Packers 2023 Discussion Thread

[BrewerFan]

Yeah, when you're trying to grow cartilage in your knee, you're not going to be back in a few months. 

If this surgery works...he'll probably be really good again. As far as I understand it, it's far from certain.

I'll be a big fan when they put him in the Packers HOF. I'd remain open to him coming back next year. But we're 3 years into this now and at best you maybe bring him back if he takes a ~15M paycut next year. 4M+ incentives at most, but you shouldn't plan on him coming back. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

Sounds like Aaron Jones is out again tonight🤬

 

[wallus]

Football is a violent game, but it seems that injuries are more widespread than ever. It's annoying not watching these games with most of the stars playing.

[adambr2]

What is up with Jones?

[LouisEly]

12 hours ago, adambr2 said:

What is up with Jones?

They said on the broadcast that Jones tweaked his hammy on Saturday.  This after a full week (or more) of MLF designing his game plan around Jones being available. 

[MrTPlush]

I don't think the field is at fault for Rodgers' achilles tear. I think it was due to carrying MLF on his back for years.

I honestly think MLF is a Bottom 10 coach. His in-game coaching is pretty terrible and whatever his responsibility in the defense coordinator still being here is another fail. Though I think it has been inferred in the past that may be a decision above him. 

The only thing he does well is not have the entire locker room implode and hate him/each other. 

[RobertR]

Stuff like having Preston Smith cover one of the best receivers in the NFL and assigning rookie tight ends to the opponent's best pass rusher are the kind of moves badly coached football teams do. The kind of stuff you laugh at when the Bears of the world do them. It's the kind of thing that isn't acceptable, injuries or no injuries. 

[CheezWizHed]

5 hours ago, RobertR said:

Stuff like having Preston Smith cover one of the best receivers in the NFL and assigning rookie tight ends to the opponent's best pass rusher are the kind of moves badly coached football teams do. The kind of stuff you laugh at when the Bears of the world do them. It's the kind of thing that isn't acceptable, injuries or no injuries. 

All OLBs drop into coverage at some point.  Yes, it looks odd, but it isn't like he is in 1on1 coverage on a WR.  That is what zone occasionally looks like.

Now, there are many other reasons to not like the Joe Barry defense... 

[adambr2]

I think a lot of us probably had unrealistic expectations and hopes for both the 2023 Packers and Jordan Love's trajectory after Week 1.

With that said, the main thing you look for in a young team is steady, if not linear improvement. So it's a bit concerning to see us basically regress week to week from every week since Week 1. That feels like coaching. 

[nate82]

2 hours ago, adambr2 said:

I think a lot of us probably had unrealistic expectations and hopes for both the 2023 Packers and Jordan Love's trajectory after Week 1.

With that said, the main thing you look for in a young team is steady, if not linear improvement. So it's a bit concerning to see us basically regress week to week from every week since Week 1. That feels like coaching. 

More along the lines of poor offensive line play after week 1.  The reason Love looked so good in week 1 is because he had no pressure at all from the Bears defense and even their blitzes were picked up.  The closest a Bears DL got to Love was when he was under center presnap.  The Bears had 2 QB pressures in the whole game.

It is easy when the other team isn’t pressuring you to make passes with a defender in your face.  After week 1 Love saw more pressure and more hits.  Looking at week 1 and saying he looks bad since then is not really fair.  The Falcons game is probably where you want to start the evaluation of Love.

[adambr2]

2 hours ago, nate82 said:

More along the lines of poor offensive line play after week 1.  The reason Love looked so good in week 1 is because he had no pressure at all from the Bears defense and even their blitzes were picked up.  The closest a Bears DL got to Love was when he was under center presnap.  The Bears had 2 QB pressures in the whole game.

It is easy when the other team isn’t pressuring you to make passes with a defender in your face.  After week 1 Love saw more pressure and more hits.  Looking at week 1 and saying he looks bad since then is not really fair.  The Falcons game is probably where you want to start the evaluation of Love.

I didn't say Love looks bad since Week 1. I said as an entire team we seem to be regressing, not improving, since Week 1 which is the opposite of what you'd like to see from a young team. 

