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sveumrules

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Everything posted by sveumrules

  1. sveumrules
    Obviously he's been a little bit older, but looking at that same last two years minimum 150 IP across all levels leaderboard Shane Smith has some pretty impressive rankings too... 2.86 xFIP (2nd) | 24.3 K-BB% (3rd) | 32.4 K% (4th, tied with Misio) | 1.01 WHIP (5th) | 3.03 FIP (5th) | 2.63 ERA (7th) | .193 AVG (12th) | 77.6 LOB% (21st)
  2. sveumrules
    He’d be an easy Rule 5 pick with MLB ready stuff and command for a bullpen role. His change up is especially nasty. There are 441 pitchers with at least 150 IP across all levels of the minors the last two years. Logan ranks… 34.0 K% (1st) | 27.3 K-BB% (1st) | 0.94 WHIP (2nd) | 3.08 xFIP (5th) | .191 AVG (9th) | 78.0 LOB% (18th) | 3.04 ERA (23rd) | 6.6 BB% (46th) | 3.53 FIP (54th)
  3. sveumrules
    Jose Ramirez thru age 19 534 PAs | 6.0 BB% | 8.1 K% | .116 ISO Juan Baez thru age 19 838 PAs | 6.7 BB% | 10.9 K% | .116 ISO Pretty crazy how close they are right down to matching isolated sluggings and everything. Baez's K% is a few points higher, but the average K rate in the 2024 Carolina League was 25.3% compared to 19.5% in the 2012 Midwest League when Ramirez was a 19 year old in A ball so that is mostly contextual. Ramirez even went 29 SB | 13 CS (69.0%) thru age 19, a tick worse than Baez at 47 SB | 19 CS (71.2%) so far. And Jose has turned himself into one of the best base runners in the league with his +40.3 BSR since 2016 third highest in all of MLB behind only Trea Turner (+58.9) and Billy Hamilton (+44.3), just ahead of guys like Yelich (+37.5) and Mookie (+34.2). The big difference is that Ramirez had the platoon advantage every at bat and put up a .366 BABIP on all those balls in play resulting in a 342/383/459 (131 wRC+) line whereas Baez has only run a .321 BABIP for a 295/347/411 (107 wRC+) triple slash thus far. Obviously comparing any 19 year old to a future HOFer who is one of the greatest player development stories of all time is pure unadulterated folly, but some of the same ingredients are definitely there and it's October so here we are.
  4. sveumrules
    Were the Braun and Yelich extensions really blunders though? Braun got paid $95M once adjusting for the COVID shortened season to put up a 117 wRC+ and 8.2 WAR from 2016-20 on Brewers teams that went a combined 373 W - 336 L with three playoff trips and one just missed during what were supposed to be the early years of rebuild. Sure, from a pure dollars per win standpoint they overpaid, but Braun was still a contributing member to teams that exceeded expectations at the time. Yelich's extension started in 2022 so he has gotten paid $78M to put up a 123 wRC+ and 8.9 WAR so far. In 2023 the average price at the top of the market was around $10M per win making Yelich a slight bargain to this point.
  5. sveumrules
    Good thing Narveson has only missed a kick in four of six games then.
  6. sveumrules
    Whether no salary cap works or doesn't work is kind of immaterial at this point because the Players Association has been pretty unwaveringly against one for some time now. Besides, salary caps are Socialist and baseball is American.
  7. sveumrules
    The first guy that comes to mind for me when I think hit tool only is Donovan Solano. Since 2019 he has 1,838 PAs with an 80 BB+ | 89 K+ | 119 AVG+ | 71 ISO+ which shakes out to a 112 wRC+. His -8.5 BsR is even somewhat reminiscent of Baez too. Going back to Jean Segura upthread, from 2016-22 he put up 3,681 PAs of 69 BB+ | 63 K+ | 116 AVG+ | 82 ISO+ | 109 wRC+. Less walks and strikeouts, a little more power than Solano, so why did he get double the PAs? Defense (he was a capable SS/plus 2B) and base running (+14.1 BsR) of course. The pie in the sky it’s fun to dream is Baez discovers a power stroke and some modicum of selectivity en route to going all Jose Ramirez on the league. Absent that, I think one can squint and see an outcome where Juan ends up as something of a Segura-lite since he’ll never be SS capable and is unlikely to be a big positive on the bases. Even if he just ended up as a more defensively capable version of Solano that would still be a pretty big win all things considered.
