Brandon Woodruff has shoulder surgery

[owbc]

This isn't a pretty situation. They shouldn't offer Woody arbitration if he isn't going to pitch in 2024. But it would suck to release someone of his caliber who is rehabbing. I agree with the idea to offer 2/25. The Brewers have some leverage here so it might not even take that much cash. 

[Brewcrew82]

Just now, adambr2 said:

You're not DFAing him, you're just not offering him arbitration and making him a FA. Which he is going to be after next year anyway. So the alternative is literally just to pay him to do nothing next year and then become a free agent anyway.  I don't know how that's better given our already limited resources. 

Yeah, I meant non-tendering him. What I'm saying is the team should work hard to get him to push back his FA by a year. 

[adambr2]

Just now, Brewcrew82 said:

Yeah, I meant non-tendering him. What I'm saying is the team should work hard to get him to push back his FA by a year. 

I mean they can try, I just don't know if he'd accept and if he doesn't, I don't know what the point would be of retaining him. 

Maybe you could offer him $12M next season with team options of $15M in 2025 and $20M in 2026 with buyouts of $3M and $5M to give us some incentive to keep him around and buy him at least 15-20M in guarantees if things don't work out. 

[StearnsFTW]

23 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

I have little interest in DFAing Woody. Makes the organization look bad after all he's done and you lose one of your foundation pieces for nothing. 

And I get that point of view.

 

I'd still do it though.

[adambr2]

Here's the cold reality if you don't trust Woodruff to ever be effective again:

You either make some pretty significant additions via FA/trade and maybe push the payroll to 140-150M and keep Burnes and try to really make a run next year, or you embrace a rebuild.

I'd be happy with either of those things.  But not a "run it back" approach. 

[wibadgers23]

10 minutes ago, Brewcrew82 said:

Could maybe shed more light on Arnold's comments from the other day that he expects Burnes to be in the organization next season. 

On one hand, the Brewers could feel that Burnes, Peralta, and a bunch of question marks to go along with an iffy offense doesn't have much of a chance so might as well trade Burnes now and start a mini reset.  On the other hand, you're pretty much punting on the 2024 season if you trade Burnes, at least from the pitching side of things.

[DHonks]

I'd try to reach some sort of 2-3 year deal with Woodruff.  Like 2 years $18 million ($5 m in 2024, $13m in 2025).  Or 3 years $25 million ($5m 2024, $8m 2025, $12m 2026).  The Brewers would be giving up guaranteed money but he'd have financial certainty.  

[Brewcrew82]

7 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

I mean they can try, I just don't know if he'd accept and if he doesn't, I don't know what the point would be of retaining him. 

Maybe you could offer him $12M next season with team options of $15M in 2025 and $20M in 2026 with buyouts of $3M and $5M to give us some incentive to keep him around and buy him at least 15-20M in guarantees if things don't work out. 

At the same time, wouldn't Woody rather rehab with the Brewers and then hopefully return for a one year "prove it" period with the Brewers than be non-tendered and cast out to rehab on your own and then take your chances proving it for another team. If I were Woody, I would choose the money and the familiarity. 

[Brewcrew82]

7 minutes ago, wibadgers23 said:

On one hand, the Brewers could feel that Burnes, Peralta, and a bunch of question marks to go along with an iffy offense doesn't have much of a chance so might as well trade Burnes now and start a mini reset.  On the other hand, you're pretty much punting on the 2024 season if you trade Burnes, at least from the pitching side of things.

They contended this year and won the division without Woody for most of the season. In this division, they would seemingly have more than a reasonable chance of contending.

You always have the fallback to trade Burnes at the deadline if things go awry. A comp pick is also quite valuable. 

[titletownking]

27 minutes ago, adambr2 said:

You're not DFAing him, you're just not offering him arbitration and making him a FA. Which he is going to be after next year anyway. So the alternative is literally just to pay him to do nothing next year and then become a free agent anyway.  I don't know how that's better given our already limited resources. 

My point in a nutshell I guess. Only way I would pay him is with a 2 year deal for under 20 million or additional club control with buyout options. Brewers can’t afford to just pay him 1 year for nothing. 

