Matthew Trueblood
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Blame it all on Alek Manoah. When the Blue Jays' burly right-hander accidentally hit Angels outfielder Taylor Ward in the face with a pitch this weekend, it ratcheted up the urgency of Los Angeles's pursuit of a bat to round out their lineup. Already committed to 2023 contention, the team got ahold of both Randal Grichuk and C.J. Cron in a trade with the Rockies, sending them two pitchers with considerable upside who are (nonetheless) ages away from contributing to a big-league team. Grichuk is a capable corner outfielder with good power, and was a much-discussed possible upgrade over the likes of Tyrone Taylor in that role. Cron is a first baseman and designated hitter, and became less attractive a target once the Brewers landed Carlos Santana, but he was still a plausible fit at the right price. Speaking of the price, the most interesting thing here might be that both pitchers Colorado acquired are in Low A right now. Even understanding that they have a chance to mature into something valuable, getting both of these players for that kind of return is underwhelming, from the Rockies' perspective, and looks like a win for Perry Minasian of the Halos. There are two ways to read that. Maybe it means that the heavily seller-friendly market pundits forecasted is not quite as robust as expected. In that case, it could augur well for the Brewers, as they continue to seek more help offensively. On the other hand, two viable options just came off the board, and the cost only increases the feeling that the team might have missed an opportunity. There remain a few good right-handed hitters who will change teams over the next 44 hours, but this put a dent in that market. It was a good weekend for the Brewers' bats, but the NL Central race is tighter than ever, so they can't afford to miss out altogether on the chance to further improve.
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- 2023 trade deadline
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The Los Angeles Angels are becoming a bit of a problem for the Brewers as the MLB trade deadline draws near. They just scooped up two possible targets for Milwaukee in a single trade with the Rockies. Now what? Image courtesy of © Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports Blame it all on Alek Manoah. When the Blue Jays' burly right-hander accidentally hit Angels outfielder Taylor Ward in the face with a pitch this weekend, it ratcheted up the urgency of Los Angeles's pursuit of a bat to round out their lineup. Already committed to 2023 contention, the team got ahold of both Randal Grichuk and C.J. Cron in a trade with the Rockies, sending them two pitchers with considerable upside who are (nonetheless) ages away from contributing to a big-league team. Grichuk is a capable corner outfielder with good power, and was a much-discussed possible upgrade over the likes of Tyrone Taylor in that role. Cron is a first baseman and designated hitter, and became less attractive a target once the Brewers landed Carlos Santana, but he was still a plausible fit at the right price. Speaking of the price, the most interesting thing here might be that both pitchers Colorado acquired are in Low A right now. Even understanding that they have a chance to mature into something valuable, getting both of these players for that kind of return is underwhelming, from the Rockies' perspective, and looks like a win for Perry Minasian of the Halos. There are two ways to read that. Maybe it means that the heavily seller-friendly market pundits forecasted is not quite as robust as expected. In that case, it could augur well for the Brewers, as they continue to seek more help offensively. On the other hand, two viable options just came off the board, and the cost only increases the feeling that the team might have missed an opportunity. There remain a few good right-handed hitters who will change teams over the next 44 hours, but this put a dent in that market. It was a good weekend for the Brewers' bats, but the NL Central race is tighter than ever, so they can't afford to miss out altogether on the chance to further improve. View full article
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- 2023 trade deadline
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The Brewers' divisional lead couldn't be any slimmer, and in addition to the pesky Reds, they now face some threat from the onrushing Cubs. To stave off both, they need to complete the work they began by trading for Carlos Santana this week. Their lineup needs further reinforcement, ideally from a right-handed batter who can play some outfield. The trade targets who make the most sense in that vein are Mark Canha, of the Mets, and Brent Rooker, of the Athletics. Both players are right-handed hitters who mostly play left field. Neither is a strong defensive player. For various reasons, they're likely to have similar price tags in trades. Ultimately, though, they're quite different. Which one makes more sense for the Crew? Mark Canha Already 34 years old, Canha is in the second season of a two-year, $26.5-million deal he signed with the Mets prior to 2022. He's a well-built, relatively fast player, but he's not the good defender he once was, even in left field. He also doesn't hit for especially good power, particularly given his defensive limitations. That's the bad news. The good news is plenty good, though. Canha commands the strike zone, and owns a .347 career on-base percentage. His .338 mark this year would be his lowest since 2018, but he's trending up, hitting .260/.367/.400 in July. He doesn't swing and miss very much. He doesn't expand the zone. He hits line drives. Canha could platoon with Sal Frelick in right field when the team is at full strength, but unless and until that state is achieved, he'd be an upgrade over the incumbent options at designated hitter. If they acquired him, the Brewers would also hold a club option on him for 2024, worth $11.5 million (with a $2-million buyout, which they could plausibly get kicked into this deal by the Mets). Brent Rooker Nowhere near the overall athlete Canha can be, Rooker is best confined to DH duties, although he could spell Christian Yelich some in left field without doing too much damage. When he's hitting to his full potential, it doesn't matter where he plays, because his bat is lethal. That's how he ended up on the All-Star team this season. He did go into a long slump in June, and he's been selectively used since, but over the last month, he's batting .302/.371/.585. Even in that span, Rooker has fanned 23 times in 62 plate appearances. Unlike Canha, he has ample power--some of the best in baseball--but tons of swing-and-miss in his offensive profile, and he draws few walks. He crushes lefties, but often gets eaten up by right-handed hurlers with good sliders. The exciting thing about Rooker is that he's under team control for the long run. He can't even become arbitration-eligible until the offseason following 2024. He'd be an addition to whom the team could hold on for as much as the next four years, if he discovers greater consistency in his approach under the tutelage of Brewers hitting coaches. Yet, he'd cost little more than Canha, because the league (including the A's themselves) is well aware of his warts and his limitations already. Rooker feels more like a Brewers move. Though Matt Arnold will surely prove to be different in some ways than David Stearns was, the track record for this front office is that they like to do arbitrage with young, defensively limited hitters in whom they see certain upside. They found Jesus Aguilar, Eric Thames, and Rowdy Tellez. Rooker is the spiritual successor to moves like that one, and to the team bringing in Luke Voit and Darin Ruf earlier this year. For that very reason, though, one could argue that Canha is the guy for whom to shoot. The Brewers' lineup needs depth at least as much as it needs one-dimensional power. Canha is the one who lengthens a batting order and puts more relentless pressure on the opposing pitching staff. He's the one who could join the baserunning carousel the team likes to run when Brice Turang and/or Joey Wiemer is getting on base. The Brewers need to think like a division leader with a chance to earn one of the byes that exist under the newly expanded playoff format. Canha is the guy who gives them a better chance to cinch a division title and make noise in October.
