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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Mostly conjecture, but it seems to me like the Brewers either don't care about guys being on the short side, or are maybe even seeking them out somewhat looking through the system. Might be thinking with the incoming automated strike zone that shorter players will benefit by having smaller zones to cover. On the recent FanGraphs list there is Frelick (5'10"), Brown Jr. (5' 11"), Quero (5' 11"), Lara (5'9"), Moore (5'9"), Areinamo (5'10"), Perkins (5'11"), C. Rodriguez (5'10"), Wood (5'10"), Castillo (5'11"), and Hedbert (5'11") all listed under six feet. Eleven of the 23 position players on the list. If you throw in Warren & Metzinger both listed at 6'0" that flips it to over half at 13 of 23.
  2. sveumrules
    Threw in 2021 Peralta for good measure too... 2020 Burnes: 5-4 Woody: 6-7 Others: 18-20 2021 Burnes: 19-9 Woody: 16-14 Peralta: 18-9 Others: 42-35 2022 Burnes: 20-13 Woody: 19-8 Others: 47-55 Obviously 2020 was a small, weird sample, but normally competitive teams end up around the W% range of 2021 Burnes/Peralta or 2022 Burnes/Woody when pitchers of that calibre take the mound. 2021 Woody was a victim of poor run support, at only 3.8 R/GS. In 2022 he clocked in at a team best 5.0 R/GS. Maybe he took the whole offense to Turks & Caicos in the offseason or something, I dunno.
  3. sveumrules
    Cots has it a lil over $115M, Roster Resource says $118M. Those both include a placeholder estimate for Burnes. Spotrac says $92M, but that doesn’t include Burnes or any pre-Arby guys yet.
  4. sveumrules
    Which free agents do you believe would have been wise signings for the Brewers this offseason?
  5. sveumrules
    Both were fast CF, but Robles isn’t really a good comp because he never hit for the kind of power or exit velocities that Chourio has already posted. Nomar Mazara was never a consensus top 10 guy and was always a corner OF. He put up a 130 wRC+ in A ball as a 19 year old. Chourio put up a 160 wRC+ in A ball as an 18 year old. Those are two completely different calibre of prospects.
  6. sveumrules
    In 2011 the Brewers OD payroll of $84M ranked 17th. They won 96 games. They followed that up with a $98M OD payroll ranking 13th (highest ever under Mark A) and won 83 games. In 2018 the Brewers OD payroll of $99M ranked 26th. They won 96 games. They followed that up with a $123M OD payroll ranking 17th and won 89 games. In 2021 the Brewers OD payroll of $99M ranked 19th. They won 95 games. They followed that up with a $132M OD payroll, a big increase but not enough to get out of 19th place, and won 86 games. That’s three recent-ish examples where increased spending didn’t result in increased winning. I’d say sometimes spending equals winning and sometimes it doesn’t. Being able to spend more can be helpful if done intelligently, but it doesn’t guarantee anything either.
  7. sveumrules
    Give me Josh Gibson. I’d buy season tickets for that. I’d also be tempted to go with one of those crazy old reliever seasons like 1960 Lindy McDaniel (65 G | 116 IP | 195 ERA+) or 1964 Dick Radatz (79 G | 157 IP | 170 ERA+) or 1983 Quiz (69 G | 139 IP | 210 ERA+) to give CC a lockdown bullpen weapon. 1884 Old Hoss Radborn would really take a burden off the pitching staff with 73 GS | 73 CG | 205 ERA+.
  8. sveumrules
    Bush is a great example of how much the game has changed in a relatively short time. Inning eating #4/5 starters just aren’t really even a thing anymore. In 2006 he was one of 45 pitchers with at least 200 IP. Nine of those 45 had an ERA worse than league average, including Doug Davis. Bush was one of another 11 who had an ERA- between 99 and 94, so just a lil better than average. Hardly anyone pitches 200 IP anymore to begin with. Only eight in 2022 with the worst ERA- belonging to Gerritt Cole at 91. Only 45 pitchers even threw enough IP (162) in 2022 to qualify vs 84 qualifiers in 2006.
  9. sveumrules
    Reds list up over at FanGraphs today. Here's a quick overview of their system versus ours by number of players in each of the different Future Value rankings... 60 FV = CIN (1) to MIL (1) 50 FV = CIN (4) to MIL (3) 45+ FV = CIN (1) to MIL (0) 45 FV = CIN (4) to MIL (6) 40+ FV = CIN (8) to MIL (6) The Reds last full season playoff appearance was in 2013. From 2014-22, only the Tigers and Marlins have won fewer games. The 2023 season will mark a decade of nearly unrivaled misery for Reds fans. & what do they have to show for it? One extra 50 FV prospect and one extra 45+ FV prospect. They did spend more than the Brewers in free agency though.
