How Will The Bonus Pool Be Split (The Signing Thread)

[JDBrewCrew]

MLB pipeline is doing their updates tonight to our Top 30, including adding the draft picks. In a podcast yesterdya they were raving about our system and draft as well. 

[snoogans8056]

32 minutes ago, JDBrewCrew said:

MLB pipeline is doing their updates tonight to our Top 30, including adding the draft picks. In a podcast yesterdya they were raving about our system and draft as well. 

The turnaround with no top draft picks, and only Gasser to show for trading guys away… It’s seriously mind blowing.

[titletownking]

And this system is only going to get better. They have had a serious infusion of talent added between the international and draft classes of the last 2 years. High upside young talent and guys on the verge. Deep as it’s ever been. 

[BrewerFan]

On 8/10/2023 at 9:47 PM, titletownking said:

And this system is only going to get better. They have had a serious infusion of talent added between the international and draft classes of the last 2 years. High upside young talent and guys on the verge. Deep as it’s ever been. 

It's just gonna be fun to see who is going to pop from this group. Baez, Pratt, Bitonti, Guiarte or at 3B will it be Boeve, Wilken, Adams. There are so many guys from every position group, guys with speed, power...

The one area this farm system is lacking is in projectable young arms and that's really relative to the rest of the system. Misiorowski, Gasser, Knoth and hopefully Leston or one of the prep arms from this year develops. Gasser, Rodriguez are middle to back of the rotation types at the moment, but...maybe they tick up. 

Key is getting a good package back for Burnes, but I could easily see this farm system being a top 3-5 system mid-season next year.

[SF70]

On 8/10/2023 at 3:28 PM, snoogans8056 said:

The turnaround with no top draft picks, and only Gasser to show for trading guys away… It’s seriously mind blowing.

Absolutely is.

This team’s infrastructure is as good as there is in baseball. PDS-analytics-amateur draft department-IFA department- independent league scouting-catching development, and with the changes made to the hitting development in ‘19 &’20, hopefully the final piece comes together.

[SF70]

19 hours ago, BrewerFan said:

It's just gonna be fun to see who is going to pop from this group. Baez, Pratt, Bitonti, Guiarte or at 3B will it be Boeve, Wilken, Adams. There are so many guys from every position group, guys with speed, power...

The one area this farm system is lacking is in projectable young arms and that's really relative to the rest of the system. Misiorowski, Gasser, Knoth and hopefully Leston or one of the prep arms from this year develops. Gasser, Rodriguez are middle to back of the rotation types at the moment, but...maybe they tick up. 

Key is getting a good package back for Burnes, but I could easily see this farm system being a top 3-5 system mid-season next year.

And progress is being made fixing the starter arm void with adding projectable arms in the last 2 IFA classes and of course the ‘23 draft adding 13 arms from which to work with.

With all of the pre-arby positional talent ahead and team friendly deals with Peralta-Ashby, they should be able to add a nice FA starter to go with the aforementioned pair and Gasser-CRod-Rea for the ‘25 season. And if they can turn Misiorowski into a real starter — look-out.

[Playing Catch]

On 8/10/2023 at 2:42 AM, Robocaller said:

Our high draft picks have been doing amazingly well. If Boeve maintains his newly found power, he will be a huge steal. 
Does any of the prospect rating sites do a re-grade of teams draft after the season?

When you look at the minors stats for good MLB players, they rarely have any growing pains or hiccups with the bat (over the course of a full season). I'm thrilled with all of the hot starts. I've absolutely fallen in love with Wilken, even though I was dubious on draft day. His swing is sooooo quiet and smooth.

On 8/10/2023 at 2:28 PM, snoogans8056 said:

The turnaround with no top draft picks, and only Gasser to show for trading guys away… It’s seriously mind blowing.