But, I wouldn't attribute all of Love's struggles to the offensive line. Monday was by far Love's worst game as a pro. I wouldn't say the offensive line was "good" by any means in Las Vegas but they were far better than they were in Detroit.

[MrTPlush]

6 hours ago, nate82 said:

More along the lines of poor offensive line play after week 1.  The reason Love looked so good in week 1 is because he had no pressure at all from the Bears defense and even their blitzes were picked up.  The closest a Bears DL got to Love was when he was under center presnap.  The Bears had 2 QB pressures in the whole game.

It is easy when the other team isn’t pressuring you to make passes with a defender in your face.  After week 1 Love saw more pressure and more hits.  Looking at week 1 and saying he looks bad since then is not really fair.  The Falcons game is probably where you want to start the evaluation of Love.

The line hasn't been stellar, but it isn't like it has been atrocious either. Their sack percentage is only 20th in the league. Love has been pressured on 21% of drop backs...which really isn't that terrible, good for 20th in the league. His 11 hits while passing is 10th lowest in the league. He has been blitzed the 3rd lowest amount in the NFL. 

It doesn't excuse pacing the NFL's worst completion percentage by 4%, being tied for second in INTs, second worst bad throw %, and 8th worst on-target throw percentage. 

The one thing actually going against him is the fact his running game doesn't exist, so they don't really have to invest much thought in stopping the run. That really isn't going to do Jordan Love many favors trying to find guys open. However, the fact he has terrible accuracy also is a solid reason they don't blitz him. Why do him any favors and potentially leave a guy open? He isn't going to thread the needle and actually hit his WRs on the numbers. 

[CheezWizHed]

48 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

It doesn't excuse pacing the NFL's worst completion percentage by 4%, being tied for second in INTs, second worst bad throw %, and 8th worst on-target throw percentage. 

Completion percentage was the big ticket to watch for with Love.  It was his "red flag" coming out of college and continues to be his Achilles heel. 

Percentage completion and yards/attempt are kind of like the OBP and SLG of a MLB batter. If you complete a high percentage, but very low yards/attempt, you won't have much impact.  Having a low percentage but higher yds/attempt is kind of like Chris Carter... will have high impact some games and negligible on others. Compare Fields and Love in the bears game:

• Fields: 65% completion; 5.8 yds/attempt
• Love: 56% completion; 9.1 yds/attempt

If Love can get to a 62-63% completion rate while maintaining a high (around 8.0) yds/attempt, you can win with that QB.  Rarely can any QB win regularly in the NFL with a completion rate in the 50s. 

Of course, the elites are able to complete >65% long term with a average of 8 yards.  

Since he was mentioned as a Love comp, Cutler for his career was 62% completion with 7.1 yd average. Rodgers was 65.3% and 7.7.

Love is current 55.3% and 6.7, so he has a long ways to go. 

[MrTPlush]

1 hour ago, CheezWizHed said:

Completion percentage was the big ticket to watch for with Love.  It was his "red flag" coming out of college and continues to be his Achilles heel. 

Percentage completion and yards/attempt are kind of like the OBP and SLG of a MLB batter. If you complete a high percentage, but very low yards/attempt, you won't have much impact.  Having a low percentage but higher yds/attempt is kind of like Chris Carter... will have high impact some games and negligible on others. Compare Fields and Love in the bears game:

• Fields: 65% completion; 5.8 yds/attempt
• Love: 56% completion; 9.1 yds/attempt

If Love can get to a 62-63% completion rate while maintaining a high (around 8.0) yds/attempt, you can win with that QB.  Rarely can any QB win regularly in the NFL with a completion rate in the 50s. 

Of course, the elites are able to complete >65% long term with a average of 8 yards.  

Since he was mentioned as a Love comp, Cutler for his career was 62% completion with 7.1 yd average. Rodgers was 65.3% and 7.7.

Love is current 55.3% and 6.7, so he has a long ways to go. 

Yah, I noticed his yards per attempt was pretty high. Again, probably due to his running game sucking and long yardage to go is pretty common. Also probably due to defense's stacking the field to take away mid-range stuff from him because he certainly can't accurately throw it far.

It would be nice to get Jones back healthy. Right now it feels like a lot of 'make Jordan Love beat us' and there are probably less than five QBs in the NFL that can beat a defense with that gameplan. 

