2023-24 Offseason Ideas

[Jake McKibbin]

4 hours ago, jay87shot said:

I know this is a sore subject but where are we on Trevor Bauer. A video he put out with evidence made it seem the woman was out to get him. If we trade Burnes, Bauer could be an interesting 1 or 2 year high upside starter, maybe like 1/8 with incentives and some option structures. On top of it Milwaukee would be a low key place for him to step back in, assuming that his incident(s) weren't as bad as they were made out to be. 

Again this is only if he is exonerated on some level. On top of that Bauer is still a turd sandwich but could be an interesting fix into keeping up the rotation and trading Burnes or at least fixing half measures.

That's the intent of the video he released, but certainly wouldn't expect him to display all the facts of the case. We'll never fully know, but there was an investigation by the Dodgers into it, and they cut him loose despite not being obligated to, which speaks volumes for me personally

I'd also add with Grissom, he's been really really poor defensively, and I don't know I rate his bat quite so highly as his initial spurt with the Braves suggested, but the defense is really bad. I can't see the Brewers wanting that

[jay87shot]

Would Jake Cronenworth be of interest to anyone? I feel like he is miscast at 1B and would make a solid long term 2B. The Pads could be a team to eat some of the long term (maybe just a couple million). He was a back to back 4 war player.

[wiguy94]

22 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

Would Jake Cronenworth be of interest to anyone? I feel like he is miscast at 1B and would make a solid long term 2B. The Pads could be a team to eat some of the long term (maybe just a couple million). He was a back to back 4 war player.

No thanks. He's seriously trending down and is on the books through his age 36 season. Even if the Padres eat salary, that is a contract that could be negative value for plenty of seasons.

[LouisEly]

On 10/10/2023 at 3:46 AM, Jake McKibbin said:

I'd also add with Grissom, he's been really really poor defensively, and I don't know I rate his bat quite so highly as his initial spurt with the Braves suggested, but the defense is really bad. I can't see the Brewers wanting that

If there's reason to believe that Grissom will be better defensively at 2B, that would be a good deal for the Brewers.  I think one of the best ways the Brewers can add a bat is by trading one of Adames/Turang to a team who needs a true SS for a bigger bat at 2B.

Grissom is only 22 years old.  His minor league slash line is .320/.407/.477 with a 153:201 BB:K ratio and the only time his K% was above 20% was in the majors in 2022.  He has always been young for his league.  There's a lot to like about his hitting profile, even if ultimately he needs to be moved to RF.

[MrTPlush]

On 10/10/2023 at 3:46 AM, Jake McKibbin said:

We'll never fully know, but there was an investigation by the Dodgers into it, and they cut him loose despite not being obligated to, which speaks volumes for me personally

 

That they basically had zero choice because of media pressure and probably the league wanting them to banish him? Probably even more accurate, the fact they knew the investigation (and his suspension) would drag out so long he would never suit up for them again anyway so why on earth would you keep him around?

[MrTPlush]

Last offseason, I thought they should have sold off (notably Burnes/Adames). This offseason, I think they should return all the major three. Maybe make an improvement if they are controllable. 

Why? Because 2/3 of those guys won't have much trade value/interest that is going to make trading them and punting on 2024 worth it. Woodruff is hurt and Adames is coming off a crummy year offensively. Burnes could be traded, but will it be worth potentially throwing away the 2024 season? If 2/3 are seemingly destined to return...just bring back the other guy and have a legitimate shot at a WS title. It seems like a very 2011 season situation where you might just bring back Fielder (Burnes) and take the draft comp. Unless the season implodes and you trade them all in July or so. 

If the return is big, knock yourself out and trade them...but I don't know that the returns will be that great. 

[Ro Mueller]

I'd imagine that the relative success of Colin Rea and Julio Teheran in 2023, coupled with uncertainty surrounding Burnes, Woodruff and Ashby going into 2024, should make the Brewers a relatively attractive destination for starting pitchers who struggled in 2023 and face the prospect of having to sign a minor league contract for a chance to bounce back in 2024.

I ran some numbers to identify 10 pitchers who may fit this profile:

1. Noah Syndergaard
2. Adrian Sampson - injured most of 2023
3. Spencer Turnbull (e.g. if he's non-tendered)
4. Luke Weaver
5. Chris Flexen
6. Madison Bumgarner
7. Mike Minor - didn't pitch in 2023
8. Michael Pineda - didn't pitch in 2023
9. Joe Ross - severely limited by injuries in 2022-23
10. Danny Duffy - injured most of 2022, only played in minors in 2023

[jay87shot]

11 hours ago, damuelle said:

I'd imagine that the relative success of Colin Rea and Julio Teheran in 2023, coupled with uncertainty surrounding Burnes, Woodruff and Ashby going into 2024, should make the Brewers a relatively attractive destination for starting pitchers who struggled in 2023 and face the prospect of having to sign a minor league contract for a chance to bounce back in 2024.