  10. sveumrules
    Yeah, even Keith Hernandez with +117 Total Zone Runs (most ever for a 1B) only has a 1.3 career dWAR because playing over 17,000 innings at 1B has a -103 positional adjustment. You pretty much have to be putting up +10 fielding runs annually as a 1B to break even in dWAR. Same thing applies to a lesser extent to LF/RF which also have sizeable negative positional adjustments.
  11. sveumrules
    dWAR includes positional adjustment, -9 runs for Coop in 1979. Even the best fielding 1B often end up with negative dWAR due to that positional adjustment. From 1977-82 Total Zone credits Coop with +18 runs with the glove, but his fielding fell off just like his bat at the end of his career with -10 runs from 1983-87.
  12. sveumrules
    01 Coop 78-83: 3645 PA | 142 OPS+ | +13 BSR | +7 FLD | 27.3 WAR (has the longevity and the best peak) 02 Scott 72-76: 3320 PA | 131 OPS+ | -11 BSR | +42 FLD | 22.6 WAR (massive edge in FLD/BSR [+110 total runs] worth more than the 20 points of OPS+) 03 Prince 07-11: 3500 PA | 151 OPS+ | -25 BSR | -54 FLD | 17.5 WAR (best hitter of the bunch, worst base runner and fielder by a considerable margin. #1 DH) 04 Richie 00-03: 2288 PA | 133 OPS+ | -13 BSR | -11 FLD | 11.3 WAR (best hair, but longevity doesn't match up) 05 Jaha 92-97: 3285 PA | 113 OPS+ | -2 BSR | -7 FLD | 8.7 WAR HM to Seitzer [109 OPS+ | 10.5 WAR] but he played more 3B [176 G] than 1B [145 G] Granted it was only 131 games spread over three seasons, but Molitor's splits as a 1B are pretty crazy too & probably good enough for the #5 spot on the list... 1990 (season: 807 OPS | 125 OPS+) 1B: 308/369/493 (862 OPS) ~140 OPS+ 2B: 287/338/466 (804 OPS) 1991 (season: 888 OPS | 147 OPS+) 1B: 333/420/524 (944 OPS) ~165 OPS+ DH: 321/391/475 (865 OPS) 1992 (season: 851 OPS | 140 OPS+) 1B: 371/419/541 (960 OPS) ~165 OPS+ DH: 298/378/426 (804 OPS) Molitor put up a total of 13.3 WAR from 1990-92 with a third of his games at 1B, so that is a 4.5 WAR baseline. Throw in how much better he hit as a 1B over that time frame and you're probably talking about something like 6 WAR in those 131 G / 596 PA at 1B.
  13. sveumrules
    dWAR includes positional adjustment so both are dragged down by playing 1B. Cooper played more innings so he gets a -88 positional adjustment versus only a -54 for Prince. Looking at their actual glove work, Cooper graded out at +8 fielding runs with Milwaukee, Fielder graded out at -76 fielding runs.
  14. sveumrules
    Not sure if there is a comprehensive list somewhere, but MLBTR mentions that the Yankees, Mets, Padres, Guardians and Twins are all out on Bauer.
  15. sveumrules
    Singleton peaked in the prospect rankings at #25 following his age 20 season as a hit only 1B. Tatis Jr peaked at #2 following his age 19 season as a five tool SS. Those are two way different calibres of prospects.
  16. sveumrules
    1. Burnes (In conversation for best SP in baseball) 2. Woodruff (Top 10-ish SP in baseball) 3. Chourio (Consensus Top 10 prospect as a teenager) 4. Peralta (Extension helps, injuries hurt) 5. Adames (Top 10-ish SS in baseball) 6. Williams (Top 5-ish reliever in MLB) 7. Contreras (young All Star Catcher) 8. Ashby (Extension & stuff helps, results not quite there yet) 9. Urias (Solid MLB IF + team control) 10. Frelick (Best non-Chourio prospect) HM: Wiemer, Mitchell, Taylor, Turang, Quero Dishonorable Mention: Yelich
  17. sveumrules
    Pretty much every non-elite reliever is a journeyman. It's the nature of the gig. Payamps is one of only 94 relievers to have thrown at least 100 IP over the last two seasons, so he has been getting more consistent work than most of his fellow journeymen anyway. His ERA- of 79 is well above average, but his peripherals suggest regression is incoming with a 102 FIP- and 107 xFIP- over the same stretch. Interestingly, those splits aren't too far off from Gregory Soto (82 ERA- | 95 FIP- | 108 xFIP-) over the last two years, who the Phillies traded three players for vs Payamps being more or less a throw-in. Obviously Soto throws harder and is a "proven closer" so he'll always be more coveted than a guy like Payamps who gets to his run prevention via control and soft contact, but I never would have guessed their splits were so close given their difference in reputation and acquisition cost.