 

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Their run game doesn't exist but there are minimal opportunities for him to go down field as well. Combination of passive playcalling, having to leave extra guys in to block and Love missing when they try.  When your TE and RB both chip the edge rusher that is two guys either not on a route or requiring an extra second to do so. 

It sounds crazy at 2-3, but honestly they aren't going to win anything this year so I'd almost prefer they just prioritize trying to figure out what Love can do, and find a downfield offense above winning. They need to get Love and all those young WRs going.

[LouisEly]

6 hours ago, OldSchoolSnapper said:

and all those young WRs going.

That's what few people are talking about, which I find strange.   Add the TEs to it.  Three of six WRs are rookies and every TE except Deguara (debate if he's a FB, H-Back, or TE) is a rookie.  How is their route tree knowledge at this point?  Are they not able to run complex downfield plays because the receivers just aren't at that development point yet?

[adambr2]

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2023/10/10/23911193/green-bay-packers-jordan-love-is-struggling-week-5-las-vegas-raiders?fbclid=IwAR0qYwHUOXnxS6BxpY4TVhYUd06RTxQsGdVuOs-gia1SRy0aNGcjJ6nacpo

 

 

[MrTPlush]

14 hours ago, LouisEly said:

That's what few people are talking about, which I find strange.   Add the TEs to it.  Three of six WRs are rookies and every TE except Deguara (debate if he's a FB, H-Back, or TE) is a rookie.  How is their route tree knowledge at this point?  Are they not able to run complex downfield plays because the receivers just aren't at that development point yet?

Probably because it doesn't matter who you are throwing to if the ball is 5 feet away. Why would you run complex downfield plays when Love can't accurately throw 5 yards in front of himself? You can throw a lot of blame around on offense, but Love is easily the biggest issue so far. The only other player on the map would be AJ Dillon, but at least he takes care of the ball.

 

 

[homer]

23 minutes ago, MrTPlush said:

Probably because it doesn't matter who you are throwing to if the ball is 5 feet away. Why would you run complex downfield plays when Love can't accurately throw 5 yards in front of himself? You can throw a lot of blame around on offense, but Love is easily the biggest issue so far. The only other player on the map would be AJ Dillon, but at least he takes care of the ball.

 

 

The O Line has been very bad. And Aaron Jones has been out. When you can't run and can't protect it's hard to run an offense particularly with a bunch of 1st and 2nd year guys running routes.

[CheezWizHed]

18 hours ago, LouisEly said:

That's what few people are talking about, which I find strange.   Add the TEs to it.  Three of six WRs are rookies and every TE except Deguara (debate if he's a FB, H-Back, or TE) is a rookie.  How is their route tree knowledge at this point?  Are they not able to run complex downfield plays because the receivers just aren't at that development point yet?

There have been a few cases where it looked like the receiver ran the wrong route or wrong depth, but there are far more throws that are obviously off the mark or late (possibly the harder item to fix). 

When Love checks down the ball to the RB and throws it 3 yards in front of him or behind him, it is hard to blame the RB (since Love simply looks out at him and throws; not throwing to a route). And he has thrown many, many late throws where the DB ends up on top of the WR; several resulting in INTs.  Two of his INTs last week were thrown late - one the DB almost was in front of the WR but merely bounced the ball into the air where someone else caught it. 

So if you are considering why Love has a 55% completion rate, I'd estimate it is a 25% receiver issue and 75% Love issue, IMO

[MrTPlush]

4 hours ago, homer said:

The O Line has been very bad. And Aaron Jones has been out. When you can't run and can't protect it's hard to run an offense particularly with a bunch of 1st and 2nd year guys running routes.

The O-Line has been just fine pass blocking. Whether that is because they throw extra TEs and a RB to chip blocks is fairly irrelevant to Love's inaccuracy. If he has time, which he has, then he should be making pretty decent throws. Now whether they get broken up because the coverage is nuts, is a different story. Statistically, they haven't had a lot of passes broken up though

If we are talking about the offense's overall success/effectiveness then, yah, the O-Line isn't very good.

