Very Early 2024 Roster Discussion

[MoreTrife]

Let's continue this vicious cycle and forget our woes. Roster next year:

P: Woody (very team friendly extension), Burners (lose him for nothing after season for last shot), Peralta, Rea, Miley (getting old but maybe), Houser, Uribe, Payamps, Peguero, Megill, Williams, Milner, Wilson

C: Contreras and Caratini

1st: NEED

2nd: Black or Turang

SS: Turang or NEED

3rd: NEED and Monasterio

OF: Yelich, Taylor, Chourio, ONE of Mitchell, Weimer and Frelick (very concerning end of year for Frelick as someone with elite hit tool)

DH: NEED

LET GO

Tellez

Santana (Too old)

Donaldson (Too old and ineffective)

Adames (too many holes in swing, too expensive for production)

Winker (obviously)

 

So huge holes all over the diamond. I expect a creative trade from Arnold to fill either 3rd base, SS or 1st base. DH free agent. Lot of interesting pieces in the minors. 

 

[brewers888]

I would definitely trade Burnes as long as someone is willing to give us at least a decent return. With Adames probably not having much value on the market we will probably be forced to bring him back for one last season because Turang just cannot be handed the shortstop position until he shows something with the bat.

We will probably be looking at a similar roster next season hoping to win a weak division but having no real chance of winning the world series.  

[TPlush]

100% no discussion Burnes needs to be traded. The Central/wild card is still winnable without him. Dealing Burnes can net 3-4 good prospects, likely 1-2 top 50/100 prospects. Our farm needs it. 0% chance of him extending in Milwaukee, deal him for the long term health of the organization.

[benji]

The starters will be interesting. My assumption is Burnes is traded and Woody recovering from surgery. My guess Woody wouldn't pitch in majors until August if surgery and recovery works.

 

You would have Freddy Houser Gasser Ashby (unknown how he will be) maybe Miley (cant expect more than 120 innings) . Rea has to be resigned. Carlos Rodriguez in June? Who knows who they add or trade for with the OF surplus.

[brewers888]

I think Miley pitched so well that he priced himself out of Milwaukee. He will likely land a one or two year deal for at least 10 million per season and we certainly won't be the team giving that to him.

[homer]

I kind of hope they leave Chourio in AAA to start the year but at some point he's getting called up which means a log jam in the outfield. I think they will trade some minor leaguers and/or young guys to bolster the roster. Some combination of Quero, Black, Wiemer, Mitchell/Frelick etc. could net some talent. Gasser can probably fill a pitching slot. If they trade Burnes they'll net some more talent. I think it should be an interesting off-season. 

[jerichoholicninja]

Really, all this great pitching we've had has gotten us nowhere. Might as well trade Burnes and/or Woodruff, personally I'd move Devin too as I don't think he's anywhere as good as his numbers, and try something different. 

[TPlush]

5 minutes ago, jerichoholicninja said:

Really, all this great pitching we've had has gotten us nowhere. Might as well trade Burnes and/or Woodruff, personally I'd move Devin too as I don't think he's anywhere as good as his numbers, and try something different. 

This hasn't been discussed much, but I'd deal Williams for any sort of overpay at this point. He has the reputation as a top 3 closer in MLB, we have 2 years of control left, reliever performance is unpredictable, and near-0 chance he resigns in Milwaukee. (prepares to be roasted) A similar type of deal as the Hader trade, but ideally more young, controllable assets and less Taylor Rogers/Lamet would be nice. 4 decent prospects for Williams should be a pretty easy "yes" for Arnold.

[Harold Hutchison]

C: Contreras

1B: Yelich

2B: Monasterio

3B: Tyler Black

SS: Adames

LF: Frelick

CF: Mitchell

RF: Taylor

DH: Canha

Bench: Caratini, Miller, Toro, Perkins

Rotation: Burnes, Peralta, Ashby, Houser, Miley

Bullpen: Uribe, Megill, Payamps, Peguero, Milner, Small, B. Wilson, Rea

Probably the best 26-man the Crew can get in-house, given Woodruff's injury. Given the state of the farm, I think it may be better to go the QO route with Adames and Burnes.

OTOH, I think the Crew could get some good help by putting Devin Williams on the market. It's probably time to move on from Tellez and some others.

[DHonks]

This is always a tough conversation.  I'll start with the new guys:

• Donaldson- liked his hard hits, power potential.  I doubt he'd sign for around $2.5M, but if he did I'd love it.  
• Santana- clearly the best defensive 1b we've had in a long time.  Had some timely hits and part of rallies.  Would kind of like him back short term if the price is right
• Canha- Really a good fit for us.  He's OBP, he's doubles and homers, he's good at bats.  Most of our lineup is light on power.  Just not sure we can afford him.

