BrewerFan

Just read up on the guys ranked ~20-30. Then when we announce we signed 2-3 of them, you'll be ahead of the curve... But seriously, I thought we were really early on one guy. A SS, Diego...something? I might be a year early, but I thought someone posted on here that we'd agreed to a deal with a kid who was either 14 or just turned 15.

Yeah, for a guy 4 years away from being a FA, that's a pretty reasonable number. Obviously, not everyone accepts the deal, but 80M GTD at a position that takes quite a toll on one's health? That seems pretty accurate. We also have one of the elite catching prospects in the game in AA. So the extension serves two purposes in my mind. You can keep both, DH William more often, have them each play ~130 games(especially if Quero continues to hit well). OR...while it's premature now, locking Contreras up makes him more appealing in a trade if he keeps hitting.

It could be even worse than that. Could be a lacerated liver, kidney and internal bleeding. I want tough guys on the team, but if it's head, neck, or something in your chest/stomach(organs)...get that checked out. You wanna play through a broken hand, a dislocated shoulder that you come back from early, a sprained ankle, cool. But nobody wants to see 23-year-old kids suffering injuries to their internal organs or repeated concussions for entertainment.

Ok...I'll hold your hand as we walk you through this. And WHO did they play in the WS? Was it the team that was compared to the '27 Yankees? The powerhouse Dodgers? Or was it the team that won 84 games, swept the Dodgers and finished ONE spot ahead of the Brewers and their..."dumpster" lineup in runs scored?

Sounds like it's pretty bad. And people were questioning his toughness as he's missed some time this year(I thought mostly due to head injuries which is not really something he can prevent). But definitely scary. https://packerswire.usatoday.com/2023/11/21/packers-te-luke-musgrave-hospitalized-with-significant-abdomen-injury/

He did do that, but he also went back to different-looking fronts. We had one where you had 4 linemen with their hand in the dirt(IIRC it was Clark, Brooks, Wyatt, Van Ness), and then Gary standing up, Quay outside of him and they got almost immediate pressure. It looked SO similar to what the Chiefs were doing last night(what they always do) that forces the OL to identify who they're going to block and gives Clark or Wyatt or Gary a 1 on 1, it was a HUGE jump from Barry. I still hope they get rid of him because I just don't think he's got the guts to do that consistently and he wants to play it conservative ala Vic Fangio, sit back in coverage and we have too much talent to play like that. What's the point of Alexander and Stokes and now Valentine who everyone has raved about since camp, these guys who thrive in man coverage and then these pass rushers who can win 1 on 1 if you're going to try and play it like we did with Ed Donatell with limited athleticism and then Sharper on the backend who took a lot of chances and rely on getting turnovers.

What they're attempting to do is have the NT eat up two blockers. That's one of his core principles. The DEs are supposed to do the same if a double is coming, otherwise just maintain their gap. But it should go without saying, you don't have your NT JUMPING away from the strong side(and quite obviously the play side as Slaton does here) when your DEs are slanting to the strong side, just so he can get a piece of the center so he can't get up to the LBer. It's also just silly. I'm pretty sure these are all designed to stop the run, but he's slanting to the strong side, and then weak side two other times.

No, the primary goal of particular slants is not to free up pass rushers, they're to free up your LBers and clog up the OL. This has become even more true with the expansion of the ZBS. If you're slanting to the strong side, it completely throws off each OL responsibility, crosses the face of the OL and now they can't climb to the next level whereas your LBers can come in and fill. If you wanted to argue that stunts are more for pass rushing...I think you'd probably be right...though even there you have specific run stunts. That said, I may not completely agree with your take on that, I think you'd have to be a fool to not agree with the underlying point, it's a schematic problem. A 3-4 should make life so much easier on LBers. MLF got all pissy, but he's right, when you're playing in a "Nickel," with 2 OLBers in our system, you're really playing with 4 DL. Gary was a 3 tech in College, Van Ness or Smith are both bigger or as big as most 4-3 DEs. So EVEN when you play a 4 man front on a 'and-goal' situation, you should have enough DL, assuming they maintain gap integrity to let your LBers come up and fill the holes. Joe Barry is just bad across the board. His philosophy when it comes to the DL, as he's explained it has been bad since he got here and makes drafting the likes of Wyatt, Wooden, Brooks...even signing Clark rather pointless. You could save 30M and a at least a 1st by just going out and drafting a bunch of big Howard Green-type run stuffers. The only consistent theme across his defense is a passive, play it safe type ideology. Don't want penetrating DL, you want them to play 2 gap(which is killing Wyatt). You play straight up with your backers constantly...which is fine. And your DBs are always playing this C3/C4 coverage where guys have 10 yards of cushion every play. I try and make the steal man arguments for these coaches as there's so much that goes into all these sports, it's often hard to see if the problem is actually coaching or talent(see the Brewers hitting coaches). There is not one to be made with Barry. He's bad, his scheme is bad. It's passive despite having ample talent. We play on our heels despite drafting bigger, aggressive athletes and they're supposed to sit back and wait. Give Belichick this defense, it's top3. Give Tomlin this D, top 3. Give Florres this defense it's top3 . Let me run this defense and it's not any worse! I'm just sitting in a cover 1 man all game long, I'm playing a 4-3 front(nickel front with a 3rd safety who's bigger and more physical) on passing downs and just a base 3-4 on short yardage. That's 5 DL, they can all play single gap, get up field, start hitting guys in the backfield and then you have your LBers to come clean things up or safeties. That's an overly simplistic idea that smart OCs would pick apart and I'm still confident it'd be better than Barry.

