Is Brice Turang a Major League Hitter? How concerned are you?

[Fear The Chorizo]

2 minutes ago, Jake McKibbin said:

I think one issue may potentially be that he's potentially not a great Shortstop in the bigs, -2 OAA in an admittedly very small sample size of 29 plays at the position.

He also has a BABIP of .251, which i'd expect to improve some, with his xBA at least .213 instead o.199, and a similar jump for his slugging percentage.

he absolutely roped a ball yesterday with two outs and two men on that would've been a double five yards either side, a screaming line drive straight at Fraley. So I think he's getting there, but certainly with regular time should be re-assessed in a month's time

His xSlg has jumped from .267 in June to .355 in July, so there's some progress there too in terms of the quality of contact he's making, but definitely needs to fill the swing and miss at the top of the zone

He has always profiled as a plus defender at SS - he will be able to stick there defensively just fine...not putting any stock in what just 29 mlb chances there so far this year would project.

[Jake McKibbin]

4 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

He has always profiled as a plus defender at SS - he will be able to stick there defensively just fine...not putting any stock in what just 29 mlb chances there so far this year would project.

Absolutely, though I do think we've been absolutely blessed by Adames at short in just how much range he has, and the arm as well (which I don't think Turang's is quite as strong)

That being said if he can handle it well enough, I'd be happy with that, especially from a defense first position, and some hopefully okay keystone players coming through ( would love EBJ to kick on)

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

First of all, Ganter’s first three years in the majors he came off the bench, Turang has been a starter so the early years are actually not comparable at all either. I cited to Ganter’s last year in the majors to show how poorly Turang has played. That a washed up 39 year old Gantner never known for his bat, put up a similar  stat line, as Turang this year. 

 

So rather than comparing them at the same age...you're cherry picking and using Jim Gantner when he was 39...because that...just obviously makes more sense?

It's tiring always chasing these goalposts. 

You already have a comp. His production at the same age for Gantner.

For SOME reason Gantner 

9 hours ago, Jopal78 said:

I don’t know if a Gantner comparison is apt as he was an ok hitter as a young man, then racked up a huge number of PAs in his mid to late 30s with poor results. Ganter’s final season at 39 is on par with what Turang’s doing.

So which is it? He was a good hitter as a young man(23, 24 and 25 putting up the same OPS+ as Turang) or those years don't count because he was in and out of the lineup, up and down to from the Big Leagues to the Minor Leagues?

 

I'll just compare the young Gantner to the young Turang rather than arbitrarily picking what Gantner did the last year of his career when retirement was on the horizon. 

1 hour ago, Jopal78 said:

As for Turang, the Brewers certainly want to get something for their bonus money, but a sub .600 OPS won’t cut it for long in today’s major leagues, so the real question is how much rope he gets. 

Yes. I would assume the Brewers would 'like' to get something from their bonus money. 

I'm sure that's far less of a priority than just getting production from 2B, but that's pretty obvious statement. I think they'd "like" to get something in the way of production from every player they draft and develop.

And yes. His rookie numbers won't be good enough long term. But for some reason it's like people forget all of baseball and assume a 23 year old rookie isn't going to improve.

[jerichoholicninja]

I'm wondering the same thing about Adames more and more.

[BrewerFan]

8 hours ago, Jim French Stepstool said:

With the other things he brings to the table, I'd be thrilled with that. Not saying it can't happen. But if he hits two-eighty- something up here with almost 80 RBI, takes his walks & only gets thrown out twice all year stealing along with fielding his position the way he does, he's probably an all-star.

 

When I'm talking about his numbers, I'm not really considering RBIs as that's more of a result of those around him, or the number of times he gets caught stealing, I'm talking about his slash line. I think that's closer to where he ends up. I'm not sure that'd make him an All-Star in today's game with...all the talent there is out there at SS, that's a bit of a reach. 

But I think he'll figure it out. Wathing him at Nashville, he was constantly grinding and getting better and I don't think that stops at 23 in his first taste of MLB.

 

This is off topic, but I also think Monasterio is going to be an outstanding utility player. I don't expect him to maintain anything close to ~290/.380, but he could drop 40 points and be VERY valuable. A natural SS who draws walks, good speed, very good defense. Hopefully he can maintain his level of play. Saw an old scouting report that said his floor was a good utility player and if he could hit for average, he could be an everyday SS(and we know that he can also play 2B). 

