Assessing the offense

[trwi7]

43 minutes ago, baseball101 said:

You’re literally only describing the Dodgers pitching staff. They are full of aces. No other team can match that talent. Every team is an underdog against the Dodgers in the postseason with that roster.

We could literally be facing Zack Wheeler and Christopher Sanchez in the playoffs before we would ever even get to the Dodgers.

[owbc]

32 minutes ago, Turning2 said:

In a nutshell... yep. Unfortunately, people get offended when that is pointed out because they can't see the forest (the big picture reality) for the (statistical) trees.  

Because there’s no actual proof that it has ever cost the Brewers a playoff series amid the myriad other factors that have caused us to lose postseason games.

If only we had more power than surely the Jose Quintana vs Shohei Ohtani pitching matchup would have turned out in our favor!

Not to mention the ALCS last year where the power hitting Mariners were outdone by the more balanced Toronto offense. 

[TURBO]

1 hour ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I would suggest that you cool it with the condescension. Yes, it is obvious that they can't and don't tell the whole story, but of all major sports out there, baseball is the one where stats tell the biggest part of that story.

Are you a moderator?

Just checking, if not, your condescension and telling others how to post isn't warranted.

[Turning2]

2 hours ago, liveforoctober said:

So a consistent offense is an offense better than the Dodgers' offense is what we have landed on as your definition.

Your stance has recency bias all over it unfortunately. We beat Sanchez this year. We knocked Skubal out with a lead. Why weren't you upset at our consistency then?

We haven't landed on anything as a baseline definition. Using LA as the standard is a reasonable comparison, but it also is not the end all be all. I never said it was. 

I'll ask you the same question - If the Brewers had a pitching staff equal to the Dodgers in every metric, stat etc - do you believe that our offense could win the WS by their offensive capability alone. This assumes that pitching and defense is equal). If great pitching beats great hitting, but both teams have equal pitching - how confident are you that our bats would beat their bats?

 

[igor67]

Without having a great way to model your hypothetical I'd say it's still pretty close to the Brewers chances of winning the series right now about 40% maybe 45%. Injuries between now and the playoff series can easily affect the odds as much as any single bat they might find.

[Turning2]

3 hours ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

I would suggest that you cool it with the condescension. Yes, it is obvious that they can't and don't tell the whole story, but of all major sports out there, baseball is the one where stats tell the biggest part of that story.

I'm not condescending anyone by my understanding of that term. If others interpret it that way, that is beyond my control. That is not my intent. The pushback, I suspect, is driven from a version of cognitive dissonance - essentially - being confronted with what a person doesn't want to have to acknowledge as true. The polite term is "whistling past the graveyard". 

So, the obvious thing I must question is .... what stats support ... "but of all major sports out there, baseball is the one where stats tell the biggest part of that story". Do you recognize the irony? Most fans seem to be content relying on stats / metrics to tell the story... until the story can't be supported by stats / metrics. We can't claim "numbers" if we can't support with "numbers". That's why I don't claim "numbers" generally speaking.

Stats / metrics / measurements are an indicative tool, but they should never be wholly relied upon as many are want to do. 

LOL... all I'm saying is .... they need more consistent offense, one that instills fans with confidence in the clutch / high pressure scenarios. Winning a ton of games, scoring a ton of runs, flattering stat rankings mean NOTHING if they can't do it when it counts the most. That shouldn't be an unpopular, contentious opinion. 

 

[BruisedCrew]

My concern with the Brewers offense is not that it’s been inconsistent, but that for large portions of the season it has been very mediocre.

For the full season to date the Brewers are 5th in the NL at 5.06 RPG after leading the league at some points during the season. But they are not too far behind the Cubs (5.19), Pirates (5.17), and Dodgers (5.15). The Nationals are on top at 5.47.

But, focusing on games after June 10 (about a quarter of the season) the Brewers offense has been significantly less impressive. During this most recent stretch of games, the Cubs have the best record at 28-13 followed  by the Dodgers at 25-15 and the Brewers at 26-16 (2.5 games back).

in those 42 games the Brewers have scored 4.62 RPG, 9th best in the NL and WAY behind the Cubs sizzling 6.24.

As has been the case for most of the season, the Brewers have been maintaining their winning pace mainly through run prevention. Since June 10 the Brewers runs allowed per game of 3,93 is the second lowest in the NL. They are behind only (are you sitting down for this?) the Cubs at 3.78 RAPG..

Anyone who has watched the Brewers closely for the last six weeks can see that the offense hasn’t been clicking, with several key players going through varying degrees of slumps.

 

[Jim French Stepstool]

7 hours ago, Turning2 said:

 It was fairly easy to see early on that they weren't winning the game yesterday. 

Can you honestly say that there weren't any games this year where you felt that way & they won?

The offense may or not be added to in the next 120 hours (compared to adding to the pitching depth, I don't think it is a priority). But I can't help but feel that many of the same laments from fans re the offense would be voiced if they were a fan of some other team that they believe is better offensively, if they watched THAT team day in & day out, through the good, bad, hot, cold, etc.

