Hader Trade

[Brewcrew82]

Here is what the Josh Hader trade has effectively become:

Josh Hader

for

Robert Gasser

William Contreras 

Joel Payamps

Justin Yeager

That's a top 5 catcher, a top 10 reliever, and a top 100 prospect, in addition to a high-strikeout "filler piece", for a 1 inning reliever with 1.5 years of control. I know some argue that we missed the playoffs last year because of the trade (I disagree and I think the evidence strongly backs that up), but you can't say that the decision to trade Hader when we did has become anything other than a massive success and a boon for the future of the franchise. Credit to Stearns, even bigger credit to Arnold. 

 

[Jopal78]

Depends on your perspective. It’s not just that they missed the post season, it’s wasting a year of the once in a generation starting pitching staff. Indisputably the air went out of the balloon when Hader was traded and they sleep walked the rest of the season into mediocrity. 

While Contreras is a good hitter, a Top 2 catcher is an exaggeration. It’s been a track meet when he’s behind the plate this season including de La Cruz stealing 3 consecutive bases (which is why Atlanta was okay dealing him). There’s a half dozen catchers who are better all around. 
 

Same deal with Payamps he’s been better than expected given he spent most of last year as freely available talent, but there’s not a GM in baseball that’s taking Payamps over the premier closers in the game. 
 

 

[Brewcrew82]

6 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

 

While Contreras is a good hitter, a Top 2 catcher is an exaggeration. It’s been a track meet when he’s behind the plate this season including de La Cruz stealing 3 consecutive bases (which is why Atlanta was okay dealing him). There’s a half dozen catchers who are better all around. 
 

Same deal with Payamps he’s been better than expected given he spent most of last year as freely available talent, but there’s not a GM in baseball that’s taking Payamps over the premier closers in the game. 
 

 

They had the exact same winning % from memorial day to the deadline as they did from the deadline to game 162....

I meant top 5 catcher with Contreras. And he has been, considering he's top 5 in fWAR. He's been one of the best defensive catchers in baseball this year. Brewers have made him into one of the best all-around catchers in the game. 

Payamps has also performed like a top 10 reliever in baseball this year...Always had the stuff. It was just a matter of the Brewers' staff coaching it up. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

8 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Depends on your perspective. It’s not just that they missed the post season, it’s wasting a year of the once in a generation starting pitching staff. Indisputably the air went out of the balloon when Hader was traded and they sleep walked the rest of the season into mediocrity. 

While Contreras is a good hitter, a Top 2 catcher is an exaggeration. It’s been a track meet when he’s behind the plate this season including de La Cruz stealing 3 consecutive bases (which is why Atlanta was okay dealing him). There’s a half dozen catchers who are better all around. 
 

Same deal with Payamps he’s been better than expected given he spent most of last year as freely available talent, but there’s not a GM in baseball that’s taking Payamps over the premier closers in the game. 
 

 

Ugh...Burnes was average down the stretch last year, Peralta/Ashby were injured/ineffective most of the 2nd half, Lauer sucked, and they weren't close to being good enough offensively to do anything last year in the playoffs.  Having Hader around would've done nothing at all to change those things.  Would it have kept Lauer and Williams from pouting?  Maybe.

Let's think about what not trading Hader would have the Brewers looking like right now...for starters they wouldn't be leading this division, and there'd be rumors daily about what the Brewers will get for Hader when they trade him at this year's deadline - "if they're lucky, maybe they could wind up with a quality young catcher, an advanced starting pitcher prospect, and some controllable young bullpen pieces...but that'd be too high an asking price for a 2 month rental."  Burnes would probably also be on the block, and that once in a generation starting pitching would be gone at least a full season earlier than it will be now.

[wiguy94]

12 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

While Contreras is a good hitter, a Top 2 catcher is an exaggeration. It’s been a track meet when he’s behind the plate this season including de La Cruz stealing 3 consecutive bases (which is why Atlanta was okay dealing him). There’s a half dozen catchers who are better all around. 
 

1. Contreras has above average pop time to 2B. A lot of the SB against him he hasn't even had a chance on and his framing still grades as one of the best in the MLB. He's 7th among MLB catchers in Fielding Run Value, 2nd in DRS, 2nd in Framing, and 2nd in Fangraphs catcher defense. 