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- 2023 trade deadline
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Two right-handed outfield bats make an awful lot of sense for the Brewers, with two days before the trade deadline. Their prices are likely to be similar. Which one should they pursue? Image courtesy of © Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports The Brewers' divisional lead couldn't be any slimmer, and in addition to the pesky Reds, they now face some threat from the onrushing Cubs. To stave off both, they need to complete the work they began by trading for Carlos Santana this week. Their lineup needs further reinforcement, ideally from a right-handed batter who can play some outfield. The trade targets who make the most sense in that vein are Mark Canha, of the Mets, and Brent Rooker, of the Athletics. Both players are right-handed hitters who mostly play left field. Neither is a strong defensive player. For various reasons, they're likely to have similar price tags in trades. Ultimately, though, they're quite different. Which one makes more sense for the Crew? Mark Canha Already 34 years old, Canha is in the second season of a two-year, $26.5-million deal he signed with the Mets prior to 2022. He's a well-built, relatively fast player, but he's not the good defender he once was, even in left field. He also doesn't hit for especially good power, particularly given his defensive limitations. That's the bad news. The good news is plenty good, though. Canha commands the strike zone, and owns a .347 career on-base percentage. His .338 mark this year would be his lowest since 2018, but he's trending up, hitting .260/.367/.400 in July. He doesn't swing and miss very much. He doesn't expand the zone. He hits line drives. Canha could platoon with Sal Frelick in right field when the team is at full strength, but unless and until that state is achieved, he'd be an upgrade over the incumbent options at designated hitter. If they acquired him, the Brewers would also hold a club option on him for 2024, worth $11.5 million (with a $2-million buyout, which they could plausibly get kicked into this deal by the Mets). Brent Rooker Nowhere near the overall athlete Canha can be, Rooker is best confined to DH duties, although he could spell Christian Yelich some in left field without doing too much damage. When he's hitting to his full potential, it doesn't matter where he plays, because his bat is lethal. That's how he ended up on the All-Star team this season. He did go into a long slump in June, and he's been selectively used since, but over the last month, he's batting .302/.371/.585. Even in that span, Rooker has fanned 23 times in 62 plate appearances. Unlike Canha, he has ample power--some of the best in baseball--but tons of swing-and-miss in his offensive profile, and he draws few walks. He crushes lefties, but often gets eaten up by right-handed hurlers with good sliders. The exciting thing about Rooker is that he's under team control for the long run. He can't even become arbitration-eligible until the offseason following 2024. He'd be an addition to whom the team could hold on for as much as the next four years, if he discovers greater consistency in his approach under the tutelage of Brewers hitting coaches. Yet, he'd cost little more than Canha, because the league (including the A's themselves) is well aware of his warts and his limitations already. Rooker feels more like a Brewers move. Though Matt Arnold will surely prove to be different in some ways than David Stearns was, the track record for this front office is that they like to do arbitrage with young, defensively limited hitters in whom they see certain upside. They found Jesus Aguilar, Eric Thames, and Rowdy Tellez. Rooker is the spiritual successor to moves like that one, and to the team bringing in Luke Voit and Darin Ruf earlier this year. For that very reason, though, one could argue that Canha is the guy for whom to shoot. The Brewers' lineup needs depth at least as much as it needs one-dimensional power. Canha is the one who lengthens a batting order and puts more relentless pressure on the opposing pitching staff. He's the one who could join the baserunning carousel the team likes to run when Brice Turang and/or Joey Wiemer is getting on base. The Brewers need to think like a division leader with a chance to earn one of the byes that exist under the newly expanded playoff format. Canha is the guy who gives them a better chance to cinch a division title and make noise in October. View full article
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He's counting on that! Sneaks up on EVERYONE!
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We're off and running! The Brewers have acquired first baseman Carlos Santana from the Pirates, patching the most obvious hole in their roster as they prepare to sprint for the finish in the NL Central. Image courtesy of © Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports With Rowdy Tellez still sidelined with the finger injury he sustained in a freak shagging accident, the Brewers have elected not to wait any longer to fix first base. In Carlos Santana, 37, they get one of the most metronomic, disciplined switch-hitters in baseball. He batted .235/.321/.412 in 393 plate appearances with Pittsburgh. He's been a deceptively adroit and agile fielder for his entire career, and he's a sneakily good baserunner. He's stolen six bases in six tries in 2023. In exchange for Santana, the Brewers gave up Jhonny Severino, one of the two jewels of their 2022 international free agent signing class. Here’s what our prospect maven Spencer Michaelis had to say about Severino: The gist of this should be familiar to fans of the Crew. The team gave up a player who is years from having the potential to contribute for an immediate impact during a pennant race. Sometimes, a player like that turns out to be Freddy Peralta, but even in that case, it can be worth it. Whether this trade will be remembered fondly will come down to how Santana and the 2023 Brewers finish the season. Formerly a dangerous, balanced power hitter from both sides of the plate, Santana has aged into more of a professional drawer of walks. Since the start of 2020, he's batted .213, with a .368 slugging average. That's weighed down by a miserable 2021 with the Royals, though. He's still capable of hitting 15-20 home runs over a full season, and of getting hot for a while. Meanwhile, his patience at bat sets a high floor for his offensive contributions. Just as importantly, perhaps, Santana's arrival spells the end of the team's desperate casting-about for a first baseman. Owen Miller can throw out his first baseman's mitt. One of Santana's surprising virtues has been durability; he routinely racks up 150-plus games player and over 600 plate appearances. He's a terrific clubhouse presence and leader for the team, too. This is the kind of move that leaves the options box for others full. It's a great start, though, and a sign that the Brewers intend to secure their advantage in the division race to the best of their ability. View full article
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With Rowdy Tellez still sidelined with the finger injury he sustained in a freak shagging accident, the Brewers have elected not to wait any longer to fix first base. In Carlos Santana, 37, they get one of the most metronomic, disciplined switch-hitters in baseball. He batted .235/.321/.412 in 393 plate appearances with Pittsburgh. He's been a deceptively adroit and agile fielder for his entire career, and he's a sneakily good baserunner. He's stolen six bases in six tries in 2023. In exchange for Santana, the Brewers gave up Jhonny Severino, one of the two jewels of their 2022 international free agent signing class. Here’s what our prospect maven Spencer Michaelis had to say about Severino: The gist of this should be familiar to fans of the Crew. The team gave up a player who is years from having the potential to contribute for an immediate impact during a pennant race. Sometimes, a player like that turns out to be Freddy Peralta, but even in that case, it can be worth it. Whether this trade will be remembered fondly will come down to how Santana and the 2023 Brewers finish the season. Formerly a dangerous, balanced power hitter from both sides of the plate, Santana has aged into more of a professional drawer of walks. Since the start of 2020, he's batted .213, with a .368 slugging average. That's weighed down by a miserable 2021 with the Royals, though. He's still capable of hitting 15-20 home runs over a full season, and of getting hot for a while. Meanwhile, his patience at bat sets a high floor for his offensive contributions. Just as importantly, perhaps, Santana's arrival spells the end of the team's desperate casting-about for a first baseman. Owen Miller can throw out his first baseman's mitt. One of Santana's surprising virtues has been durability; he routinely racks up 150-plus games player and over 600 plate appearances. He's a terrific clubhouse presence and leader for the team, too. This is the kind of move that leaves the options box for others full. It's a great start, though, and a sign that the Brewers intend to secure their advantage in the division race to the best of their ability.