I ran some numbers to identify 10 pitchers who may fit this profile:

1. Noah Syndergaard
2. Adrian Sampson - injured most of 2023
3. Spencer Turnbull (e.g. if he's non-tendered)
4. Luke Weaver
5. Chris Flexen
6. Madison Bumgarner
7. Mike Minor - didn't pitch in 2023
8. Michael Pineda - didn't pitch in 2023
9. Joe Ross - severely limited by injuries in 2022-23
10. Danny Duffy - injured most of 2022, only played in minors in 2023

I like Turnbull, MadBum, Minor, Ross, and Duffy best out of that group but agree all of them could be interesting last chance type pitchers. 

If Woody ends up injured for a good portion of the year would it make sense to do a contract like Tyler Glasnow last year 2 years like 25 million, 5 for 2024 and 20 for 2025 (maybe an opt out for both sides somehow). Unless he is out all year it would be hard to non-tender him, but we wouldn't also want to pay him a full year salary for 10-15 starts and then lose him to free agency.

If Woody is out for a while I would look at signing Luis Severino to a 1 year deal, he would be a pitcher with great stuff who could be had relatively cheaply (say 1/8 with incentives to 15) with some incentives and make a huge difference. Obviously he wasn't good last year but getting out of NY and getting with our pitching staff could get him back to that 1/2 style starter. He still throws upper 90's with 4 quality pitches and could even shift to the bullpen later in the year if he struggles a bit.

 

[brewmann04]

Arnold said he look for pitching 

[jay87shot]

5 hours ago, brewmann04 said:

Arnold said he look for pitching 

I think it really is looking at long term pitching with Burnes, Woody, and Houser FA's after next year and Miley, Rea, and Teheran in FA this year the 2025 rotation after Peralta is really a question mark. Something like Peralta, Ashby, Misi, Rodriguez, Gasser could be amazing but also has lots possible hurdles to jump. I am sure we will get a solid starter one way or another this offseason and hopefully turn a reliever into a bat or upside prospect. With how good we have been at finding and fixing broken relievers I would probably even trade 2 relievers if the value in trades is there. I really like Vieira and still have hope for Ethan Small and Clayton Andrews, not to mention I think Tobias Myers would be a great candidate to have a huge boost in value changing from the rotation to bullpen. Not to mention adding another player or two in the mold of Bryse Wilson, Trevor Megill, and Hoby Milner

[Jose Cardenal]

With Woodruff news today I am all in on tearing down (I was leaning that way even before today).  

The last 6 years have been great.  The best 6 year window the franchise has ever had.  That window is now closed.  It is time to build a team for a '26 - '30 window.

Trade Burnes.  Trade Adames.  Trade Williams.  Trade Peralta.  Potentially trade Yelich (likely paired with Peralta)  

I'd focus on pitching as the return.  Guys like: Snelling (SD), Frasso (LAD), Harrison/Whisenhunt (SF), Painter/Abel (Phi)

Adding 2-3 of these guys (along with other pieces) to Miso, Ashby, Gasser, Rodriquez would give the Brewers a nice chance of having a strong 1-3 rotation by '26.

Let the position prospects prove what they can or can not do in '24-25 and then fill in where needed with the payroll space that will be available.

[Brewcrew82]

20 minutes ago, Jose Cardenal said:

With Woodruff news today I am all in on tearing down (I was leaning that way even before today).  

The last 6 years have been great.  The best 6 year window the franchise has ever had.  That window is now closed.  It is time to build a team for a '26 - '30 window.

Trade Burnes.  Trade Adames.  Trade Williams.  Trade Peralta.  Potentially trade Yelich (likely paired with Peralta)  

I'd focus on pitching as the return.  Guys like: Snelling (SD), Frasso (LAD), Harrison/Whisenhunt (SF), Painter/Abel (Phi)

Adding 2-3 of these guys (along with other pieces) to Miso, Ashby, Gasser, Rodriquez would give the Brewers a nice chance of having a strong 1-3 rotation by '26.

Let the position prospects prove what they can or can not do in '24-25 and then fill in where needed with the payroll space that will be available.

They don't need to do all this. All of their top prospects are at or close to the majors. This is an organization that has said their number one priority is to be competitive year in and year out. 

