but this year he looks more like a 4+ WAR (both minimal MLB and AAA stats)
• OF - Frelick 2-3 WAR as a starter.  Thought he might have one more gear, but really stepped backwards this year. 
• DH - Open: Yelich has a mutual option for 2029 that is unlikely to be accepted by the club. 
• SP - Miz (6+WAR): true TOR starter and annual Cy Young candidate. 
• SP: Harrison, Priester, Henderson, Sproat, Gasser, Drohan - Rather than list the rest individually... just admire the depth and quality of this group. That is 7 SPs deep with pitchers that are at least 5th SP level today.  Sproat's upside is impressive too if he can manage his control and endurance.  Not all will remain with the team due to options running out, but still. It is impressive when you have Sproat, Gasser and Drohan fighting for the 5th SP spot. 
• BP: Uribe, Patrick, Hall, Yoho, Ashby*, Koenig*, Anderson*
  • Ashby has club options up to 2029, but I tend to doubt they will take them
  • Koenig and Anderson might be questionable as they work through arbitration and become expensive.

That would be 20 of a 26-man roster potentially set for the next 3 years (assuming 2 SPs move to the BP and maxing out at 13 pitchers). 

Upgrade options:

• C: Contreras' leadership role with the team and Quero's arm issues make that the most concerning gap on the team.  
• 1B: There are several big stick options close to the majors. I'd bank on one of Adams, Burke, or Fisher (my favorite) to work out there. 
• 3B: Ortiz is probably the target to replace, but Made needs to play somewhere. Fisher isn't far behind either. 
• RF: With Mitchell's injury issues, moving Lara to CF and finding a bigger bat to play in RF would be good.
• BP: Uribe works at the closer.  Keep finding more arms like we always do. 
• DH: Hopefully we have enough quality depth to avoid a DH only player. 

But overall, that is an impressive group of young, controlled talent to build on. 

[adambr2]

It’s a really exciting time because it’s just been so long since I’ve seen this well rounded of a lineup. I think you could make a legit argument that Pratt, Turang, Lara, Mitchell, and Chourio all have 4 plus WAR upside. That’s over half the lineup. Some uncertainty about the future at 1B, 3B and C but it’s not like the existing options are performing terribly and none is going to keep the team from being a perennial contender for years to come. 

The real question will be what to do with Yelich. I think you do give him at least this season to see if there’s a last big run in the bat. 

If that doesn’t happen, I think you have to go into this offseason with the realization that better options have passed him by. It’s a difficult conversation, but being a contending club, you can’t justify two more seasons of tying up the DH position for him just based on tenure if there are better options. 

Fortunately for him, he’s only mid - not a disaster, so smart money is that they’re going to run it back with him at DH in 2027 and at least try one more year. 

But if he continues to fall off, it’s going to make for some difficult in-season decisions unless they can hide him with phantom IL stints for most of 2027.

[CheezWizHed]

Looks like I forgot Coleman Crowe at SP.  Eight SP deep. 

[Jopal78]

34 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

It’s a really exciting time because it’s just been so long since I’ve seen this well rounded of a lineup. I think you could make a legit argument that Pratt, Turang, Lara, Mitchell, and Chourio all have 4 plus WAR upside. That’s over half the lineup. Some uncertainty about the future at 1B, 3B and C but it’s not like the existing options are performing terribly and none is going to keep the team from being a perennial contender for years to come. 

The real question will be what to do with Yelich. I think you do give him at least this season to see if there’s a last big run in the bat. 

If that doesn’t happen, I think you have to go into this offseason with the realization that better options have passed him by. It’s a difficult conversation, but being a contending club, you can’t justify two more seasons of tying up the DH position for him just based on tenure if there are better options. 

Fortunately for him, he’s only mid - not a disaster, so smart money is that they’re going to run it back with him at DH in 2027 and at least try one more year. 

But if he continues to fall off, it’s going to make for some difficult in-season decisions unless they can hide him with phantom IL stints for most of 2027.

He has 10/5 rights and a $58.5M guarantee remaining so that pretty much tells you all you need to know for Yelich’s future with Milwaukee

[CheezWizHed]

29 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

He has 10/5 rights and a $58.5M guarantee remaining so that pretty much tells you all you need to know for Yelich’s future with Milwaukee

The $58.5M is going to be paid no matter what.  It is a sunk cost.  But that doesn't mean we need to keep giving him ABs.  We can ask him to retire with his golden parachute.  

I don't think we are there yet, and I agree with @adambr2 that he will get another shot next year.  But if he can't do better than 750 OPS as the DH, I'd prefer to look for an upgrade. 