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As good as Hoby Milner has been, the Brewers need to give him some help from the left side. Milner is fifth in the NL in appearances this year, already nearing 50 for the campaign. He's been dazzling, with an ERA of 2.21 and 38 strikeouts against nine walks. The heavy usage the team has asked of him, however, figures to wear him down as the season nears its conclusion. Justin Wilson is a good complement if he's fully healthy and on his game, but the Brewers only have a few days to find out whether he's going to be at that level. There are several lefty relievers who should be available this week, though, and whom the Brewers could acquire cheaply. Here are three particularly appealing options. Brad Hand, LHP, Rockies There's actually, ahem, an even more appealing Rockies lefty on the market, but bringing back Brent Suter at deadline premium prices might be a bit too awkward to manage. Instead, the Brewers could call about Hand, a journeyman whose career keeps coming back from the brink. Hand has a wicked slider that plays well off his fastball, even as the latter offering loses its former juice. Hand's surface-level numbers look poor, which might hold down his acquisition cost, but he's actually been solid for the Rockies. Getting him out of Coors Field would solve half his problems overnight. A pure rental, Hand shouldn't cost much. The Rockies just acquired a pair of fungible prospects for right-handed reliever Pierce Johnson, from Atlanta. Matt Moore, LHP, Angels With the Rangers under .500 over the last six weeks and the AL East's Wild Card contenders looking less formidable by the minute, the Angels have a clearer path to contention than they seemed to have even a fortnight ago. That could render Moore unavailable at the deadline, but if the team elects to make him available, he'd be a great fit for Milwaukee. Since converting to the bullpen for good at the start of 2022, he's run an ERA around 2.00, striking out over 25 percent of opponents and inducing a good amount of weak contact. Though far separated from the young man who was one of baseball's top three prospects over a decade ago, this version of Moore throws about 94, with good life on the fastball. His changeup and curveball both miss bats. His command isn't what one might wish it were, but he's still a solid setup option from the port side. Brooks Raley, LHP, Mets In a Brewers bullpen that specializes in inducing weak contact, Raley would be a perfect fit and a standout addition. He stays off barrels as well as any pitcher in baseball, with lots of spin and four pitches (a sweeping slider, a sinker, a cutter, and a changeup) he can use to flummox hitters despite his low-end velocity. The Mets are likely to end up selling as they stumble toward the deadline, and Raley would be one of their most attractive trade chips. He can be kept on a club option for $6.25 million in 2024, with a $1.25-million buyout, and that would make him slightly more expensive than Hand or Moore, but he's also likely to be better than either of them the rest of the way. More than Milner or Wilson, Raley could slot in as a true late-inning, high-leverage weapon, to go along with the team's cluster of trusted setup men.
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- 2023 trade deadline
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Some much-needed help is on the way for the left-handed section of the Brewers' bullpen. The team will soon activate southpaw Justin Wilson, who has completed his long rehab and is ready to return to the big leagues. Nonetheless, the team needs to keep left-handed relief help on its shopping list, with six days left before the MLB trade deadline. Image courtesy of Brewer Fanatic As good as Hoby Milner has been, the Brewers need to give him some help from the left side. Milner is fifth in the NL in appearances this year, already nearing 50 for the campaign. He's been dazzling, with an ERA of 2.21 and 38 strikeouts against nine walks. The heavy usage the team has asked of him, however, figures to wear him down as the season nears its conclusion. Justin Wilson is a good complement if he's fully healthy and on his game, but the Brewers only have a few days to find out whether he's going to be at that level. There are several lefty relievers who should be available this week, though, and whom the Brewers could acquire cheaply. Here are three particularly appealing options. Brad Hand, LHP, Rockies There's actually, ahem, an even more appealing Rockies lefty on the market, but bringing back Brent Suter at deadline premium prices might be a bit too awkward to manage. Instead, the Brewers could call about Hand, a journeyman whose career keeps coming back from the brink. Hand has a wicked slider that plays well off his fastball, even as the latter offering loses its former juice. Hand's surface-level numbers look poor, which might hold down his acquisition cost, but he's actually been solid for the Rockies. Getting him out of Coors Field would solve half his problems overnight. A pure rental, Hand shouldn't cost much. The Rockies just acquired a pair of fungible prospects for right-handed reliever Pierce Johnson, from Atlanta. Matt Moore, LHP, Angels With the Rangers under .500 over the last six weeks and the AL East's Wild Card contenders looking less formidable by the minute, the Angels have a clearer path to contention than they seemed to have even a fortnight ago. That could render Moore unavailable at the deadline, but if the team elects to make him available, he'd be a great fit for Milwaukee. Since converting to the bullpen for good at the start of 2022, he's run an ERA around 2.00, striking out over 25 percent of opponents and inducing a good amount of weak contact. Though far separated from the young man who was one of baseball's top three prospects over a decade ago, this version of Moore throws about 94, with good life on the fastball. His changeup and curveball both miss bats. His command isn't what one might wish it were, but he's still a solid setup option from the port side. Brooks Raley, LHP, Mets In a Brewers bullpen that specializes in inducing weak contact, Raley would be a perfect fit and a standout addition. He stays off barrels as well as any pitcher in baseball, with lots of spin and four pitches (a sweeping slider, a sinker, a cutter, and a changeup) he can use to flummox hitters despite his low-end velocity. The Mets are likely to end up selling as they stumble toward the deadline, and Raley would be one of their most attractive trade chips. He can be kept on a club option for $6.25 million in 2024, with a $1.25-million buyout, and that would make him slightly more expensive than Hand or Moore, but he's also likely to be better than either of them the rest of the way. More than Milner or Wilson, Raley could slot in as a true late-inning, high-leverage weapon, to go along with the team's cluster of trusted setup men. View full article
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- 2023 trade deadline
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I know this sounds naive or backward, but I’m a big believer that with certain guys, wRC+ just doesn’t fairly handle Coors. I don’t think McMahon needs Coors. I actually think the shuttling to and from elevation hurts him more than the thin air at home helps. That’s not to mention the deleterious effect of the Rockies’ terrible coaching and development infrastructures. I evaluate him as an above-average bat, with the right adjustments, and I know there are folks within baseball who feel similarly. The Brewers would have to do so to make this move, though, and I don’t know whether they do.
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Is Ryan McMahon the Perfect Trade Fit for the Brewers?