And you would especially be doing more harm than good to the future of this franchise if you packaged Peralta with Yelich. 

[jay87shot]

11 hours ago, Jose Cardenal said:

With Woodruff news today I am all in on tearing down (I was leaning that way even before today).  

The last 6 years have been great.  The best 6 year window the franchise has ever had.  That window is now closed.  It is time to build a team for a '26 - '30 window.

Trade Burnes.  Trade Adames.  Trade Williams.  Trade Peralta.  Potentially trade Yelich (likely paired with Peralta)  

I'd focus on pitching as the return.  Guys like: Snelling (SD), Frasso (LAD), Harrison/Whisenhunt (SF), Painter/Abel (Phi)

Adding 2-3 of these guys (along with other pieces) to Miso, Ashby, Gasser, Rodriquez would give the Brewers a nice chance of having a strong 1-3 rotation by '26.

Let the position prospects prove what they can or can not do in '24-25 and then fill in where needed with the payroll space that will be available.

I don't think I'd call it a rebuild but I am more ready than ever to do a re-tool. I am still in the trade Burnes side of things but now the return needs to be a mlb ready pitcher over IF. This also makes trading Devin more likely as well because he will likely get the most back after Burnes. In the process of trading those we may as well trade Willy. In doing that we save like 50 million so we could also take on a contract by trade or through free agency. If don't right we don't need to give up on next year but our team will like more like the Reds of last year with young upside pitching and bats all over the place.

[Playing Catch]

I think I change my mind on this offseason every other day, so I reserve the right to change my mind yet again, but today I'm thinking that the Brewers bring up all the kids to start the season, Chourio, Black, Gasser, maybe even Misiorowski as a long-man out of the pen, but keep Burnes and Williams.

This would allow the Brewers to better understand where the kids are at (including our 2nd year guys) before the trade deadline. I don't mind the idea of trading Burnes and/or Williams in the offseason, but the issue is that I don't know what I want in return. Will the Brewers continue to produce arms with their alchemy, or should they trade for SPs? Will Chourio and Black be middle-of-the-order hitters, or merely decent starting players?

If the kids are alright, and the Brewers are contending, great! Roll with it! If the kids struggle in the first half, the Brewers won't be contending anyway, so trading Burnes and Williams at the deadline will still net big returns. I believe it was Doug Melvin that used to say that the returns for pitching were better at the deadline, and the returns for hitters is better in the off-season.

I am just nervous about how long they can rely on elite pitching and defense when we may run dry of elite pitching, and I'm nervous that if Chourio and Black end up just being okay, that the Brewers will want to trade Burnes/Williams for a middle-of-the-order bat.

[Playing Catch]

It IS interesting to me just how much the Woodruff injury impacts what they do this offseason.

[wibadgers23]

Brewers receive:

Coby Mayo

Samuel Basallo

Chayce McDermott

 

Orioles receive:

Corbin Burnes 

Devin Williams

[BrewCrew8675309]

16 hours ago, wibadgers23 said:

Brewers receive:

Coby Mayo

Samuel Basallo

Chayce McDermott

 

Orioles receive:

Corbin Burnes 

Devin Williams

I am not saying no to this but I would like to see Churio and Povich (lhp) come back from BAL with McDermott and Mayo. Mayo, Wilken, Black, Turang, Monty, Quero and the freshmen in the OF means that July could be a time to pick up a CC Sabathia type impact ace if we are doing well.

 

[BrewerFan]

On 10/9/2023 at 8:07 PM, Brewcrew82 said:

I'd also see if you can rip Abel or Painter off Dombrowski and the Phils, who are going to lose Kimbrel in the offseason.

Are we suggesting Abel or Painter for Burnes AND Williams or is this just Williams?

I suggested Williams because I thought it might push a team over the top on a trade for a pitcher of that caliber, but if you're saying just for Williams, this kinda feels like the Hader proposals all over again.

Painter was the top pitching prospect in Baseball before TJ this past year(which...we all know is relatively safe and he's on his way back from). He's kinda like how we hope Misiorowski develops. Triple Digit velo, carries it deep, 65 command, 3 potential plus pitching... and Abel isn't far behind.

 

Those are the exact pitchers I'd be targeting. Just one of them and then a couple lottery tickets for Burnes+Williams, but again, I don't think we get anywhere near that for just Williams.

On 10/9/2023 at 8:06 PM, wibadgers23 said:

Would love Mayo and I know the Orioles have historically held onto their prospects but I could see them being more aggressive going forward.