Yes, I get it was more an...ancillary observation and not actually a rationale for trading him. It does make me wonder what the best IFA class ever has been. Doing the minimal work, I found an interesting article. https://rogermunter.substack.com/p/whos-had-the-greatest-international

Sure...or they're just more set at those positions and they need the 40-man roster spot more. He was just at the AZF League for everyone to see, so I'll trust the Brewers scouts. I doubt they're expecting his breakout to translate into a 1st division starter, but perhaps a versatile utility player with some pop. That'd be plenty for me.

Sure...seems like we've got a log jam of SS/2B prospects in A and HiA and Pratt, Bitonti just add to that. Guilarte, Areinamo, O'Rae, Brown Jr(AA probably), and then Ereu, Baez and Di Turi. I get there's some 3B in there and again, Brown is likely ticketed for AA along with Adams. Just looking at Dunn's numbers don't inspire a ton of confidence. Guys who break out at 25...meh, but the Brewers have earned the benefit of the doubt when it comes to player evaluation. Not sure this is the strongest argument😅 But it's good enough for this particular trade. (Just kills me to think about all that money we're wasting in LA when we could be adding a MRP in Free Agency!)

I'm not sure how much stock to put into these analytics for a 2nd year WRer given ALL the other things that play into them. Love's accuracy, he has to get the ball to him on time, the OL, and the WRers in this offense aren't making the right reads. I remember Benkert showing a team(IIRC the Raiders) playing Cover4 and all 4 Packers receivers were running deeper routes, but you paused it, and as they were ~10 yards downfield, the DBs were still back-peddling, all 4 yards at least from a Packers WRer and nobody broke off their route while Love's in the backfield under pressure. Just a simple dig there would have been an easy completion and is supposed to be an option for the WRers if you're facing that type of umbrella coverage, but nobody made that read. So it's every possible issue you could have. It feels like pretty much everyone's going to have really poor grades save for...Musgrave and Tom. Football is so dependent on the other 10 guys...unless you're doing a PFF play-by-play grading(even those tend to be flawed as Love and Fields each got a negative grade in Week 1 where Fields fumbled and lost it while Love fumbled, picked it up and throw a 50-yard completion to Musgrave). But Doubs seems to ME like he should be the James Jones of this group. He should be the reliable #3 option(maybe 4th) and really excel in that role. We just don't know what Reed, Wicks, Watson...Heath(I like him quite a bit)...who knows what any of them are? Watson is a massively talented player who seems constantly injured, but also very raw. Reed has been impressive. I think he's a #2. Despite my undying love for the Fighting Irish' left Tackle, Harrison Jr would be so hard to pass up. I don't think that's a decision they'll have to make though.

Yeah, when we went from Favre(the team he said was the most talented group he'd ever had) and then Rodgers. I'd guess '07, '08, in that era. But again, even then you had vets like Henderson, Driver, Tauscher, Clifton...etc...