Matthew Trueblood posted an article in Brewers
According to Baseball Prospectus, it's right-handed pitching against whom the Brewers have actually struggled worse this season, when adjusting for park, opponent quality, and other factors. They're 21st in MLB in Deserved Runs Created (DRC+) against southpaws this year, but a truly miserable 28th against righties. That implies that the best possible boost for the lineup might be a left-handed hitter. With Brian Anderson sidelined indefinitely by a lower back strain, could the Rockies' Ryan McMahon be the perfect fit? It seems like a match made in heaven. McMahon, 28, is not having a dominant season, but he's a reliable, versatile weapon, and there might be upside aplenty left in him, even in his late 20s;. He's a left-handed batter with a batting line of .267/.361/.490 against right-handed pitchers in 2023. He's a plus defender at third base and a fine one at second, and he's under contract through 2027, thanks to an extensions he signed with the Rockies last March. Though he's not putting up elite power numbers, McMahon has the contact profile of someone who can. He hits the ball hard more often than most batters, as a percentage of his batted balls. He's increased his Barrel rate to a career high in 2023, according to Statcast. He uses the whole field, and he's drawing walks at a clip north of 11 percent, an impressive figure and a career best. The big wart on McMahon this year is his strikeout rate, which stands at a concerning 31.6 percent. That's considerably worse than he's had in his previous full seasons, and it's eating into the upside of his offensive skills. In particular, he's whiffing more on pitches in the strike zone this year, which is never a recipe for success. Whiffing on fastballs can be especially worrisome, but McMahon's bat isn't slowing down. He's dealing with an approach issue, rather than a mechanical or physical one. He's a better hitter when he forces opponents to throw him strikes over the inner part of the plate, and it's usually something he does quite well. This year, though, he's expanding his hitting zone a bit more often, and swinging at pitches that he can't handle well as a result. Here's his swing rate by pitch location, with 2022 on the left and 2023 on the right. Within that, he's also not making as much contact on pitches on the outer third, because he's being too aggressive and trying to pull the ball too much. Even amid those struggles, though, McMahon has been productive. The Brewers specialize in helping hitters smooth out approach problems. It's a big reason why Luis Urias, Willy Adames, and Rowdy Tellez each unlocked their potential upon arriving in Milwaukee. Landing McMahon would give the team both flexibility and stability, because he can hit enough to be in the heart of the order and would sustain the Brewers' excellent defense whether they use him at second base or at the hot corner. In the short term, the obvious move is to keep him at third, but if they acquired him, the Crew could move him to second next year to accommodate the arrival of Tyler Black. That assumes, of course, that Black wouldn't be involved in a trade for McMahon. He might be. This is the kind of move that would require the Brewers to pay a handsome price. It wouldn't involve Jackson Chourio or Sal Frelick, but the Rockies would want to at least discuss deals involving any of the Crew's other top prospects. Brice Turang or Garrett Mitchell could be in play. Conceptually, all of that is ok. McMahon would be a long-term solution at a locked-in, affordable price. He'd probably further blossom upon escaping the Rockies, despite the loss of the advantage of playing half one's home games at Coors Field. It's hard to justify paying high prices for rental players this year, because the Brewers are in a delicate place in the progress of their franchise. They still face the looming free agency of Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, and Adames. They want to win this year, and to put together a team that looks more like the juggernauts in Atlanta and Los Angeles, but they also want to keep their next core and the objective of competing on a perennial basis in mind. Bringing in McMahon would be a creative way to kill both of those birds with one stone. -
For much of the season, the division-leading Brewers have seemed to most need a right-handed bat. They struggled early against left-handed pitchers and were counting on Jesse Winker eventually figuring things out, so it was a righty bat that seemed vital. At this stage, though, the best trade target the team could pursue might be a left-handed infield stick. Image courtesy of Brewer Fanatic According to Baseball Prospectus, it's right-handed pitching against whom the Brewers have actually struggled worse this season, when adjusting for park, opponent quality, and other factors. They're 21st in MLB in Deserved Runs Created (DRC+) against southpaws this year, but a truly miserable 28th against righties. That implies that the best possible boost for the lineup might be a left-handed hitter. With Brian Anderson sidelined indefinitely by a lower back strain, could the Rockies' Ryan McMahon be the perfect fit? It seems like a match made in heaven. McMahon, 28, is not having a dominant season, but he's a reliable, versatile weapon, and there might be upside aplenty left in him, even in his late 20s;. He's a left-handed batter with a batting line of .267/.361/.490 against right-handed pitchers in 2023. He's a plus defender at third base and a fine one at second, and he's under contract through 2027, thanks to an extensions he signed with the Rockies last March. Though he's not putting up elite power numbers, McMahon has the contact profile of someone who can. He hits the ball hard more often than most batters, as a percentage of his batted balls. He's increased his Barrel rate to a career high in 2023, according to Statcast. He uses the whole field, and he's drawing walks at a clip north of 11 percent, an impressive figure and a career best. The big wart on McMahon this year is his strikeout rate, which stands at a concerning 31.6 percent. That's considerably worse than he's had in his previous full seasons, and it's eating into the upside of his offensive skills. In particular, he's whiffing more on pitches in the strike zone this year, which is never a recipe for success. Whiffing on fastballs can be especially worrisome, but McMahon's bat isn't slowing down. He's dealing with an approach issue, rather than a mechanical or physical one. He's a better hitter when he forces opponents to throw him strikes over the inner part of the plate, and it's usually something he does quite well. This year, though, he's expanding his hitting zone a bit more often, and swinging at pitches that he can't handle well as a result. Here's his swing rate by pitch location, with 2022 on the left and 2023 on the right. Within that, he's also not making as much contact on pitches on the outer third, because he's being too aggressive and trying to pull the ball too much. Even amid those struggles, though, McMahon has been productive. The Brewers specialize in helping hitters smooth out approach problems. It's a big reason why Luis Urias, Willy Adames, and Rowdy Tellez each unlocked their potential upon arriving in Milwaukee. Landing McMahon would give the team both flexibility and stability, because he can hit enough to be in the heart of the order and would sustain the Brewers' excellent defense whether they use him at second base or at the hot corner. In the short term, the obvious move is to keep him at third, but if they acquired him, the Crew could move him to second next year to accommodate the arrival of Tyler Black. That assumes, of course, that Black wouldn't be involved in a trade for McMahon. He might be. This is the kind of move that would require the Brewers to pay a handsome price. It wouldn't involve Jackson Chourio or Sal Frelick, but the Rockies would want to at least discuss deals involving any of the Crew's other top prospects. Brice Turang or Garrett Mitchell could be in play. Conceptually, all of that is ok. McMahon would be a long-term solution at a locked-in, affordable price. He'd probably further blossom upon escaping the Rockies, despite the loss of the advantage of playing half one's home games at Coors Field. It's hard to justify paying high prices for rental players this year, because the Brewers are in a delicate place in the progress of their franchise. They still face the looming free agency of Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, and Adames. They want to win this year, and to put together a team that looks more like the juggernauts in Atlanta and Los Angeles, but they also want to keep their next core and the objective of competing on a perennial basis in mind. Bringing in McMahon would be a creative way to kill both of those birds with one stone. View full article
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I find Statcast pitch classifications to be a mess in general, so I use PitchInfo, skirting the second issue. I feel pretty confident, partly because of corroboration from some more expert eyes, that he’s got breaking ball problems. I’m aware of the VAA, and you’re right, that lets the pitch play up. I’m a big believer that the utility of an extreme VAA hinges on command, though. At that point, my feeling of uncertainty is just that I’m not convicted on him reaching that command threshold he needs. But again, could totally be wrong. Would love to be. There’s certainly still a mid-rotation ceiling. I think we just diverge a bit on the probability of that payoff.
