Three-way trade with A's, Braves; Brewers get William Contreras

[UpandIn]

2 hours ago, Redd Vencher said:

Haniger signed with the Giants for 3 years $43 M already @UpandIn.

Well...another RHed bat. Doesn't have to be Haniger, but someone who can hit LHPing. We're still missing that from our lineup(though not nearly as much as we were to start the day!

[Robocaller]

10 hours ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

The A's aren't dumb. 

They might be. Billy isn't running them anymore.

[Robocaller]

12 hours ago, Joseph Zarr said:

I think a major part of the reporting missing on the A's side of things is:

 

They must really love bunt singles.

 

And, that is my Esteury Ruiz joke to close my 2022 calendar year.

I went to an A's site where a guy was denigrating Ruiz's batted ball stats. Bunts kinda tank batted ball stats, and what, Ruiz did it more than once a week?

[Robocaller]

11 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

Come on, it’s not like they traded for Mickey Mantle. There’s not a team out there that wouldn’t have the other Contreras brother’s production, so it’s definitely adding a promising player to a position of need but not some franchise altering trade 

I'd assert that there's no team that would rather have Willson Contreras on his contract than William Contreras on his contract. Probably not even the Cardinals.

[Jake McKibbin]

Hey guys (big crew fan here from Ireland!)

Know my knowledge is a little more limited given I've never played the sport, but can get by fairly well via stats and understanding mechanics when spoken about

Found it very interesting that they wanted Ruiz, remember the trade with the twins where the A's targeted Pache, as a speedy defensive specialist who gets on base and uses his speed effectively. Didnt work with Pache but its clear to se what specifically they're looking for from that position

Be interesting to see how he goes, Speed kills but given the lack of power he would certainly have been my 4th favourite of the brewers outfielders, and would question, despite the Triple A stats, if he can get OB enough in the major to abuse this power

 

As for the return, I'm fairly sure a lot of us didnt expect we'd be able to get any catcher with this sort of offensive capability. Given the crews history with developing catchers on defense, and this guys attitude and drive, Im really shocked at the price we got him for. I think both teams enquired about Murphy, but It sounds like the A's strong armed the Braves into acquiring Ruiz for the trade, and the brewers have absolutely leveraged that to the full. I'm curious why the Braves were so desperate for Murphy, I wonder did they see an issue with Contreras, or more due to D'Arnaud's injury history and Pinas LT injury last year?

 

[Jopal78]

6 hours ago, UpandIn said:

???

"There's not a team out there that wouldn't have the other Contreras brother's production."

LOL...what does Wilson Contreras even have to do with this? It's like getting excited the Brewers got a young, 24 year old AS catcher and saying, "yeah, but that's not a team that wouldn't rather have Adley Rutschman." So what? 

Also, the "other Contreras" went for 5 years 87M and is 30 years old. The one we got...as part of the lesser of the two prospects in the Hader trade, he was...what's the word...uh...BETTER last year offensively.

https://stathead.com/baseball/player-comparison.cgi?player_id2=contrwi02&p1yrfrom=2022&type=b&player_id1=contrwi01&p2yrfrom=2022&sum=0&request=1

Oh, and he's also one of the top hitters vs LHPers in Baseball last year on a 100 Win team. 

So yeah, I think there are teams in baseball would rather have William Contreras production. I think every single one of them would rather have it than spending ~90M on a C who's 6 years older.

I'm also curious how you know it's not a franchise altering move? Don't we generally know AFTER the fact?

 

11 pages. Universal agreement...almost. But you kinda let the cat outta the bag a few weeks back when you basically said you're just a contrarian because it's entertaining. 

I’m not in disagreement, it’s a good trade getting a starting caliber catcher by dealing from an area of depth.

However, the original posters statement “paraphrased” was this trade was bigger than any thing Stearns did.

They traded for a guy with less than 600 PAs in the major leagues. Maybe he’ll end up being a middle of the order slugger for the next 5 years, but first he has to go out in ‘23 and do it again.  
 

The biggest/best trade since 2015… a guy with 500+ PAs? Nah. 

[CheeseheadInQC]

6 hours ago, Redd Vencher said:

This is a pretty weird way to word the A's interest in Ruiz by Rosenthal. Were they just telling every club inquiring on Murphy they wanted Ruiz, or were the Brewers talking to the A's about a Murphy trade themselves?