I hadn't really considered this fact. It's incredible. Most strong farms are due to the two factors you mentioned. They're doing a lot right.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Minor league system strength, the kind that consistently churns out good MLB players, is all about hitting on draft picks and getting enough bites at the international signing apple every year.  Sure, there are organizations that are better than others in terms of "developing" players they bring in and turning them into MLBers, but I think so much of that is the individual player's drive.  If organizations draft well (and that includes finding ways to get talented mid-round picks to sign on a consistent basis) to get players with MLB-caliber talent in the fold, it's a huge start.  Not having several consecutive years of top 5 draft picks because the MLB squad is awful makes it difficult to pick an ironclad impact talent every draft, but the Brewers seem to have figured out how to find collegiate prospects who turn into MLB regulars after ~2-3 years of minor league experience.

What we are also seeing is a dramatic improvement in the Brewers' instructional staffing and offseason development system over the past couple of seasons, which had long been an organizational afterthought in terms of staff and budget before Stearns overhauled it.  To me, that should be more important and prioritized than spending in MLB free agency in terms of budgeting, particularly for a small market organization.

[StearnsFTW]

On 8/10/2023 at 1:55 PM, JDBrewCrew said:

MLB pipeline is doing their updates tonight to our Top 30, including adding the draft picks. In a podcast yesterdya they were raving about our system and draft as well. 

Link if you have it?

[Jim Goulart]

1 hour ago, StearnsFTW said:

Link if you have it?

49:55 minute mark of the podcast

[CheezWizHed]

On 8/12/2023 at 1:56 AM, BrewerFan said:

Key is getting a good package back for Burnes, but I could easily see this farm system being a top 3-5 system mid-season next year.

MLB system rating had us as the #3 system right now (#2 based on top 100 prospects alone).  That is with Wiemer and Mitchell removed.  

I also find it hilarious that the last time we had so many top 100 ranked MiLB players (headlined by Lewis Brinson)... a bunch were traded for Yelich and almost none of them turned out at the MLB level.   This certainly feels different. 

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-2023-midseason-system-rankings

I did note however... that 4 of our top 5 (and all position players) are under 6'0"...interesting.  Have we found a market inefficiency as other teams focus on taller players?

[Robocaller]

On 8/16/2023 at 11:21 AM, CheezWizHed said:

I did note however... that 4 of our top 5 (and all position players) are under 6'0"...interesting.  Have we found a market inefficiency as other teams focus on taller players?

I've been thinking that for a while. Consider these players, who could probably all slot within the top 30 or so.*

Black 5'10"

Quero 5'11"

Valerio 5'5"

Chourio 5'11"

C. Rodriguez 5'8"

Wood 5'10"

Moore 5'8"

Lara 5'7"

Arienamo 5'8"

Guillarte 5'11"

O'Rae 5'7"

Norman 5'8"

Baez 5'9"

Ereu 5'10"

DiTuri 5'11"

* I don't think being 5'11" is limiting at all, unless the player is a 1B exclusively. My suspicion is that for players < 5'10," their ultimate ceiling is lower (on average) than their performance at the lower levels of the minors would suggest (say you have two guys who are legitimate prospects and are hitting about the same in A ball, and are the same age--I'd expect the 6'1" guy  to end up the better MLB player instead of the 5'8" one). Exceptions will continue to exist, of course.
 

And, of course, 5'10 is fine for a C or middle infielder.

[wallus]

When the robot strike zones come, being shorter will be advantageous. 

[BrewerFan]

On 8/17/2023 at 2:52 PM, Robocaller said:

I've been thinking that for a while. Consider these players, who could probably all slot within the top 30 or so.*

Black 5'10"

Quero 5'11"

Valerio 5'5"

Chourio 5'11"

C. Rodriguez 5'8"

Wood 5'10"

Moore 5'8"

Lara 5'7"

Arienamo 5'8"

Guillarte 5'11"

O'Rae 5'7"

Norman 5'8"

Baez 5'9"

Ereu 5'10"

DiTuri 5'11"

* I don't think being 5'11" is limiting at all, unless the player is a 1B exclusively. My suspicion is that for players < 5'10," their ultimate ceiling is lower (on average) than their performance at the lower levels of the minors would suggest (say you have two guys who are legitimate prospects and are hitting about the same in A ball, and are the same age--I'd expect the 6'1" guy  to end up the better MLB player instead of the 5'8" one). Exceptions will continue to exist, of course.
 