Now on the others:

• Burnes pretty much needs to be traded.  I always said I wanted to sign Woody and trade Burnes walk due to repertoire, age (aka, expected cost and willingness to sign extension), previous conflict with organization.
• Yelich-  massive bounce back year, but now the question is was this the start of things to come or a fluke?  If back, needs to return to 3/4 spot in lineup.  Also needs to be moved out of the OF, or at least limited to only 20-40 games out there.  I would consider trading him if he can add value to a trade (with Burnes?), but I don't want to dump him.  I'd like to see him in the old Edgar Martinez or David Ortiz role as full-time DH. 
• Adames- thought he'd be traded for sure, but his stats are sort of a conundrum.  He plays great Defense, has power, has doubles.  His OBP is weak and strikeouts are high given his power isn't elite. I thought Turang would take over at SS after his improved July/August, but now I'm not so sure.  We may bring Willy back.
• Tellez- Really not sure.  He offers something we lack--power.  We have no real 1b prospect.  I'd consider him, Canha, or Santana if the price is right
• Mitchell, Frelick, Taylor, Perkins, Wiemer, Chourio- We have great depth.  Right now it depends on if they keep Yelich in the OF, Canha, etc. Also, could anyone shift to 1b?  Some of these guys should be in AAA for more seasoning.  Frelick showed a lot, but perhaps wouldn't hurt to have more AAA time.  Wiemer showed a lot, but needs some sustained AAA success after basically skipping the level.  I'd like to open 2024 with Perkins LF, Mitchell CF, Taylor RF (unless his elbow might need surgery).  In this scenario we'd need a token 4th OF that fills the role until deciding to recall one of the others.  We could also go with Frelick on the roster and simply have a nice rotation 4-5 deep in the OF
• Monasterio- added a nice element of putting the ball in play and line drives that this team sometimes lacked.  I'd consider him for 2b it Turang moves to SS.  
• D. Williams- I don't want to load up on prospects, but given the success of the power arms, I wonder if we could get a nice return for him.  This is the point in his career when the Rays would look to trade him, as they often trade studs earlier than other franchises in order to maximize return and roster churn. 
• Can we sign Contreras to a long-term deal?!?!?

[DHonks]

24 minutes ago, TPlush said:

This hasn't been discussed much, but I'd deal Williams for any sort of overpay at this point. 

I included this as well in my thoughts.  This is the point when the Rays would trade him.  And with what Payamps, Peguero, McGill, Uribe, etc have shown, it gives hope the bullpen will continue as a strength.  I'd like Williams and Yelich back, but this could be peak return for them.  

[bobahunter]

I think a lot is hanging on what happens with the head coach situation. Majority belief is that Counsell is gone. But, if Counsell wants to stay then I think we get a lot of what we've seen over the last few off seasons. Plugging holes with 1 year veterans, not going with a bunch of rookies to start the year. If he moves on there is a lot more to think about. Would they hand the reins to Murphy? Look inside the organization? Look for a known coaching entity? Go in an entirely different direction? But I think construction of 2024 doesn't start until they figure out what the coaching staff looks like for the next era.

[DHonks]

Just now, bobahunter said:

not going with a bunch of rookies to start the year

Not sure why this is said.  We had several years with NO offensive prospects.  This year we opened with rookies in CF, RF (a day after opening day), and 2b.  We have talent on the doorstep, and so we used it.  Counsell never had anything against rookies, we previously lacked talented rookies.

[wibadgers23]

12 minutes ago, DHonks said:

I'd like to open 2024 with Perkins LF, Mitchell CF, Taylor RF (unless his elbow might need surgery).

That’s a little bit of a depressing outfield to be honest. If that is really the direction they go to begin the year, hopefully it’s not long before we see Chourio and Frelick.

[MrTPlush]

Adames - He will be back because he doesn’t have trade value. If he has a great first half he can always get flipped.

Woodruff - Also likely to be back, in my opinion. Injury riddled year and ended the year injured. Can’t imagine the trade value is great. But maybe we can get a good offer.

Burnes- Trade him or don’t…idk. I just expect a bunch of whining when the return is nowhere near what some are expecting.

 

[bobahunter]

13 minutes ago, DHonks said:

Not sure why this is said.  We had several years with NO offensive prospects.  This year we opened with rookies in CF, RF (a day after opening day), and 2b.  We have talent on the doorstep, and so we used it.  Counsell never had anything against rookies, we previously lacked talented rookies.