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Neither ride nor velocity on the four-seamer; it’s pretty straight. Sinker is his more natural heat, but that’s tough to make work as the linchpin of a lefty starter profile. Cutter and slider lack vertical separation, which puts a lot of pressure on command of that fastball, something he’s struggled to show consistently so far. You want to see him effectively mix the four-seam, change, and cutter to righties, and still be able to go sinker-slider to lefties. That’s tough, man. It’s especially stuff when you don’t have a fastball that creates margin for error. There are a lot of good pieces with him. I’m just not *fully* sold that there’s a good whole picture to assemble from them. A lot of these medium-high tier pitching prospects have run into similar issues lately. He’s getting a little old and experienced to keep betting that the corners will be turned. Im not an expert. I could be wrong, and they could envision stuff based on his proprietary kinetic data or whatever that changes the equation. But I don’t think cashing him in while his trade value is riding high is a bad idea. (Notably, that doesn’t mean it needs to be for Hernandez. He could headline a trade for a Jeimer Candelario, or even be a big piece of one for Ryan McMahon. Some of that just depends on the other offers those guys’ teams get.)
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Different front office, but same owner. I’m just saying, it’s clear that the Brewers can and will (and I’ll argue that, at least eventually, they need to) spend money in free agency to compete consistently under Attanasio. My broader point, which perhaps got lost before I even fully made it, is that one thing good front offices do is identify guys in their own system who might have a lot of appeal to trade partners but less real, long-term utility. That kind of self-scouting is imperative, and I think on truth serum, Brian Cashman would tell you it’s why he dealt Wesneski. To me, there are some signs that Gasser is that kind of pitcher, but I don’t have any inside info suggesting the Brewers feel the same. It’s just my own sense and reading of watching him and his data.
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Now wait a minute. Kyle Lohse. Matt Garza. The Brewers spend for mid-rotation starters almost exactly as often as the Cubs do. I doubt it’s something Arnold himself is eager to do, but it’s certainly in his options box, especially if and when either Burnes or Woodruff departs and the money they’re currently committing to those two via arbitration comes off the books.
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This makes me worry that I was very unclear. By no means should or would the Brewers need to trade both of those guys to acquire any of these trade candidates. Nor would or should they be trying to land more than one of the guys in this piece. I’m just laying out options. They’re alternatives to one another, not moves you’d stack on top of each other.
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I get the perspective, but urge this: Never, ever assume that today’s bullpen will be tomorrow’s. There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical that this group, as currently comprised, can hold up and sustain what they’ve done over the first half. Being proactive, rather than just reactive, is the difference-maker for teams in close races at this time of year. Plus, the goal here shouldn’t be merely to win the division, but to pose a legitimate threat to Atlanta and the Dodgers in October. That means improving their strengths *and* their weaknesses.
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That the Brewers need to go shopping in the relief pitcher market this month is certainly no indictment of Devin Williams, Joel Payamps, or Elvis Peguero. Even after Peguero gave up a game-losing home run Sunday, that trio has led a supernal bullpen this year, and the Brewers' 19-8 record in one-run games is the biggest reason why they lead the NL Central (however precariously) entering this week's momentous series against the Reds. No one ever talks about a team's record in two-run games, but for what it's worth, the Brewers are 5-12 in them this year. That's as much on their offense as on their bullpen, but it illustrates the fact that their relief corps is not bulletproof. Nor will they look as good two months from now, if the team continues to need them as much as they have this month, unless the front office supplements the bullpen ahead of the deadline on August 1. Thus, we should take a quick look at some available relievers who would deepen that unit and lessen the burden on the guys whom Craig Counsell has come to trust the most this year. Carlos Hernandez, RHP, Royals Right off the bat, let's look past rental relievers and talk about what a more exciting acquisition could look like. After a conversion from starting to relieving, Hernandez has found two extra miles per hour and some added life on his fastball, plus some extra zip on his slider. He's used those two pitches and a modestly effective splitter to strike out nearly 30 percent of opposing batters this season, while walking a very tolerable 7 percent. He's a flamethrower already, and it's likely that the Brewers could tap into even more upon landing him. He also has four years of team control remaining beyond 2023. Because of that last fact, he'd be an unusually expensive trade piece, relative to the relievers who get swapped at most deadlines. He's similar to late-blooming reliever Scott Effross, whom the Cubs traded (with five years of club control left) to the Yankees last July for starter Hayden Wesneski. It was a steep price for New York, and Effross has now undergone Tommy John surgery, but the thought process at the time was that Effross might cement the team's status as favorites to charge through the American League playoffs. Wesneski had spent considerable time in the upper levels, but has shown his warts since getting his chance with the Cubs. The equivalent move for the Brewers would be to trade Robert Gasser for Hernandez, which sounds like a high price. However, Hernandez could find even greater utility for his stuff under the better tutelage of Brewers pitching coaches, and he would provide insurance against the regression or fatigue that might afflict Payamps, Peguero, or Williams late this season. He would also make it more possible to envision the long-term bullpen picture. David Robertson, RHP, Mets Apparently ageless, though not quite bionic, Robertson is having an even better season than he had last year, when he started the year with the Cubs and ended it as a linchpin of the Phillies' bullpen. He's eliminated the control problems that plagued him at times in 2022, and remains extremely effective with his unconventional mix of cutters and sharp curveballs. The Mets are stuck in the doldrums and are likely to move pieces just like Robertson, who's nearing 40 years of age and will be a free agent at year's end. He's a bit expensive monetarily, but that should only serve to keep the acquisition cost down. Failing that, the Mets might pay down his salary to facilitate the small-market Brewers taking him. Last year, he commanded a rising starting prospect in Double A. The equivalent in the Brewers farm would be someone like Carlos F. Rodriguez. Jose Cisnero, RHP, Tigers A lower-cost alternative to either of the above pitchers could be Cisnero, who is 34 and will be a free agent at season's end. He's a rare creature, a reliever with five pitches, and the Brewers would immediately clean up his pitch mix. (Gone, for instance, would be most of the sinkers he throws to lefties, and he'd follow in the steps of Payamps by becoming a sinker-slider guy to righties and a four-seam/changeup guy against lefties. Like Bryse Wilson, though, he'd also be likely to stick with and even emphasize the cutter, which seems to come out of his hand very naturally.) Cisnero won't be one of the five or six most talked-about right-handed relievers this deadline, but he's an obvious candidate to go somewhere, and the Brewers seem like an ideal destination. Any of these three, though, would lighten the loads of the team's existing triumvirate, and make it easier for them to both sew up the NL Central and push through the playoffs toward the World Series. Which one appeals most is about what you value most in a reliever; how much you want to plan for the future in that volatile area of the roster; and what appetite you have for giving up prospects to improve this flawed roster's chance to make a deep October run.