Corum is rated 111th and generally viewed as a 4th because...for no good reason he went back for another year of wear and tear at Michigan and he's not a guy you want to sign to an extension. He's got a lot of mileage...and I guess he's smaller. But he's thick, he is so similar to Jones in terms of patience, finding the holes, not looking to bounce everything, but he's capable of doing so and while they call him a "smaller back," why is a 6' 220 pound back considered a power back, but a 5'8 212 pound back not? He's more hard to bring down. I'm a huge fan of Emanuel Wilson. He's so quick and despite the limited carries, he's so patient. And he's a big, physical runner. I think he's going to be a 1,000 yard rusher(and better than Dillon right now). Curtis Samuel is a guy I've beaten the drums for when MLF came(whenever he was a FA last so probably after Tyler Ervin). I thought he'd be ideal as a RB/WRer hybrid. Been better at WRer than I expected, not used as much out of the backfield. That's where I LOVE that Corley. He's a RB who plays WRer. Another option as a FA, is Antonio Gibson. I think he costs 3/15 maybe. Criminally underused in Washington(the best run team in the league). With regard to Evans, is he worth 20M a year? That and more. He should probably get a deal close to Gary's with more GTD money from a team that wants to/can compete next year. I could see the Cards, with ALL their draft equity, picking up Harrison Jr, they're in a perfect spot to pick the 3rd best OT(which varies greatly) and then they can grab Henderson or whomever they like in the 2nd, then focus on the defense. That is the type of team that I think should sign Evans. I'd prefer we take another year, let Bakh, Clark, the dead cap expire, and then go into '25 with ~120M. I'd trade Jones, Smith...even Campbell depending on the draft equity. I'm thinking you could get a 5th, 7th and if Campbell comes back and plays well and someone who needs a MLBer(like Buffalo) is interested in a 4th. I know that's a bit counterintuitive to the veteran presence we need, but I'm talking about at WRer, not just anywhere. Van Jefferson isn't meant to be a #1 or #2 or really anymore than a depth piece, but he's a good leader and he's played in the system before. I do think these guys should figure it out with another year, but I think he'd help. Now in 2025 after you've had Alt, hopefully another OT such as Mims/Fuaga on the OL(though I realize that's my pipe dream and we'll likely just keep Tom there), you add a guy like Bucky Irvin(he's a 2nd/3rd with his speed); Black Corum, a big blocking TE(Jalin Conyers late on day 3 would be great)...and you have given Love all he needs and you get a more clear picture of what he is. At THAT point, you also have a better idea of what FA needs you have, if you need to pay Love or move off of him. If you are going to step into FA, there are a couple positions I'd look at. Safeties. Budda Baker is a FA I believe, Kyle Dugger, a 6'2 versatile safety(I'm always skeptical of guys who thrive under Belichick), Antonio Winfield, Jeremy Chinn and Xavier McKinney are two guys who've lost a lot of value and could be good fits in very different ways. So that's a wide range from a massive FA contract for a safety, which tend to be underpaid, but Baker is the type of leader you always want, same with Winfield, but he's more of a coverage guy and just a tough, undersized player JUST like his Dad. Chinn is more of a SS, though he lost his starting job, we've seen glimpses and McKinney was really on the ascent before the Giants hired Wink. We'd need to have the right DC to use him and play to his strengths. WRer-Evans is going to have his...10th straight 1000 yard season. He's a HOFer, he's a jump ball machine. But he feels like he's off our time frame and you're going to be spending all your FA money or most of it on a guy who's going to be 31 next year. Tee Higgins is a FA who's likely not re-signing with Cincy as they set records on Burrow and ***Also, Wirfs is a FA...and while Tampa is almost certainly going to aggressively try and sign him, he had void years, so they can't tag him, he's a guy I'd break the bank for...but again, why would TB let him go. The only other FA is Christian Wilkens. You could sign him to the 4/90 million deal you'd give to Clark, but he has 4 fewer years in the NFL and I think fits the scheme a bit better. So Connor Williams or Van Jefferson for relatively cheap(though Williams would be a huge upgrade at C). A number of safeties who are paid almost like RBs in a draft class with good safeties. Think I'd rather sign one than use the 40th pick on a question mark(even if Nubin is a really nice player). Long shots-Tee, Evans REAL long shots-Wilkins(though Miami is so far over the cap...that's possible). As likely to become FAs as Gary is to be traded this off-season, Wirfs. But again, I want to see this offense with another year before spending a bunch on players to push us over the top when Love MAY be our anchor. I don't know or think he is, but...he could be. So '25 would be a better target IMO).