[baseball101]

1 hour ago, Turning2 said:

I'm not condescending anyone by my understanding of that term. If others interpret it that way, that is beyond my control. That is not my intent. The pushback, I suspect, is driven from a version of cognitive dissonance - essentially - being confronted with what a person doesn't want to have to acknowledge as true the polite term is "whistling past the graveyard". 

So, the obvious thing I must question is .... what stats support ... "but of all major sports out there, baseball is the one where stats tell the biggest part of that story". Do you recognize the irony? Most fans seem to be content relying on stats / metrics to tell the story... until the story can't be supported by stats / metrics. We can't claim "numbers" if we can't support with "numbers". That's why I don't claim "numbers" generally speaking.

Stats / metrics / measurements are an indicative tool, but they should never be wholly relied upon as many are want to do. 

LOL... all I'm saying is .... they need more consistent offense, one that instills fans with confidence in the clutch / high pressure scenarios. Winning a ton of games, scoring a ton of runs, flattering stat rankings mean NOTHING if they can't do it when it counts the most. That shouldn't be an unpopular, contentious opinion. 

 

More consistent and more clutch? Brewers have the 3rd highest OPS with runners in scoring position. The Brewers are 5th in runs scored from 7th inning on. It’s pretty clear that you have no reasonable definition for consistent or clutch or what team you think has these factors. You basically want them to hit more home runs. The Brewers do other things to offset the lack of power. I agree. Let’s go find more 850-900 OPS players that hit 25-35 home runs, play great defense, run the bases well, and is available for the Brewers. And is also clutch. Fire away with your ideas!

[Playing Catch]

1 hour ago, Turning2 said:

I'm not condescending anyone by my understanding of that term. If others interpret it that way, that is beyond my control. That is not my intent. The pushback, I suspect, is driven from a version of cognitive dissonance - essentially - being confronted with what a person doesn't want to have to acknowledge as true the polite term is "whistling past the graveyard". 

So, the obvious thing I must question is .... what stats support ... "but of all major sports out there, baseball is the one where stats tell the biggest part of that story". Do you recognize the irony? Most fans seem to be content relying on stats / metrics to tell the story... until the story can't be supported by stats / metrics. We can't claim "numbers" if we can't support with "numbers". That's why I don't claim "numbers" generally speaking.

Stats / metrics / measurements are an indicative tool, but they should never be wholly relied upon as many are want to do. 

LOL... all I'm saying is .... they need more consistent offense, one that instills fans with confidence in the clutch / high pressure scenarios. Winning a ton of games, scoring a ton of runs, flattering stat rankings mean NOTHING if they can't do it when it counts the most. That shouldn't be an unpopular, contentious opinion. 

 

I won't use any stats to back my opinion...

My opinion is, is that despite what my eyes tell me when I look at the standings (is that a stat?), the Brewers offense could use some more thump. Particularly if they are trying to outhomer the '27 Yankees... err, '26 Dodgers.

So I guess I we agree?

But as others have mentioned, in order to improve the power, you only offer solutions by subtraction (getting rid of the losers populating roster spots on the 2nd best team in the world). As others have repeatedly mentioned in threads such as this, you can't just pull more power out of the ether. AND you can't just get power without sacrificing something else, unless you plan to acquire... whom?

It seems like you really just want the statnerds to acknowledge that they feel something when Ortiz strikes out or Hamilton smashes one all the way to the warning track. Yah, man... we do. We do have feelings and shout at the TV, and complain over breakfast the next morning to our spouses about last night's latest in-game decision disaster. Then, we run to the internet and gather up every piece of data we can find to try and improve the Brewers and come back here to tell everyone that guess what? Baseball is hard. It's hard to beat the best team in perhaps our lifetimes. It's hard to acquire more power in this league in 2026. It's hard to win back-to-back "Org of the Year" awards, it's hard living with the memories of what-could-have-been.

Yeah, maybe you are right. Maybe it's time to hang up the season. But even in those darkest moments of despair, you know what statnerds look to? Their faith that baseball is a funny game. And that it ain't over till it's over. That as long as the prediction markets say the Dodgers chance of victory is ONLY 99%, that there's still a chance.

[wiguy94]

35 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Can you honestly say that there weren't any games this year where you felt that way & they won?

The offense may or not be added to in the next 120 hours (compared to adding to the pitching depth, I don't think it is a priority). But I can't help but feel that many of the same laments from fans re the offense would be voiced if they were a fan of some other team that they believe is better offensively, if they watched THAT team day in & day out, through the good, bad, hot, cold, etc.

It was 3-2 Giants in the 6th inning yesterday with all of our A-pen lined up. I think it's hard to take anyone seriously who is saying that game never felt winnable. 

[LouisEly]

Last year in the regular season, the Brewers hit 1 HR every 37.5 PAs.

Against the Cubs in the NLDS, the Brewers hit 1 HR every 25.4 PAs.

(That 1 HR every 25.4 PAs was exactly the same rate as the Dodgers in the 2025 regular season.)