[Fear The Chorizo]

The O-Line has been just fine pass blocking. Whether that is because they throw extra TEs and a RB to chip blocks is fairly irrelevant to Love's inaccuracy. 

Against LV Raiders, who really have 1 good pass rusher in Crosby, they were routinely trying to pass block with 7 against 4 man rushes and only sending 3 receivers out for initial routes against 7 man coverages.  You don't do that with a decent offensive line.  Walker has been a turnstyle at LT when not getting help, and the line in general has been brutal against stunts and occasional blitzes.  Teams really aren't even blitzing Love very much because there isn't a need to when the Packers are already in max protect mode.

Jones being out also kills their passing game to RBs, which is a developing QB's security blanket - however Love has also been very inaccurate with most swing passes out in the flat, to the point where even completions aren't in stride and leading to guys having no chance to make a move and pick up positive yardage.

One thing I'm hoping to see from Love is better accuracy with his short/intermediate throws.  Part of me is trying to continually remind myself that I've been used to seeing those throws by arguably the most accurate quarterback in the history of the NFL in Rodgers, so Love isn't going to ever meet that standard....but he's got to be better with ball placement on those swing routes and bubble screens to give those plays a chance at generating positive yardage.  He's got to be much better at hitting receivers in the right spot with throws in the middle of the field, or he'll continue to be an INT machine that winds up being gunshy at making throws when guys are open.  

 

[LouisEly]

4 hours ago, MrTPlush said:

The O-Line has been just fine pass blocking

Not lately.  Their season stats are skewed because they only gave up a total of 12 pressures their first two games (6 per game).  Then no Bakh, no Jenkins, Tom injured a knee, Runyan injured an ankle, and they've given up 42 pressures (14 per game) over their last three games.

 

3 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Against LV Raiders, who really have 1 good pass rusher in Crosby, they were routinely trying to pass block with 7 against 4 man rushes and only sending 3 receivers out for initial routes against 7 man coverages.  You don't do that with a decent offensive line.  Walker has been a turnstyle at LT when not getting help, and the line in general has been brutal against stunts and occasional blitzes.  Teams really aren't even blitzing Love very much because there isn't a need to when the Packers are already in max protect mode.

Tom has actually given up more pressures than Walker.  Over the last two games Tom has given up 10 pressures and Walker 8.  Crosby lined up quite a bit across from Tom; on one of his pressures he lined up across from Tom and then stunted all the way around to LG. 

Through week 3, Walker had given up zero pressures on true pass sets.  That was after practicing most of the week prior to the Falcons game as the jumbo TE and not knowing until the evening before the Falcons game that he would be playing LT.  It's just the last two games where he struggled.

[LouisEly]

https://packerswire.usatoday.com/lists/packers-qb-jordan-love-situation-gone-wrong-run-game-david-bakhtiari-aaron-jones-chrisitan-watson-offense/

[BrewerFan]

On 10/10/2023 at 10:02 PM, CheezWizHed said:

All OLBs drop into coverage at some point.  Yes, it looks odd, but it isn't like he is in 1on1 coverage on a WR.  That is what zone occasionally looks like.

Now, there are many other reasons to not like the Joe Barry defense... 

Yes. Both things can be true. Capers was a defensive genius and yet BJ Raji was in coverage for a rather memorable game.

 

I think MLF is a good offensive coach, but I cannot defend him while Joe Barry is their DC. If it's above him, it's a sign the Packers don't fully trust him or having given him the authority to make hiring decisions and if it's his choice, then...what the hell are you doing Matt? 

But the scheme? Every scheme looks bad when you're losing yardage on early downs and getting behind the sticks.

I don't think we should be surprised that there are issues(one play 3 receivers were within ~5-7 yards of each other down the left hash) with young players when...this entire year is about transitioning from one of the oldest teams to the youngest team in the NFL.

Youth+terrible OL play and it's virtually impossible to look good as an offensive coach. 

Then you take out Aaron Jones, you neuter your Play Action game, you have longer developing routes and a 1st year starter(I understand it's his 4th year in the league) and...it's just not going to be good. 

 

Quote

@homerThe O Line has been very bad. And Aaron Jones has been out. When you can't run and can't protect it's hard to run an offense particularly with a bunch of 1st and 2nd year guys running routes.

All of this.