I certainly get that and I was excited for them to get their chance. I just don't think they will push this year's rookie class aside and have a new crop of rookies starting right away 2 years in a row. I could certainly see in May/June. Of course this is if Counsell hypothetically stays. If he's gone then they could certainly go that direction.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Every decision starts with 1A and 1B, Counsell and Burnes. I think everything you do depends on what happens with those two, and I do think they're largely independent of each other. I don't think Counsell staying means Burnes is necessarily more likely to, FWIW.

I would definitely trade Burnes. I just can't see an argument for keeping him, given a) arb cost, b) contract expiring, c) no chance to re-sign, and d) massive need for immediate 2024 offensive production. I doubt Burnes is worth a huge haul, but he should net you something like a MLB-ready, league-average bat with a couple years of team control, maybe something more. Of course, this team got Contreras for basically Esteury Ruiz, so maybe there's some magic out there too.

The starting pitching is going to be a massive question mark. How serious is Woody's injury? Is Ashby ready, or even healthy? Can Houser continue to be a consistent depth option toward the back of the rotation? Do we get first half Freddy or second half Freddy? Is 10 million worth it for Miley? Can we get anything at all from Misiorowski, Rodriquez, or Gasser?

I have no idea on those questions. You're basically going into the offseason knowing 2 of your starting pitchers. That's....interesting.

While I see the argument for trading Devin (and wouldn't be opposed to it on principle), it's going to have to be a huge haul. When baseball seasons go bad, a shaky bullpen is usually a big part of the cause. With all the question marks all over the other parts of the roster, I'd bet on Peguero, Payamps, and Williams being good enough to hold most late-inning leads. Williams is the safest bet of those three, with the longest track record. With a young team, I want no part of a bunch of deflating, late-lead losses.

Offensively, Adames is a 3-win player who is probably more valuable to you than anyone else. Hope for a bounce back year, and accept your best case might be a QO and subsequent draft pick compensation.

I'd bring Santana back if the price is right. Canha, no. Too expensive, not enough of a difference maker anyway. I'm not into the Donaldson show. Dude looks pretty washed to me, despite hitting a few dingers that stood out because nobody else was doing it. I'm all in on Black starting with the big club. Let's see what he's got. 

What do we do with all our outfielders? Yelich is going to get starts in left, but probably not as many. Mitchell, Frelick, Weimer, Taylor, even Perkins has some value. Chourio is coming. That's 7 guys for 4 or 5 roster spots. Probably can keep Weimer and Chuorio at AAA early, but for how long? 

You probably need a backup catcher unless you're ready to go with Quero.

Basically, I think there are a lot of good ways to build on this roster, and I'm looking forward to the offseason. It'll be fun to see this take shape. The pieces are there. 

 

[nate82]

28 minutes ago, DHonks said:

included this as well in my thoughts.  This is the point when the Rays would trade him.  And with what Payamps, Peguero, McGill, Uribe, etc have shown, it gives hope the bullpen will continue as a strength.  I'd like Williams and Yelich back, but this could be peak return for them.  

I think Williams is more likely to be traded this off season than Burnes will be as I don't believe the Brewers will get offers that they will deem as appropriate for Burnes.  I think at best you are looking at a 1 75-100 prospect and a low level prospect in return.  So something like Mauricio and Clifford from the Mets. 

If you think the Brewers are going to get a top 50 prospect for Burnes you are setting yourself up for disappointment it is not going to happen. 

[jay87shot]

I think a lot of this is going to depend on Woody's shoulder, if it is the worst possible news and he is out for the year I probably would approach the offseason differently. I would be more inclined to keep Burnes and be more creative in adding a bat.

Trade = 1)Burnes for a mlb ready starter or IF and a couple prospects  2) 1 reliever depending on return I would sell high on Payamps, Wilson, or Williams (maybe even 2 if we got some interesting arms back), I would try and get the overall best prospect here regardless of age 3) get 1 mlb high end bat, I doubt we can sign anyone that would be a good middle of the order bat but we need a guaranteed consistent run producer in the lineup, to a degree Quero is blocked and we will have 5-6 quality OF, so trading from that depth is logical to me.

Sign= 1) Miley or cheaper quality vet arm 2)1 of Canha/Santana, I am a little torn over Canha's option 1/9.5 or Santana 1/5, Santana is a better 1B, has more power, and would be cheaper, or Canha has a little more versitility and is a more consitent hitter. 3)Backup catcher, Caratini would be ideal but my guys is he gets like 2/10 somewhere and that is to expensive for our backup, I don't mind bringing in a couple vets on minor league deals and having them compete with Henry, Naveretto, and maybe Quero. 4)Under the radar minor league deal big arms, management has been killing it finding guys like Wilson, Megill, Milner even some guys that were in our org that just were depth pieces are killing it like Topa and others.