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Leading up to the MLB trade deadline next week, the buzz around the Brewers continues to center (rightfully) on hitters who can upgrade their inconsistent offense. If they want their success to last into October, though, they also need more depth in the bullpen. There are several options out there for them. Image courtesy of © Dave Nelson-USA TODAY Sports That the Brewers need to go shopping in the relief pitcher market this month is certainly no indictment of Devin Williams, Joel Payamps, or Elvis Peguero. Even after Peguero gave up a game-losing home run Sunday, that trio has led a supernal bullpen this year, and the Brewers' 19-8 record in one-run games is the biggest reason why they lead the NL Central (however precariously) entering this week's momentous series against the Reds. No one ever talks about a team's record in two-run games, but for what it's worth, the Brewers are 5-12 in them this year. That's as much on their offense as on their bullpen, but it illustrates the fact that their relief corps is not bulletproof. Nor will they look as good two months from now, if the team continues to need them as much as they have this month, unless the front office supplements the bullpen ahead of the deadline on August 1. Thus, we should take a quick look at some available relievers who would deepen that unit and lessen the burden on the guys whom Craig Counsell has come to trust the most this year. Carlos Hernandez, RHP, Royals Right off the bat, let's look past rental relievers and talk about what a more exciting acquisition could look like. After a conversion from starting to relieving, Hernandez has found two extra miles per hour and some added life on his fastball, plus some extra zip on his slider. He's used those two pitches and a modestly effective splitter to strike out nearly 30 percent of opposing batters this season, while walking a very tolerable 7 percent. He's a flamethrower already, and it's likely that the Brewers could tap into even more upon landing him. He also has four years of team control remaining beyond 2023. Because of that last fact, he'd be an unusually expensive trade piece, relative to the relievers who get swapped at most deadlines. He's similar to late-blooming reliever Scott Effross, whom the Cubs traded (with five years of club control left) to the Yankees last July for starter Hayden Wesneski. It was a steep price for New York, and Effross has now undergone Tommy John surgery, but the thought process at the time was that Effross might cement the team's status as favorites to charge through the American League playoffs. Wesneski had spent considerable time in the upper levels, but has shown his warts since getting his chance with the Cubs. The equivalent move for the Brewers would be to trade Robert Gasser for Hernandez, which sounds like a high price. However, Hernandez could find even greater utility for his stuff under the better tutelage of Brewers pitching coaches, and he would provide insurance against the regression or fatigue that might afflict Payamps, Peguero, or Williams late this season. He would also make it more possible to envision the long-term bullpen picture. David Robertson, RHP, Mets Apparently ageless, though not quite bionic, Robertson is having an even better season than he had last year, when he started the year with the Cubs and ended it as a linchpin of the Phillies' bullpen. He's eliminated the control problems that plagued him at times in 2022, and remains extremely effective with his unconventional mix of cutters and sharp curveballs. The Mets are stuck in the doldrums and are likely to move pieces just like Robertson, who's nearing 40 years of age and will be a free agent at year's end. He's a bit expensive monetarily, but that should only serve to keep the acquisition cost down. Failing that, the Mets might pay down his salary to facilitate the small-market Brewers taking him. Last year, he commanded a rising starting prospect in Double A. The equivalent in the Brewers farm would be someone like Carlos F. Rodriguez. Jose Cisnero, RHP, Tigers A lower-cost alternative to either of the above pitchers could be Cisnero, who is 34 and will be a free agent at season's end. He's a rare creature, a reliever with five pitches, and the Brewers would immediately clean up his pitch mix. (Gone, for instance, would be most of the sinkers he throws to lefties, and he'd follow in the steps of Payamps by becoming a sinker-slider guy to righties and a four-seam/changeup guy against lefties. Like Bryse Wilson, though, he'd also be likely to stick with and even emphasize the cutter, which seems to come out of his hand very naturally.) Cisnero won't be one of the five or six most talked-about right-handed relievers this deadline, but he's an obvious candidate to go somewhere, and the Brewers seem like an ideal destination. Any of these three, though, would lighten the loads of the team's existing triumvirate, and make it easier for them to both sew up the NL Central and push through the playoffs toward the World Series. Which one appeals most is about what you value most in a reliever; how much you want to plan for the future in that volatile area of the roster; and what appetite you have for giving up prospects to improve this flawed roster's chance to make a deep October run. View full article
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The Brewers had a galvanizing, exhilarating, season-shifting Saturday. They called up Sal Frelick and stuck him into the lineup for a nationally-televised home game against the best team in baseball, and the rookie came as close to singlehandedly winning them the game as a right fielder ever can. Frelick had the game-tying and go-ahead RBI, as the team came back from an early 3-0 deficit to win 4-3. Just as importantly, he made two dazzling catches near the fence in right, taking extra-base hits away as the Braves tried to add to their lead. Frelick now figures to be the everyday right fielder, or at least the strong side of a platoon with Tyrone Taylor. Until Taylor shows that he's regained his health and his form more completely than he did in his previous healthy stint, it should be mostly Frelick out there. The skills he showed with his hits and his sacrifice fly Saturday are the ones that made him a top prospect: a good approach, great feel for contact, and solid speed. He also, clearly, fits perfectly into one of the league's best defenses, a unit the Brewers have carefully cultivated and emphasized throughout the season. He shores up and lengthens the lineup nicely, though he clearly won't turn them overnight from a lousy offense into an average or better one. This development doesn't quite eliminate the possibility of a trade for a right fielder. Frelick has played center field the (narrow) majority of the time in the minors this year, and was primarily a center fielder last year. He could just as easily platoon with Joey Wiemer as with Taylor or Blake Perkins, should a good opportunity arise for the Brewers to trade for a right fielder. The better odds, though, have always been that the Brewers would find a first baseman or designated hitter to beef up the middle of the order, and Frelick being around makes that even more likely. That assumes, of course, that Frelick is still around on the other side of August 1. One reason to call up a prospect in the shadow of the approaching trade deadline is to showcase them for a potential trade. That's unlikely in this case, especially after Frelick immediately won the hearts of Brewers fans everywhere, but his trade stock rose right along with his Q-score on Saturday night. More plausibly, the team could take Frelick's arrival as an opportunity to shop Garrett Mitchell, who would be their dynamic, young left-handed outfielder if he weren't shelved with season-ending shoulder surgery back in April. Teams would give up more for Frelick than for Mitchell, of course, because the latter now has additional question marks on his scouting report--ones about his health and long-term prognosis, to go with the ones that already existed about his ability to make sufficient contact to get to his power and speed. However, the very fact of Frelick being in the mix (and, the Brewers hope, the improvement he brings to the offense even before they pursue external upgrades) could also make it less urgent that the team acquire someone new, anyway. If Frelick weren't part of the lineup, the team would need to trade for someone so good that they would need to trade Frelick to get them. If he can stick and help out on both sides of the ledger, they only need someone of the quality they can attain for a package starting with Mitchell. One game shouldn't guide the Brewers too forcefully. They should still keep the need for a big bat (ideally a right-handed one) front and center in their minds. With Frelick in the big-league fold, though, the necessary form of that deal is a bit less drastic, and they can husband their long-term resources (both talent and money) more closely, without it hurting their chances of winning the NL Central or making a run in October.