The Brewers had a significantly higher HR rate in the playoffs versus the Cubs than in the regular season.  If you want to factor in the Dodgers series, the Brewers hit 1 HR every 38.5 PAs, or just slightly less than the regular season.  

The Brewers HR rate in the playoffs declined by 2.7%.  The Dodgers HR rate in the regular season was 1 HR every 25.4 PAs.  Their HR rate in the playoffs was 1 every 31.3 PAs.  Their HR rate declined by 23%.

So, the notion that the Brewers don't hit enough HRs to win in the playoffs isn't supported by the data.  That leaves only one of two conclusions:

1. It was specific to the Dodgers pitching staff
2. It is just the randomness of baseball in a 4-game series

 

[Turning2]

19 minutes ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

Can you honestly say that there weren't any games this year where you felt that way & they won?

The offense may or not be added to in the next 120 hours (compared to adding to the pitching depth, I don't think it is a priority). But I can't help but feel that many of the same laments from fans re the offense would be voiced if they were a fan of some other team that they believe is better offensively, if they watched THAT team day in & day out, through the good, bad, hot, cold, etc.

Nope. They occasionally are able to show some grit and steal a win from the jaws of defeat, sure. Who were they playing, who was pitching against them... that's another evaluation however. 

Can you honestly say you believe this offense has shown enough ability to overcome the odds, adversity, superior pitching etc to ... do it? On a scale of 1-10, I'm about a 6 in confidence that the bats don't go cold. It's a monkey see, monkey do domino effect offense. - everybody hot, or everybody cold (generally speaking). And the track record is they go cold come important time (playoffs). 

I love the team. I love the entertainment value (although I waste too much time after work on the game rather than homestead tasks because they're too good not to watch 😁). I'm driving many hours and spending lots of money next week to take my family to our "once a year" game splurge. But I'm just calling a spade a spade. 

2 hours ago, TURBO said:

Are you a moderator?

Just checking, if not, your condescension and telling others how to post isn't warranted.

 

Thank you for the support. We may not always agree, but I appreciate that you recognize I'm not being intentionally malicious, just providing a counter perspective. A mature, mutually respectful exchange of differing views is healthy in any circle of discussion.  Pretty much what the founders had in mind in constructing the Constitution. They had a mutual interest in the well being of the new nation, We here have a mutual interest in the well being of the Brewers. 

[Turning2]

1 hour ago, igor67 said:

Without having a great way to model your hypothetical I'd say it's still pretty close to the Brewers chances of winning the series right now about 40% maybe 45%. Injuries between now and the playoff series can easily affect the odds as much as any single bat they might find.

Agreed. They are further away than just a single bat upgrade. Potential injuries can never be factored of course. Truly... nothing can be factored. It's all speculation based upon past performance. We can cling to hoping for "luck" though, and I do. I still want our guys to man up against LA (or whoever) and let the best baseball players win..... meanwhile exposing how insulting the tilted playing field is. 

[Turning2]

1 hour ago, BruisedCrew said:

As has been the case for most of the season, the Brewers have been maintaining their winning pace mainly through run prevention. Since June 10 the Brewers runs allowed per game of 3,93 is the second lowest in the NL. They are behind only (are you sitting down for this?) the Cubs at 3.78 RAPG..

Anyone who has watched the Brewers closely for the last six weeks can see that the offense hasn’t been clicking, with several key players going through varying degrees of slumps.

 

Your entire post is an astute, intellectually honest observation combining data plus.... well, what actually is/has been taking place.

As a former glove and arm first but bat OK SS,... I LOVE their run prevention. I adore Ortiz and Turang's glove work. I can also recognize that the team needs more offense collectively from one of those positions. I would trade less defense for more above average pop at a pop position (3B). 

[Playing Catch]

6 minutes ago, Turning2 said:

I would trade less defense for more above average pop at a pop position (3B). 

Third Basemen ranked by ISO (a statistic that only rewards XBH).

Pick one.

[Turning2]

53 minutes ago, baseball101 said:

More consistent and more clutch? Brewers have the 3rd highest OPS with runners in scoring position. The Brewers are 5th in runs scored from 7th inning on. It’s pretty clear that you have no reasonable definition for consistent or clutch or what team you think has these factors. You basically want them to hit more home runs. The Brewers do other things to offset the lack of power. I agree. Let’s go find more 850-900 OPS players that hit 25-35 home runs, play great defense, run the bases well, and is available for the Brewers. And is also clutch. Fire away with your ideas!

You are misconstruing my original posts and follow ups. The Brewers do indeed do things to offset the lack of power and are largely successful in the regular season because of it. It doesn't get them past the ultimate finish line, however. 

My first post implied that they won't win a championship without upgrading the offensive output from DH, 3B and the OF without a whole lot of serendipity. People vomit out numbers, but they are just numbers. Isolate those numbers to the offensive production in the playoffs of the recent past. Conveniently, nobody does that. Every MIL roster from year to year is different, there is still a pattern that can be recognized from an organizational perspective. I don't blame the current guys on the roster.