Non-tender=Lauer, Rowdy   I wouldn't mind either on a non-guaranteed minor league deal that has incentives but Rowdy needs to get in shape and Lauer needs a lot of help.

Free Agents= Don't take the throw 5 darts at the board approach, the past couple years we have signed like 4-5 guys to 1/2-5 million dollar deals and they haven't worked out. I would much rather get 1 guy for 10-20 million even if there is still some risk.

 

[jay87shot]

A couple people have brought up that they don't think that a Burnes trade return won't be as high as we are expecting, it could be but we should make out well. A half year of Giolito (and Lopez) got a 50-75 ranked prospect and a 5-10 ranked org. prospect, Burnes is head and shoulder above Giolito and would have a full year. There are going to be a ton of quality arms on the market but just about every decent team could use an arm or three. Worst case I would wait until the deadline when the supply and demand is better. One thing I know is that our management does a good job of squeezing out value in trade returns.

 

[liveforoctober]

3 hours ago, brewers888 said:

I would definitely trade Burnes as long as someone is willing to give us at least a decent return. With Adames probably not having much value on the market we will probably be forced to bring him back for one last season because Turang just cannot be handed the shortstop position until he shows something with the bat.

We will probably be looking at a similar roster next season hoping to win a weak division but having no real chance of winning the world series.  

Lol, you are awesome.

[Ro Mueller]

My offseason prediction is largely a boring, run-it-back scenario:

• No blockbuster offseason trades, as we'd rather have Burnes, Woodruff and Adames around for four months to maximize wins, ticket sales and advance stadium renovation bill
• Rare mutual option pick-up for Miley (it just works, even at $10m)
• Immediate re-signing of Santana, whose BB/K ratio appears to make him a better option than other highly-rated defenders (e.g. Cooper, Belt, Cron)
• Immediate re-signing of Caratini, who’s likely more valuable to Burnes/Brewers than anyone else, even if he only threw out 14% of baserunners
• Surprise re-signing of Donaldson, who had one of the highest HR/AB ratios in all of baseball, plays solid 3B and has a passing BB/K ratio
• Provided we're serious about dealing with our power deficiency: sign DH/1B Brandon Belt, essentially replacing Mark Canha and Rowdy Tellez. If we're not serious, Ji-Man Choi is a buy-low option
• Barring key injuries, Black and Gasser would start the season in AAA
• Add Quero, McKendry and Blalock before Rule 5 Draft
• Bye bye to Canha (decline option), Lauer (too expensive), Rea (FA seeking to maximize contract), Ruf (FA), Winker (FA), Chafin (decline), Justin Wilson (decline), Boushley (non-tender), Jahmai Jones (NT), Janson Junk (NT), Toro (trade for lottery ticket)
• Complete 40-man MLB roster by cheap signings: 1 starting pitcher, 2 relief pitchers, a #3 catcher and an optionable 2B/SS

[TURBO]

6 hours ago, nate82 said:

 

If you think the Brewers are going to get a top 50 prospect for Burnes you are setting yourself up for disappointment it is not going to happen. 

I'd take that bet.

As Brewers fans, we are sour on him at the moment.  Other teams would love to have him, he was a Cy Young winner only a couple years ago.  He's relatively young, and the talent is there.  There is going to be a team (Dodgers, Mets, Padres) that thinks they can bring the Cy Young back into his game, and they are probably right.

I don't think we are going to get the massive haul that we all thought we were going to get a year ago, but I still expect a decent haul, probably a top 30 or better, and some other pieces.  If not, and the Brewers decide to hang onto him, so be it.  I don't want to give him away.  That can always be revaluated at next year's deadline.

[TURBO]

I am hoping that we sign Santana to a one year deal, unless of course, they have a bigger bat in mind via trade.  Santana is heads and shoulders better than anything else we have thrown at 1B.  I'm done with Rowdy.

[duewizard]

6 hours ago, nate82 said:

I think Williams is more likely to be traded this off season than Burnes will be as I don't believe the Brewers will get offers that they will deem as appropriate for Burnes.  I think at best you are looking at a 1 75-100 prospect and a low level prospect in return.  So something like Mauricio and Clifford from the Mets. 

If you think the Brewers are going to get a top 50 prospect for Burnes you are setting yourself up for disappointment it is not going to happen. 

As someone else said, Giolito is way worse and was sold for more than you suggest.

I think we can get 1 Top 100, 1 Org Top 5-10 and another piece. Maybe a lotto ticket or a Junk type, And that would be the minimum