Didn't one of the articles mention they had been trying to get him from the Padres last year before the Hader trade took place?

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I understand the A's wanted a speedy OF, but its not like the Brewers other 4 ML ready OFs were slow.  Chourio, Frelick, Weimer, and Mitchell all have great speed and above average defense.  I think I would have traded any one of those guys for Contreras (Chuorio would have been tough) to get a already ML C who can hit like Contreras is rare.  

FWIW, MLB updated their top 30 prospects.  Yeager did not slot (Castaneda slid into the top 30).  A's prospects received are Muller (#5), Ruiz (6), Tarnok (11), Salinas (26).  So that's quite the haul.

[SandyTolan]

15 hours ago, TURBO said:

I'd love it a lot more with a real 3B and Frelick in place of Taylor.

If they could ship out Taylor and add a big OF bat, even on a one- or two-year deal, then they could alternate between Mitchell and Frelick in CF (too bad they're both LHHs), and still hopefully have enough to bring in another big bat at 3B or 2B.  That would be pretty incredible. 

[Eye Black]

The Baseball America trade reaction podcast is a great listen, and covers a lot of angles of the transaction. It’s overwhelmingly positive in favor of the Brewers. 

Was also listening to a Braves-centric podcast, Battery Power, and they are very high on Contreras. They maybe summed it up best of all, “the Brewers should feel like this is Christmas morning.”

[MrTPlush]

6 hours ago, sveumrules said:

My best guess would be we didn’t have (or weren’t willing to part with) the kind of pitching OAK wanted back for Murphy, while ATL had the pitching but not Esteury, so the A’s probably said something like “figure out amongst yourselves how to put Ruiz together with the ATL pitchers & we’ll send Murphy to whoever does that.”

Yah, the Brewers surely contacted the A’s about Murphy. That’s probably when the A’s figured out that Ruiz was available and the Brewers were willing to part with him. Thus, how a three team trade became to be. A’s wanted Ruiz bad, but didn’t have anyone the Brewers were going to want. I think they then had to go find the Brewers an impact bat at a position of need. The fact it ended up a catcher might have just been coincidental.

Certainly we caught a bit of a break having a team want Ruiz that badly. I don’t think this trade is a knock on prospect experts or the trade value site. Just a classic example of how one team can have a massively different valuation than most of baseball. Prospect experts and the trade value site are trying to generalize and on an individual basis that can really vary amongst teams.

[Redd Vencher]

1 hour ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

Didn't one of the articles mention they had been trying to get him from the Padres last year before the Hader trade took place?

Yeah I saw that as well. Rosenthal mentions the A's started talking Murphy trades at the last deadline. Maybe the Brewers prioritized Ruiz to try and get Murphy then, and that's why A's were talking about Ruiz to other teams.

[Austin Tatious]

All three teams may ultimately be happy even if the Brewers caught a windfall.

The Braves wanted an elite player and were willing to move a young guy in Contreras where they had depth.  Perhaps Contreras’ defense was a factor.  

I don’t know if it’s Charlie Greene (organizational catching instructor who has been touted over the years) specifically, but the Brewers are obviously comfortable developing a catcher’s receiving skills.  So, the Braves’ concern may be the Brewers gain.

The A’s got some prospects, including pitching from Atlanta.  They highly coveted Ruiz.  This is obvious because they had to get the two relievers in there for the Brewers.   But, if the two pitchers the A’s got end up middle of the rotation starters and Ruiz can hit at all, they will also be pleased.  If Ruiz can slap some hits through and add some bunts, maybe he gets on base enough to swipe 60-80 bags in their big ball park.   His speed is electric.

 

[Austin Tatious]

Contreras’ OPS against southpaws is huge here.  That’s an area in which the Brewers needed significant help.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

56 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

I don’t think this trade is a knock on prospect experts or the trade value site. Just a classic example of how one team can have a massively different valuation than most of baseball. Prospect experts and the trade value site are trying to generalize and on an individual basis that can really vary amongst teams.

