Rumor: Heyman discusses the likelihood of trading Burnes

[Brock Beauchamp]

Heyman thinks a trade is unlikely given the blowback of the Hader deal last deadline. I think he's right about that but also, he doesn't mention that Burnes hasn't really looked like Corbin Burnes this season. That alone makes a trade less appealing to the Brewers, as other teams are not going to offer 2021 Corbin Burnes prospect capital for this version of the pitcher.

Also, the Brewers rotation is in shambles. Maybe that changes as we approach the deadline but I can't see Arnold repeating the Hader deal in the middle of a division race.

 

 

View full rumor

[wiguy94]

8 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Heyman thinks a trade is unlikely given the blowback of the Hader deal last deadline. I think he's right about that but also, he doesn't mention that Burnes hasn't really looked like Corbin Burnes this season. That alone makes a trade less appealing to the Brewers, as other teams are not going to offer 2021 Corbin Burnes prospect capital for this version of the pitcher.

Also, the Brewers rotation is in shambles. Maybe that changes as we approach the deadline but I can't see Arnold repeating the Hader deal in the middle of a division race.

 

 

 

View full rumor

 

If Burnes was made available on the trade market, he would still get quite a lot. He'd easily be the most sought after SP which will drive up his value.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, wiguy94 said:

If Burnes was made available on the trade market, he would still get quite a lot. He'd easily be the most sought after SP which will drive up his value.

Oh yeah, don't get me wrong there. He'll still net a big return, just maybe not as big as he would if he was pitching better.

[wiguy94]

2 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Oh yeah, don't get me wrong there. He'll still net a big return, just maybe not as big as he would if he was pitching better.

Just not sure I agree with that. Brewers will have a ton of leverage dealing the best pitcher on the market. There would likely be a bidding war for him.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, wiguy94 said:

Just not sure I agree with that. Brewers will have a ton of leverage dealing the best pitcher on the market. There would likely be a bidding war for him.

It's possible I'm wrong but I think teams might be a little cautious given how Burnes has pitched.

[brewers888]

Is there really going to be a backlash if this team is hovering around .500 at the deadline if they trade Burnes. If this was a 90 plus win team poised to win a World Series I would understand the apprehension but as long as this team keeps playing as it has Burnes should be traded.

[Jopal78]

The only reason there would be any blowback is because their owner and front office’s idiotic comments about rebuilding.

Without Burnes and Woodruff they’re a 75 win team. Neither is likely signing an extension, so fans should know or realize once the team slips in the standings they’ll deal them both along with whomever else has trade value and expiring team control in the next 18 months. 

[brewers888]

24 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

The only reason there would be any blowback is because their owner and front office’s idiotic comments about rebuilding.

Without Burnes and Woodruff they’re a 75 win team. Neither is likely signing an extension, so fans should know or realize once the team slips in the standings they’ll deal them both along with whomever else has trade value and expiring team control in the next 18 months. 

This team can't afford to let an asset like Burnes leave without getting anything besides a late first round pick in return. I am in favor of extending Woodruff but this owner doesn't seem to want to do any other big money deals after the Yelich flop.

[Fear The Chorizo]

23 minutes ago, brewers888 said:

This team can't afford to let an asset like Burnes leave without getting anything besides a late first round pick in return. I am in favor of extending Woodruff but this owner doesn't seem to want to do any other big money deals after the Yelich flop.

Honest question - who on this current Brewers roster would you consider to be an impact talent worthy of a longterm contract extension anywhere close to the market setting rate at their position?  Burnes has pitched like a #3 starter since last July, Woodruff is injured and already on the wrong side of 30 for a pitcher, Adames is injured and batting just over 0.200....and those are probably the top 3 candidates talked about most for a huge extension.

IMO the only guy on the roster worth giving a top dollar extension offer to that would make him reconsider going to free agency would be Devin Williams, who they happen to control through the 2025 season via arbitration.

[nate82]

5 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Just not sure I agree with that. Brewers will have a ton of leverage dealing the best pitcher on the market. There would likely be a bidding war for him.

The Brewers will have some leverage but not much.  I think the most the Brewers get is $45m in excess value.  Burnes right now is rated at about $50m in excess value so the Brewers will be selling at about a $5m loss.  I think most trades are going to come in at the $40m mark.  So at most expect 1 top 25-50 ranked player and a bunch of 15-20 organizational ranked players. 

[Harold Hutchison]

1 minute ago, nate82 said:

The Brewers will have some leverage but not much.  I think the most the Brewers get is $45m in excess value.  Burnes right now is rated at about $50m in excess value so the Brewers will be selling at about a $5m loss.  I think most trades are going to come in at the $40m mark.  So at most expect 1 top 25-50 ranked player and a bunch of 15-20 organizational ranked players. 

Too bad we can't get some draft picks in the deal...

[nate82]

11 minutes ago, clancyphile said:

Too bad we can't get some draft picks in the deal...

Could get a competitive balance pick from the Rays, Mariners, Reds, Royals, Rockies, Guardians, Pirates, Orioles, A's, Marlins or D'backs.

If the Brewers trade Burnes up to 2-hours before the draft.  So it is possible the Rays could trade prospects plus their comp-a pick (~$6M) to the Brewers.  I am just not sure the Rays would do that. 

A quick edit something like: Williams (SS/3B), Comp-A pick and Basabe (SS) would be at that $45m surplus value. 

[BlightyBrew]

I think we might have to lower our expectations on our return from any potential Burnes trade either in a month from now or next offseason.

At the end of the day, there will only be a 3-4 teams that will be able to afford the contract Burnes will get come free agency.   I don't see mid market teams willing to expend impact prospect capital( that the Brewers need to move the needle for this organization) to get Burnes for either a 1.5 or 1 year when they know they won't be able to afford his FA contract.  There might be some argument that they might be willing to sacrifice that in order to win now but I don't see it.  