  18. sveumrules
    oWAR and dWAR on BRef do not sum perfectly to a player's WAR because they both include the positional adjustment. For Kim BRef has him at +6 BAT | +3 BSR | +12 FLD | +8 POS | +20 REP which sums to 49 RAR or 5.1 WAR. On FanGraphs he is at +3.5 BAT | +1.9 BSR | +4.0 FLD | +5.9 POS | +17.4 REP which sums to 34.9 RAR or 3.7 WAR. As is the case with most players the main column driving the end WAR difference is fielding, which accounts for 8 of the 14 RAR difference between the two systems for Kim.
  19. sveumrules
    Robles had 32 HR in 1,796 minor league PAs. Chourio has 25 HR so far in 628 minor league PAs. Sure, they were both CF ranked in the Top 10, but they are different prospects. Of course being a highly ranked prospect doesn't guarantee anything, Jackson will have to continue to prove himself as he climbs the ladder. But given what he has accomplished to this point, at an age when most prospects are just graduating high school, the optimism & excitement around him from sources outside of the organization & fanbase doesn't seem out of line to me.
  20. sveumrules
    Which prospects do you believe have better age relative production while also profiling as a CF with plus speed?
  21. sveumrules
    282/342/538 (135 wRC+) across three levels in 2022 is pedestrian? Tough crowd.
  22. sveumrules
    Here are the Brewers full season OD Payrolls per Cots (with MLB ranks) over the last 15 years, during which time the Brewers have won the 8th most games in MLB… 2022: $132M (19th) 2021: $99M (19th) 2019: $123M (17th) 2018: $99M (26th) 2017: $63M (30th) 2016: $64M (30th) 2015: $104M (20th) 2014: $104M (16th) 2013: $89M (19th) 2012: $98M (13th) 2011: $84M (17th) 2010: $90M (17th) 2009: $80M (17th) 2008: $81M (15th) The Brewers have a decade and a half long history of outperforming their payroll rank in the win column. Consistently ranking around 17th-19th in payroll is probably the ceiling given Milwaukee’s market size and TV contract are among the smallest in MLB. The idea that the Brewers are putting out a declining product is demonstrably false too… 1983-2007: 1874-2105 (.471 W%) 2008-11: 343-305 (.529 W%) 2012-16: 380-430 (.469 W%) 2017-22: 481-390 (.552 W%) The last six seasons have been the best run of Brewers baseball since making the WS forty years ago.
  23. sveumrules
    When they called up Pablo last year I knew any Reyes of hope were all but gone.
  24. sveumrules
    Hernandez added to the Brewers list at #22 per FanGraphs with this scouting report… ”Hernandez's stuff, especially his slider, is the darling of some proprietary metrics. He has a tight, upper-70s slider that he throws most often, using it at a 60% clip in 2022. His tailing fastball will creep into the mid-90s and has the uphill angle that teams like Milwaukee covet, with both the tailing movement and angle stemming from his low arm slot. He struggles badly to throw strikes with his fastball, which is probably why he leans on his big-breaking slider more than half the time. There's a tertiary changeup here, but Hernandez's approach to pitching (which is to get ahead of a hitter with his slider, then try to run the fastball up the ladder) is more typical of a single-inning reliever than someone who has worked as a starter to this point. If he finally has an arm strength uptick in the bullpen, he'll be a solid middle reliever; if he can ever learn to command his fastball, his ceiling is higher than that.“
  25. sveumrules
    Among 287 relievers with at least 50 IP over the last two years Scott Barlow is at 148 IP (2nd), 5.2 rWAR (1st), 3.0 fWAR (10th) and +4.28 WPA (8th) with a 54 ERA- | 78 FIP- | 85 xFIP-. That is worlds better than Soto at 124 IP (36th), 0.5 rWAR (254th), 0.7 fWAR (129th) and +1.73 WPA (61st) with an 82 ERA- | 95 FIP- | 108 xFIP-. Any deal for Barlow probably starts with Mitchell or Wiemer. Rainey had TJ in August, would rather just see if Small can figure out his command than deal him for someone out most of 2023. I’d do the Mayo deal, but would guess BAL would want Lauer over Houser and someone with more value/control than Hiura for the 2nd piece, at which point it prolly isn’t worth it anymore from the MIL side.
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