The trade values site REALLY struggles assigning values to young prospects that haven't yet made a significant contribution in the majors. Having a value on Ruiz of roughly 4 is a joke, especially after the breakout he had and the fact he was traded as a major piece for the top relief arm in the game a few months ago. Yes, perhaps the Athletics had an uncharacteristic high value on him, but obviously so did the Brewers. And those are two teams who are generally well run and are pretty spot on with player evaluations much of the time. 

I get the feeling that opinions here are skewed on Ruiz because of the Hader trade fallout. People want to think that the Brewers were fleeced in that deal because they need justification for their anger. But in reality, Ruiz obviously holds a high value, and the Brewers likely did pretty well in that deal, picking up what now looks like two very high-end prospects in Ruiz and Gasser.

[CheezWizHed]

Meh... Brewers dumpster diving again... 

 

[MVP2110]

6 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

The trade values site REALLY struggles assigning values to young prospects that haven't yet made a significant contribution in the majors. Having a value on Ruiz of roughly 4 is a joke, especially after the breakout he had and the fact he was traded as a major piece for the top relief arm in the game a few months ago. Yes, perhaps the Athletics had an uncharacteristic high value on him, but obviously so did the Brewers. And those are two teams who are generally well run and are pretty spot on with player evaluations much of the time. 

I get the feeling that opinions here are skewed on Ruiz because of the Hader trade fallout. People want to think that the Brewers were fleeced in that deal because they need justification for their anger. But in reality, Ruiz obviously holds a high value, and the Brewers likely did pretty well in that deal, picking up what now looks like two very high-end prospects in Ruiz and Gasser.

I mean Ruiz was graded on almost all prospect lists behind Chourio, Frelick, Mitchell, & Wiemer. I do think there is something to Ruiz being slightly undervalued due to stolen bases becoming a bigger part of the game going forward but even considering that there is almost no chance his value was that of a 25 year old All Star Catcher who is under control for another 5 seasons, let alone 2 pitchers on top of that

[Redd Vencher]

4 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

The trade values site REALLY struggles assigning values to young prospects that haven't yet made a significant contribution in the majors. Having a value on Ruiz of roughly 4 is a joke, especially after the breakout he had and the fact he was traded as a major piece for the top relief arm in the game a few months ago. Yes, perhaps the Athletics had an uncharacteristic high value on him, but obviously so did the Brewers. And those are two teams who are generally well run and are pretty spot on with player evaluations much of the time. 

I get the feeling that opinions here are skewed on Ruiz because of the Hader trade fallout. People want to think that the Brewers were fleeced in that deal because they need justification for their anger. But in reality, Ruiz obviously holds a high value, and the Brewers likely did pretty well in that deal, picking up what now looks like two very high-end prospects in Ruiz and Gasser.

The values are based on publicly available ranking sites, and what players ranked a certain way have historically performed. A lot of prospects, even really good ones, flame out. A team may feel more sure about any specific prospect than what past performance of the public rankings do. As for BTV on the Hader trade, they had it 15.5 going to SD and 11.10 going to the Brewers.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

6 minutes ago, MVP2110 said:

I mean Ruiz was graded on almost all prospect lists behind Chourio, Frelick, Mitchell, & Wiemer. I do think there is something to Ruiz being slightly undervalued due to stolen bases becoming a bigger part of the game going forward but even considering that there is almost no chance his value was that of a 25 year old All Star Catcher who is under control for another 5 seasons, let alone 2 pitchers on top of that

Oh I don't deny that by all appearances, the Brewers did very well here. I just don't think its the valuation curb-stomping that the BTV site makes it out to be. 

[Harold Hutchison]

16 hours ago, True Blue Brew Crew said:

The A's aren't dumb. They may have overrated Ruiz a tad or perhaps not. The angle here is clearly their large OF and the return of stolen bases to relevance. Who knows, Ruiz might swipe 100 bags for them in 2023 with the basepaths shortened and the new limit on holding runners. And if he does, I'll still think this is a fantastic trade for Milwaukee given what they're getting in Contreras and the fact that Chourio, Frelick, Mitchell, and Weimer are still in the organizational OF.