Big market teams probably won't offer their top tier prospects unless they were confident that they could sign him to an extension.  Which if I were them I'd rather keep our top talent and fight it out when he becomes a free agent.

The bidding war for Burnes will be when he becomes a Free Agent.

[umphrey]

Who cares about backlash if the team is in the tank anyway

[brewmann04]

Could it be any worse than what they did last year ?

[Brock Beauchamp]

19 minutes ago, brewmann04 said:

Could it be any worse than what they did last year ?

Sure, because the on-field impact last season wasn't that significant. Trading away Burnes could see a much larger drop in production.

[rickh150]

Still lots of negativity with the Brewers…

Unthinkably, DS basically says no mas to 2023 and seemingly sits in a back room of AmFam.  CC does not seemingly want to sign an extension.  Attanasio not wanting to pony up $ to get offense the last July or this offseason. The whole ballpark fiasco and who splits the bill with owner being silent. No extension talks for any of the stars. Meh attendance.  Now the trade articles with team in first.  It’s a much different feel in Milwaukee than especially 2007/2008; or even 2011, 2018, or 2021.

Burnes being unhappy with his millions this year and then pitching like Soup in a half dozen games fits the theme. Getting dealt while team is in first would, as well.
 

[edfunderburk]

On 5/30/2023 at 4:53 PM, Brock Beauchamp said:

It's possible I'm wrong but I think teams might be a little cautious given how Burnes has pitched.

Burnes looked horrible against San Fran recently 

He was throwing batting practice 

He gave up four HRs & never made adjustments 

His 2023 value is lower than 2022 or 2021

[Outlander]

Years of control certainly matter so yes his value is going to be lower than 2022 or 2021. The trade with Hader did work as they ended up with Contreras, Payamps and Gasser. However, it is still a bad look to throw in the towel in this poor division. The Brewers could make the case they were going to be better with Rogers last year but will be even harder to say this team will be better without Burnes. Probably should have traded Burnes in the off season and now will likely have to wait until after this season.

[Playing Catch]

I think a lot of the negativity is actually boredom. Fans are bored with the trajectory of the team. They want something fresh. This version of the Brewers is a bit stale, due in large part to the injuries. The team needs a jolt. I'm not sure trading Burnes is the jolt they're looking for. This team really needed one of the rookies to take off, one of the starters to be Cy-worthy, one of the DHs to hit some walkoffs, One of the stars to sign an extension. Something. ANYTHING that is remotely exciting. Heck, I think it would be less boring if the Brewers were currently slotted where the Cardinals are. Then everyone would already be excited about bottom-ing out and getting fresh-faced stars-of-the-future.

I mentioned this in another thread, but I'm not convinced that the Brewers best option isn't to just let Woody/Burnes walk after 2024. Get one more crack at a playoff run with them leading the charge. It is VERY difficult to get actual, fair value back for 5+ WAR players. Teams sometimes are just better off getting another season from them.

[tonyei31]

On 5/30/2023 at 8:03 PM, Fear The Chorizo said:

Honest question - who on this current Brewers roster would you consider to be an impact talent worthy of a longterm contract extension anywhere close to the market setting rate at their position?  Burnes has pitched like a #3 starter since last July, Woodruff is injured and already on the wrong side of 30 for a pitcher, Adames is injured and batting just over 0.200....and those are probably the top 3 candidates talked about most for a huge extension.

IMO the only guy on the roster worth giving a top dollar extension offer to that would make him reconsider going to free agency would be Devin Williams, who they happen to control through the 2025 season via arbitration.

With the Hader blowback, and knowing you have an elite closer like Williams, I would definitely approach for a longterm deal beyond 2025, buying out the remaining 2 arby years.  If it can be a viable deal that tacks on 2-3 more years beyond Arby years I am all for it.  If we were to see a slip it's likely we would have seen it by now.  

 

Rest of your comment is spot on.  The only one I would  maybe consider for an extension beyond Devin is Rowdy.  On the simple fact you know what you have, he is average or a little better than average at first base, and should be affordable.  It would be nice to have a single position where the consistency is pretty standard.  Should allow the OF and Turang Development to progress while having that known commodity at first.  

 

 

[brewmann04]

the brewers being in a bad division they will keep Burnes around unless some team comes Knocking with a offer Arnold can't refuse

[Jopal78]

Really, trading Burnes would be similar to when the Royals traded Zack Greinke. Both in their 20s, no injury history, with a recent Cy Young award, and while not as dominate as their Cy Young year, quite productive. 
 

Burnes with a half season less of team control obviously, but those type of players don’t come available often and a worth’s king’s ransom. 
 

 

[nate82]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

Really, trading Burnes would be similar to when the Royals traded Zack Greinke. Both in their 20s, no injury history, with a recent Cy Young award, and while not as dominate as their Cy Young year, quite productive. 
 

Burnes with a half season less of team control obviously, but those type of players don’t come available often and a worth’s king’s ransom. 
 

 

Unlikely as Burnes has been trending downwards for about a year now.  The only saving grace for the Brewers this deadline is that the best pitcher available right now is Eduardo Rodriguez.  I don't believe the Angels will trade Ohtani.  Bieber could also be available at the deadline who has also won a Cy Young.

[Jake McKibbin]

2 minutes ago, nate82 said:

Unlikely as Burnes has been trending downwards for about a year now.  The only saving grace for the Brewers this deadline is that the best pitcher available right now is Eduardo Rodriguez.  I don't believe the Angels will trade Ohtani.  Bieber could also be available at the deadline who has also won a Cy Young.

I think Bieber looks like he may very likely be available, and could be the biggest available looking at recent form