  8. sveumrules
    Lowe makes a lot of sense in the hitting, likely availability, and cost departments, but between age, injury history, and never really being a great defender to begin with I’m not sure the Brewers would view him as an everyday 2B. Think it’d be more of a super sub type role where he maybe plays like 30-40 games each at DH, 1B, and 2B.
  9. sveumrules
    There is no decision, Baez just swings. With his ridiculous contact ability it’s certainly been a suitable approach at the lower levels, but the big question will be if he can maintain that at the upper levels or will it lead to increased weak contact as he faces more advanced pitching that can utilize his aggression against him. That Yophery showed some patience and walked at a 12.2% clip gives me some hope that his approach is more sustainable long term even if it comes with a lot more swing and miss.
  10. sveumrules
    I like all of Boeve, Wilken, and Adams but I'm curious how much the Brewers really view any of them as 3B at the MLB level with none of them really profiling as plus defenders at the hot corner.
  11. sveumrules
    The finish on his swing in that clip gave me some Jean Segura flashbacks. Pretty similar offensive profiles - low walk, low K, high average, some pop relative to stature.
  12. sveumrules
    Kim is aging sure but he’s also heading into his age 29 season as a SS versus Hoskins who was heading into his age 31 season as a 1B/DH. Ha-Seong is starting from a much younger and more athletic place than Rhys was. Boras didn’t really stick the Brewers with anything, both sides negotiated and agreed to the contract. The Brewers understood if Hoskins didn’t have a good enough year to warrant opting out that they would be on the hook for the second year and were fine with assuming that risk, or they wouldn’t have put pen to paper.
  13. sveumrules
    Kim will be interesting to follow with the shoulder situation. Would be a pretty nice fit for all the reasons you mentioned otherwise. Could be a candidate to accept the QO if the Padres offer it.
  14. sveumrules
    Leaguewide OPS was all the way down at .711 this year (3rd lowest in the last 30 years), so only six qualified shortstops cleared an .800 OPS. Willy's .794 OPS was 7th and once adjusted for home park (119 wRC+) was a scooch better than Elly De La Cruz's .808 OPS | 118 wRC+. Even with a down year defensively, his 4.7 WAR ranked 5th among qualified SS. Had a career year, tied Ken Griffey Jr. for most three run bombs in a single season, and was the unquestioned leader on a team that overachieved every reasonable regular season expectation. The next contract very likely won't be justified, but the hype around Willy's performance this year certainly was.
  15. sveumrules
    Jacob MisiorowskiCooper PrattJeferson QueroJesus MadeRobert GasserTyler BlackLogan HendersonYophery RodriguezCraig YohoK.C. HuntBraylon PayneJosh KnothLuke AdamsBrock WilkenEric BitontiLuis PenaMike BoeveLuis LaraJose AndersonErnesto Martinez
  16. sveumrules
    If they lose tonight that would make them 2 W - 9 L in their last 11 playoff games. Just another team out there faux competing I guess. Might have to really go for it and push payroll to $350M next year. I dunno, maybe Friedman’s stuff just doesn’t work in the playoffs (global pandemic seasons notwithstanding)
  17. sveumrules
    Woodruff’s first “full” season as a starter was 2019 with 22 GS. If we were to say an actual full season (no quotes) is 30 GS, then Brandon has “missed” 8, 0, 3, 19 and 30 starts over the last five full seasons for a total of 60. Even with all that missed time, his 595 IP from 2019-24 still ranks 65th in MLB among only 100 pitchers with at least 500 IP, such is the state of pitching injury around the league. During that same stretch Woody’s 69 ERA- is tied for 1st and his 72 FIP- is tied for 2nd among those same 100 pitchers, so while decline is inevitable (even had he not gotten injured) at least he’ll be regressing from the very tippy top. My realistic expectations are zero or worse, but I don’t think it would be too crazy if Brando came out and pitched something like say 120 IP | 90 ERA- | 2.0 rWAR or thereabouts.