On the flip side, won't we also see more steals from Frelick/Mitchell/Yelich/Turang, among others? Ruiz's speed and SB ability is good, don't get me wrong, but Vince Coleman 2.0 is a small price to pay for someone who could potentially end up the second-best catcher in franchise history behind Jonathan Lucroy.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

6 minutes ago, Redd Vencher said:

The values are based on publicly available ranking sites, and what players ranked a certain way have historically performed. A lot of prospects, even really good ones, flame out. A team may feel more sure about any specific prospect than what past performance of the public rankings do. As for BTV on the Hader trade, they had it 15.5 going to SD and 11.10 going to the Brewers.

They also struggle ranking relievers IMO. Hader with 1 1/2 years of club control remaining only worth 15.5? 

The site is a fun thing to look at, but people treat it as an "end all, be all" when it comes to player valuations, and it has proven to be far from that.

[Thurston Fluff]

Like everyone I'm way happy about the trade as well as curious as to why we had to seemingly give up so little. Putting on my "what am I missing" hat I wonder if some teams are getting ahead of the curve with the rule changes. If stolen bases are going up in value then poor throwing catchers would go down as well. That could explain why Contreras, a poor throwing catcher, could be had for someone who's speed and base stealing abilities are his main features. Time will tell.

[MVP2110]

An underrated part of the Brewers offseason so far is Matt Arnold adding depth to the Brewers bullpen. Adding guys like Junk, Peguero, Seminaris, Guerra, Varland, Payamps & Yeager, plus young prospects like Uribe & Cam Robinson. Our bullpen could be drastically different in 2023

If you believe that Frelick & Turang can put up similar WAR to Renfroe & Wong then we added nearly all of that depth without diminishing the rest of the roster. 

[Harold Hutchison]

19 minutes ago, Ron Robinsons Beard said:

The trade values site REALLY struggles assigning values to young prospects that haven't yet made a significant contribution in the majors. Having a value on Ruiz of roughly 4 is a joke, especially after the breakout he had and the fact he was traded as a major piece for the top relief arm in the game a few months ago. Yes, perhaps the Athletics had an uncharacteristic high value on him, but obviously so did the Brewers. And those are two teams who are generally well run and are pretty spot on with player evaluations much of the time. 

I get the feeling that opinions here are skewed on Ruiz because of the Hader trade fallout. People want to think that the Brewers were fleeced in that deal because they need justification for their anger. But in reality, Ruiz obviously holds a high value, and the Brewers likely did pretty well in that deal, picking up what now looks like two very high-end prospects in Ruiz and Gasser.

And Ruiz got flipped for an All-Star catcher who had a big offensive season in 2022. So, he had a lot of value not easily measured by BTV.

That said... I think there was an overpay to the Crew to some degree. Is the stolen base making a comeback? Yes. It's been underutilized over the past 20 years or so. But was Ruiz worth Contreras and two potential bullpen mainstays? YMMV. My guess is that Contreras was, at least to the Braves, somewhat like Renfroe was for the Crew - a great asset, but given that they were getting Murphy, and seeking to win now, there was a logjam. Plus, the Braves have always had a good farm system.

The Brewers gave the A's what they needed to pull the deal off, so for the Braves, dealing Contreras and Pina plus others and only getting Murphy cleared some 40-man roster spaces, just as dealing Renfroe eased the logjam in the outfield for Frelick/Mitchell/Wiemer/Chourio. Yeah, Adam Winker's acquisition complicates things a bit, but a part of me thinks that if things go right for the Brewers, Winker gets flipped at the deadline (Because Yelich would have rebounded to 2016-2017 levels, Frelick and Mitchell are having ROY-level campaigns, Taylor and/or Wiener have taken over RF full-time, and the Brewers have 2021-level health in their rotation).

[Jake McKibbin]

I have to disagree with the last bit

 

I think to demonstrate the Brewers as a force, they'll need Winker to be really performing at a very high level again, and to Keep Taylor but move on Winker would seem very strange.

Also seems very optimistic to suggest that Taylor/Weimer outperform Winker to that extent, Yelich finds a way to get a little further out in front of him to utilise his exit velos, and two ROY candidates all together, just a lot of things needing to go right there to trade a DH with a potential to hit at 850-950 OPS

I actually think Mitchell may struggle due to the "LA" swing which rarely reaches and performs well at the majors, and Weimer possibly has the highest ceiling (Bar Chourio)

Just cant see it, though even having contreras DH for LH starters and Winker for RH starters is such an asset