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With the MLB trade deadline a week and a half away, the Brewers made a roster change aimed at gaining some important information before making their key trade decisions. They just might have a new clarity about their needs, and about whom they should and shouldn't trade to fill them. Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports The Brewers had a galvanizing, exhilarating, season-shifting Saturday. They called up Sal Frelick and stuck him into the lineup for a nationally-televised home game against the best team in baseball, and the rookie came as close to singlehandedly winning them the game as a right fielder ever can. Frelick had the game-tying and go-ahead RBI, as the team came back from an early 3-0 deficit to win 4-3. Just as importantly, he made two dazzling catches near the fence in right, taking extra-base hits away as the Braves tried to add to their lead. Frelick now figures to be the everyday right fielder, or at least the strong side of a platoon with Tyrone Taylor. Until Taylor shows that he's regained his health and his form more completely than he did in his previous healthy stint, it should be mostly Frelick out there. The skills he showed with his hits and his sacrifice fly Saturday are the ones that made him a top prospect: a good approach, great feel for contact, and solid speed. He also, clearly, fits perfectly into one of the league's best defenses, a unit the Brewers have carefully cultivated and emphasized throughout the season. He shores up and lengthens the lineup nicely, though he clearly won't turn them overnight from a lousy offense into an average or better one. This development doesn't quite eliminate the possibility of a trade for a right fielder. Frelick has played center field the (narrow) majority of the time in the minors this year, and was primarily a center fielder last year. He could just as easily platoon with Joey Wiemer as with Taylor or Blake Perkins, should a good opportunity arise for the Brewers to trade for a right fielder. The better odds, though, have always been that the Brewers would find a first baseman or designated hitter to beef up the middle of the order, and Frelick being around makes that even more likely. That assumes, of course, that Frelick is still around on the other side of August 1. One reason to call up a prospect in the shadow of the approaching trade deadline is to showcase them for a potential trade. That's unlikely in this case, especially after Frelick immediately won the hearts of Brewers fans everywhere, but his trade stock rose right along with his Q-score on Saturday night. More plausibly, the team could take Frelick's arrival as an opportunity to shop Garrett Mitchell, who would be their dynamic, young left-handed outfielder if he weren't shelved with season-ending shoulder surgery back in April. Teams would give up more for Frelick than for Mitchell, of course, because the latter now has additional question marks on his scouting report--ones about his health and long-term prognosis, to go with the ones that already existed about his ability to make sufficient contact to get to his power and speed. However, the very fact of Frelick being in the mix (and, the Brewers hope, the improvement he brings to the offense even before they pursue external upgrades) could also make it less urgent that the team acquire someone new, anyway. If Frelick weren't part of the lineup, the team would need to trade for someone so good that they would need to trade Frelick to get them. If he can stick and help out on both sides of the ledger, they only need someone of the quality they can attain for a package starting with Mitchell. One game shouldn't guide the Brewers too forcefully. They should still keep the need for a big bat (ideally a right-handed one) front and center in their minds. With Frelick in the big-league fold, though, the necessary form of that deal is a bit less drastic, and they can husband their long-term resources (both talent and money) more closely, without it hurting their chances of winning the NL Central or making a run in October. View full article
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The Milwaukee Brewers are alone in first place in the NL Central, and after their emphatic sweep of the Reds in Cincinnati, momentum is on their side. Nothing should stop the Brewers from being aggressive buyers at the trade deadline. So what do they need, and where can they get it? Image courtesy of © David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports Key Team Needs The Brewers' infamously anemic offense didn't do much to inspire new confidence, even during a triumphant weekend to open the second half. They scored just eight total runs, against a team who couldn't even line up three respectable starting pitchers coming out of the All-Star break. Harvey's Wallbangers they ain't, and that's not going to change, but Milwaukee badly needs a bat. Finding the position at which to make an upgrade got a bit easier, although in an unhappy way, when Brian Anderson went on the injured list this weekend with a strain in his lower back. Rowdy Tellez also looks to be sidelined for a while, after breaking his finger shagging flies on Saturday. That makes it easy to picture adding a hitter at either infield corner, in right field, or at designated hitter, and at the moment, none of Brice Turange, Andruw Monasterio, and Owen Miller are foreclosing the possibility of doing better at second base. All things considered, Turang's and Miller's gloves make it worth leaving the middle infield alone, but the Brewers will be listening even on players who would slot in there. No contender is ever fully satisfied with its pitching staff, of course, and with uncertainty still hanging over Brandon Woodruff's recovery from the injury that shelved him in April, the Brewers could look into help in their starting rotation. Given the sheer number of guys they already have to fill out the rotation and their depth, however, it feels much more likely that they pursue an extra relief arm, unless a starter controllable beyond 2024 unexpectedly hits the market. Likely Sellers Thanks to the ever-expanding playoff field and format, it's still hard to tell exactly who will be buying and selling, and how aggressively they might do so. There's little question about a fistful of teams, however, because they've collapsed so thoroughly as to be virtually eliminated long ago. That group includes the Oakland Athletics, the Kansas City Royals, the Detroit Tigers, the Chicago White Sox, the Washington Nationals, the Colorado Rockies, and the St. Louis Cardinals. It's possible that the Chicago Cubs, the Pittsburgh Pirates, the New York Mets, the Boston Red Sox, the San Diego Padres, the Seattle Mariners, and the Los Angeles Angels could join and double those ranks, though. A Fast Survey of Targets In the coming days, we'll have lots of breakdowns of specific trade candidates and rumors, and we'll break down the positional possibilities. Right off the bat, though, here are a half-dozen hitters from the teams above who make superficially solid matches with the Brewers' needs. Jeimer Candelario, the third baseman of whom the Nationals made a reclamation project this winter, has had a solid year at the plate and in the field. He's still young, though he'll hit free agency at the end of the season, and the bruised thumb that sidelined him this weekend doesn't seem terribly serious. Eloy Jimenez is under contract with the White Sox through the end of next season, and then they hold two club options on him. That could make it hard to trade for him, but the power upside in his right-handed bat is hard to overlook. Mets outfielder Mark Canha also has an affordable club option, for 2024. The Mets need a shakeup, though, and Canha's approach (on-base skills aplenty, but limited power) could be a nice counterbalance in the middle of the Brewers' lineup. While the complexities of any intradivisional deal might thwart this one, Paul Goldschmidt is an excellent potential fit for the first base void that has so hampered the team. After a stout 2022, A's first baseman and outfielder Seth Brown has had a nightmarish 2023. Buying him now would feel eerily similar to snapping up Tellez a few years ago, though. Teoscar Hernandez hasn't been the star slugger he was last year with the Blue Jays, but the Mariners' unfriendly home park might be part of the problem. Either way, he'd be another interesting middle-of-the-order target. Again, there's much more to come on these topics, including updates on the prospect names you might hear most and the more creative possibilities out there. For now, jump into the comments and let us know what you want to see the Brewers emphasize and prioritize as they gear up for an NL Central title run. View full article