[BrewerFan]

9 minutes ago, jerichoholicninja said:

I'm wondering the same thing about Adames more and more.

I hate that this is a legitimate response for Willy.

Hopefully a huge finish answers some of these questions.

[Jim French Stepstool]

1 hour ago, BrewerFan said:

 I'm not sure that'd make him an All-Star in today's game with...all the talent there is out there at SS, that's a bit of a reach. 

 

I was referring to if he stayed at 2B & put up similar numbers.

[Playing Catch]

I was always concerned that Turang, the prospect, would never hit enough to be a starter on a first-division club. However after watching Turang, the big-league 2nd baseman, I absolutely think he will reach that level. I'm not sure he'll ever become a league average bat, but the rest of his game is really, really good. His defense saves runs and wins games. His speed is 96th percentile.

Being that he's on the strong side of the platoon, and brings so much to the table in the other facets, I believe we'll end up feeling like he's an "important" contributor, if not a star.

Someone else mentioned his BABIP. His BB/K rates haven't been like in the minors. He seems to "get it," and have a good baseball mind. I just think he's going to figure it out and be an 85-range wRC+ for a long time with a couple of league average seasons before he leaves the Brewers.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Turang has also put together some really good ABs lately. Scorched an out in the 8th last night. Had a bad K early.

He's not an MLB hitters yet. But there's progress. When the rest of his game is as good as it is, that's enough.

[Robocaller]

Typical rookies suck.

Anyone who  has written off Turang simply is unaware of history.

He might never be an all star, but barring injury or emotional breakdown, he should be a solid major leaguer.

His BABIP is .251. Increase that to normal levels and he should be batting .240, which everyone should be fine with, for a rookie.

Having said that, I would also send him down and bring up Toro or Urias.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Turang since the AS Break is carrying about a 0.650 OPS, roughly 70 points higher than his brutal 1st half based mostly on a much better walk rate and a slight uptick in batting average.  That production alone makes him a valuable everyday player after including his defense and baserunning.

Turang over the last two weeks is sporting a mid 700s OPS, with both batting average and slugging increases being influenced by closer to a league average BABIP - that type of offense from him makes him a 3-4 WAR player at shortstop or 2B.  

Looking back at Turang's progression through the minor leagues, this is a pattern for him at each level.  He's figuring it out...

[kestrel79]

I'm staying positive and think he'll be fine. Reminds me of JJ Hardy's first year where he hit around .200. Anyone have those stats to compare to Turang? And Turang is a better defender.

[Austin Tatious]

It’s way too early to make any pronouncements on Turang.   He has always been challenged and adjusts level by level.   That’s the stage we are seeing with him right now.   We don’t know what it’s going to look like when it comes out of the oven yet.  He’s scrawny so I’m not sure he’s going to ever deliver much pop but can he develop a hit tool with OBP, baserunning and defense?  I see potential where others see negativity.   TBD.  

[wiguy94]

56 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Turang since the AS Break is carrying about a 0.650 OPS, roughly 70 points higher than his brutal 1st half based mostly on a much better walk rate and a slight uptick in batting average.  That production alone makes him a valuable everyday player after including his defense and baserunning.

Turang over the last two weeks is sporting a mid 700s OPS, with both batting average and slugging increases being influenced by closer to a league average BABIP - that type of offense from him makes him a 3-4 WAR player at shortstop or 2B.  

Looking back at Turang's progression through the minor leagues, this is a pattern for him at each level.  He's figuring it out...

Turang has drawn the ire of many here including myself, but it does seem like he’s gotten more comfortable since he returned from AAA. 

 

Before option - 177 PA, .248 wOBA, .257 xwOBA, 52 wRC+, 6.2% BB-rate, 27.1% K-rate

 

After option - 99 PA, .290 wOBA, .304 xwOBA, 79 wRC+, 13.1% BB-rate, 16.2% K-rate

 

He’s also chasing less and whiffing less since returning from AAA. Are those numbers good? Not really but they are at least respectable. If his wOBA matched his xwOBA since returning, he would have around a 90-100 wRC+ which with his defense and base running would be a solid regular. Also over his last 15 games and 50 PA (7/16 through 8/1) he has a 98 wRC+ with an OBP% over .350

 

He still needs to improve the quality of contact but the BB and K numbers since returning are far more what you would expect from Turang and they give him a decent floor to work with at the plate.