And, of course, 5'10 is fine for a C or middle infielder.

I just think they're doing a REALLY good job of hitting on players. I don't think this is necessarily a conscious choice or taking advantage of shorter players being undervalued. They've also added quite a few guys who are 6'4 or bigger who should be top ~15 prospects in Misiorowski, Bitonti, Pratt, Wilken, Adams, Letson...

 

But there may be something to smaller players like...O'Rae and an organizational shift that started a few years ago where they prioritized contact and athleticism(which is timing up perfectly with the limited shift). 

You may be right though. It's entirely possible if Chourio was 6'3, he'd have gotten a signing bonus 2X the size as it's obvious easier to project power coming from a frame like that.

Knoth is almost certainly going higher if he's 6'4 rather than ~6'. 

I just think the Brewers have been doing it better than everyone else save for Tampa. Obviously the LAD do an outstanding job building their system. They also have obvious advantages built in when it comes to signing LA prospects vs the Brewers just based on name recognition. 

[BrewerFan]

On 8/15/2023 at 9:40 AM, Fear The Chorizo said:

Minor league system strength, the kind that consistently churns out good MLB players, is all about hitting on draft picks and getting enough bites at the international signing apple every year.  Sure, there are organizations that are better than others in terms of "developing" players they bring in and turning them into MLBers, but I think so much of that is the individual player's drive.  If organizations draft well (and that includes finding ways to get talented mid-round picks to sign on a consistent basis) to get players with MLB-caliber talent in the fold, it's a huge start.  Not having several consecutive years of top 5 draft picks because the MLB squad is awful makes it difficult to pick an ironclad impact talent every draft, but the Brewers seem to have figured out how to find collegiate prospects who turn into MLB regulars after ~2-3 years of minor league experience.

What we are also seeing is a dramatic improvement in the Brewers' instructional staffing and offseason development system over the past couple of seasons, which had long been an organizational afterthought in terms of staff and budget before Stearns overhauled it.  To me, that should be more important and prioritized than spending in MLB free agency in terms of budgeting, particularly for a small market organization.

What Stearns did in overhauling(or really creating) the Latin American development has changed this entire franchise. 

Our top pick since our system went from bottom ~5 to top 3 has been...Sal Frelick. 15th overall? Not exactly Dylan Crews and a lock to be a MLB contributor. 

They seemed to have the pitching development and the ability to turn offensive minded catchers into defensive savants(little hyperbole, but not much) was already well established, but I think in another year or two, we're going to find that Stearns was able to accomplish the same thing with these young bats(we already kinda know, but until they're actually on the field making an impact, there are people who will dismiss prospects).

 

It seems like the only place they could really do better at this point in time, or maybe where the Rays are doing better, is they stay on some of the guys they scouted like Caminero, a prospect just below Chourio...who it not appears is very possibly their SS of the future. A guy they traded...Tobias Meyers for. 60 hit, 60 power, and can play SS/.3B and then Curtis Mead...another guy they got out of rookie ball for a pitcher who's no longer a prospect.

This is why I hate the idea of trading a Yophery Rodriquez or Baez type prospect. The upside is so big, but a player in rookie league seldom has the trade value for it to make sense. 

And hey, despite the Rays front office being pillaged and them losing Friedman, they've got the infrastructure in place, so what Stearns put in place should remain, even if he does poach some of our scouts or whoever. 

 

Great time to be a Brewers fan.  