This as well. We traded Hader...who was a better, more dominant reliever for Gasser...who's developed into a fringe top 100 pitcher, and Ruiz who's a nice player, and we got lucky that the As wanted him involved in the Contreras trade(and then Rogers who became redundant and Lamet who was a salary dump), but looking at that package, it doesn't approximate the value of a top ~25 power hitting 3B prospect with a 70 arm.

 

I think if we trade them individually, we should probably prepare ourselves for an underwhelming return for Williams. 

I'd be happy if the Rangers sent up Lieter for Williams. He pitches in an incredibly hitter friendly league, has big time stuff, was a top 100 prospect and could slide in as a top of the rotation type pitcher...after the "lab," goes to work on him, or Porter. 

But hey, if we can get any of these packages for Williams and then turn around and give Uribe a Aaron Ashby type contract extension. Make it 6 years 24M and 2 option years(say 10/14 for inflation) and I think we're better off in the short term and better off in the long term. He is a guy who only signed for 85K, so...certainly has ample reason to jump at the potential of 24M guaranteed while the Brewers get their closer through his prime years(and you increase his trade value if you're looking to do something down the road).

[wiguy94]

On 10/12/2023 at 7:13 PM, damuelle said:

I'd imagine that the relative success of Colin Rea and Julio Teheran in 2023, coupled with uncertainty surrounding Burnes, Woodruff and Ashby going into 2024, should make the Brewers a relatively attractive destination for starting pitchers who struggled in 2023 and face the prospect of having to sign a minor league contract for a chance to bounce back in 2024.

I ran some numbers to identify 10 pitchers who may fit this profile:

1. Noah Syndergaard
2. Adrian Sampson - injured most of 2023
3. Spencer Turnbull (e.g. if he's non-tendered)
4. Luke Weaver
5. Chris Flexen
6. Madison Bumgarner
7. Mike Minor - didn't pitch in 2023
8. Michael Pineda - didn't pitch in 2023
9. Joe Ross - severely limited by injuries in 2022-23
10. Danny Duffy - injured most of 2022, only played in minors in 2023

Zach Plesac just elected free agency. Could be another option in this type mold.

[LouisEly]

2 hours ago, wiguy94 said:

Zach Plesac just elected free agency. Could be another option in this type mold.

He could be a decent back-end-of-the-rotation starter who could really benefit from having a great defense with a rangy OF behind him.  He's not a strikeout pitcher, and is kind of like Houser, in that depending on where the balls are hit he could go 7IP 3H or get BABIP'd to death in the first four innings. 

[Austin Tatious]

The Brewers making a deal with Baltimore would probably be the least surprising scenario.  Baltimore has surplus young talent and can’t forge a pathway for them all.  They have been under pressure to make a deal for veteran pitching for awhile.  

But it’s not a lock.  First, we don’t know if they’d deal Burnsie with Woody hurt.  Second, you’d like good young pitching talent coming back and the O’s are light there.  The Brewers can drive a hard bargain considering they have no need to do the swap and Baltimore doesn’t have precisely what they want.  All in all, I think Baltimore will be motivated to potentially overpay with what they do have.  They’ve been under the microscope for not having already done it.  

[BrewCrew8675309]

12 hours ago, Austin Tatious said:

The Brewers making a deal with Baltimore would probably be the least surprising scenario.  Baltimore has surplus young talent and can’t forge a pathway for them all.  They have been under pressure to make a deal for veteran pitching for awhile.  

But it’s not a lock.  First, we don’t know if they’d deal Burnsie with Woody hurt.  Second, you’d like good young pitching talent coming back and the O’s are light there.  The Brewers can drive a hard bargain considering they have no need to do the swap and Baltimore doesn’t have precisely what they want.  All in all, I think Baltimore will be motivated to potentially overpay with what they do have.  They’ve been under the microscope for not having already done it.  

The more I think about this the more I like it. Work with BAL from a position of strength.

Devin Williams/ESmall/TyTaylor/pieces if needed for----> Mayo/Povich/CMcDermott/pieces if needed

TBlack up on opening day and PHenry-esque backup (or Caratini or Quero or free agent to be the other catcher)

---Burnes, Peralta, AAshby, Houser, Gasser to start with CRod, CMcDermtt, Povich, Misi waiting in the wings (WMiley, Rea, JTeheran could be picked up again)

---Payamps, AUribe, Peguro, Hoby, McGill, Thyago and others like Blalock, McKendry, Junk, Yeager, or the like.