  18. sveumrules
    I just submitted my ballot without issue.
  19. sveumrules
    If Yelich is good for 130 games next year (BIG IF) my guess is it would shake out something like 90 at DH and 40 in LF.
  20. sveumrules
    Perdomo is theoretically available because the DBacks have Jordan Lawlar in the pipeline, though it appears he only played 23 games in the minors this year dealing with a variety of injuries. As for Geraldo's game, out of 324 players with at least 500 PAs over the least two years his standout traits are a 132 BB%+ (49th) and a 73 K%+ (51st) leading to a nice 0.69 BB/K rate (19th) on the good side, but only a 66 ISO+ (287th) on the bad side. That excellent plate discipline and underwhelming power output combined with a slightly above average hit tool (104 AVG+) adds up to a 99 wRC+ for the whole hitting package. The aux skills come in at 25 SB / 5 CS the last two years with his +4.6 BSR ranking 44th despite only having 40th percentile 27.0 ft/sec sprint speed, while his fielding at SS has graded out at +6 by DRS and an even zero by both of StatCasts's Outs Above Average and Fielding Run Value.
  21. sveumrules
    Per Cot's... Guarantees ($78.25M): Yelich ($24M), Hoskins ($18M), Williams ($10.5M), Peralta ($8M), Rea ($5.5M), Woodruff ($5M), Chourio ($4M), Ashby ($3.25M) Buyouts ($3.5M): don't know if they count on the 2024 or 2025 payroll, but Montas ($2M), Miley ($1.5M) Arbitration (???): number is parentheses is 2024's number so some degree of raise will occur based on performance, Civale ($4.9M), Milner ($2.05M), Payamps ($1.65M), Bauers ($1.35M), Wilson (1.025M), Haase ($1M). Out of those guys I would guess only Civale, Payamps and Haase are back for OD 2025. It is also Contreras, Megill and Mears first years of arbitration. Would guess Contreras will probably come in around the $5.25M that Will Smith got in his first Arby's trip. Everyone else is pre-Arby's so essentially $750-800K based on service time.
  22. sveumrules
    Urias as a target would probably be a case of how do the Brewers assess his defense? DRS has him +13 career at 3B in 2,184 innings compared to StatCast having him down for -8 FRV at 3B. Another issue could be his lack of walks. Brewers ran the 2nd highest BB% in MLB this year, 3rd highest in 2023, 4th highest in 2022. Urias has a 7.0% walk rate since 2022 which ranks 159th out of 230 batters with at least 1,000 PAs.
  23. sveumrules
    Peralta, Myers, Rea, Civale will all be back. Woodruff and Gasser coming off injury. Front office could still view Hall or Ashby as rotation options next year. Misio, Logan Henderson, KC Hunt, Shane Smith, Chad Patrick, Carlos Rodriguez at AAA. I'm sure they'll add some more depth options around the edges, but I don't really foresee any big payroll type additions to the staff.
  24. sveumrules
    The same bull headed determination that got him to 4,256 prevented him from owning up to his betting on baseball, and ultimately getting into the Hall. His life was essentially like a Greek Tragedy on AstroTurf.
  25. sveumrules
    For additional context on some of the other categories, here are the 2024 Brewers ranks out of 300 individual team seasons over the last decade... 217 stolen bases (2nd) +14.25 bullpen WPA (2nd) -0.54 ERA / FIP (3rd) +19.8 BsR (4th)
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