2. He currently has a 119 wRC+ and is 4th in the MLB in catcher fWAR despite being 9th in catcher PA.

3. Factoring in all these things, he's easily been a top 5 catcher in the MLB this season.

[sveumrules]

14 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

Depends on your perspective. It’s not just that they missed the post season, it’s wasting a year of the once in a generation starting pitching staff.

2021 Starters
Burnes (6.3 rWAR) Woodruff (6.3 rWAR) Peralta (4.5 rWAR) Lauer (2.8 rWAR) Houser (2.5 rWAR)

2022 Starters
Burnes (5.3 rWAR) Woodruff (3.9 rWAR) Peralta (2.0 rWAR) Lauer (2.6 rWAR) Houser (-0.4 rWAR)

It truly was a once in a generation starting pitching staff, because they dropped off from 22.4 rWAR in 2021 down to 13.4 rWAR in 2022.

Those nine lost wins were a much bigger blow to the Brewers playoff hopes than trading Hader, who had been blowing up for two months before the deadline and didn’t find it again for another month after.

[Fear The Chorizo]

It’s been a track meet when he’s behind the plate this season....

It's been a track meet in general across most of the league this season - bigger bases, pickoff throw rules, and a general push towards fielding rosters with more speed have all contributed to more stolen bases.  The Brewers stole 96 bases last year...this year they're already at 78 despite a roster full of hitters who can't get on base - do all the catchers they face throw terribly, too?

 

[markedman5]

Not to mention we got 5 years of control with Contreras……including this season. 
4 years of Payamps

Pequero has a bunch of years too…….https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/milwaukee-brewers/elvis-peguero-74358/

 

[rickh150]

I doubt we get Hader for the drama alone. Who closes? Would CC be allowed, yep allowed, to use him in 8th or for multiple innings? The ol Bridge has burned on this one.

[markedman5]

Just now, rickh150 said:

I doubt we get Hader for the drama alone. Who closes? Would CC be allowed, yep allowed, to use him in 8th or for multiple innings? The ol Bridge has burned on this one.

You have as much chance of pitching this season for the Brewers as Hader does.

It’s not happening……and giving up prospect capital for him……when the bullpen is the least of our problems would be idiotic to be kind.

 

[BrewerFan]

5 minutes ago, markedman5 said:

Not to mention we got 5 years of control with Contreras……including this season. 
4 years of Payamps

Pequero has a bunch of years too…….https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/milwaukee-brewers/elvis-peguero-74358/

 

I thought Yeager was the reliever with the higher upside or more potential. Is he down with TJ? All I see is 7 day MiLB DL for elbow strain and then little else.

Would not be hard to imagine him breaking out and becoming a nice reliever for us in the future.

The trade worked out great. It certainly wasn't fun last year, but history has proven Stearns right. The ONLY thing that could have proven him more right was if Rogers had pitched up to his ability. I'd argue that Hader hadn't been "blowing up for two months," but he was SO bad right before the trade...3 straight outings giving up an ER, then 9 ERs over two outings while recording just a single out, it was pretty impressive to get what we did out of it.

 

 

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

2 minutes ago, BrewerFan said:

I thought Yeager was the reliever with the higher upside or more potential. Is he down with TJ? All I see is 7 day MiLB DL for elbow strain and then little else.

Would not be hard to imagine him breaking out and becoming a nice reliever for us in the future.

The trade worked out great. It certainly wasn't fun last year, but history has proven Stearns right. The ONLY thing that could have proven him more right was if Rogers had pitched up to his ability. I'd argue that Hader hadn't been "blowing up for two months," but he was SO bad right before the trade...3 straight outings giving up an ER, then 9 ERs over two outings while recording just a single out, it was pretty impressive to get what we did out of it.

 

 

 

Hader's 2022 August would've also poured gasoline onto the Brewer's slide (19.06 ERA in 8 games - he was actually held out of action for a bit to get right).

He definitely got back to his dominant self last September and thus far this season...but he was in the middle of an extended blow up last year at the worst time.  I'd call the trade in retrospect a win-win for both clubs and for Hader, as he's likely set to become a generationally wealthy man next offseason.

[edfunderburk]

This one is easy ... great trade by the Brewers ... grown men shouldn't pout like a few Brewers did after the trade ... the 2023 team would be in a much different place without Contreras & Payamps ... Gasser should add value next year & beyond ... GREAT trade! I don't miss Hader at all!