Just going off the opening day roster, they were 21st last year, and 15th the year before. https://www.phillyvoice.com/ranking-nfl-teams-age-after-53-man-cutdowns-2022-edition/ But even that is skewed. We're talking about our offense. We have the youngest offense in HISTORY(per Bill Barnwell). We've had young rosters before, I'd guess the last time it was #1 would be the early Rodgers days, but we still had Driver, Pickett, Woodson...Rodgers was the man, Nick Collins, good leadership. But you don't need to work as a unit nearly as much on defense as you do on offense. Your OL has to pass off stunts, your WRer needs to break at exactly the right time as the WRer is breaking out of his cut AS the ball is being thrown....so it should be there when he's looking the opposite way. This is NOT a feature of the system, this is absolutely a bug. Edit-Article about Packers youth; And I wasn't screaming for a veteran WRer (just the opposite). I was good with Marcedes Lewis to help in pass pro, but...in retrospect, it may have helped. Even Cobb to be honest. https://www.phillyvoice.com/ranking-nfl-teams-age-after-53-man-cutdowns-2022-edition/

If Love holds it for another split second, I think Love can get the ball to Reed who's gotten loose to the pylon. I think the plan was for Watson to run a dig there and try and find a crease where he can fight his way into the endzone...I guess. But I don't know what Watson is running and if the WRer doesn't do what the QB expects, it looks even worse.

He's FAR more athletic than MVS. More versatile and dynamic. But he ran fewer routes than anyone drafted from OSU or Alabama( in the last couple years from HS to College). I don't think this is a Davante like situation where he breaks out in year 3 and become a true #1, but I think he's more than just a deep threat.

With this same exact group of receivers? Even then I think the 4 winnable games they lost, we win with Rodgers. But we're no closer to the SB and...still have a litany of future issues(including massive cap issues we would have to cross over the next 2 years...also, no Reed...or is it Musgrave. One of the two.

I believe we're 6/40 and 48 after the weekend for what it's worth. That win vs the Rams killed us! Only half kidding. I agree...mostly. You can see the talent on this team, I KNOW Jordan Love has the physical talent to be an All Pro. I also know Trey Lance does, so that's just one component. That throw to Watson that was picked, didn't HATE that. The last play...what in the hell are the WRers doing. Reed was actually breaking for the pylon and got free just as Love is letting it go, but what's the move there? Watson crosses in front of the DBs face? Still, saw some big time throws, some drops, some misses. As for the draft- I could not be more on board with Alt. I've watched almost every ND game this year and Alt reminds me of Tyron Smith. He just moves so effortlessly in both pass pro and run blocking. He's pretty nasty and he's faced a few guys who are projected to go high in the draft and he completely stones them. I actually think their RT will be a star in the NFL as well. Henderson and Nubin are nice players, but I don't think one OL is enough. Not with JRJ and Yosh both set to be FAs and...I'd guess both get 7-8M AAV. The thing that stands out watching someone like Mike Wahle or Kurt Benkert go through the All-22 breakdown or just watching it...how often we're just sooo close to a big play, but there's one mistake. I don't disagree with your analysis of needs, but I think rather than just going OT, S, RB, we should focus our attention on the OL and put off the other needs as they're easier to fill. Go all in on the OL, give Love one more year(a vet wide receiver makes a lot of sense...Evans is probably gonna cost 20M a year or more, so not sure about him, BUT Van Jefferson from the Rams, someone who's spent time in this system, wouldn't take a lot of snaps, but would be a very steady vet, I'd be all on board with that or Curtis Samuel, a Deebo type RB/WRer hybrid almost), but SOME vet absolutely makes sense...and this is probably naive, but man, I'd LOVE to get Donald Driver on this teams staff to work with the WRers. I don't know if he's interested in coaching, but...that'd be great to see all around move. But what I'd do(for the 20th time) is use the 1st and 2nd rds on the OL. Just the type of depth that's available, that's rare. IF you think Mims is a Pro-Bowl RT or in this hypothetical, Fuaga fell to #22 and I could take 2 2nds to move up after adding a 2nd moving down one spot),..either way, take your 2nd rd picks and move back up for another OT and your set. Blake Corum, the RB from Kentucky, Davis, Brooks from UT, lots of really good, versatile backs on day 3 or late on day 2. Blake Watson is a guy who's not as agile as Antonio Gibson, but has a similar skill set. I was a fan of Gibson when he came out...but figured there's no way we'd draft a back that high(we got Dillon). I'll also add we don't need one guy who come in and wears down the defense. Maybe Braelon Allen is there in the 4th and that's a steal, but I'd rather have 3 guys with great vision, and quickness and who run that outside zone well than one smaller back and then the old "change of pace." Just using the NFL mock draft simulator, this is what I'd love; It's just a silly little mock. Alt and Fashanu were on the board, the Rams moved up and added a 2nd, I traded down from that...all that is a bit beside the point. This gives you a Joe Thomas-like LT, a mauling and vastly underrated RT(who could play LT). Frees Tom up to play C. Alt+Fuaga is a dream. Not as sexy as Harrison Jr, but...every big as effective. Corley is a RB who plays WRer. We could use him like SF uses Deebo. Williams is a 6'5 220LB safety who and covers ground(a bit redundant with Hicks). Mondon and Bell are two guys who are just ideal fits. Bell replaces Degura and is what we hoped he'd be. He's a 6'3 Delanie Walker-type H-Back. Not the blocker, but he's a willing blocker. Mondon is a 5 star recruit who filled in for Walker and jumps off the screen when you watch UGAs defense. Maybe use him as a 3rd LBer for a year before you move offf Campbell. He'd be a STs ace(I think he'll end up a 2nd after running in the 4.4-4.5 range at 6'3 230, but as of now, he's a mid 4th. Corum reminds me of Jones. He's had a torn ACL and he's gotten beaten up, but he's a really good back. ----BUT the takeaway is get two OTs first. I get we(fans) generally don't like trading up, but I think it's worth it in this case. After the first two picks, you could argue for 50 guys and these rankings are going to shuffle dramatically. But if you can really fix 3 OL spots for the next decade, do it. Next year the WRers grow a bit, you assume the chemistry improves. Etiher Love makes a big jump...or he doesn't. If he doesn't, you go up and get Drew Allar when the draft is in Lambeau in '25. If he does improve, then you should be competitive by then.