[adambr2]

Is there anyone else that just kind of would rather embrace a 2 year rebuild at this point? Get something for Burnes while you still can. Be patient with your young OFers. Maybe shop Yelich around to a contender if he's willing to waive his NTC. They've got a pretty decent foundation in place in the farm especially if they can add a little more to it if they just be a little patient. 

[Brewcrew82]

1 minute ago, adambr2 said:

Is there anyone else that just kind of would rather embrace a 2 year rebuild at this point? Get something for Burnes while you still can. Be patient with your young OFers. Maybe shop Yelich around to a contender if he's willing to waive his NTC. They've got a pretty decent foundation in place in the farm especially if they can add a little more to it if they just be a little patient. 

I'd be fine with either direction they choose to go in. There's good arguments for both. 

[owbc]

1 minute ago, adambr2 said:

Is there anyone else that just kind of would rather embrace a 2 year rebuild at this point? Get something for Burnes while you still can. Be patient with your young OFers. Maybe shop Yelich around to a contender if he's willing to waive his NTC. They've got a pretty decent foundation in place in the farm especially if they can add a little more to it if they just be a little patient. 

They can get quite a bit worse and still make the playoffs. Presumably the Reds will be a hot pick to win the Central in 2023 but that's far from certain and the wild cards will be sitting there for the taking. Building a team with an upper-80s win ceiling isn't the worst idea in the world, especially if it depends on someone like Chourio coming up and having an immediate impact similar to Julio Rodriguez and Corbin Carroll.

I'm still in favor of trading Burnes, I think can make the playoffs anyway. 

[nate82]

Just now, adambr2 said:

Is there anyone else that just kind of would rather embrace a 2 year rebuild at this point? Get something for Burnes while you still can. Be patient with your young OFers. Maybe shop Yelich around to a contender if he's willing to waive his NTC. They've got a pretty decent foundation in place in the farm especially if they can add a little more to it if they just be a little patient. 

Not sure how patient the Brewers can be as Chourio and Black will be in year-1 in AAA next year.  Gasser already has a 1+ years in AAA so he should be ready.  That leaves Misio, Quero, Rodriguez (RHP) and Wilken as the prospects the Brewers would be waiting on next and they are all in AA and AAA and then you also have Brown. Wilken probably starts out in AA but Misio, Quero and Rodriguez all probably start out in AAA.  That AAA roster is already getting packed and you have to keep some organizational guys in there to move up and down from AAA - MLB club for injuries.  This isn't even taking into consideration what you would be getting back for Burnes. 

 

28 minutes ago, DHonks said:

I'd try to reach some sort of 2-3 year deal with Woodruff.  Like 2 years $18 million ($5 m in 2024, $13m in 2025).  Or 3 years $25 million ($5m 2024, $8m 2025, $12m 2026).  The Brewers would be giving up guaranteed money but he'd have financial certainty.  

If you go more than 2-years I think you have to throw in the won't offer a QO after the third year type of a deal.

[wallus]

I am guessing this is the end for Woody with the Crew. This seems like a situation the Dodgers will take advantage of. 

It's time to do a quick rebuild and trade Burnes, Adames and Williams. 

[phnxcrew]

I like the idea of an extension and would add options that kick in for 2026&2027 based upon 2025 innings pitched.  There is a way this situation can lead to a much higher ceiling team in 2025 and beyond if you are now prompted to deal Williams, burnes and adames.  Small payrolls mean you have to take risks on aces like this.  If everything falls apart in 2025 that 20 million will have plenty of room in a rebuild.  

[dlk9s]

Is it all possible - and bear with me here - that Woodruff's recovery could turn into a Rookie of the Year situation and he returns throwing heat more blazing than anyone has ever witnessed?

[TURBO]

2024 is gone, when he comes back in 2025, is there even a remote chance he is effective?  I can see 2025 being a lost year as well.  Low innings, babying that injured shoulder, in hopes that 2026 he can be 100% back in business.

As much as I hate to say it, 2024 and 2025 seem like lost years, so why put that kind of money into the guy.  I'd let him rehab with us in 2024 because he has earned it, but putting millions upon millions of dollars into a guy that probably won't help us for another 2 years seems foolish to me, unless he really takes a big hometown discount.

