Packers 2022 Discussion Thread

[LouisEly]

27 minutes ago, wallus said:

Thank you for your service DB. No chance we can trade DB instead of cutting him can we?

Bakh?  They'll incur the same $23M cap hit whether they trade or release him.

They didn't extend Jenkins to play LT.

[wallus]

20 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

Bakh?  They'll incur the same $23M cap hit whether they trade or release him.

They didn't extend Jenkins to play LT.

Tom has been great at LT

[Brewcrew82]

Is it really a given we trade or release Bakhtiari? Yes, Tom's been great and the appendectomy has taken him off the field once again, but an appendectomy is a freak thing and Bakhtiari has been a top 10 tackle this year (per PFF). And then there's his relationship with our franchise QB.. With the cap hit being what it is, maybe they just opt for the depth along the O-line, unless they're able to trade Bakhtiari for a higher-end draft pick (unlikely)...

[OldHeidelberg]

12 hours ago, UpandIn said:

I don't think anyone who's a fan of the Star wants to see the Packers in the playoffs. THAT is a team I'm pretty confident we can and would beat again. SF, Buff, Philly, KC...no. But Dallas?

Thinking about it more there is no way the Cowboys lay down and let Wash in the playoffs. That would be like the Vikings letting us win. 

[OldHeidelberg]

59 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Is it really a given we trade or release Bakhtiari? Yes, Tom's been great and the appendectomy has taken him off the field once again, but an appendectomy is a freak thing and Bakhtiari has been a top 10 tackle this year (per PFF). And then there's his relationship with our franchise QB.. With the cap hit being what it is, maybe they just opt for the depth along the O-line, unless they're able to trade Bakhtiari for a higher-end draft pick (unlikely)...

I think it's a given, I think he is due 17 million that isn't guaranteed next season, does anyone think he would get that as a FA? Not me, too many questions about that knee for an aging player. He will get a prove it deal if he wants to play but my guess is he may retire if released. The Packers need to get out from under that deal but it's possible he comes back on a one year deal I guess. 

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, OldHeidelberg said:

I think it's a given, I think he is due 17 million that isn't guaranteed next season, does anyone think he would get that as a FA? Not me, too many questions about that knee for an aging player. He will get a prove it deal if he wants to play but my guess is he may retire if released. The Packers need to get out from under that deal but it's possible he comes back on a one year deal I guess. 

It's a very real possibility for sure, I'm just not convinced it's a given, with how well Bakhtiari has played when he's actually been on the field and the significant cap hit associated with a trade/release. And the appendectomy he's been sidelined with recently is just a freak thing...Maybe Bakhtiari agrees to a paycut to stay with ARod and prove to Packers nation he's still got it? 

[OldHeidelberg]

17 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

It's a very real possibility for sure, I'm just not convinced it's a given, with how well Bakhtiari has played when he's actually been on the field and the significant cap hit associated with a trade/release. And the appendectomy he's been sidelined with recently is just a freak thing...Maybe Bakhtiari agrees to a paycut to stay with ARod and prove to Packers nation he's still got it? 

Sure, if they planned on cutting him post June 1 Bakh taking a pay cut would be just as good as release and resign. I just don't think they are going to roll the dice on paying him 17 million more next season when they don't have to, especially considering their cap situation. It's very possible I am wrong about that number though and some of it is guaranteed. 

[LouisEly]

38 minutes ago, OldHeidelberg said:

I think it's a given, I think he is due 17 million that isn't guaranteed next season, does anyone think he would get that as a FA? Not me, too many questions about that knee for an aging player. He will get a prove it deal if he wants to play but my guess is he may retire if released. The Packers need to get out from under that deal but it's possible he comes back on a one year deal I guess. 

There's a $23M cap hit if they trade or release him, $29M cap hit if they keep him.  For how good he is when he's healthy, I doubt they move on from him to save $6M.  2024 is only a $11.5M cap hit if traded/released, $21.4M cash/cap savings, so I think he's a Packer in 2023 but that's the last year.

[OldHeidelberg]

20 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

There's a $23M cap hit if they trade or release him, $29M cap hit if they keep him.  For how good he is when he's healthy, I doubt they move on from him to save $6M.  2024 is only a $11.5M cap hit if traded/released, $21.4M cash/cap savings, so I think he's a Packer in 2023 but that's the last year.

Or they can release him post June 1 and it's more like $12 vs $29 million in 2023 cap space with that same 11.5 million hit next year. Any way you slice it there is another $17 million paid to keep him next year on that contract and it will hit the cap sometime. That's too much in my mind. That dead money is spent, the additional 17 million isn't yet. I think the Jenkins contract is the writing on the wall here, they will slide him into Bakh's spot in the salary picture.

