Assessing the offense

[trwi7]

43 minutes ago, baseball101 said:

You’re literally only describing the Dodgers pitching staff. They are full of aces. No other team can match that talent. Every team is an underdog against the Dodgers in the postseason with that roster.

We could literally be facing Zack Wheeler and Christopher Sanchez in the playoffs before we would ever even get to the Dodgers.

[owbc]

32 minutes ago, Turning2 said:

In a nutshell... yep. Unfortunately, people get offended when that is pointed out because they can't see the forest (the big picture reality) for the (statistical) trees.  

Because there’s no actual proof that it has ever cost the Brewers a playoff series amid the myriad other factors that have caused us to lose postseason games.

If only we had more power than surely the Jose Quintana vs Shohei Ohtani pitching matchup would have turned out in our favor!

Not to mention the ALCS last year where the power hitting Mariners were outdone by the more balanced Toronto offense. 

[TURBO]

1 hour ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I would suggest that you cool it with the condescension. Yes, it is obvious that they can't and don't tell the whole story, but of all major sports out there, baseball is the one where stats tell the biggest part of that story.

Are you a moderator?

Just checking, if not, your condescension and telling others how to post isn't warranted.

[Turning2]

2 hours ago, liveforoctober said:

So a consistent offense is an offense better than the Dodgers' offense is what we have landed on as your definition.

Your stance has recency bias all over it unfortunately. We beat Sanchez this year. We knocked Skubal out with a lead. Why weren't you upset at our consistency then?

We haven't landed on anything as a baseline definition. Using LA as the standard is a reasonable comparison, but it also is not the end all be all. I never said it was. 

I'll ask you the same question - If the Brewers had a pitching staff equal to the Dodgers in every metric, stat etc - do you believe that our offense could win the WS by their offensive capability alone. This assumes that pitching and defense is equal). If great pitching beats great hitting, but both teams have equal pitching - how confident are you that our bats would beat their bats?

 

[igor67]

Without having a great way to model your hypothetical I'd say it's still pretty close to the Brewers chances of winning the series right now about 40% maybe 45%. Injuries between now and the playoff series can easily affect the odds as much as any single bat they might find.

[Turning2]

1 hour ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I would suggest that you cool it with the condescension. Yes, it is obvious that they can't and don't tell the whole story, but of all major sports out there, baseball is the one where stats tell the biggest part of that story.

I'm not condescending anyone by my understanding of that term. If others interpret it that way, that is beyond my control. That is not my intent. The pushback, I suspect, is driven from a version of cognitive dissonance - essentially - being confronted with what a person doesn't want to have to acknowledge as true the polite term is "whistling past the graveyard". 

So, the obvious thing I must question is .... what stats support ... "but of all major sports out there, baseball is the one where stats tell the biggest part of that story". Do you recognize the irony? Most fans seem to be content relying on stats / metrics to tell the story... until the story can't be supported by stats / metrics. We can't claim "numbers" if we can't support with "numbers". That's why I don't claim "numbers" generally speaking.

Stats / metrics / measurements are an indicative tool, but they should never be wholly relied upon as many are want to do. 

LOL... all I'm saying is .... they need more consistent offense, one that instills fans with confidence in the clutch / high pressure scenarios. Winning a ton of games, scoring a ton of runs, flattering stat rankings mean NOTHING if they can't do it when it counts the most. That shouldn't be an unpopular, contentious opinion. 

 

[BruisedCrew]

My concern with the Brewers offense is not that it’s been inconsistent, but that for large portions of the season it has been very mediocre.

For the full season to date the Brewers are 5th in the NL at 5.06 RPG after leading the league at some points during the season. But they are not too far behind the Cubs (5.19), Pirates (5.17), and Dodgers (5.15). The Nationals are on top at 5.47.

But, focusing on games after June 10 (about a quarter of the season) the Brewers offense has been significantly less impressive. During this most recent stretch of games, the Cubs have the best record at 28-13 followed  by the Dodgers at 25-15 and the Brewers at 26-16 (2.5 games back).

in those 42 games the Brewers have scored 4.62 RPG, 9th best in the NL and WAY behind the Cubs sizzling 6.24.

As has been the case for most of the season, the Brewers have been maintaining their winning pace mainly through run prevention. Since June 10 the Brewers runs allowed per game of 3,93 is the second lowest in the NL. They are behind only (are you sitting down for this?) the Cubs at 3.78 RAPG..

Anyone who has watched the Brewers closely for the last six weeks can see that the offense hasn’t been clicking, with several key players going through varying degrees of slumps.