[Lathund]

Could view this either as making it imperative to keep Burnes for another run, or the exact opposite and focusing entirely on transitioning to the next Brewers team with the young position player core by trading Burnes (and Williams, and maybe others). I'm in the latter camp. Let's see Gasser and Black from day 1. Chourio, Rodriguez and others soon enough. Along with all the existing rookies, and perhaps some players from the Burnes/Williams trades. A team full of 1st and 2nd year players could likely mean a step back, but sometimes it's also unexpectedly good (Like the Reds this year). Either way, I think it'd be a fun team. 

As for Woody, add me to the list of those in favor of a multi-year type of deal, But it'd have to be one with some kind of option/incentive structure, just a straight up big guarantee after 2024 seems too risky. 

[Fear The Chorizo]

I'm not offering any sort of longterm deal to a pitcher on the wrong side of 30 who just had shoulder surgery and will likely miss all of 2024, on top of the fact he just missed most of 2023.  It sucks, but the Brewers simply need to not offer him arbitration and wish Woodruff well, and realize they got his prime years of performance.  Even with the advances in surgical procedures, pitching injuries and assuming guys make full recoveries are sketchy at best.  

A 2 year prove it deal for $20-$25M also makes zero sense for the Brewers, because they then wind up paying him ~$10M to rehab.  If a different MLB team wants to give a guy with a bum shoulder a longterm contract to see how he looks at the start of 2025 as a 32 yr old, good for Woody getting that kind of guaranteed money.  It shouldn't come from the Brewers. 

I'm an advocate of not offering Woody arbitration and then using that salary savings to at least offer Burnes and Adames arbitration, then entertaining trade offers for both this offseason but also being willing to roll with them into next season - if they aren't contending, deal both at next season's deadline, or even a bit earlier if teams come a calling.  There should be plenty of teams chomping at the bit to trade for Burnes this offseason, but without Woodruff's $11M on their books the Brewers could afford to pay him his arby salary next year if that's the route they'd want to take - even if it's used as a slight bit of leverage to squeeze as much prospect value out of an organization that covets Burnes for a full regular season as possible.  Would enjoy the Orioles and Dodgers getting into a bidding war for Burnes this offseason with the young talent they could offer.

[Fear The Chorizo]

36 minutes ago, wallus said:

I am guessing this is the end for Woody with the Crew. This seems like a situation the Dodgers will take advantage of. 

It's time to do a quick rebuild and trade Burnes, Adames and Williams. 

The Dodgers do have a knack for signing a stable full of pitchers that keep surgeons busy

[adambr2]

19 minutes ago, TURBO said:

2024 is gone, when he comes back in 2025, is there even a remote chance he is effective?  I can see 2025 being a lost year as well.  Low innings, babying that injured shoulder, in hopes that 2026 he can be 100% back in business.

As much as I hate to say it, 2024 and 2025 seem like lost years, so why put that kind of money into the guy.  I'd let him rehab with us in 2024 because he has earned it, but putting millions upon millions of dollars into a guy that probably won't help us for another 2 years seems foolish to me, unless he really takes a big hometown discount.

I mean if you're going to let him rehab with us in '24 you may as well take a shot with a club option in '25. Otherwise you're just giving away free money next year with no incentive. 

[MrTPlush]

36 minutes ago, phnxcrew said:

I like the idea of an extension and would add options that kick in for 2026&2027 based upon 2025 innings pitched.  There is a way this situation can lead to a much higher ceiling team in 2025 and beyond if you are now prompted to deal Williams, burnes and adames.  Small payrolls mean you have to take risks on aces like this.  If everything falls apart in 2025 that 20 million will have plenty of room in a rebuild.  

He isn’t giving out team options past 2025, it makes no sense. Guy is going to bank on a decent to good 2025 and parlay it into a nice contract.

[markedman5]

Brewers don’t think this injury is related to the prior shoulder issue

https://www.mlb.com/news/brandon-woodruff-has-right-shoulder-surgery

[Outlander]

2/25 seems too much for a 2025 season that will be filled with question marks. 2/15 would be more than fair as it guarantees Woodruff some pretty good money even if he doesn't come back. If he is non tendered he is probably looking at a one year contract prove it deal anyway. Really too bad he can't get a big contract until his age 33 season.