[LouisEly]

14 minutes ago, OldHeidelberg said:

Or they can release him post June 1 and it's more like $12 vs $29 million in 2023 cap space with that same 11.5 million hit next year. Any way you slice it there is another $17 million paid to keep him next year on that contract and it will hit the cap sometime. That's too much in my mind. That dead money is spent, the additional 17 million isn't yet. I think the Jenkins contract is the writing on the wall here, they will slide him into Bakh's spot in the salary picture.

If they trade/release him post June 1st, they can't spend the money until after June 1st.  Teams have to be under the cap as of the start of the league year (March 15th, 2023 for 2023 league year) so his contract will count towards the cap until June 1st.  Unless they have someone they want to extend or have an agreement to trade for, pretty much all significant free agents will have found a home by then.

[LouisEly]

2 hours ago, wallus said:

Tom has been great at LT

Not last game.  He got bull-rushed into the pocket a few times by the Rams bigger DEs.  Needs to improve his strength.

[CheezWizHed]

I'm guessing Bahk stays for 2023.  For a few reasons:

1. His relationship with Rodgers. If Rogers is back, I'd bet Bahk will also.
2. When healthy he is REALLY good.  I just think they will give him another year to bounce back.
3. $6M really isn't that big of a gain despite our cap issues.  Perhaps he would be open to a reconstruction of his contract?

[OldHeidelberg]

12 minutes ago, LouisEly said:

If they trade/release him post June 1st, they can't spend the money until after June 1st.  Teams have to be under the cap as of the start of the league year (March 15th, 2023 for 2023 league year) so his contract will count towards the cap until June 1st.  Unless they have someone they want to extend or have an agreement to trade for, pretty much all significant free agents will have found a home by then.

Sure, but knowing they will have the space then enables them to rework another current players deal if they need it for a FA. But I suspect they would just take their lumps in 23 on him and take the 6 million in space and be rid of the contract going forward. I just can't get my head around paying him another 17 million after the way the last 2 seasons have gone, I know there are others here who feel he is still worth it and the Rodgers buddy angle is notable.  

 

[LouisEly]

17 minutes ago, OldHeidelberg said:

 I just can't get my head around paying him another 17 million after the way the last 2 seasons have gone

He played 100% of all snap counts the last three games before the appendectomy and 4 of the last five (the exception being on turf at DET).  His PFF grade on the season is 82.  He's healthy, he's playing full games, and playing really well.

[Brewcrew82]

1 hour ago, LouisEly said:

There's a $23M cap hit if they trade or release him, $29M cap hit if they keep him.  For how good he is when he's healthy, I doubt they move on from him to save $6M.  2024 is only a $11.5M cap hit if traded/released, $21.4M cash/cap savings, so I think he's a Packer in 2023 but that's the last year.

Precisely. Why I think Rodgers is staying next year, too. They'll try to run it back with a different D-Coordinator (Leonhard?). Division remains there for the taking as the Vikings are as weak of an 11-3 team as I can remember. That's where the money points rn imo.

[OldHeidelberg]

1 hour ago, LouisEly said:

He played 100% of all snap counts the last three games before the appendectomy and 4 of the last five (the exception being on turf at DET).  His PFF grade on the season is 82.  He's healthy, he's playing full games, and playing really well.

Was the Detroit game the one where they reshuffled the oline during the week and then he went on the injury report on Saturday? I don't remember that being about turf and it was a big blow to the game plan in a game they lost. I don't question his play when on the field, I question his reliability, at least as far as paying him 17 million for a single season. That is still a big number. A couple of years ago everyone was relieved we didn't give a similar amount of money to JJ Watt and they were right. Who knows, it probably will end up somewhere in between where Bakh takes a pay cut to get his cap # down near that 23 million and comes back for one more year with Rodgers. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

4 hours ago, LouisEly said:

He played 100% of all snap counts the last three games before the appendectomy and 4 of the last five (the exception being on turf at DET).  His PFF grade on the season is 82.  He's healthy, he's playing full games, and playing really well.

If a condition of Bakh suiting up or not has to do with what the playing surface is (particularly when your NFC North opponents either play on turf or on the joke that is Soldier Field), then yeah I wouldn't bring him back next season.  A huge part of being an elite LT in the NFL is reliability - being a guy you pencil in at that spot and know he's going to be there on game day pitching a shutout against a team's top pass rusher and not needing a ton of help sprinkled into the offensive gameplan.  If Bakh's knee isn't capable of withstanding a 17 game regular season plus postseason run without regular rest and selective games sat out, he simply shouldn't be paid like an elite LT no matter how good he looks when he's feeling as good as he can feel.  Premium roster spots are too valuable to pay market rate for a part time player.