If you look at the picture below, Turang’s rolling xwOBA over his most recent 50 PA is actually above league average and over his last 100 PA is nearing league average.

 

[nate82]

Turang will always be a BABIP driven hitter and when he has his chase rate low he will be good enough offensively.  When his chase and K rates start to rise he will be replacement level offensively.

The power will probably never come but that should be fine for your #8 or #9 hitter.  Frelick will probably be the same though he looks to have better bat to ball skills than Turang.  Frelick should have a higher average but both look to be weak power wise.

[Underachiever]

On 7/24/2023 at 10:18 PM, adambr2 said:

He's got a Craig Counsell type ceiling. Might be able to skate through and have a long MLB career on the strength of defense and positional versatility. I'm not concerned because my expectations weren't very high.

Just one of those 1st round picks that never really lived up to the billing, while also not being a bust, because hey he did make it here. But is he ever going to be a core player, no he is not. 

Your use of the past tense is baffling to me. He's had 100 games! Look at Yount's numbers: .593 OPS in his third season. I love watching Turang play defense. The lineup could support his bat if there weren't 2-3 other guys struggling just as much. I will stay on the Brice Turang bandwagon.

[BrewerFan]

4 hours ago, kestrel79 said:

I'm staying positive and think he'll be fine. Reminds me of JJ Hardy's first year where he hit around .200. Anyone have those stats to compare to Turang? And Turang is a better defender.

Hardy is another guy who struggled early...though I'm not sure Turang is a better defender than Hardy. Hardy was an elite defensive SS, GGer and actually reminds me a bit of Willy in how he plays. Great first step and a cannon on him. 

[BrewerFan]

1 hour ago, Underachiever said:

Your use of the past tense is baffling to me. He's had 100 games! Look at Yount's numbers: .593 OPS in his third season. I love watching Turang play defense. The lineup could support his bat if there weren't 2-3 other guys struggling just as much. I will stay on the Brice Turang bandwagon.

I did not see that and that is really incredibly ridiculous to me.

We're very reactionary. I'm sure there were a lot of fans writing Burnes off after '19 season.

 

[JohnBriggs12]

He's got to do two things.  He needs to get stronger, and he needs to use his speed more.  The latter is not so much his fault but the bottom of the Brewer lineup has speed and they won't try to steal with Yelich hitting because they want him hitting with space on the right side of the infield.  That's a losing strategy.  I'd prefer a runner on 2nd any time and having space between the first baseman and the line for Yelich.

[homer]

10 minutes ago, JohnBriggs12 said:

He's got to do two things.  He needs to get stronger, and he needs to use his speed more.  The latter is not so much his fault but the bottom of the Brewer lineup has speed and they won't try to steal with Yelich hitting because they want him hitting with space on the right side of the infield.  That's a losing strategy.  I'd prefer a runner on 2nd any time and having space between the first baseman and the line for Yelich.

Kind of hard to steal when you are barely getting on base to begin with.

[Jose Cardenal]

JJ Hardy is a really good comparable to the struggles Turang has experienced so far.  I almost forgot how badly Hardy hit at first. Through June of his rookie year Hardy's line was .182/.290/.264.  That is really awful.  Hardy picked it up in the second half and ended the year at .247/.327/.384 helped by OPSing at .949 in the month of September.

Not sure if Turang can get his numbers up to Hardy's final rookie numbers (especially without as much power as Hardy had) but he seems to be slowly getting better and looks like he wont be a hole in the lineup the remainder of the year. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

4 hours ago, homer said:

Kind of hard to steal when you are barely getting on base to begin with.

Turang's 0.350 OBP since the AS Break should help that cause

[homer]

3 minutes ago, Fear The Chorizo said:

Turang's 0.350 OBP since the AS Break should help that cause

I was more referring to his "bottom of the order" comment. Turang has 12 steals which isn't all that bad. 

[shanedog19]

I realize this is a Brice Turang thread, but I am much more concerned with Willy Adames right now. If you want to examine the struggles of the offense, the conversation should begin with him.

[KeithStone53151]

Turang about to turn his hitting completely around now that they traded Urias away so he can have his number of choice back...