[CheeseheadInQC]

On 8/17/2023 at 2:52 PM, Robocaller said:

I've been thinking that for a while. Consider these players, who could probably all slot within the top 30 or so.*

Black 5'10"

Quero 5'11"

Valerio 5'5"

Chourio 5'11"

C. Rodriguez 5'8"

Wood 5'10"

Moore 5'8"

Lara 5'7"

Arienamo 5'8"

Guillarte 5'11"

O'Rae 5'7"

Norman 5'8"

Baez 5'9"

Ereu 5'10"

DiTuri 5'11"

* I don't think being 5'11" is limiting at all, unless the player is a 1B exclusively. My suspicion is that for players < 5'10," their ultimate ceiling is lower (on average) than their performance at the lower levels of the minors would suggest (say you have two guys who are legitimate prospects and are hitting about the same in A ball, and are the same age--I'd expect the 6'1" guy  to end up the better MLB player instead of the 5'8" one). Exceptions will continue to exist, of course.
 

And, of course, 5'10 is fine for a C or middle infielder.

Don’t restart the how tall is Tyler Black debate.

I have also seen Chourio listed as 6-1 some places as well.

With some it is a matter of who develops better as well. 6-foot plus Barrios and Severino got more money than Lara and a lot more than Baez. I believe Gregory Barrios was a bigger money signing than Areinamo and Luis Medina got more than Quero.

[nate82]

I still believe height is overrated in baseball or at least people seem to put too much weight into it.  I would rather draft or sign someone based on their athleticism and their bat skills for hitters and pitching mechanics for pitchers over what their height is or isn't. 

If the player is a 1B only type of a player sure take height into consideration.  But that only really tells me that they shouldn't be drafted high or signed to a large signing bonus.  If someone is a 1B only defensively I don't really want to draft or sign them unless they are an absolute can't miss prospect like a Harper, Ohtani, Bonds, Thomas, etc... 

[BrewerFan]

11 hours ago, CheeseheadInQC said:

Don’t restart the how tall is Tyler Black debate.

I have also seen Chourio listed as 6-1 some places as well.

With some it is a matter of who develops better as well. 6-foot plus Barrios and Severino got more money than Lara and a lot more than Baez. I believe Gregory Barrios was a bigger money signing than Areinamo and Luis Medina got more than Quero.

LOL...I didn't know there was a Tyler Black height debate, but....I'll let that lie.

And it'd stand to reason that Chourio's listed height may be inaccurate. You're picking these kids up when they're 16/17.

 

9 hours ago, nate82 said:

I still believe height is overrated in baseball or at least people seem to put too much weight into it.  I would rather draft or sign someone based on their athleticism and their bat skills for hitters and pitching mechanics for pitchers over what their height is or isn't. 

I don't think they're placing height over athletic ability or bat skills. I think when they're looking at young kids and trying to guess what a 14-15 year old kid will be(which is when most players agree to sign with a team)...you're projecting how good that guy is going to be.

Obviously we know with pitchers your frame and build play a significant role. If Logan Henderson was 6'4 when drafted, they'd be talking about how he could hopefully add a couple MPHers to his velo, but at 5'11, his ceiling is a bit limited. But it doesn't take away from how effective he's been this year.

But it's also the case with hitters. Look at the top 10 in OPS. You have Ohtani 6'4, Olson, 6'5, Freeman, 6'5, Tucker, 6'4. Everyone is 6'2 or taller but Acuna Jr and Mookie Betts.

Even guys who are more compact like we think of Trout, he's still 6'2 235.

Longer levers obviously are more conducive to hitting for power. There's more room to fill out. 

 

The players listed are almost all extremely talented with very high ceilings, but Lara has limited upside at 5'7, he's likely to not hit for much power. O'Rae, same. Carlos Rodriguez(CF)...very few guys under 5'10 have much in the way of power.

On the other hand, you get a big guy like Adams, Wiemer, Yophery, Bitonti(don't need the whole list again) and you've just got more upside. 

That doesn't mean you have stringent size criteria like the Packers do when it comes to drafting positions...it just means you're more likely to find top prospects who are over 6' than under.

[CheezWizHed]

On 8/19/2023 at 11:54 AM, nate82 said:

I still believe height is overrated in baseball or at least people seem to put too much weight into it.  

Nah... Just Prince Fielder...😂

[nate82]

19 hours ago, CheezWizHed said:

Nah... Just Prince Fielder...😂

I see what you did there.