Wade Miley Eat Crow Thread

[And That]

Wade Miley is frankly an embarrassment. I can’t believe he’s being given start after start. What kind of people are running this baseball team.

[wallus]

This is about the time a thread like this should have shown up, not months ago.

[bigredrobbo]

This is about the time a thread like this should have shown up, not months ago.

 

The crow needs time to age, for maximum flavor?

[Mr Southpaw]

This is about the time a thread like this should have shown up, not months ago.

 

I started this thread and saw his some signs of effectiveness almost immediately and did not need to be further convinced. He is what he is and needs to be accurate to be effective. As long as he is healthy and accurate, he should be fairly successful.

 

Pitching is sometimes referred to "as an art form". If that is true, he needs to be an artist with a little athleticism not and athlete with a little artism.

[Ennder]

This isn't in any way sustainable though. This is still at best a 3.5 era guy right now, just one with about 50 points of BABIP luck according to xStats. They think the HR suppression has been for real though which is very nice, that would be a completely new skill for him.

[torts]

This isn't in any way sustainable though. This is still at best a 3.5 era guy right now, just one with about 50 points of BABIP luck according to xStats. They think the HR suppression has been for real though which is very nice, that would be a completely new skill for him.

 

a 3.5 ERA guy is still better than pretty much our entire rotation, so...

[MrTPlush]

I don’t remember specifically when this was started, but you can’t make a conclusion after a few games.

 

Anyone can look effective for a few starts...heck even half a year and then turn into a pumpkin.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Miley probably is what the advanced metrics say he is. He's probably an average-ish 3.5 to 4 era guy. That's fine but at some point the results matter. Right now, the results matter and the results he's given us are barely above a 2 era, and that has been huge for the 60-plus Innings he's thrown for us.

 

I certainly wouldn't go into next year and expect Miley to be a cy young candidate. But sometimes it's nice to look at a guy who for a stretch of time is outproducing his talent level, and just saying wow that was a nice stretch for that guy. It's especially cool right now, because we really needed this from Miley when other starters have faltered.

[LouisEly]

Advanced metrics are essentially models, and in my industry there is a saying that, "all models are wrong, but some are useful".

 

FIP, IMO, overvalues HRs and Ks and undervalues BBs and GB%. It's a model, and there are always outliers to models - the question is what the standard error is to the model and how many fall outside the standard error.

[pacopete4]

I don’t remember specifically when this was started, but you can’t make a conclusion after a few games. Please make threads like this more often...because long run you will make yourself look silly more often than ahead of the curve.

 

Anyone can look effective for a few starts...heck even half a year and then turn into a pumpkin.

 

[sarcasm]Challenge accepted.[/sarcasm]

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I've really been enjoying this wave Miley has been on. He has a new pitch (cutter) that he is using much more frequently and that has been very effective against RHs. Stunningly so: RH have a 597 OPS against him this year. For his career, RH have a 773 OPS against him. Either that pitch is amazingly effective and has dramatically changed his career or there has been some luck involved. A 266 BAbip says the latter. His HR allowed is also amazing compared to his career. 0.4 HR/9 this year vs 1.0 for his career. Again, I am hoping this is a result of his new pitch or something Derek Johnson has tweeked, but he has a 3.8% HR/Fly Ball ratio that is half his career norm of 7.7% (MLB average is 8.3%).

 

I hope Miley can keep this up as we need him in the playoffs. However, I would not bet on him being able to do this over the long haul. I would not risk giving him a long term contract next year.

[sveumrules]

but you can’t make a conclusion after a few games.

 

A large number of posts on this website represent conclusions drawn from a few games, or in many cases even less than that.

 

Why stop now?

[homer]

Every Brewer starter is out performing their FIP.

[TooLiveBrew]

Every Brewer starter is out performing their FIP.

It's almost like the F in FIP is an important determiner of ERA

[homer]

Miley is inducing more soft contact than previously in his career. His GB/FB ratio is the highest it's ever been and he is not K'ing as many guys. He's basically turning into a different sort of pitcher. Whether that continues or not remains to be seen but I don't think it's all chalked up to luck.

[tigerbrew]

Derek Johnson has turned Miley into a sub 3 era SP, hope he can do the same with Gio Gonzalez. It'd be a great boost to the rotation if that happens.

[Ennder]

Advanced metrics are essentially models, and in my industry there is a saying that, "all models are wrong, but some are useful".

 

FIP, IMO, overvalues HRs and Ks and undervalues BBs and GB%. It's a model, and there are always outliers to models - the question is what the standard error is to the model and how many fall outside the standard error.

 

 

I can't find a pitcher who consistently lives outside of all of the models though. The best he scores on any of the models is in the 3.50 range. ERA takes 500 IP to become a useful measurement of player skill, it is just a really bad stat to judge a pitcher by.

[And That]

The best he scores on any of the models is in the 3.50 range.

Which is still a tremendous asset given cost.

[YungTeeler]

I was in the we're doomed if he ever sees the Majors camp when we signed him so I'll have some dark meat please.

 

 

Seconds please.

[Thurston Fluff]

Miley is inducing more soft contact than previously in his career. His GB/FB ratio is the highest it's ever been and he is not K'ing as many guys. He's basically turning into a different sort of pitcher. Whether that continues or not remains to be seen but I don't think it's all chalked up to luck.

 

When a player hits multiple rough seasons he either keeps doing the same thing and hope for some luck or he changes his approach to become less dependent on luck. Miley chose the latter. While there is some luck to this run, I agree it all can't be attributed to pure luck.

[homer]

Miley is inducing more soft contact than previously in his career. His GB/FB ratio is the highest it's ever been and he is not K'ing as many guys. He's basically turning into a different sort of pitcher. Whether that continues or not remains to be seen but I don't think it's all chalked up to luck.

 

When a player hits multiple rough seasons he either keeps doing the same thing and hope for some luck or he changes his approach to become less dependent on luck. Miley chose the latter. While there is some luck to this run, I agree it all can't be attributed to pure luck.

 

This cutter is new for him too. Never threw anywhere near as many before this season.

[benji]

For the guys who have played high level baseball can you explain what makes a cutter so difficult to hit?

 

 

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[True Blue Brew Crew]

For the guys who have played high level baseball can you explain what makes a cutter so difficult to hit?

 

 

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It's simply a different grip on the baseball while still utilizing the same throwing motion as a pitcher's traditional fastball. It has more spin and dives towards the pitchers glove side. It's a slight change of speed (lower) and typically induces more weak contact since it's diving or tailing action is harder to square up. It deceives batters sitting on a pitchers traditional fastball.

 

The cutter is what made Mariano Rivera a hall of famer despite being all he threw most of the time.

[True Blue Brew Crew]

And since the cutter dives across the plate its an effective pitch to neutralize L/R matchups. A LHP can use it to jam right hand batters and a RHP can jam left hand batters with it.

[benji]

Thanks for the replies

 

 

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