Yeah, but we're not the youngest or among the youngest every year. Particularly among offensive personnel where continuity is the most important. We're younger on offense than...I can ever remember this team being. 2 players on our 3 deep who are not on rookie deals. Aaron Jones and Jenkins(year 1 of his extension). That's absolutely a bug and NOT a feature.

🤣😅😂 Michael Lorenzen went for the 5th and 20th prospect in the Phillies' very solid farm system, but Corbin Burnes won't go for a team's own top 10 prospects!!! Right. I don't like speaking in absolutes...but I am absolutely positive than barring some industrial accident in which Burnes right arm gets injured over the next couple months, juuust about every team(if not literally every team) is going to offer multiple of their own top 10 prospects for Burnes. We just saw a trade deadline in which fringe starters were traded for players ranked in the top 10 of good farm systems. I'd like to see the disappointing returns, but I don't think they'll actually come. HiA is kinda the sweet spot for starting pitching. AA and they're a call away. Brock Porter type arms. The Rangers and Phills were two teams I thought would be the best fits. Teams that had spent big recently...had come close, but failed to get over the top. The Rangers are not in that group any longer, and they should hope to have deGrom back, so maybe they're not as interested(or maybe repeating makes them just as interested, who can say). But both teams have pitchers who are are a year or two away, who have top-of-the-rotation stuff. The Dodgers make a lot of sense, but they self-scout so well and they don't ever seem to panic, so I don't know if that's the best possible deal.

Yes. He had THREE years of team control. That's the future. You're doing your own math to argue otherwise, but no, if you are "really optimistic," you're better than "maybe .500 ish," in 2025. You created this strawman based on your estimation of our chances and then came up with this supposition that we're holding Peralta for 2 years(which we apparently can't compete during) in the hopes you can "ride him to FA trying to compete in 2026? We'll be trying to compete in '24 and '25. It's an incredibly bad faith argument to frame it in your own lens and then argue vs that particular lens.

I think he'll get more than Yelich has and I think he'll be longer. 7/180, MAYBE 8/210. And I think it'll be awful. Jason Heyward bad. So good defensively, maybe some occasional flashes, but generally a poor deal.

He's worked there during camp and pre-season, but no, not a ton of snaps. But I think it's something you should at least take a look at before he hits Free Agency. I don't really see the downside. Myers is a very below-average Center. Maybe Runyan is a better C, or maybe he's not. You're probably(almost definitely) not going anywhere this year despite being just a game out of the last playoff spot. So shuffle the deck a bit, see if you can find something that may work better for next year. Most likely you let Runyan and Yosh walk in free agency, but maybe he excels at Center like Connor Williams who turned into a better Center than a Guard.

That'd certainly be going all in for the Os. Then we can sign both Chourio and Holliday for 10/150M extensions right away...re-create the '82 Brewers of Young/Molitor. That'd be fun, right! I'm guessing Baltimore probably doesn't consider that trade for very long, but it'd certainly be fun #3/4 combo in the future with Chourio and Holliday at SS/CF! Burnes+Williams+Adames is an overpay...per the MLB trade value site(which is another reason why that doesn't need to be consulted). Just an aside, has any team ever had two prospects the caliber of Chourio and Holliday on the same team in the same minor league system?