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Key Team Needs The Brewers' infamously anemic offense didn't do much to inspire new confidence, even during a triumphant weekend to open the second half. They scored just eight total runs, against a team who couldn't even line up three respectable starting pitchers coming out of the All-Star break. Harvey's Wallbangers they ain't, and that's not going to change, but Milwaukee badly needs a bat. Finding the position at which to make an upgrade got a bit easier, although in an unhappy way, when Brian Anderson went on the injured list this weekend with a strain in his lower back. Rowdy Tellez also looks to be sidelined for a while, after breaking his finger shagging flies on Saturday. That makes it easy to picture adding a hitter at either infield corner, in right field, or at designated hitter, and at the moment, none of Brice Turange, Andruw Monasterio, and Owen Miller are foreclosing the possibility of doing better at second base. All things considered, Turang's and Miller's gloves make it worth leaving the middle infield alone, but the Brewers will be listening even on players who would slot in there. No contender is ever fully satisfied with its pitching staff, of course, and with uncertainty still hanging over Brandon Woodruff's recovery from the injury that shelved him in April, the Brewers could look into help in their starting rotation. Given the sheer number of guys they already have to fill out the rotation and their depth, however, it feels much more likely that they pursue an extra relief arm, unless a starter controllable beyond 2024 unexpectedly hits the market. Likely Sellers Thanks to the ever-expanding playoff field and format, it's still hard to tell exactly who will be buying and selling, and how aggressively they might do so. There's little question about a fistful of teams, however, because they've collapsed so thoroughly as to be virtually eliminated long ago. That group includes the Oakland Athletics, the Kansas City Royals, the Detroit Tigers, the Chicago White Sox, the Washington Nationals, the Colorado Rockies, and the St. Louis Cardinals. It's possible that the Chicago Cubs, the Pittsburgh Pirates, the New York Mets, the Boston Red Sox, the San Diego Padres, the Seattle Mariners, and the Los Angeles Angels could join and double those ranks, though. A Fast Survey of Targets In the coming days, we'll have lots of breakdowns of specific trade candidates and rumors, and we'll break down the positional possibilities. Right off the bat, though, here are a half-dozen hitters from the teams above who make superficially solid matches with the Brewers' needs. Jeimer Candelario, the third baseman of whom the Nationals made a reclamation project this winter, has had a solid year at the plate and in the field. He's still young, though he'll hit free agency at the end of the season, and the bruised thumb that sidelined him this weekend doesn't seem terribly serious. Eloy Jimenez is under contract with the White Sox through the end of next season, and then they hold two club options on him. That could make it hard to trade for him, but the power upside in his right-handed bat is hard to overlook. Mets outfielder Mark Canha also has an affordable club option, for 2024. The Mets need a shakeup, though, and Canha's approach (on-base skills aplenty, but limited power) could be a nice counterbalance in the middle of the Brewers' lineup. While the complexities of any intradivisional deal might thwart this one, Paul Goldschmidt is an excellent potential fit for the first base void that has so hampered the team. After a stout 2022, A's first baseman and outfielder Seth Brown has had a nightmarish 2023. Buying him now would feel eerily similar to snapping up Tellez a few years ago, though. Teoscar Hernandez hasn't been the star slugger he was last year with the Blue Jays, but the Mariners' unfriendly home park might be part of the problem. Either way, he'd be another interesting middle-of-the-order target. Again, there's much more to come on these topics, including updates on the prospect names you might hear most and the more creative possibilities out there. For now, jump into the comments and let us know what you want to see the Brewers emphasize and prioritize as they gear up for an NL Central title run.
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With the first three pitches, Devin Williams dotted the outer edge of the plate with fastballs. One was too high, but the other two were called strikes--much to the consternation of the Reds dugout. They were great pitches, though, and with McLain in a 1-2 hole, Williams was then able to throw his screwball over the inner edge and catch the rookie looking outside, completing the strikeout with a whiff. At Baseball Savant, where MLB keeps its neatest but nerdiest numbers, there are multiple ways to slice and dice the strike zone. One of them is a subdivision that essentially consists of concentric rectangles. There are four categories: Waste, Chase, Shadow, and Heart. Waste pitches, in the outermost rectangle, are either total misfires or attempts by the pitcher just to set up future offerings. Only Javier Baez-type hitters ever really engage with them. Chase pitches are a bit closer, but still clearly outside the strike zone, and the hitter just needs to identify them and lay off. The two innermost rectangles in the chart are Shadow and Heart. The Shadow category rings the edges of the strike zone on all sides. It's where pitchers most want to live, because doing so will force hitters to swing more often but rarely result in hard contact. The danger, or one of the dangers, is in a pitch meandering into the Heart zone, which is just what it sounds like: the meaty part of the strike zone, where the league's average exit velocity is 93 miles per hour and their average launch angle is 15 degrees. By contrast, batted balls in the Shadow zone average 86.4 miles per hour. There's a difference of over .100 in expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) between the two regions. It's vital, then, to be able to work in the Shadow region without also spending too much time in the Heart. In one sense, this is the difference between control and command, expressed quantitatively. Teams who fill up the Chase and Waste areas will walk too many hitters, or end up behind in counts and have to use too much of the plate eventually. Those who lean too far toward Heart when they're around the zone will get hammered. You have to be able to work within the zone, but also expand it--to avoid damage, but still get strikes. The Brewers are, perhaps, the masters of this craft for 2023. On the year, only the Cubs and Mets have thrown fewer pitches in the Heart than has the Crew. Yet, only the Dodgers, Tigers, and Twins have thrown more of their pitches in the Shadow zone. Pain in broad strokes (by combining Shadow and Heart into a category, and consolidating Chase and Waste into another), and the Brewers look average. They spend the 18th-most time around the zone and 15th-most time well beyond it. When you break it down, though, they're clearly more adept than almost anyone at working the edges. No team has allowed a lower percentage of opponents' balls in play on pitches in the Heart this year than the Brewers. That's why they've been so devastatingly effective against the Reds. Cincinnati is the offense that has had the highest percentage of their batted balls on Heart pitches this year. It would be unfairly reductionist to say that the Reds are just mistake hitters, but they rely on pitchers eventually caving to their pressure and throwing them something very hittable. Because the Brewers avoid that as assiduously as anyone in baseball, and also avoid veering too far the other way and putting the Reds' speedy runners on base for free, they've frustrated that approach. This is a credit to everyone involved in the process, from the pitchers themselves, to pitching coach Chris Hook and the overall pitching infrastructure the team has assembled, to the catchers who set the targets and help the pitchers find the (literal and figurative) edges this way. It's not as easy as overpowering hitters with 102 down the gut, but it's much more repeatable than that is, and it's easier to find pitchers who can do it. At a certain point, it becomes a culture within the pitching staff, and then everything spirals in a good direction. Let's mix and match the numbers one more time, to clarify what we're saying here. Combine Shadow and Chase into a single category containing (on average) the most valuable pitches--the ones hitters might swing at, but on which they can't hurt you--and the Brewers trail only the Rangers and the Tigers in the share of their pitches that end up there. Because the Brewers' hurlers have the Tigers' beat on sheer stuff, it's fair to say that the only pitching staff executing better than Milwaukee's this season is that of the AL West-leading Rangers. It's hardly news that, if Craig Counsell and company win the NL Central, it will be mostly thanks to the pitching staff. Still, this is an illuminating look at the ways in which they've effected that dominance.