---Canha (for a year till Wilken is ready), Monty, Turang, Adames, TBlack, Contreras, another catcher, Owen Miller (till Mayo is ready)

---Yelich, Sal, GMitchell, Wiemer, and BPerkins (till JChurio is ready)

Pick up a Kris Bryant-type in July as the payroll will be lower with the kids coming up.

This scenario is a lot closer to who we are than bigger deals.

 

[jay87shot]

On 10/15/2023 at 5:21 AM, BrewerFan said:

Are we suggesting Abel or Painter for Burnes AND Williams or is this just Williams?

I suggested Williams because I thought it might push a team over the top on a trade for a pitcher of that caliber, but if you're saying just for Williams, this kinda feels like the Hader proposals all over again.

Painter was the top pitching prospect in Baseball before TJ this past year(which...we all know is relatively safe and he's on his way back from). He's kinda like how we hope Misiorowski develops. Triple Digit velo, carries it deep, 65 command, 3 potential plus pitching... and Abel isn't far behind.

 

Those are the exact pitchers I'd be targeting. Just one of them and then a couple lottery tickets for Burnes+Williams, but again, I don't think we get anywhere near that for just Williams.

This as well. We traded Hader...who was a better, more dominant reliever for Gasser...who's developed into a fringe top 100 pitcher, and Ruiz who's a nice player, and we got lucky that the As wanted him involved in the Contreras trade(and then Rogers who became redundant and Lamet who was a salary dump), but looking at that package, it doesn't approximate the value of a top ~25 power hitting 3B prospect with a 70 arm.

 

I think if we trade them individually, we should probably prepare ourselves for an underwhelming return for Williams. 

I'd be happy if the Rangers sent up Lieter for Williams. He pitches in an incredibly hitter friendly league, has big time stuff, was a top 100 prospect and could slide in as a top of the rotation type pitcher...after the "lab," goes to work on him, or Porter. 

But hey, if we can get any of these packages for Williams and then turn around and give Uribe a Aaron Ashby type contract extension. Make it 6 years 24M and 2 option years(say 10/14 for inflation) and I think we're better off in the short term and better off in the long term. He is a guy who only signed for 85K, so...certainly has ample reason to jump at the potential of 24M guaranteed while the Brewers get their closer through his prime years(and you increase his trade value if you're looking to do something down the road).

Don't forget Hader's trade value went down a ton because his ERA was like 5 at the time we traded him. Williams has a value just about the same as Hader before Hader imploded in July 22'. We also got Taylor Rogers who was a quality closer before his own problems, he would gave been worth a quality 3rd prospect instead.

Williams has a 24 value on the trade simulator (which I hate) which is the same as Misi straight up or a package of Black, Lara, and Aeienamo. Also with a lack of great bullpen options I would guess there is even more demand for a high end closer making him closer to a 30 value in my opinion.

Also 1 trade simulator thing that upset me. Abner Uribe is listed at a 4 value, Luis Medina (who we cut in Sept., I believe) has a 5.7 value.

[nate82]

48 minutes ago, jay87shot said:

Also 1 trade simulator thing that upset me. Abner Uribe is listed at a 4 value, Luis Medina (who we cut in Sept., I believe) has a 5.7 value.

The values on the sight haven’t been updated since the end of August I believe.  Should see a decrease for Burnes, Woodruff and Adames with an increase for Uribe and others.  

[BrewerFan]

5 hours ago, jay87shot said:

Don't forget Hader's trade value went down a ton because his ERA was like 5 at the time we traded him. Williams has a value just about the same as Hader before Hader imploded in July 22'. We also got Taylor Rogers who was a quality closer before his own problems, he would gave been worth a quality 3rd prospect instead.

Williams has a 24 value on the trade simulator (which I hate) which is the same as Misi straight up or a package of Black, Lara, and Aeienamo. Also with a lack of great bullpen options I would guess there is even more demand for a high end closer making him closer to a 30 value in my opinion.

Also 1 trade simulator thing that upset me. Abner Uribe is listed at a 4 value, Luis Medina (who we cut in Sept., I believe) has a 5.7 value.

I don't think that's true. I think for the year or two leading up to the Hader trade, there were people using Chapman as a comp and there were a LOT more people saying...those people were expecting way too much and that was an outlier. 

I don't think you turn two years of a reliever(even a really good one) into a 19 year old who while he did undergo TJ, a relatively normal procedure now, but a 19 year old with a FB that hits 100, elite command, a plus slider and then a good change and at least an average 4th pitch. 

That's a future ace.

I also wasn't using the trade simulator, I don't think it's accurate, so...that doesn't seem relevant, beyond the fact that you're likely citing it because it shows a pretty significant disparity in Painter's value and Wiliams(or even Abel).