[dlk9s]

I'm going to start another Hader trade thread in three weeks.

[Underachiever]

I’m sure Williams pouted after the trade. “Oh no, my path to becoming a closer has just opened up!” Do you think he wanted to be the 8th inning guy his whole career? He pitched great the last two months of 2022.

 

[Underachiever]

40 minutes ago, dlk9s said:

I'm going to start another Hader trade thread in three weeks.

Why wait three weeks when he’s gonna be a Brewer within 10 days?

[Jake McKibbin]

Also given Hader is due a payday now no matter what, and it won't affect his arbitration value, much easier dynamic wise to fit him into 8th inning role. However the Brewers have almost no need for him as a late inning guy with the strength of their BP so far

[Jopal78]

12 hours ago, Brewcrew82 said:

They had the exact same winning % from memorial day to the deadline as they did from the deadline to game 162....

11 hours ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Ugh...Burnes was average down the stretch last year, Peralta/Ashby were injured/ineffective most of the 2nd half, Lauer sucked, and they weren't close to being good enough offensively to do anything last year in the playoffs.  Having Hader around would've done nothing at all to change those things.  Would it have kept Lauer and Williams from pouting?  Maybe.

Let's think about what not trading Hader would have the Brewers looking like right now...for starters they wouldn't be leading this division, and there'd be rumors daily about what the Brewers will get for Hader when they trade him at this year's deadline - "if they're lucky, maybe they could wind up with a quality young catcher, an advanced starting pitcher prospect, and some controllable young bullpen pieces...but that'd be too high an asking price for a 2 month rental."  Burnes would probably also be on the block, and that once in a generation starting pitching would be gone at least a full season earlier than it will be now.

 

If only the calculus were that easy. With Hader gone, everyone in the bullpen moved a step back, Williams from 8th inning to closer etc. 

Williams ended the year with a 1.93 era, which hides the fact his era was 2.85, and blew 20% of his save chances after becoming closer. Taylor Rogers pitched to a 5.48 and took 3 losses, Matt Bush blew 2 saves and took 3 losses, and the Brewers missed the post season by 3 games.

Would they have made the playoffs with Hader, who knows? But the point is, the bullpen, post Hader trade, was a major reason the Brewers missed the postseason, players who didn’t succeed in their new roles, players who performed poorly overall in replacing Hader.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

If only the calculus were that easy. With Hader gone, everyone in the bullpen moved a step back, Williams from 8th inning to closer etc. 

Williams ended the year with a 1.93 era, which hides the fact his era was 2.85, took a loss, and blew 20% of his save chances. Taylor Rogers pitched to a 5.48 and took 3 losses, Matt Bush blew 2 saves and took 3 losses and pitched, and the Brewers missed the post season by 3 games.

So really the point is, the bullpen, post Hader trade, was a major reason the Brewers missed the postseason, players who didn’t succeed in their new roles, players who performed poorly overall in replacing Hader.

This ignores that Hader was equally bad both before and after the trade. He had a 7.31 ERA for the Padres and was removed from closer duties for quite awhile.

I think it's pretty obvious that the clubhouse suffered a significant blow with the departure of Hader. Did that knock the Brewers out of the postseason? Possibly. It's impossible to quantify such things.

But the actual on-field performance of Hader or his replacements were not what caused the Brewers to lose out on October.

And what the organization turned Hader into is nothing short of astounding.

[Fear The Chorizo]

14 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

If only the calculus were that easy. With Hader gone, everyone in the bullpen moved a step back, Williams from 8th inning to closer etc. 

Williams ended the year with a 1.93 era, which hides the fact his era was 2.85, and blew 20% of his save chances after becoming closer. Taylor Rogers pitched to a 5.48 and took 3 losses, Matt Bush blew 2 saves and took 3 losses, and the Brewers missed the post season by 3 games.

Would they have made the playoffs with Hader, who knows? But the point is, the bullpen, post Hader trade, was a major reason the Brewers missed the postseason, players who didn’t succeed in their new roles, players who performed poorly overall in replacing Hader.

 

Hader blew up in about the same number of games with the Padres as the list you mentioned above...the difference is the Padres had the horses to slug their way into the playoffs and their starting pitching got hot, and the Brewers couldn't hit or pitch consistently enough in innings 1-8 for them to be a viable playoff team. Would you at the very least acknowledge most of the Brewers warts with starting pitching and offense down the stretch had zilch to do with Hader being on or off the roster?  