[gregmag]

You’re right, and I think a few more names belong in the conversation, if we limit it to guys at AA and AAA (of course this all may require some revising after the deadline):

C: Wood, at least as a backup; Maybe Miller too

lf: Adamczewski

cf: Ragsdale

wild card: Jett - could conceivably end up at 2b, 3b, or cf

sp: Hardin

[dlk9s]

What I have found fascinating about this season is that the Brewers have called up two position players to either be full-time starters (Pratt) or frequent starters (Lara) and just keep winning. It's usually the teams whose seasons are shot that bring up guys to see what they have.

[Jopal78]

13 minutes ago, CheezWizHed said:

The $58.5M is going to be paid no matter what.  It is a sunk cost.  But that doesn't mean we need to keep giving him ABs.  We can ask him to retire with his golden parachute.  

I don't think we are there yet, and I agree with @adambr2 that he will get another shot next year.  But if he can't do better than 750 OPS as the DH, I'd prefer to look for an upgrade. 

It’s a sunk cost sure. But the chance that they pay Yelich almost $60 million to stay home and not play for them is zero.

The chance they pay him even $10 million to stay home and not play for the Brewers is realistically next to zero. He would need a Lorenzo Cain like collapse (435 OPS) first. And by the time the money owed him is down to $10 million, it’s probably August of 2028 anyways.

I am also 100% confident that Yelich will show up to collect every penny of that money rather than retire and take a haircut on what he’s owed even if it means getting splinters in his ass from the bench

[CheezWizHed]

11 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

It’s a sunk cost sure. But the chance that they pay Yelich almost $60 million to stay home and not play for them is zero.

The chance they pay him even $10 million to stay home and not play for the Brewers is realistically next to zero. He would need a Lorenzo Cain like collapse (435 OPS) first. And by the time the money owed him is down to $10 million, it’s probably August of 2028 anyways.

I am also 100% confident that Yelich will show up to collect every penny of that money rather than retire and take a haircut on what he’s owed even if it means getting splinters in his ass from the bench

"Retire" in this case is a euphemism for "DFA with grace."  

It probably won't happen until mid 2027 or more likely 2028 (with $22M cash left).  No, I don't assume Yelich will give anything back.  Maybe they are able to defer some money?  Maybe they just swallow it.  Maybe they let him play it out.  

I'm just saying that letting him go if he can't deliver 750 OPS would be one way to improve the team.  Not saying it is likely. 

[CheezWizHed]

20 minutes ago, gregmag said:

You’re right, and I think a few more names belong in the conversation, if we limit it to guys at AA and AAA (of course this all may require some revising after the deadline):

C: Wood, at least as a backup; Maybe Miller too

lf: Adamczewski

cf: Ragsdale

wild card: Jett - could conceivably end up at 2b, 3b, or cf

sp: Hardin

Yeah, I almost included Adamczwwdlkjski if I could just spell his name... 

But seriously, I didn't want to get too deep into the minors... I was trying to stick with people that are succeeding at the MLB level or very likely players (Made).  I cheated at 1B a little by using 3 options at 1B that are close to playing the MLB level... you'd think at least one will make it. 

[adambr2]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

It’s a sunk cost sure. But the chance that they pay Yelich almost $60 million to stay home and not play for them is zero.

The chance they pay him even $10 million to stay home and not play for the Brewers is realistically next to zero. He would need a Lorenzo Cain like collapse (435 OPS) first. And by the time the money owed him is down to $10 million, it’s probably August of 2028 anyways.

I am also 100% confident that Yelich will show up to collect every penny of that money rather than retire and take a haircut on what he’s owed even if it means getting splinters in his ass from the bench

There have been numerous examples in MLB of players who completely cratered that the team moved on from. With a career like Yelich, it typically isn't the path of an embarrassing DFA but rather “you’re going to ‘retire’ with grace and we’re going to pay you quietly.” The Alex Rodriguez route, basically.

Yeah, it’s true that there aren’t a lot of such Brewers examples (maybe Jeff Suppan is the closest), but what you’re describing is sunk cost fallacy and Matt Arnold is smart enough to understand it. 

As we all pretty much agree, we aren’t there yet. He’s still productive enough to roster and play — for now. 

However, if he does indeed crater to an A-Rod -1.2 WAR or a Lorenzo Cain .465 OPS, and the Brewers have no realistic reason to think he’s going to recover, I guarantee they’ll quietly discuss a graceful way out with him rather than have him burn a bench spot on the roster over far better options and put themselves at a competitive disadvantage.