[UpandIn]

6 hours ago, OldHeidelberg said:

I think it's a given, I think he is due 17 million that isn't guaranteed next season, does anyone think he would get that as a FA? Not me, too many questions about that knee for an aging player. He will get a prove it deal if he wants to play but my guess is he may retire if released. The Packers need to get out from under that deal but it's possible he comes back on a one year deal I guess. 

I think there's almost no chance they cut him. They save 6M dollars by cutting him. It'd honestly make more sense to cut him.

And he seemed to be getting healthier as @LouisEly pointed out and he's STILL the best OL we've got.

15 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

If a condition of Bakh suiting up or not has to do with what the playing surface is (particularly when your NFC North opponents either play on turf or on the joke that is Soldier Field), then yeah I wouldn't bring him back next season.  A huge part of being an elite LT in the NFL is reliability - being a guy you pencil in at that spot and know he's going to be there on game day pitching a shutout against a team's top pass rusher and not needing a ton of help sprinkled into the offensive gameplan.  If Bakh's knee isn't capable of withstanding a 17 game regular season plus postseason run without regular rest and selective games sat out, he simply shouldn't be paid like an elite LT no matter how good he looks when he's feeling as good as he can feel.  Premium roster spots are too valuable to pay market rate for a part time player.

I don't know if the turf was THE reason, he was planning to play and it just flared up on him. 

But there's a problem here. He's gonna get paid like an elite LT either way. So the question is do you keep him and take on the extra 6M or do you cut him? It comes down to is he worth a 6M cap hit? I don't think there's ANY question he is even if you just got what you did out of him this year. And it seems like that's unlikely as he's been progressively getting better, getting stronger. 

If we were a year further down the road on his contract, then it'd be a totally different discussion, but he's just too good, too valuable to let go over such a relatively small number vs the cap. And that's really the number that matters. 

Unless they want Rodgers to leave. Then they won't re-sign Cobb and cut Bakh!

I think there's a pretty good chance that Bakh takes a pay cut on his base salary next year, but that's just me guessing and feeling like Bakh would be willing to do that based on the bad timing of the injury and the money he's been paid. Not that it's been his fault.

[UpandIn]

5 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

I'm guessing Bahk stays for 2023.  For a few reasons:

1. His relationship with Rodgers. If Rogers is back, I'd bet Bahk will also.
2. When healthy he is REALLY good.  I just think they will give him another year to bounce back.
3. $6M really isn't that big of a gain despite our cap issues.  Perhaps he would be open to a reconstruction of his contract?

You nailed all of it IMO.

#3 would hopefully just be a paycut. If they restructure beyond that, then they're trying to get his cap hit down below 23M or whatever it is exactly. And that'd be a bad idea. I don't like saying a professional athlete "owes" us anything but their effort, but...you think he might feel compelled to lower that base salary to save 5M. 

I'd say even if Rodgers isn't back, the only reason I'd part with Bakh is to trade him. Just like with Rodgers, a team acquiring him, their cap hit would be very manageable. 

I don't know why, but I just have this feeling if the Packers really want to move forward with Love, Bakh, Rodgers and Adams may be teammates again. 

[HarveysWBs]

Well it all came up Packers today.  Couldn’t ask for a better set-up…but I still expect a loss in Miami.  The final score will probably be close, but one of those games that is not as close as the score indicates.

Most depressingly, because everything else went our way, we’ll probably keep starting 12 for at least another week, too.

But we’ll see.

[adambr2]

A lot went right for us today. 

I think if we win out, we are going to make the playoffs. I think if we beat Miami, we are going to win out. But I don't know if we are going to beat Miami. Does that all make sense? Merry Christmas!

[UpandIn]

10 hours ago, adambr2 said:

A lot went right for us today. 

I think if we win out, we are going to make the playoffs. I think if we beat Miami, we are going to win out. But I don't know if we are going to beat Miami. Does that all make sense? Merry Christmas!

Yup. That all tracks to me. Hill, Waddle and Gesicki are too fast and slippery to cover with our pass rush. 

[HarveysWBs]

I am quite thrilled to have been proven wrong! Merry Christmas, everyone!

Let’s enjoy the holiday, go home and spank the Vikes and Lions and let the chips fall where they may.

[Fear The Chorizo]

It will feel really good to dislodge the horsehoe currently up the Vikes' rears next weekend to remind them of their impending early playoff exit, along with shoring up a great shot at the Packers winding up with the 7 seed in what is honestly a wide-open NFC playoff picture.

[homer]

this is nuts: