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9/18-9/27/12: the road trip crucible


TooLiveBrew

I didn't want to post this in the optimism thread, & couldn't find an old thread that I felt was relevant, so I started this one.

 

The Brewers obviously have a three-game set this weekend with NYM, and play their final six regular season games at home v. HOU & SDP... so not much to complain about in terms of strength of schedule on the front & back ends of the remaining games.

 

But sandwiched in-between, and beginning after the last off-day of the season, is a ten day/ten game roadtrip: PIT (3), WAS (4), CIN (3). To borrow from TH, it's "big boy time."

 

So what expectations do BF.netters have for this road trip? What do you think the Brewers should be expected to do, and what will they need to do to stay in the playoff hunt?

 

What about some good tidbits about the opponents -- which players are out or struggling? Of which players should the Brewers be wary? Any guesses as to which SPs they'll face?

 

Talk amongst yourselves

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Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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I guess I consider should and need the same thing so I think they need/should go 7-3 to stay in the playoff picture but will go 5-5.

Yeah, I realized that those words would likely be synonymous at this point for many. :)

 

I'm not really sure myself what my expectations are yet. I think this road trip for me will feel like letting that last Plinko chip drop.

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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I'm trying to take this ride one series at a time. Meaning that I wouldn't be surprised if we dropped 2 out of 3 against the crappy Mets. Wouldn't surprise me one bit.

 

Sorry... I really do enjoy what's going on here and I'm not usually a downer... but we could fall out of this thing at any given moment. Let's take at least 2 of these home games first and worry about the rest later!

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There are only 3 teams with worse NL road records than teh Brewers. Rockies, Cubs and Astros. They're seemingly on a roll right now, but their road futility to date would only underscore any accomplishments they can muster.

 

I'm just hanging on to the old "one at a time" cliche and watching every day.

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I'm saying that if the Brewers win today (Sunday), and the Cardinals lose today, (leaving the Crew 1 back from the Cards in the loss column, the only one that matters when chasing, and 2 back from the Dodgers), then the Brewers can go 6-4 and have a reasonable shot with the cupcakes at the end of the season at home. But, if the Brewers end up more than 2 back in the loss column of the leader(s) at the end of today, they have to go 8-2 most likely. We'll see though.
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If the Brewers need to sweep two teams in a row to make 6-4 on the road trip acceptable, they obviously need to go 7-3. Even if you give the Brewers a 65% chance of winning each of those last 6 games, that's an 8% chance of a double sweep. I don't see how 6-4 gives the Brewers any reasonable chance.

 

And the loss column is the only thing that matters when you are only concerned with being mathematically eliminated. I am currently concerned about coming up with a reasonable scenario that could get the Brewers into the one game playoff, not some virtually impossible one.

 

Win today, 7-3 road trip, 5-1 home trip is still only 86 wins. At best, I would think that would earn the Brewers a tie of the 2nd wildcard spot, effectively making the Brewers need to play too play-in games to get to the real playoffs.

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The good news is that the Reds and Nationals are pretty much assured of winning their respective divisions.

 

The bad news is that there definitely will still be a battle for seeding going on.

 

St. Louis' schedule is worrisome to me. They are loaded with cupcakes from here on out until the last six games. Then they get the Nationals and Reds at the perfect time when they probably won't be playing for much if anything.

 

I'll definitely be rooting for the Dodgers today.

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well, I'm pretty sure Brandon Phillips will have something to say about that if the Cardinals are still in jeopardy regarding their playoff spot. My money is on Phillips telling Dusty that they should be playing all out to knock those jokers out of the playoffs.

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I think they need to go 6-4 and with the way things are going, that should be attainable. Split with the Nats, win the other two series and the Brewers should be within striking distance for the final home stand.

 

A 6-4 road trip means a 4-2 home stand still only gets them 84 wins. Not a very good chance 84 wins gets you even a share of the 2nd wildcard spot. Without running the numbers, I have to believe a 7-3 or better road trip is more likely than a 5-1 or better home stand.

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The Brewers still have a lot of work left to do. I agree with rluzinski, they really need to go 7-3 on this road trip to have a legitimate shot. Anything lower and they will probably stay even with the Cardinals or lose ground, which will still leave them with playoff odds of 10% or less going into the final 6 games.

 

The only team that the Brewers can take care of themselves is the Pirates, and most do not consider them to be a threat anyway. The Brewers don't control their own destiny and are highly dependent on the Cardinals to lose some easy games that they should win. They also need to hope that the Dodgers continue to play at or below .500 ball.

 

The more optimistic perspective is that if the Brewers keep at the pace they have been going at for the last month (winning 3 out of every 4 games), they will get to 85 or 86 wins and have a decent shot at forcing a 1-game playoff.

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I think they need to go 6-4 and with the way things are going, that should be attainable. Split with the Nats, win the other two series and the Brewers should be within striking distance for the final home stand.

 

A 6-4 road trip means a 4-2 home stand still only gets them 84 wins. Not a very good chance 84 wins gets you even a share of the 2nd wildcard spot. Without running the numbers, I have to believe a 7-3 or better road trip is more likely than a 5-1 or better home stand.

 

I gotta disagree with this. I think a 5-1 homestand to finish the season is very feasible, given the competition. We just finished this last homestand 5-1. I see no reason we can't sweep against either the Astros or Padres and take 2 of 3 against the other. Not guaranteeing it or anything, just thinking there's a better chance of that than 7-3 on the road against the top 2 teams in the NL and the Pirates.

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I think we are vastly over estimating how the cardinals and dodgers are playing right now. Both look nearly as dead in the water as the pirates. Call me crazy if you wish but I don't believe the 2nd place finisher in this 2nd wild card spot will win 85 games. Unless carpenter is using something mcgwire gave him and he throws three shut outs... which wouldn't surprise me.
"Did I ever tell you how I became a Postman Abby? I don't know if you'd laugh or cry"-The Postman
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The Cards get to play the Cubs and Astros 9 more times this year. If they somehow win less than 86 games I will be shocked. It would be a huge meltdown for them not to win atleast 6 of those games. LAD I could see falling back; but I just can't envision the Cards not just beating up on those two teams and making it hard for the Brewers to make up ground.
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The Cards get to play the Cubs and Astros 9 more times this year. If they somehow win less than 86 games I will be shocked. It would be a huge meltdown for them not to win atleast 6 of those games. LAD I could see falling back; but I just can't envision the Cards not just beating up on those two teams and making it hard for the Brewers to make up ground.

 

I just can't see the cardinals beating even these teams. Wainwright is toast, beltran is reverting to his mets days, furcal and berkmann are done... They basically have lohse and holiday. At the same time the cubs and astros seem to be loving the spoiler role. I can't imagine the cardinals going more than 7-8. Call it skewed logic or payback for all the lucky years, I see the cards finally getting theirs.

"Did I ever tell you how I became a Postman Abby? I don't know if you'd laugh or cry"-The Postman
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