[Jopal78]

6 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

This ignores that Hader was equally bad both before and after the trade. He had a 7.31 ERA for the Padres and was removed from closer duties for quite awhile.

I think it's pretty obvious that the clubhouse suffered a significant blow with the departure of Hader. Did that knock the Brewers out of the postseason? Possibly. It's impossible to quantify such things.

But the actual on-field performance of Hader or his replacements were not what caused the Brewers to lose out on October.

And what the organization turned Hader into is nothing short of astounding.

I disagree. Hader had 2 bad outings for San Diego, including one where he gave up 6 runs in 1/3 of an inning (50% of the earned runs he allowed with the Padres). 14 of his 18 appearances last season with the Padres were scoreless. If you want to call that “bad” it’s your right, but it’s not being honest. 

Hader is the best left handed reliever in the game, maybe the best relief pitcher. I would hope and expect the Brewers to land quality players in return when trading away a superstar, especially one who was controllable.
 

I’m not going to denigrate Hader to clap them on the back for doing what they’re supposed to do, and I won’t overlook that the timing of the trade caused or contributed to cause them to miss the playoffs, at the same time they publicly declare they want as many “bites at the apple” as possible. 

[Jopal78]

14 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Hader blew up in about the same number of games with the Padres as the list you mentioned above...the difference is the Padres had the horses to slug their way into the playoffs and their starting pitching got hot, and the Brewers couldn't hit or pitch consistently enough in innings 1-8 for them to be a viable playoff team. Would you at the very least acknowledge most of the Brewers warts with starting pitching and offense down the stretch had zilch to do with Hader being on or off the roster?  

Incorrect, check the stat sheets. Hader blew two saves for the Padres. Took one loss. As mentioned a moment ago, 14 of 18 appearances were scoreless. Of course a relief pitchers ERA is going to be bad if they get blown up for 6 earned runs in 1/3 of an inning.

The Brewers missed last year, not solely because of Hader, but changing the composition of the bullpen did play a role. To suggest otherwise and congratulate them for getting good players in return for a 5 time all star pitcher, is kind of silly.

[StearnsFTW]

I'm just glad this topic is finally being discussed.  

[Fear The Chorizo]

36 minutes ago, Jopal78 said:

I disagree. Hader had 2 bad outings for San Diego, including one where he gave up 6 runs in 1/3 of an inning (50% of the earned runs he allowed with the Padres). 14 of his 18 appearances last season with the Padres were scoreless. If you want to call that “bad” it’s your right, but it’s not being honest. 

Hader is the best left handed reliever in the game, maybe the best relief pitcher. I would hope and expect the Brewers to land quality players in return when trading away a superstar, especially one who was controllable.
 

I’m not going to denigrate Hader to clap them on the back for doing what they’re supposed to do, and I won’t overlook that the timing of the trade caused or contributed to cause them to miss the playoffs, at the same time they publicly declare they want as many “bites at the apple” as possible. 

I didn't denigrate Hader at all either, my main point is if the Brewers need to make these type of trades to acquire as much value as possible before key players get too expensive for their budget/leave via free agency, they did really well for themselves by trading Hader in July 2022.  And, since it's impossible to prove a point about something that didn't happen (in this case whether or not the Brewers would've made the playoffs by not trading Hader last year, and if that even would have set them up better longterm as an organization than where they are now), I'll just agree to disagree with your overall take that appears to be the Brewers would've been better off by not trading him last July and leave it at that.

[Jopal78]

1 hour ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

I didn't denigrate Hader at all either, my main point is if the Brewers need to make these type of trades to acquire as much value as possible before key players get too expensive for their budget/leave via free agency, they did really well for themselves by trading Hader in July 2022.  And, since it's impossible to prove a point about something that didn't happen (in this case whether or not the Brewers would've made the playoffs by not trading Hader last year, and if that even would have set them up better longterm as an organization than where they are now), I'll just agree to disagree with your overall take that appears to be the Brewers would've been better off by not trading him last July and leave it at that.

I understand the point: the original topic was “we got good players for Hader it was a massive success”.

I guess my point is: when trading a superstar relief pitcher, the expectation is to get good players in return. So meeting expectations doesn’t make it “a massive success” and depending on your perspective and belief that trading Hader caused or contributed to cause them to miss the playoffs it’s probably like most trades more of a push.